Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 18 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Detroit Lions
Week 17 was a bit of a letdown for fantasy managers who rostered D’Andre Swift. After not playing for several weeks, Swift was tabbed as a “full go” but only received four carries (and three targets) last week. Jamaal Williams posted an inefficient 22 yards on 11 carries but did fall into the end zone. Swift should see more work in the final game of the year.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner missed his second straight game last week, which opened the door for Chase Edmonds to rack up 18 carries and five receptions. Edmonds has 47 touches over the last two weeks and has demonstrated an ability to shoulder a more significant workload when given the opportunity. Conner practiced Wednesday, but you should keep an eye on his availability in the coming days.
Baltimore Ravens
In the absence of Lamar Jackson, who has not played since the early portions of Week 14, Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray have virtually split the workload, especially over the last three weeks. Neither has been very effective and the quarterback carousel continued. Jackson has a chance to play in Week 18, but it is not guaranteed.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb has seen his carry total drop each of the last three weeks. His 12 carries against the porous Steelers’ defense were somewhat surprising as many assumed the Browns would lean on him. Kareem Hunt has not played since Week 14 while D’Ernest Johnson continues to provide viable touches as the No. 2 option. Both Chubb and Hunt were listed as limited participants in practice Wednesday.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was unable to suit up in Week 17, which paved the way for Darrel Williams to carry fantasy teams during championship week, much like he did throughout much of this season. Williams topped 100 total yards and scored a pair of rushing touchdowns. CEH still has not practiced this week which puts his availability for Week 18 in doubt. Williams sits as the RB19 on the season and has seen his value trend up this year.
Miami Dolphins
This backfield remains crowded, with no single option separating himself from the rest of the pack. Myles Gaskin probably has the most value beyond this season, but it’s likely a backfield to avoid heading into the final week of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Boston Scott did an excellent job of stepping up in place of the injured Miles Sanders. Sanders suffered a broken hand and, while not on injured reserve, will likely not be as effective as he was prior to the injury. Jordan Howard is dealing with a stinger and was inefficient on limited touches in Week 17. Except a healthy dose of Scott as the season wraps up this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the absence of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones burned his fantasy managers in Week 17. The matchup was there and volume was expected. However, Jones suffered an injury and was seen in a walking boot Wednesday. His status remains unclear.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson hasn’t topped nine fantasy points since Week 14. Despite his sluggish finish to the fantasy season, he was still an incredible value this year. Mike Davis, on the other hand, could be considered one of the bigger disappointments based on preseason ADP.
Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary should be considered a league winner for his performance over the last few weeks. Early in the season, it appeared the Bills’ running back room would operate by committee, but Singletary was able to separate himself down the stretch. He has at least 14 points in four straight weeks and has scored more points in each of those subsequent weeks.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard’s 17 carries in Week 17 were the most he’s had in a game since Week 8. This backfield has been a mess since Christian McCaffrey went down and Ameer Abdullah has only offered minimal production this season.
Chicago Bears
Despite missing four games early in the season, David Montgomery remains a top-20 running back. He’s topped 10 fantasy points in 10 of 12 healthy games and was heavily involved in the passing game throughout much of the season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon “season” has been a sight to behold, currently the RB4 on the season. Unfortunately, he landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and was ruled out for this week. That opens the door for Samaje Perine to be featured in Week 18.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott (9 carries) and Tony Pollard (3 carries) both set low-water marks in Week 17 for rushing attempts in a game this season. Elliot remains the 1A, but Pollard still offers elite upside when given the lead role in this offense.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon both have exactly 191 rushing attempts on the season. Williams has appeared in one more game, but it highlights the committee approach the Broncos have taken to their backfield this season. Williams remains an elite option in dynasty leagues.
Green Bay Packers
As the weather gets colder, AJ Dillon becomes harder to tackle. The road to the Super Bowl, for the NFC, runs through Green Bay this season and the Packers are looking like one the most complete, balanced teams in the league.
Houston Texans
Rex Burkhead has been a fun story over the last few weeks. Over his last two games, he has 228 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns. That said, the 31-year-old veteran holds almost zero value in dynasty leagues.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor. What more needs to be said?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dare Ogunbowale scored 15 and 14 fantasy points over his last two games. He’s earning significantly more playing time with both James Robinson and Carlos Hyde out for the season. He’s a fun story but is likely nothing more than a depth player with Travis Etienne due back next season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs is quietly an RB1 through Week 17. He’s benefited from additional involvement in the passing game after the injury to Kenyan Drake. Still, the young running back continues to produce when given the opportunity. He was limited in practice on Wednesday with a rib injury.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler returned from a one-game absence to reclaim his spot as the RB1 for the Chargers. The RB2 on the season, Ekeler has 18 total touchdowns and remains one the elite options at the position.
Los Angeles Rams
Sony Michel has at least 18 carries in five straight games and has been exceptional with those opportunities. With 13 carries in his final game, he’ll reach 200 carries for the third time in his four-year career.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook and the Vikings were stonewalled by the Packers in prime time in Week 17. Cook remains one the premier options at the position and should hold value for at least another season or two.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris has seven touchdowns over his last four games. He was limited in practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury so his status will need to be monitored. He and teammate Rhamondre Stevenson provide a solid 1-2 punch for Mac Jones & Co.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara faced a tough rushing defense against the Panthers in Week 17 but racked up 68 receiving yards and a score to offset an inefficient day on the ground.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley set season-highs in carries (21) and rushing yards (102) in Week 17. It was only the second time he rushed for more than 60 yards in a game all year. His situation will be an interesting story to follow this offseason.
New York Jets
Michael Carter suffered a concussion in Week 17 and may not play in the final game. Despite an injury-plagued second half of the season, Carter is looking like an exciting, explosive option for fantasy managers to consider heading into next year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris has over 1,100 rushing yards and over 450 rushing yards this season. He only needs three more carries to top 300 for the year. His workhorse should continue both this week and next season.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell has only played in four games since Week 10 but he’s received more than 20 carries in each of those games. This backfield has long been desirable for fantasy managers and Mitchell paid off in a big way.
Seattle Seahawks
Rashaad Penny is another league winner. The former first-round pick has topped 130 rushing yards in three of his last four games and scored five times in that span. He appears ready to assume the RB1 mantle for the Seahawks.
Tennessee Titans
The big news is that Derrick Henry was designated to return from injured reserve Wednesday. Unfortunately, most fantasy seasons are over. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard filled in admirably during his absence and helped keep the Titans near the top of the AFC.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson did not play in Week 17 (COVID-19) but has returned to practice this week. Jaret Patterson played well in his absence with a line of 12-57-1 on the ground and 5-41 through the air, on five targets.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in the early stages of Week 14 and has not played since. He was not at practice Wednesday and appears to be trending in the wrong direction for the season finale. Tyler Huntley has performed admirably in his stead, but it’s been Mark Andrews who has stolen the spotlight. In Week 17, he saw his streak of three games with at least 10 targets, eight receptions, 115 receiving yards, and a touchdown come to end, but he’s the clear TE1 in fantasy right now.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold was wildly ineffective in Week 17 but appears ready to start this week as well. DJ Moore has at least seven targets in every game this season and somehow sits as the WR18. The quarterback situation can’t be much worse for Moore next season which makes him a prime trade target in dynasty leagues.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has missed the last two games with an ankle injury but should be set to start in Week 18. Darnell Mooney is having a breakout campaign and, with a good game this week, he could top 1,000 receiving yards and 200 fantasy points. Cole Kmet remains a trendy name in dynasty leagues.
Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield will undergo surgery on his shoulder and miss the season finale. This means Case Keenum will be under center. The Browns are out of the playoffs and have nothing left to play for except pride. Mayfield will finish the season outside of the top-20 at the position for the first time in his career.
Denver Broncos
Drew Lock has been starting in place of Teddy Bridgewater over the last few weeks, but he hasn’t been productive with his opportunity. The Broncos were missing several key offensive players in Week 17 and appear to be one quarterback away from having a stellar team.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff has not played since Week 15, and it’s unsure if he will play in Week 18 because of his knee injury. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on fire over the last month. He has at least 11 targets, eight receptions, and 73 receiving yards over his last five games. He also has five total touchdowns in that span.
Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins missed a pivotal matchup against Green Bay due to COVID-19, and the Vikings never really stood a chance. Adam Thielen was already declared out for the remainder of the season due to having surgery on his ankle. KJ Osborn has taken significant strides this season and should be on your fantasy radar moving into next season.
New York Giants
This entire organization has been disappointing. Kenny Golladay, the big offseason acquisition, has not scored a touchdown this year. He has just 34 receptions for just under 500 yards. Daniel Jones has not played since Week 12, but it sounds like both he and head coach Joe Judge will be back next season.
San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance got the start in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 17. The rookie threw for 249 and a pair of scores while adding 31 yards on the ground. It sounds like the starter for Week 18 will come down to Sunday morning. It’s worth noting that George Kittle has been disappointing over the last few weeks. After a dominant stretch in Weeks 13-15, he hasn’t topped five fantasy points in either game since.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is QB4 in fantasy points per game on the season, but that’s on the back of 34-plus points in Weeks 1 and 2. Take those out, and his PPG average drops from 21.8 to 19.7 and he falls to QB12 in PPG. He did miss three games this season and is playing without star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Still, he threw multiple scores for the first time since Week 13 and appears poised to lead the Cardinals into the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is officially over the century mark in receiving yards, which is incredible for a rookie tight end. He only has one score, which by itself is an oddity. Still, he sits as the TE5 on the season and will be a premier asset in fantasy leagues for years to come. He did sit out of practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has at least 40 total touchdowns for the second consecutive season and appears ready to finish as the QB1 for the second time in as many seasons as well. Stefon Diggs has been the model of consistency this year with only two games below 10 fantasy points. He’s also over 1,100 receiving yards and at least six touchdowns for the third straight season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Wow, this offense. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are taking the NFL and fantasy worlds by storm this season. Load up on these guys in all formats.
Dallas Cowboys
After a dominant victory the week before, the Cowboys faltered against a strong Cardinals team in Week 17. Dallas lost Michael Gallup with a torn ACL while CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are both top-30 options at the wide receiver position. Dalton Schultz has officially broken out and sits as the TE3. He has 75 receptions on 101 targets and six scores to go along with 787 receiving yards.
Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams is the Jonathan Taylor of wide receivers. You know he’s getting the volume each week, but it doesn’t matter. He’s just better than everyone else. Adams has at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last six games.
Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks has been the lone bright spot for this offense. He has reached the 1,000-yard receiving threshold for the sixth time in seven years and should be a priority trade target for dynasty teams needing another solid piece.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman turned some heads this season and should be on more radars heading into the offseason. Taking a backseat to JT has its advantages. He has 82 receptions for just over 1,000 yards on 122 targets this season. That’s encouraging volume for a young wide receiver.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Alongside Rashaad Penny, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell is the latest first-round bust to make a strong return over the second half of this season. The Jaguars remain a disorganized franchise but there are offensive pieces in place that should hold value heading into next season. Laviska Shenault will be near the top of my board of players to target this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill has set career-high marks in targets (156) and receptions (110) this season but a few of his down games came at a terrible time for fantasy managers. In Weeks 16 and 17, he totaled eight receptions for 59 yards and no touchdowns. That might sting a bit for fantasy managers which could depress his price a bit.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hunter Renfrow might be the biggest value of the season. The WR11 on the season, he has 99 receptions for just over 1,000 yards and seven scores on 123 targets. Even with the return of Darren Waller next season, his role and usage shouldn’t change that much.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert topped 30 passing touchdowns for the second time in as many seasons and sits as the QB2. Keenan Allen remains as consistent as ever and appears ready to finish inside the top-14 at the wide receiver position for the fifth consecutive season.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp. Elite.
Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle disappointed fantasy managers in Week 17, but he was likely a big part of the reason they made it that far in the first place. The talented rookie has been overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase (for good reason) but sits at 99 receptions on 133 targets. That’s incredible volume for a rookie receiver.
New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers has been a favorite of mine for a few years despite his otherworldly aversion to scoring touchdowns. He found the end zone for the second time this season, and second time in three years, in Week 17 and remains the primary option in the passing game for Mac Jones.
New Orleans Saints
Marquez Callaway has taken a nice step in his sophomore season. However, this team is devoid of offensive talent outside of Alvin Kamara. Keep an eye on this team over the next few months.
New York Jets
Elijah Moore is one of the next exciting wide receivers. He was starting to go on a run before an injury interrupted his season back in Week 13. Prior to that, he topped 10 fantasy points in six of seven games to go along with five touchdowns.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts is exciting to watch, and his playmakers are starting to reap the benefits. Rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert should be cornerstone pieces of this offense for many years, and we all know what Hurts can add with his legs.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger’s career is winding down. There is ample talent on this offense, but it remains to be seen A) who is all on this team next year, and B) who the quarterback is. If you can trade for any Pittsburgh player at a discount, you should do it.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson has looked like his efficient self over the last few weeks. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett keep trading weeks of production, but both are still strong fantasy assets in dynasty leagues.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite missing several key playmakers, Tom Brady was able to get it done against the Jets in Week 17. The Antonio Brown saga stole the headlines, but Brady has now thrown for 40 touchdowns in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. He also needs just 10 passing yards to hit 5,000 for the first time since 2011.
Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown was unable to replicate his heroic performance from Week 16 during the championship weekend. However, he’s healthy and should be locked into an elite target share moving forward. He’s still a strong option in dynasty leagues and should be ranked and valued as such.
Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin has been a disappointing investment this season. After a strong start to the season, he finished with less than 10 fantasy points in eight of his final 12 games. The talent is there, but the quarterback play has not been.
