MLB DFS 2022: Opening Day Salary Releases

Well, look at what we have here. MLB Opening Day is finally in the air. After a slight lockout-caused delay, we are finally back on track and set for the first pitch of the MLB regular season to take place Thursday, April 7. With that being that case, who would I be if I wasn’t taking an early first look at the DFS slate and player salaries? 

I am super pumped for the content we are going to have on a daily basis here at FTN Daily, and especially excited to have the MLB DFS optimizer for the entirety of the season. There are lots to look forward to, and if you are along for the ride here at FTN we appreciate your support, and if you are new, welcome. Let’s make Opening Day the first of many great ones here in the FTN streets, and let’s start it off with an early look at the slate. 

Right off the bat, there is a major difference between the main slate on both sites. FanDuel is rolling out a larger nine-game slate, with games starting at 1:05 and 2:20 p.m. ET. DraftKings, on the other hand, is holding off on the first two games and starting their slate at 4:05 p.m. ET with a seven-game main slate. 

Let’s begin with the pitchers on this Opening Day slate. 

Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, always make sure your pitcher is a confirmed starter rather than a projected starter when listed in an article on any day, but especially on one that is being written almost a week early. 

First, let’s talk about the top options. Opening Day means we are getting the teams’ aces, and I love talking about stud pitchers. 

Max Scherzer, New York Mets

($10.7K DK, $10.8K FD)

The new Met is likely one of the most talented pitchers who is on both slates, maybe the most. It’s worth noting that Max Scherzer has been dealing with a hamstring injury, so there’s a chance he’ll be monitored in this one — getting word on exactly how significantly monitored he will be will go a long way. However, it is likely that a very large portion of pitchers are going to be limited early on in the season anyway. That is just how it is every year, and considering spring training got off to a delayed start, that may be even more true this year. The Nationals — and every other NL team — are going to have an improved lineup this year thanks to the now-universal designated hitter, and Washington is going to fill that role with slugger Nelson Cruz. Despite that upgrade, this lineup still has some holes at the end of it, and it is still Max Scherzer. 

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

($8.3K DK, $10.4K FD)

When I mentioned Scherzer was one of the best pitchers on the slate, Shane Bieber was definitely his biggest contender in that realm. At their current levels, I will take Bieber, but both guys are very obviously studs. Bieber is coming off a massively disappointing 2021. He ended the season on the 60-day IL with a shoulder strain, and I’m sure Cleveland didn’t feeling it necessary to rush the star pitcher back, given they were out of contention very early on. Bieber was quoted in March saying that he has “been 100% for a while now.” That bodes well for him, but it is also difficult to expect him to not be limited on Opening Day — not only because of last year’s injury but again, because a lot of pitchers are early on in the season. That said, Bieber is still absolutely in play here unless we hear he is going to have extreme limitations. In 2021, Bieber saw declines in almost every major stat, specifically his power prevention and strikeout numbers. However, I am willing to chalk that up to the injury that he dealt with for a lot of the season. Looking at his 2020 Cy Young campaign shows how elite Bieber can be — a 40% K-rate combined with a very impressive 29% hard-contact rate and a 48% ground-ball rate. Even when pitchers are healthy, it is tough to register that kind of strikeout upside and maintain such strong power prevention. Bieber is the best of the best and this Kansas City team has some free swingers in its lineup. If Bieber even gets to the fifth inning, it is highly possible that we are looking at a joke of a price from DraftKings, who made arguably the best pitcher in baseball cheaper than the likes of Chris Flexen, Sonny Gray and Cleveland teammates Aaron Civale and Cal Quantrill. 

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

($11.2K FD)

I can’t think of Corbin Burnes without getting all giddy. I was thrilled to see him win the NL Cy Young last year (largely thanks to the ticket I placed on him early on in the season thanks to Josh Gross of FTNBets), but also because of how good he is and how impressive the strides he took from 2018-19 to 2020 were, and in 2021 he only continued his rapid improvements. He is only on the FanDuel slate, where he is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but a matchup against the rebuilding Chicago Cubs for the reigning Cy Young winner does sound awfully deserving of the expensive price tag. 

Like Bieber, there are some other notable options who are expensive on FanDuel but stand out as awfully cheap on DraftKings:

• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (10.5K FD, $7K DK) — Last year’s AL MVP is making his first Opening Day start. Tough matchup, but we know the strikeout upside is there with Ohtani in any spot.
• Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners ($9.9K FD, $6.3K DK) — Seriously, what are some of these prices by DraftKings? At first, I thought it was just their structure at the start of the year, but it turns out it is just clear pricing inefficiencies. For example, Ray, last year’s AL Cy Young winner who had a 32% K-rate, is cheaper than the following names: Teammate Marco Gonzales, JT Brubaker, Adam Wainwright, Kris Bubic, Reid Detmers and the owner of a 6.44 ERA and a 2-7 record in 11 starts, Logan Allen. 

Someone on DraftKings fell asleep at the wheel, and while these guys aren’t “spend up” options on DraftKings, they should be closer to that tier than the ones they currently sit in, that’s for sure. 

Some other pitching options that are a bit cheaper (although some not even cheaper than Ray or Ohtani on DraftKings) include:

• Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins ($7.7K FD, $7.2K DK) — The matchup is one that’ll be tougher after the Mariners went out and acquired Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suárez and Adam Frazier, and potentially gets even scarier if elite prospect Julio Rodríguez makes the opening day roster, but I am a believer in Ryan’s stuff, and we saw him get the job done consistently last year when given big league innings. 
• Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals ($8K FD, $7.5K DK) — I poked fun at his price earlier in the article, but that isn’t to say he’s too expensive, just that others are too cheap. We all know the Pirates are quite bad, and that shouldn’t change much this year. Waino was also very good at home last year, and while he might not bring massive strikeout-upside, he does feel fairly safe in this matchup. 

Hitters

Time to talk about the initial bats and stacks that stick out. As always on Opening Day, you might have a harder time uncovering the better matchups for hitters because after all, we are typically getting each team’s best pitcher, unless injury or other circumstances pop up for the team’s ace. Now, with that said, there is a chance that we get Patrick Corbin as an opening day starter and that pretty quickly jumps out as a nice place to start, at least with a couple of individual hitters. 

Pete Alonso, New York Mets (and teammates)

($3.6K FD, $4.8K DK)

So the gist of this matchup here is that Patrick Corbin was downright terrible against righties last year, and Pete Alonso happens to be a superhero, especially against LHPs. Last season alone, Alonso posted ridiculous numbers against southpaws — .342 ISO, .389 wOBA and a 50% fly-ball% while making hard contact over 43% of the time in over 175 at-bats. Those numbers are hard to top. We are a week out, and if we do indeed see Corbin starting, I am guaranteeing an Opening Day home run from Alonso. With that said, you can also round out quite an interesting stack with the Mets, especially some of their newly acquired RHHs: Eduardo Escobar (switch hitter, but would be hitting right-handed with Corbin on the mound), Mark Canha and Starling Marte. 

St. Louis Cardinals

We don’t have a projected starter for the Pirates just yet, but there are some rumors circulating around the possibility of newly acquired José Quintana drawing the start. Quintana flashed at times last year, but generally got absolutely destroyed by RHHs, something that the Cardinals lineup is not short on. If it were to be Quintana, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado would make for one of my favorite stacks. Last year, all three posted ISOs above .327 along with wOBAs over .403 against LHPs. This will be such a great spot for those three considering Quintana allowed a .239 ISO and .422 wOBA while struggling to keep the ball on the ground and giving up hard contact over 50% of the time. This brings us to my second way too early HR call, Goldschmidt. If you are full stacking, don’t forget Yadier Molina and Dylan Carlson as well, as both had success against southpaws last year. If Quintana isn’t starting on Opening Day, keep this in mind in case he is starting any of the following games against St. Louis. 

San Diego Padres

It looks like Madison Bumgarner will get the Opening Day start once again for Arizona. Unfortunately, the Padres will be without Fernando Tatis Jr., but they still have a few big RH bats to take advantage of MadBum’s immense struggles against righties. Last season, Bumgarner allowed a .198 ISO, a 44.6% flyball%, and a 42% hard-contact rate to righties last year. Those kinds of numbers are going to lead to trouble preventing power, and for the Padres a few power RHHs who stand out, like Manny Machado, Wil Myers and newly acquired Luke Voit. You can also round out your stacks with Austin Nola and Ha-Seong Kim to provide some salary relief as well. 

Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Guardians

($3.1K FD, $4.5K DK)

Finally, that brings up to Home Run Call No. 3, and if you have been following my baseball content for any amount of time you will not flinch for a second at this prediction: Franmil Reyes takes Zack Greinke deep on Opening Day. We know the kind of power Reyes has — some of the purest raw power in baseball — and some of Greinke’s skills are deteriorating, which has been amplified against RHHs. Last season he allowed a .222 ISO and a .348 wOBA to righties while allowing hard contact on 43% of ABs. Greinke’s biggest strength over the last couple of years has been his ability to keep the ball on the ground, and while he is still doing that over 56% of the time to LHHs, against RHHs his ground ball rate sat at a lowly 36% in 2020. All of these things set up a great matchup for Reyes, one he should be able to take advantage of in an explosive way to start of the season. 

As always, make sure you are confirming lineups, especially starters. A lot of teams don’t even have projected pitchers yet, and only a handful of them have announced their Opening Day starter, so be sure you are confirming that not only for the pitching information but for the hitter’s matchups as well. Good luck this Opening Day, let’s have ourselves a great MLB season here at FTN.