Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 17 marks the end of the fantasy football season for the vast majority of football players. Monday, we dropped a fantasy overview for the AFC teams in 2023. Today, we will review the NFC teams.
You can never be too early in refining your process in fantasy when preparing for the next fantasy season. Check out the fantasy takeaways from the 2023 NFC teams below.
What We Learned in 2023: NFC
Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride is in the conversation for TE1 next season.
There weren’t many bright spots for the Arizona Cardinals in 2023 as the team tried to tread water in the wake of Kyler Murray’s late-2022 ACL tear. However, the most positive takeaway was the emergence of Trey McBride as one of the NFL’s best young weapons.
It was a slow burn for McBride to start the season thanks to Zach Ertz’ quick return from his knee injury (21 targets, 15 receptions for 170 yards), but once Ertz was injured and released by the team, his stock took off.
From Week 8 to Week 17, McBride averaged 8.8 targets and 7.0 receptions per game. He racked up 621 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per reception. The return of Kyler Murray escalated his production even further.
FTN’s advanced stats suggest that this isn’t a mirage either. Among full-time tight ends, McBride ranked first in yards per route run (2.38) and fourth in air yards per route run (1.84). The second-year tight end caught 13 of his 20 contested targets and caught six of his nine red zone targets for two scores.
McBride was the first tight end selected in the 2022 NFL Draft and showed why in his second year. Even if the team adds a premium receiving weapon in the NFL draft, he should be in the conversation for the TE1 in fantasy in his third year.
Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith hates us all.
Arthur Smith is fantasy football’s worst enemy. Sure, his job isn’t to win us fantasy championships (it is to try and win the AFC South… which he very likely won’t), but a little support would have been nice.
The Falcons have invested ridiculous draft capital in explosive weapons only to not use them in traditional ways. Bijan Robinson was drafted (in real life and fantasy) as a first-round pick in 2023. His RB19 points-per-game mark (13.8) is a big disappointment behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Tyler Allgeier was used just enough against base defenses (180 carries) to have the occasional boom week on your fantasy bench.
Sure, we can blame bad quarterback play from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke for the failings of the wide receiver room, but it doesn’t change the fact that this team chose not to address that position this offseason knowing the investment the team made in Drake London (WR36, 11.1 PPG) and Kyle Pitts (TE14, 8.3 PPG).
The Falcons need to find a quarterback in 2024 (cue the Russell Wilson or Justin Fields rumors) otherwise it will be hard to trust any of these fantasy pieces again next season.
Carolina Panthers
Arguably the worst team for fantasy production ever.
The Panthers gambled on the idea that Bryce Young would be a quarterback who could transcend the talent around him. After one season, that looks like a mistake (although it is hard to put that entirely on Young’s shoulders). Carolina had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which seems less than ideal with a short quarterback who has limited mobility.
This poor offensive situation created arguably the worst fantasy-scoring team in recent memory. Bryce Young averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game and finished as the QB23, tied with Mac Jones and just ahead of Tommy DeVito (10.7), Mitch Trubisky (10.7) and Zach Wilson (10.6) in scoring. Chuba Hubbard was a nice late-round dart throw (10.7 points per game) but gave up enough work to Miles Sanders (5.7 points per game) to be nothing more than a floor play. Adam Thielen ultimately finished as the WR15 in fantasy scoring but offered very little after a torrid run in Weeks 2-6. 55% of his fantasy scoring came before the Panthers’ Week 7 bye.
Time will tell if Bryce Young is a bust (and the right offensive coordinator can salvage his situation), but this team needs significant talent on offense that will be hard to come by without their first-round pick.
Chicago Bears
DJ Moore dunks on the haters.
The excitement of DJ Moore landing in Chicago in the spring eventually settled into doubt throughout the summer. There were doubts that Chicago would pass enough to support Moore as a fantasy asset after being the NFL’s run-heaviest offense in 2022. People thought Justin Fields wasn’t the best quarterback that Moore had played with and couldn’t consistently get him the ball.
Then the season happened.
Chicago’s offense committed to being more balanced after attempting just 377 passes in 2022. Through 17 weeks of 2023, they are at 497 pass attempts. Meanwhile, Moore became the focal point of the Bears passing attack and had a career year, catching 92 of 130 targets for 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. Moore ended up tied as the WR8 in fantasy scoring, tying with Mike Evans in points per game (17.3). That ranking could have been even better without a five-game stretch of Tyson Bagent at quarterback.
Now the Bears head into 2024 with a decision to make. On one hand, the team could stick with Fields and add another premium pass-catching weapon. On the other, the team could use the 1.01 on a player who is considered one of the better QB prospects in college in recent years (Caleb Williams). Either way, Moore will be fine and should be considered a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy next season.
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard: The fantasy bust of 2023?
Few players fell flatter than Tony Pollard in 2023. After years of fantasy players hoping Pollard would get the headliner treatment in Dallas, the stars aligned. The Cowboys moved on from Ezekiel Elliott and didn’t replace him, leaving Pollard with top billing in the Cowboys imposing run game.
Unfortunately, Pollard was not the smash we hoped for with a greater workload. The veteran running back finished as the RB23 in fantasy points per game (12.9), just behind Austin Ekeler (13.3) and ahead of players like Jerome Ford (12.9) and Zack Moss (12.8). The running back handled a career-best 288 touches (53 receptions) but averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry and scored fewer touchdowns (5) than his 2022 spent in a split backfield (12).
It is possible Pollard’s late-season ankle injury in 2022 impacted his production in 2023, but it’s also possible he is more suited to be an explosive 1B as a rusher than the bell cow in the offense. Pollard may be worth a play in 2024 if his draft spot falls enough in fantasy drafts but given he’s an impending free agent and the Cowboys are unlikely to go into 2024 with just Pollard even if they do retain him, he’s unlikely to be anything like a bell cow.
Detroit Lions
A fantasy offense that delivered on projections.
Detroit finished 2023 as the fantasy offense we were promised, with almost all of their core pieces either hitting (or surpassing) their 2023 draft value. The Lions ended Week 17 with two top-12 scorers (in PPR points per game) in the backfield in Jahmyr Gibbs (RB7, 16.7) and David Montgomery (RB12, 15.2). Amon-Ra St. Brown continued to be a high-volume fantasy producer (WR4, 20.2 PPG) and Sam LaPorta took the league by storm, finishing as the TE1 in total scoring and TE3 in points per game (14.1). Even Jared Goff (17.6 points per game) provided exactly what you expected at quarterback.
The Lions remain a fantasy goldmine going forward with all of their core pieces in place. The potential loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson looms large for Detroit in 2024, but this team has one of the best offensive lines and several explosive weapons on offense. There is no reason to believe this team can’t deliver on expectations again in 2024.
Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed: The rookie WR3 in fantasy scoring.
There is another way this could have gone, so I’ll use the first sentence to give a shoutout to Jordan Love (QB6, 19.5 PPG) for taking the torch of strong quarterback play from legends like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers before him.
However, the big story of this season should be Jayden Reed producing the third-most fantasy points from the highly touted 2023 rookie class. The 2023 second-round pick averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game and finished behind only Puka Nacua (17.8 PPG) and Tank Dell (15.0) in weekly fantasy scoring. Reed was especially valuable down the stretch of the fantasy season, scoring at least 15.0 fantasy points in six of the team’s final seven games (he missed Week 15 due to injury).
Undoubtedly, Reed benefited from the series of injuries to presumed WR1 Christian Watson. But this is now the second consecutive season that Watson was limited due to injuries throughout the year. That allowed Reed to emerge as a viable WR1 while logging 60 receptions (on 90 targets) for 681 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 11 carries for 119 yards and two rushing scores.
According to FTN’s Advanced Stats, Reed’s 11.5% opportunity share put him on par with players like Tee Higgins (11.7%), George Pickens (11.7%), DeVonta Smith (11.5%) and Christian Kirk (11.4%). Reed finished as the WR28 in fantasy scoring despite logging just a 17.5% target share.
Green Bay has the youngest skill group in the NFL, so 2023 was likely an audition year for many players as the team determines its core group going forward. It is hard to imagine that Jayden Reed hasn’t earned a big role going forward based on his explosive first season.
Las Angeles Rams
The late-round league-winning skeleton key.
The gamble on Cooper Kupp (13.7 PPG) in the early rounds didn’t pay off for many fantasy managers, but anybody who targeted the Rams skill players late in drafts certainly finished strong in their fantasy leagues.
Puka Nacua exploded over the first four weeks of the season without Cooper Kupp (52 targets, 39 receptions for 501 yards and one touchdown), but he was able to maintain the production even upon his return. The 2023 fifth-round pick had amassed 101 receptions on 154 targets for 1,445 yards and five touchdowns in an explosive first season, finishing as the WR7 in fantasy points per game (17.8). He was available as a late-round dart throw for most of the summer.
Then there was Kyren Williams, who popped onto the radar as a last-round running back toward the end of training camp. Williams seized control of the backfield starting in Week 1 (unseating Cam Akers in the process) and finished as the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.3). Even more impressive is the fact that Williams finished as the RB5 in total fantasy scoring despite missing four weeks due to an injured reserve stint. The second-year running back will be in the first-round conversation in 2024 after totaling 228 carries for 1,144 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while adding 32 receptions on 48 targets for an additional 206 yards and three scores and dominating the backfield.
Those results, combined with solid showings from Matthew Stafford (16.9 PPG) and Tyler Higbee (7.2 PPG with four games over 11.0 PPR points) made the Rams one of the best late-round fantasy teams to target.
Minnesota Vikings
Monitor the QB market very closely.
Heading into the season, it seemed likely that the Vikings would be content moving on from Kirk Cousins after years of great quarterback play yielded minor playoff success. An Achilles tendon tear gave Minnesota a chance to evaluate the options behind Cousins and may have shown the team his worth.
Cousins played in eight games in 2023 before his injury and was delivering one of the best numbers of his career. The veteran quarterback completed 69.5% of his passes for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns with just five interceptions. After his injury, the Vikings tried a trio of quarterbacks in Joshua Dobbs (four starts), Nick Mullens (two) and Jaren Hall (two). That group combined to complete just 65% of their passes for 1,973 yards and 10 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.
Yes, the losses of T.J. Hockenson (95 receptions for 960 yards and five touchdowns) and Justin Jefferson (56 receptions for 882 yards and four touchdowns) for parts the season certainly hurt quarterback production, but even so the Vikings offense came grinding to a halt down the stretch.
Minnesota could still decide to move on from Cousins this offseason to try and find a younger, less expensive option. But as it stands now, this offensive situation bears monitoring since we have seen plenty of fantasy pieces take significant hits to their production without the veteran signal-caller.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara: Still very good for fantasy football.
The deck was stacked against Alvin Kamara coming into 2023. The veteran running back was set to miss the first three games of the season due to a suspension. The Saints added a veteran running back in free agency (Jamaal Williams) and used a Day 2 draft pick on another running back (KenDre Miller) to eat into his workload. Derek Carr (and a healthy receiver room) meant that there would be more vertical shots downfield.
Kamara served his suspension and returned to immediately become the focal point of the New Orleans offense. The veteran running back finished the season as the RB3 in fantasy points per game (17.9) and put up at least 13.0 fantasy points in nine of his first ten games to start the season. While he faded down the stretch (he averaged 7.7 fantasy points over his last two weeks), Kamara certainly pushed many fantasy managers into the championship.
The veteran running back took a hit in the rushing department (3.9 yards per carry) but posted his best receiving season since 2020 with 75 receptions for 466 yards and a touchdown. Many of the same concerns will exist in 2024, especially since most of Miller’s rookie season was lost to injury. But for now, we can recognize the fact that Kamara isn’t washed yet.
New York Giants
In need of a quarterback. And wide receivers. And probably a running back. And an offensive line.
The Giants were the surprise team of the 2022 season. Unfortunately, 2023 was a complete disaster for the team despite numerous “upgrades” on offense.
New York invested in their pass-catching corps, trading for Darren Waller to serve as their tight end (and basically WR1) while also adding Jalin Hyatt in the 2023 NFL Draft and signing or re-signing Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and Parris Campbell. The hope was these players would help Daniel Jones (who secured a $160 million contract in the offseason) take the next step after a good 2022 season. The team also brought Saquon Barkley back on a 1-year deal to replace the franchise tag.
Just five months later, the Giants seem like they’re in a worse place than they started. Jones played in just six games due to injury, throwing for just 909 yards and two touchdowns with six interceptions. Based on the eye test, he was also outplayed by backups Tyrod Taylor (1,044 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions) and UDFA Tommy DeVito (1,087 yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions).
The team also got a disappointing season out of Waller, with just 11 games and 47 receptions due to recurrent hamstring injuries. The modest production out of Barkley (1,145 all-purpose yards and eight total touchdowns) didn’t help either. The offensive line once again struggled with injuries and saw poor play from 2022 first-round pick Evan Neal in his second season.
The Giants will enter 2024 with plenty of decisions to make. The team lacks a true No. 1 receiver. Barkley needs a new contract or will be a free agent. And the team may be in a place where they can upgrade Jones with a top-five pick in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles
Delivered on ADP but might not have won you your league.
On the surface, Philadelphia was a great offense to target in fantasy during 2023 based on their points per game outputs. Jalen Hurts was the QB2 (23.1). D’Andre Swift provided some spike weeks on his way to an RB26 finish (12.5). Both A.J. Brown (WR6, 18.1) and DeVonta Smith (WR23, 14.2) were startable throughout the season. Tight end Dallas Goedert missed some games with a broken forearm but still provided a solid fantasy floor when he played (TE10, 10.4 points per game).
Common sense would say that fantasy drafters who loaded up on the Eagles’ skill players made a killing in fantasy this season. Unfortunately, the team fell flat (relative to expectations) when the games mattered most.
To their credit, both Hurts (20-plus fantasy points per game from Weeks 15 to 17) and Goedert (14-plus in Week 16 and 17) could have gotten fantasy managers a championship. But the rest of the skill players fell flat. Swift exceeded his seasonal PPG average just once from Weeks 13 to 17 and failed to surpass 10 points per game in five of six matchups. Similarly, Brown (11.1 PPG from Weeks 15 to 17) and Smith (11.3) missed their seasonal scoring averages.
Fantasy football can be an extremely frustrating game that often comes down to luck when the season matters most. Managers who prioritized the Eagles’ offense after an explosive 2022 season surely echo those sentiments as 2023 comes to a close.
San Francisco 49ers
Believe in Brock Purdy.
There were plenty of justifiable reasons to fade Brock Purdy during the summer after he shocked the NFL in 2022 by exceeding expectations as Mr. Irrelevant turned starting quarterback. San Francisco still had Trey Lance on the roster (after trading three first-round picks to select him in 2021) and Purdy was coming off a torn elbow ligament that cost him most of the offseason. However, after 2023, it is time to consider Brock Purdy a top-12 fantasy quarterback going forward.
Purdy started every game for the 49ers in 2023 and finished as the QB8 in fantasy points per game, racking up 19.2 fantasy points per game. For reference, Purdy was a better weekly starter than C.J. Stroud (18.5 PPG), Justin Herbert (18.5) and Patrick Mahomes (18.4) in the 2023 season.
Sure, it is easy to bring up the fact that Purdy is supported by arguably the best supporting cast in football as a knock against Purdy the quarterback. Christian McCaffery (391.3 fantasy points) broke fantasy again. Deebo Samuel (17.0 PPG) and Brandon Aiyuk (16.2) remained two of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL with the ball in their hands. George Kittle (12.7) once again turned in a top-six TE season. But none of those things matter in fantasy.
Purdy is exactly what Kyle Shanahan’s offense requires, somebody who can place the football exceptionally well down the field so that the team’s explosive weapons can catch the ball going full speed to rack up YAC. As long as he’s in this scheme, with these weapons, we need to consider him a top-12 fantasy quarterback each season.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith’s return to earth (but was still good for fantasy).
Geno Smith burst onto the scene for the Seattle Seahawks in 2022, finishing as the QB8 in fantasy scoring with 18.5 points per game. Smith became a fantastic redemption story after landing in Seattle and elevating the offense after the team was written off due to the Russell Wilson trade.
Smith became a solid mid-round fantasy quarterback after securing a contract extension with the Seahawks. The team retained their top two passing weapons from 2022 (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett), brought back their starting offensive line and also returned big play threat Kenneth Walker in the backfield. Seattle also added weapons in the passing game during the draft, selecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and Zach Charbonnet in the second round.
Unfortunately, 2023 was not a repeat performance. Smith-Njigba struggled to make a significant impact for most of the season (9.1 PPG) and Charbonnet couldn’t usurp Walker in the backfield. The offensive line suffered multiple injuries, which ultimately led to Smith missing time as well.
As the dust settles from the 2023 season, it is fine to say that Smith still had a solid season in both real and fantasy football. The veteran quarterback put up 3,435 yards and 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions in just 14 games. He averaged a solid, but unremarkable 15.4 fantasy points per game. But his touchdown rate dropped from 5.2% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023 with his interception rate (1.9%) staying the same.
Smith will likely be under center again for Seattle in 2024m and many of the reasons we liked him heading into this season remain the same next year. The offensive line will be healthy and can be upgraded in the draft. The team will still have its core of pass catchers returning with the backfield intact. Smith could emerge as a solid fantasy value as a QB2 for managers selling based on a “down” season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield is back (as a trustworthy QB2).
2022 was a strange year for Baker Mayfield. The quarterback was cut loose by the Browns in favor of Deshaun Watson. He eventually landed with the Panthers but was bad enough that they also cut him loose. Then Mayfield looked solid in a stint with the Rams playing in place of Matthew Stafford.
Mayfield eventually landed with the Buccaneers, where he had to compete with former second-round pick Kyle Trask in a summer quarterback battle. Social media reveled in the training camp film of Mayfield missing receivers badly in practice.
Eventually, Mayfield won the job. Then he went a step further and became one of the better fantasy quarterback values in 2023.
The veteran quarterback may have found his team going forward after a successful first season in Tampa Bay. Mayfield posted career-highs in completion percentage (64.4%), passing yardage (3,907) and touchdowns (28) in his first season with the Buccaneers while throwing just 10 interceptions.
More importantly, he was able to support Mike Evans (76 receptions for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns), Chris Godwin (77 for 973 and two) and Rachaad White (60 for 531 and three) in the passing attack. Mayfield and Tampa Bay will certainly explore a contract extension this offseason, especially if the team can secure a spot in the NFL playoffs.
Mayfield was one of the last quarterbacks selected in fantasy drafts in 2024. While he doesn’t offer the top-end upside of players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts (among many others), he can be a solid QB2 who allows fantasy managers to load up on skill players in the early rounds next season.
This entire section could also go wrong if the team doesn’t sign Baker to an extension or chooses to move on from Mike Evans in a contract year, but the end of the season is for optimism.
Washington Commanders
Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, come on down!
From a fantasy standpoint, you could have done worse than Sam Howell (16.9 PPG). The second-year quarterback came out of the gate hot, scoring over 20.0 fantasy points in six of his first 13 games. Howell looked like a fantasy steal, both in redraft and dynasty, based on his ability to put up good efforts.
Unfortunately, things unraveled quickly for Howell on the field. Howell completed just 63.1% of his passes while throwing for 3,793 yards and 20 touchdowns. He also added 264 yards and five rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Howell’s decision-making led to many turnover plays (19 interceptions and four fumbles). The young quarterback also showed a penchant for holding the ball in the pocket waiting for receivers to come open, taking a ridiculous 61 sacks in 16 games.
The Commanders were set to bench Howell for Jacoby Brissett in Week 17 before a hamstring injury forced Howell back on the field. He responded to adversity (in a tough matchup against the 49ers) by throwing for just 169 yards and a touchdown and two interceptions.
Howell was fine for fantasy but didn’t do much to elevate the fantasy prospects of the players around him despite his stats. Washington’s wide receivers all finished outside of the top 30 in fantasy scoring, with the best being Terry McLaurin (WR36, 12.0 PPG).
The Commanders are currently sitting with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and will almost certainly invest in Caleb Williams or Drake Maye to serve as Howell’s replacement. Both players will be a significant upgrade over Howell and could make Washington a sneaky fantasy offense to target in 2024 given the strong play we have seen from their offensive weapons in past seasons.
