Jackson, Henry, and Kittle Have All-Time DYAR Seasons in 2024

Each year since we were back at the old website, we’ve done a special Quick Reads at the end of the season to sum up the season’s individual stats. Last year was the year of the San Francisco 49ers, with 49ers setting all kinds of records all over the place. This year was the year of the Baltimore Ravens instead, with the Ravens coming out as the No. 4 offense in DVOA history. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry had historic seasons while the wide receivers also came out high and Mark Andrews was No. 2 among tight ends.

Remember that subscribers can find all the player stats for 2024 on the FTN StatsHub. You can also download a workbook with just 2024 stats or with all the numbers back to 1979 from the Historical DVOA Archive. 1978 has not been added yet; that’s coming in February or March.

For the sake of simplicity, I’m ignoring any pass receptions by quarterbacks or passes by non-quarterbacks in the numbers below.

Quarterbacks

For quarterbacks, I’m using a total that is adjusted to make rush DYAR 2.1x the value of pass DYAR, which reflects the fact that quarterback rushes are particularly efficient plays by Expected Points Added analysis and 1 DYAR rushing is worth about 2.1 DYAR passing.

Only three quarterbacks have put up an individual passing DVOA over 50% in a season. Peyton Manning did it twice, in 2004 and 2006. Tom Brady did it in 2007. Dan Marino did it back in 1984. That’s it. Lamar Jackson came very, very close to being the fourth quarterback to do this. He finishes the season with 49.7% passing DVOA. Add in his rushing value, and he had one of the 10 best quarterback seasons since 1978 by DYAR.

On the other hand, you had the Cleveland Browns.

It was a horrible year in Cleveland, as the Browns had one of the worst offenses in DVOA history. Jameis Winston was reasonable, but the other quarterbacks for the Browns were horrendous. The Browns announced this week that Watson has had a setback in his recovery from an Achilles injury, and honestly, they probably don’t mind too much.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Jordan Love, GB

Love had only a 63% completion rate that was near the bottom of the NFL but he ranked fourth in passing DVOA in part because he only took 14 sacks all season, down from 30 the year before. He also got a bump up from sixth to fourth due to playing a difficult schedule of opposing defenses.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Caleb Williams, CHI

Williams’ ratio of 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions looks pretty good until you see that he took a near-record 68 sacks for 466 sack yards. Yikes.

Most Improved: Lamar Jackson, BAL and Mac Jones, JAX

Last year, Jackson finished eighth in passing DYAR. He did not really deserve the MVP award in my opinion. This year, he had one of the greatest quarterback seasons of all time.

Mac Jones was… average? Yes, he was pretty close to average this season with -1.5% passing DVOA on 276 pass plays. That’s much better than he was in his final New England season, when he had -21.8% passing DVOA.

Biggest Decline: C.J. Stroud, HOU

Stroud dropped from seventh to 34th in passing DYAR this season. His completion rate was only down slightly, but he was down 1.2 yards per attempt with double the interception rate and more sacks as well.

Running Backs

I’m going to seven players on the first table here because I know everyone will wonder where Saquon Barkley is.

Yes, I know, Saquon Barkley had 2,000 rushing yards and he’s probably going to win Offensive Player of the Year. He may get some MVP votes. However, he had a lower success rate than the other top running backs and a much, much easier schedule than Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry faced a top 10 run defense by DVOA in six different games. He faced a team in the top half of run defense DVOA in 11 different games, because Pittsburgh was 13th and Cleveland was 15th. Henry only faced a team in the bottom 10 in four games: Washington, Dallas, and Cincinnati twice.

Saquon Barkley faced a top 10 run defense by DVOA only three times: Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay. He faced a team in the top half of run defense DVOA six times, because he only faced the New York Giants once. However, he faced a team in the bottom 10 of run defense DVOA in nine different games: Carolina, New Orleans, Dallas twice, Cincinnati, Washington twice, Jacksonville, and Atlanta.

Jahmyr Gibbs also faced a difficult schedule, and Bijan Robinson an easier one, which affects their rushing DYAR numbers.

Henry’s year was so efficient with enough volume to rate as the most rushing value by DYAR in the 21st century. His season comes in sixth all-time, with Gibbs also landing in the top 20 for rushing value.

We can also look at where Henry and Gibbs stand among the best-ever DYAR seasons that combine rushing and receiving. Henry is a little lower on this table while Gibbs is a little higher.

Devon Achane led all running backs in receiving value this year with 173 receiving DYAR. Gibbs and Montgomery were second and third. 

The Las Vegas running game was terrible, as Alexander Mattison was last in rushing value among qualified running backs (minimum 100 carries) but had some receiving value which kept him out of this bottom five.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Henry and Gibbs

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Barkley and Bucky Irving, TB

Irving faced an even easier schedule than Barkley. Irving went from fourth in rushing VOA without opponent adjustments to 13th in DVOA with adjustments.

Most Improved: Henry, Barkley, and Josh Jacobs, GB

In 2023, Derrick Henry was only 17th in rushing DYAR, Saquon Barkley was 42nd, and Josh Jacobs was 44th. It helps to go from bad teams to good teams!

Biggest Decline: Alvin Kamara, NO

Kamara had a secret rebound season in 2023, and then went back down in 2024. He dropped from 12th to 32nd in rushing DYAR even though his actual yards per carry average went up, mostly becaues he went from a difficult schedule to an easy schedule. He also came out with negative receiving value even though he caught 68 passes for 543 yards and two touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

The list of best wide receivers by DYAR is a little complicated by the fact that we now have two versions of the receiving stats. We have “classic” receiving DYAR, based on targets, which we have back to 1978. And we have the new Route DYAR, based on routes, which we only have back to 2021. I don’t have the final Route DYAR numbers with Week 18 included, but the top five going into Week 18 were Jefferson, St. Brown, Chase, Puka Nacua, and A.J. Brown.

Chase won the receiving Triple Crown but does not end up with one of the greatest receiving seasons in “classic” DVOA history. However, we did have a number of outstanding rookie receivers this year who had some historic numbers. Malik Nabers was much better in Route DVOA because he earned so many targets in a bad offeense, but Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey were superb in both Route DVOA and traditional DVOA. Thomas ends up with one of the top 10 rookie wide receiver seasons since 1978 by DYAR, with McConkey just missing the table. 

We also had some historic seasons when it came to the worst DYAR by receivers.

Obviously, quarterback play is part of the equation here. Elijah Moore comes out poorly in part because the whole Browns offense comes out poorly. Wan’Dale Robinson comes out poorly in part because the wohle Giants offense comes out poorly. Nonetheless, both receivers end up on a list of the worst DYAR seasons by wide receivers since 1978. Jonathan Mingo almost made it onto this list for the second straight season!

It would be interesting to see how the new Route DVOA would judge a season such as Chris Chambers in 2006, as he attracted a lot of targets but then was terrible on them. Jahan Dotson was at the bottom of the league for Route DYAR but Elijah Moore was third from the bottom. Robinson looks better in Route DYAR because he attracted so many targets.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Romeo Doubs, GB

Opponent adjustments bump Doubs up from 18th to 13th in DVOA and from 25th to 21st in DYAR among qualifying wide receivers. He also earned an additional 72 yards on three DPI flags. It was a better season than you would think looking at 46 catches for 61 yards and four touchdowns.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Courtland Sutton, DEN

Sutton drops from 20th to 26th in DYAR among qualifying wide receivers due to opponent adjustments.

Most Improved: Terry McLaurin, WAS

It certainly helps your receiver numbers to have competent quarterback play. McLaurin rose from 43rd to fifth in receiving DYAR among qualifying wide receivers, missing our table above due to slightly negative rushing value. McLaurin had more yards per reception, a much higher catch rate (70% instead of 60%) and went from four touchdowns to 13.

Biggest Decline: Tyreek Hill, MIA

Hill led all NFL wideouts in receiving DYAR last season and finished 47th with just 103 DYAR in 2024. He dropped from 15.1 yards per reception to just 11.8 yards per reception, with a lower catch rate, fewer targets, and only six touchdowns instead of the 13 he had a year ago.

Tight Ends

George Kittle leads the NFL in tight end DYAR for the second straight year. As with the wide receivers, the Route DYAR makes things a little complicated. Both Trey McBride (second) and Brock Bowers (third) come out much better in Route DYAR than in regular DYAR because they earned so many targets but also had a lot of incomplete targets due to getting the ball forced to them.

Earlier this season, I wrote about the extremely high catch rates for tight ends in 2024. This year’s tight ends didn’t set any records for catch rate if you use my usual qualifying minimum of 25 pass targets, but they certainly did if you increase that to 50 pass targets, led surprisingly by Cole Kmet of the Bears. They had trouble getting the ball to their great receivers but Kmet certainly caught the passes sent his way.

While the offense collapsed around him in Dallas, Jake Ferguson set a new record for the worst DYAR by a tight end in a season.

Ferguson having such a lowly-rated season despite a reasonable catch rate is a shocker. Some of that has to do with normalizing the stats to average 0% every season, because catch rates in general for tight ends were so high this season.

Better Than His Standard Stats: Noah Gray, KC

Although Gray only had 32 catches for 413 yards, he finished fifth in receiving DVOA among qualifying tight ends thanks to an 82% catch rate and positive opponent adjustments.

Worse Than His Standard Stats: Travis Kelce, KC

Kelce’s poor performance in our advanced metrics is a shocker. He caught 97 passes but only gained 8.5 yards per reception. Last year had been his career low at 10.6 yards per reception. Every other year before that, he was at 12.2 yards per reception or higher. Kelce had never finished outside the top nine in tight end DYAR since his first real season in 2014. He was No. 1 three times. This year, he finished 38th in DVOA and 45th in DYAR among 49 qualifying tight ends.

Most Improved: Pat Freiermuth, PIT

Freiermuth had only 9 DYAR in 2023, and his catch rate went from 68% to 83%. He also went from two touchdowns to seven.

Biggest Decline: Kelce and Ferguson