MSG Wild Card Weekend DFS Breakdown

Welcome to The Breakdown for the Wild Card Round for the NFL playoffs, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 16.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

IND +6.5. O/U: 51
IND: 22 | BUF: 29

Pace and playcalling 

Buffalo ended the season on fire, averaging a league-best 47.3 points per game after dropping 56 on Miami, who came into that game ranked ninth in defensive DVOA. Indianapolis is similar to Miami, who enter as a nice “paper defense,” 10th in scoring and seventh in DVOA, but when matched up with top-ranked offenses (TEN, BAL, CLE, GB), they allowed 33.2 PPG. They also allowed the Raiders and (struggling) Steelers 27 and 28 points recently. 

Bills are 6-2 ATS this season at home, covering the spread in those games by an average margin of 7.7 points per game (first). 

These teams combined to go 19-12-1 to the OVER this season, and Buffalo games have been money in the bank for DFS lately, averaging 59.8 PPG over their last eight. 

Since returning from their bye week, which followed the DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary loss, the Bills are 6-0, winning those games by an average of 19.5 ppg. 

Indianapolis beat up on bad teams, with wins against Cincinnati, Detroit, Minnesota, Jacksonville, NY Jets, Houston (twice) and Las Vegas to vault them into the playoffs, while going 3-4 against playoff teams. They hold the honor of being the only team to lose to Jacksonville this season but are also one of just three teams that defeated Green Bay. 

Buffalo was tied for third in neutral pass rate with Tampa Bay, throwing on 62% of those plays. 

Both teams take about 27 seconds per play (neutral), which is the middle of the pack. Buffalo stays at that same pace regardless of the score and passes at a league-high 56% when up by at least 7.

In comparison, Indianapolis drops from a 55% pass rate (neutral) to 40% when they get a lead of at least 7. They will speed it up to 24.4 seconds per play (eighth-fastest) when down by at least 7 and pass at a 65% rate, which is the scenario that is most likely given how hot the Buffalo offense is, and why this game could fly over the total. 

Another factor to fuel a shootout (or Bills blowout) is Indy’s rush defense, which has allowed a league-low 52.7 yards per game on the ground (last three) and allows the sixth-lowest rush rate this season (3.76 RB YPC, fourth). That will push Buffalo and Josh Allen right into their strength (9 YPA on 69.5% completion rate in his last three) against an Indianapolis D that has allowed a 70.45% completion rate in their last three. 

Buffalo has accrued 72.84% of their yards via the pass (seventh), while INDY has allowed 72.75% of their yards through the air (fourth), which spiked to 85.12% (last three). 

Colts

Unlike Allen, Philip Rivers doesn’t have that slate-breaking upside, eclipsing 25 fantasy points just once this season. He has a streak of mediocrity going, with a six-game streak between 11 and 19 FP on DK, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game over that span. Buffalo has allowed some production this season to QBs, but have tightened things up to end the season, which lifted their DvP rank to 15th and DVOA to 12th. 

Jonathan Taylor should be featured again after finishing the season on a tear (27.2 FPPG, last five on DK). The matchup isn’t scary — Buffalo is 19th in adjusted line yards and 21st in RB YPC allowed, which yielded the 13th most FP to RBs. 

Taylor averaged 22 touches plus targets per game over than five-game span, 8.0 more than he saw in his first 10 games. He did this against a fairly soft schedule, with games against Jacksonville, Houston (twice), Pittsburgh and Las Vegas. He had a whopping eight TDs in those five games, which is awesome, but unsustainable. Another warning sign is 3 targets over his last two games, one a loss to Pittsburgh. If the gamescript goes against him, will this turn into a “Nyheim Hines” game (Buffalo, eighth-fewest rush attempts per game against over their last three) and it will be hard for him to hit 24 FP (3x on DK). The final red flag I see with Taylor is his offensive line, who lost starting tackles Anthony Costanzo and La’Raven Clark for the season and now have declared their RT, Will Holden OUT. 

While Taylor emerged, Nyheim Hines has quietly posted double-digit fantasy points in five of six games on DK. He ended the season with 77 targets, behind only Alvin Kamara and J.D. McKissic (Colts target their RBs at a 25.5% rate, fifth). This is nothing new for Philip Rivers, who targeted his RBs at a 31.7% rate in Los Angeles in 2019 (first). If you think that Buffalo wins this game/covers the 7-point spread, Hines will be involved. In the Colts’ five losses he has averaged 5 catches for 40 yards (13.2 FPPG) which along with his 6 rush attempts per game puts him in play as a low-owned flex, especially on Allen/Bills stacks. 

Tre’Davious White has not shadowed since sticking to DK Metcalf for 53% of his routes in Week 9, which could create some opportunity for T.Y. Hilton, who emerged late as the WR1 for Rivers, seeing 24.5% of team targets since Week 13, catching 4.6 receptions per game.

The problem with Hilton this week is he is not facing the Texans, who he has averaged 5.38 more fantasy points per game against in his career, 9.7 more this season. He could get there if this game goes as expected and Rivers is forced to pass 40-plus times, but even the possibility of White matching up with him (he will anyway for around 40%) is enough for me to fade in three-max (Buffalo, fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs). 

All these WRs are risky against an improving Bills secondary, but one is going to meet/exceed value in a script that should set up well for them. Zach Pascal is the WR version of Rivers — not very exciting — but he’s cheap and will be the slot WR, which is where teams like to attack the Bills. Just last week when Miami targeted their slot receivers (Lynn Bowden Jr. Jr. and Mike Gesicki) 15 times for 9-70-0. Strange to say, but he is my preferred runback on DK, though he isn’t necessary given all the value on the slate. He has seen 22% of Rivers’ targets in his last three games and has seen three of the team’s last six red-zone targets.

Michael Pittman is at his lowest price since Week 2, which makes him show up on our and most projection models. You can go there if you’re running out multiple lineups, but he won’t sniff my three-max or single-entry team on a six-game slate. With Hilton and Taylor coming on late, along with Pascal’s uptick in usage, Pittman has been bad, averaging 6.1 FPPG in his last six. Other than the two-week breakout (7-101-0 and 3-66-1 in Weeks 10 and 11), Pittman did not surpass 10 FP in any game. 

The Colts’ TE committee of Trey Burton, Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox has been written about many times in the breakdown, and the same rule applies here on the 6-Game slate, despite it being a plus matchup. It’s a no-go when all three are in the lineup. For the showdown or three-game slates, I prefer Doyle, who has dominated snaps and targets over their last two games, seeing 9 targets to 5 for Alie-Cox and Burton (combined). 

Bills

Josh Allen had seven games this season with more than 33 FP on DK, which is the upside you need to win a GPP in 2020-21. Both he and Lamar Jackson will be the chalk at QB, around 15-20% on the six-game slate, and much higher on the three-gamers. Both QBs project similarly, with Jackson getting a slight edge given how bad the Tennessee defense is (29th DVOA, lowest in the playoffs). That said, I have Allen higher on my personal ranks, as the Bills’ aggressive play-calling and high pass rate against a pass-funnel defense is too much for me to resist. He is my QB1 on the slate. 

If Allen is QB1, you know Stefon Diggs has to come for the ride (29.2% target share). Diggs finished as the leader in targets, receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535), good enough for WR3 (behind Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, who both scored 10 more TDs than Diggs). He has a ridiculous streak going of at least 6 receptions in 12 straight games and 7-plus receptions in eight straight. Indianapolis has been playing both T.J. Carrie and Rock Ya-Sin opposite Xavier Rhodes, but the struggling Ya-Sin has yet to clear concussion protocol and is out for Saturday (see more on that situation below). Diggs moves all over the formation, so will only see his ex-teammate, Rhodes, for 30% of his routes. Rhodes has bounced back from his struggles in Minnesota, ranking fourth in fantasy points per game in coverage on the fourth-lowest target rate in coverage. That said, he does not shadow, and I don’t think he (or anyone) can cover Diggs, who has gone full “Antonio Brown” (circa 2017). 

As you can see via Next Gen Stats, Diggs torments his opponents all over the field:

Injury update

Ya-Sin was ruled OUT, leaving T.J. Carrie to start against Diggs/Brown. He has allowed 17 fantasy points in coverage in two of his last three games and will be heavily targeted. Per our advanced DvP tool, Indianapolis has allowed the second-most points to RWRs. 

Diggs (oblique) is technically listed as questionable, but I think this is just “superstar rest.” He is projected to be the highest owned WR on the slate at about 25%. I will have him on one of my three three-max teams, and single entry, as I am not going to stack Allen and fade his WR1. 

Another injury to monitor is Cole Beasley (89% slot rate), who was hurt in Week 16 against New England after playing 49% of snaps. Beasley was on fire prior to the injury, seeing 31 targets in his previous three games (22-193-1). His status is huge for John Brown and Gabriel Davis, who will be dealing with two target hogs instead of just one. Indianapolis is tied for sixth in slot receptions and third in slot yards allowed per game. Be sure to check back Saturday morning for how I am handling Beasley and the rest of this crowded WR situation. 

Week 17’s hero, Isaiah McKenzie (6-65-2) had his injury designation removed and practiced in full. If Beasley is in, don’t chase those points, as he played 65.8% of snaps, catching 4-47-2 from the slot. I expect to see him in some capacity, whether a trick play or designed run/shovel-pass, but that is best for those who play the showdown slate. 

Brown is a player I have always liked, so I will have a share or two linked up with Allen, but he only played 40% of snaps in week-17, and Davis is a “real thing” at this point, so don’t expect him to just make way for Brown as the full-time “Z receiver,” opposite Diggs in 11 personnel (Bills ran three-receiver sets on 74% of plays this season, first). Buffalo also ran out four WRs on 15% of plays, the second-highest rate this season, so again, Davis will remain in the mix. 

With all those WRs running routes, Buffalo targeted their TEs at the third-lowest rate this season (11%). Tyler Kroft was activated off the Reserve/COVID-19 list after five negative tests and one angry wife, who blasted the league on Twitter for making Kroft miss two games for a false positive. He will join Dawson Knox and Lee Smith in a crowded TE by committee that has a low combined target share. 

Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have been in a fairly even split over their last four games, with Singletary having a slight lead in snaps, but Moss in touches (43 to 34). Singletary leads in routes (63) and targets (7), but this offense targeted their backs at the fourth-lowest rate this season, and the lowest rate (9%) over their last four games, so not sure we can count on too much in terms of passing production. Indianapolis has allowed an 81% catch rate to backs on the 12th-most targets, so if you are running it back to a Rivers stack, Singletary is your guy. If you think the Bills roll, a Moss/Bills D stack could be a nice contrarian way to get Buffalo exposure. 

Indianapolis is first in explosive rush rate against, allowing just two games with a back going over 100 yards (both to Derrick Henry), and three games with 60-plus yards to a running back. They are 29th in rushing TDs allowed, which is where Moss has his value as the goal-line back (8 goal-line carries). Of course, on the Bills, Josh Allen is Option A, with 9 goal-line carries. 

Injury note

Colts superstar DeForest Buckner (ankle) is questionable for Saturday’s Wild Card matchup in Buffalo, Andrew Walker of the Colts’ official site reports. He is playing and was even named the December’s Defensive Player of the Month while managing this same injury,

Core plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Nyheim Hines 

GPP only: Jonathan Taylor, Zach Pascal 

Check back Saturday for the Bills’ other WRs. 

LAR +3. O/U: 42.5
LAR: 19.5 | SEA: 22.5

Pace and playcalling 

I don’t have a ton of interest in this game as a game stack, with these teams 11-21 to the UNDER this season and their matchups averaging 34 points per game. 

Prior to the 26-23 matchup with San Francisco in Week 17, Seattle was on a seven-game streak to the UNDER after starting the season as a team to stack, and stack against. 

Seattle was on a record pace of passing yards allowed on defense and gave up 30.3 PPG in their first eight, which had DFS players chasing those points for weeks. Only recently has the public adjusted to the full reversal, allowing 15 PPG to end the season (last 8 games). 

Seattle took their pass DVOA from 32nd to 20th, taking advantage of a soft schedule. Los Angeles was part of that run, and they belong in that group of bad offenses, finishing 23rd in scoring after posting just 15.6 PPG to close out the season (last three).

Los Angeles finished first in points and yards per drive allowed, allowing the fewest points this season (18.5). That is what Seattle managed, 18 PPG in their two games against this defense. Los Angeles was second in adjusted sack rate and sacks, which is a nightmare for Russell Wilson and this offensive line (30th in adjusted sack rate allowed). 

Both teams push their opponents into the pass, due to gamescript (Seattle finished with the third-most plays from the lead, Los Angeles was seventh). They also allow the fifth- (Los Angeles) and eighth-lowest yards per carry to RBs (QBs removed). 

The Rams ran the third-most plays per game (68), while Seattle allowed the most plays per game (69.5). 

Rams

It looks like Jared Goff could play after having surgery on this thumb, but it will be a game-time decision. Sean McVay remained non-committal, saying, “We are going to work through that, and we will see on Saturday.”

He also said he “recovered without a problem from Wednesday” and did “everything asked Thursday.” Goff “showed no problem gripping the ball or passing” and said he is “progressing well” and not having problems with snaps from under center.

I am assuming Goff plays, but will update if that changes. If he can’t go, John Wolford will get another start and I will need to reexamine. Goff targeted Cooper Kupp 17 times in their two matchups with Seattle (13 catches) and Robert Woods 16 times (9 catches). Both run the majority of their snaps in the slot, where Seattle allows 9.6 targets per game (first). Just last week, Seattle allowed San Francisco slot receivers to catch 9 balls for 89 yards on 11 targets. Given Kupp will be less owned and is less expensive on both sites, he is my preference. Though, I am a Woods stan so will likely get a share or two on a lower-dollar team. He has scored eight times to Kupp’s three, but Kupp did finish with a 26% red-zone target share (Woods 20%), so the opportunity has been there. 

Cam Akers returned last week, high-ankle sprain and all, to play 65.8% of the snaps and handle 25 touches, including 4 targets from Wolford. To say he was ineffective on the ground would be an understatement, racking up 1.6 YPC on 22 carries (not a misprint). Darrell Henderson is still out with a high-ankle sprain as well, so it should be another big workload for Akers, who unlike last week, is practicing in full and will likely have his injury designation removed for the game. Regardless of Goff’s status, I don’t see them designing a game plan around him throwing it 40-plus times. They want to limit turnovers, grind out yards, and let their top-ranked defense carry them to the second round. It could be another low-efficiency/high-volume game for Akers, with Seattle 12th in adjusted line yards allowed (3.91 RB yards p/c). They did allow the seventh-most rushing TDs this season and allowed Henderson and Malcolm Brown a combined 19-99-0 in Week 16 and 23-99-2 in Week 10 when all three backs were active. 

Brown has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which could have limited his work last week (4 touches), but it is likely just McVay playing the more talented player. 

Akers should get a nice bump with LT ?Andrew Whitworth? back. To quote Robert Woods, it’s “huge.” Whitworth earned his highest PFF grade since 2014 prior to the injury, leading the Rams to a 7-3 record in games he played (3-3 without). 

Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have seen exactly 17 targets each over their last four games. Higbee averaged 3-47-0 on six targets per game against Seattle (Everett, 2-20-0 on 3 targets). I am an Everett fanboy, but I prefer Higbee if you are looking for a very low-owned punt TE that does have some TD upside (5 TDs this season). 

Seahawks

Russell Wilson had one of the stranger seasons I can remember. Coming out on fire, averaging 32.55 fantasy points per game in his first six. The issue was their D was so bad during that stretch, that they clearly made a decision to play more conservatively in order to protect the defense. That has sent Russ back to the Philip Rivers tier of QBs, averaging 19.65 fantasy points per game over his last 10. At least Rivers is a “value play,” where Wilson remains as the third-most expensive QB (on DK). FanDuel has done a better job adjusting his number, but in this matchup with the Rams, it’s not enough for me. I think he will run more, and I think he makes some plays to get his 200-plus yards and a score or two, but again (19.9 fantasy points in Week 16 versus the Rams), that is not going to cut it at $6.7k. 

Seattle has connected for 11 plays of over 40-plus yards (fourth), but overall, they were not as good as you would think on deep passes. Wilson ended 26th in completion rate on deep passes (20-plus yards). That said, he will take his shots to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, ranking eighth with 4.1 deep attempts per game. Los Angeles was the best in the league on deep passes, tied for first in 20- and 40-yard receptions allowed. As you can see via Sharp Football, they were awesome against any pass over 15 yards.  

Metcalf has had as much success and volume as Lockett in that middle zone, where the Rams are most vulnerable, but he will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey (73% of snaps in coverage in Week 16, holding him to 1-11-0 on 2 targets). That was the most Ramsey has followed any WR this season, and given its effectiveness, I would assume we will see it again. 

Rams allowed 3 fewer fantasy points per game to WRs this season on FanDuel than second-place WASH, so I am not on Lockett either (eighth-fewest slot fantasy points allowed), though he is my preference of the two if you are forcing me to choose. 

Greg Olsen will be back to make this a three-headed TE by committee that I have zero interest in. Same for the “other WRs,” Freddie Swain and David Moore. Those guys are only viable on a showdown slate, with Moore my preference. 

Chris Carson is the best individual play on Seattle, with his price sinking below $6k for the first time this season on DK. We knew his high TD rate was not sustainable, and as they fell off (three straight without a score), so has Carson’s value, averaging 10 FPPG over that span. The days of running on the Rams has passed, so matchup is not good for him either. Los Angeles actually finished with a higher rush DVOA grade (third) than pass (fourth). They allowed the 10th-most targets to RBs, as QBs choose the path of least resistance against this D (16th in RB yards allowed via the pass), and Carson has shown a decent usage rate in that regard (3.8 targets per game), but as you can tell, there is not much to like here when looking at the numbers (Los Angeles, fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs, 29th in explosive plays allowed). 

Core plays: Seattle DST (the cheap D on FD this week), Los Angeles DST, Cam Akers 

GPP only: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Chris Carson, Tyler Higbee (other than Kupp, these are all multi-entry only)

TB -8 O/U: 44.5
TB: 27 | WAS: 17.5

Pace and playcalling 

In terms of pace, this is the best game on the weekend — Washington is fourth, Tampa sixth in neutral pace. For points allowed per game, on the other hand, this is the worst on the slate, with Tampa eighth (22.2), Washington fourth in points allowed. 

Tampa Bay encourages opponents to pass, with the No. 1 rush D by a significant margin in adjusted yards and RB yards allowed. Washington already passed at the seventh-highest rate (neutral) and Tampa third, so get ready for a lot of pass attempts on both sides (TB allowed 41.3 pass attempts per game over the last three). 

Washington was 5-11-0 to the UNDER this season (2-6 at home). I don’t care much for trends from the past involving players who are retired, but according to Vegas Insider, home dogs are 8-1 against the spread since 1970. 

Buccaneers

Tom Brady has been great of late, but he has also faced Kansas City, Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit and Atlanta — of those, only Kansas City ranks higher than 16th in adjusted sack rate, with the other three teams ending in the bottom five in pressure rate as well. Brady is 40th in adjusted pressured passer rating, completing just 33.7% of his passes under pressure (5.2 YPA), compared to 72% when clean for 8.3 YPA. The Football Team was sixth in sacks and adjusted sack rate and seventh in pressure rate. They will blitz from all over the field in hopes to copy what the Saints and Bears did to him. In those three games, Tom Terrific looked like Tom Terrible, averaging 13.98 FPPG, compared to 25.33 versus the rest of the league. 

Head coach Bruce Arians said this week they are crossing their fingers for both Carlton Davis and wide receiver Mike Evans (hyperextended left knee) to play. 

Per Sarah Walsh on Twitter, Evans was moving pretty well Friday, and has played both times he has been a game-time decision. I assume he will play, which makes him my choice again as we play “Tampa Bay wide receiver roulette” for another week. Evans averaged 8.8 targets per game in his last six games and is the alpha at the goal line, trailing only Davante Adams with 14 EZ targets. I would expect most to be hesitant to run him out as a game-time decision, when both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are healthy and have been producing. As a collective group, the Washington secondary has been good, they are helped by a good pass rush, but that is the case with coverage. Per DVOA, they are more vulnerable to WR1s (24th), which along with the TD upside at low ownership has me on Evans. 

Again, pressure will be the key, as none of the individual matchups are good for the Washington secondary. Godwin should have no issues with Jimmy Moreland in the slot, he caught all four of his targets while lined up inside last week for 87 yards and two TDs. Brown also did the majority of his damage from inside, catching 6-82-2 last week on six targets. If Brady and his (very good) offensive line protects, these guys will eat; I just don’t see all three going off like they did against Detroit and Atlanta. 

I will update this section if Evans is ruled out. 

Rob Gronkowski also gets a bump if Evans is out, but he is a solid TE play on this slate regardless at his price. He is your typical low-end TE1, who could get you 2 catches for 25 yards (2 or fewer in six of his last eight contests), or 3 catches for 30 yards with a score or two. He has 10 RZ targets, which is second on the team and fourth among all TEs. 

Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have settled back into a timeshare, with Jones outrushing Lenny 31 to 15 when both have been active lately, while Fourentte has almost doubled up Jones on pass routes. I think Jones is a play, correlated with TB D and playing for the Bucs to dominate this game (as they should). Per our own Derek Brown, Washington ranks first in DVOA against pass-catching backs, allowing the third-fewest receptions (61) and receiving yards (379) to the position. This script doesn’t set up well for him as an 8-point favorite, so it’s Jones in tournaments and that’s it for the Tampa backs. 

Football Team

Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin and quarterback Alex Smith are all listed as questionable after limited practice this week, but all are supposed to play. Still, Ron Rivera has given first team snaps to backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in case Smith’s calf injury is reaggravated. The matchup is terrible for either QB, with Tampa sixth in blitz and second in pressure rate (fourth in sacks). That is a scary thought for the reconstructed Smith and this offensive line, that finished 31st in sacks allowed (22nd in adjusted sack rate). 

Washington was 31st in yards and 27th in points per drive, Tampa was fifth and sixth, respectively, in those defensive stats, which again indicates what a difficult matchup this is for Washington. 

Antonio Gibson is projected to be at least 15% owned this weekend in our model, which surprised me. I understand he is the workhorse back, but I can’t see script going his way and as outlined above, Tampa is a brutal matchup for backs on the ground. He is an easy fade for me. 

J.D. McKissic is my guy this week and will likely end up in the core or optimal lineup. As I noted on FTNBets, McKissic averages 7.3 receptions per game in Football Team’s last eight losses, while seeing 24% of Alex Smith’s targets this season. He finished first in RB targets (101), and second in receptions with 80, running 12% of his routes as a slot receiver. TB was the only team to allow 100-plus catches to RBs this season. 

With Carlton Davis back, McLaurin will have a tougher matchup, but nothing that he can’t overcome if Smith is able to survive the pass rush. That is why I prefer Logan Thomas if choosing a second option on Washington. Thomas also gets a good draw, with TB allowing 14 fantasy points per game to the position this season on DK. His six targets last week were his five-week usage floor. He leads the team with 24 RZ and 9 EZ targets. 

Core plays: J.D. McKissic, Tampa Bay DST, Logan Thomas 

GPP only: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (core if Evans is OUT), Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, Rob Gronkowski

The remaining three games will be added later Friday.

BAL -3. O/U: 54.5
BAL: 29.5 | TEN: 26

Pace and playcalling 

Baltimore enters as a 3-point road dog, despite losing the last two head-to-head matchups with the Titans as favorites, including the 28-12 stomping in the playoffs a year ago almost to the day. I understand the Ravens come in hot, but like always need to examine the schedule to determine how legit the turnaround was. It is what you would expect (soft), with just one playoff team in the bunch (Cleveland, who is 25th in defensive DVOA). Their other wins came against Dallas, Jacksonville the NY Giants and Cincinnati. Baltimore faced just five teams this season with a winning record (Cleveland twice, Tennessee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh twice and INDY) and went 3-4, with two of those wins coming against Cleveland. 

Against those five teams (seven games) with winning records, Baltimore allowed 23.5 PPG compared to 15.5 in their other nine contests. Taking it further, they allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three games against playoff teams (Cleveland, Tennessee, Pittsburgh). 

Baltimore has scored on everyone, averaging 29.2 points per game, 27.2 against teams with winning records. They run at the league’s highest rate and play at the second-slowest neutral pace, but that hasn’t prevented their opponents from running a lot of plays (11th-most). 

Tennessee runs at the fourth-highest rate, but plays fast, finishing the season at the No. 3 neutral pace. 

It is strange to see two run-heavy teams with a massive 54.5 total, but when you have two of the best players/offenses in the league, it is justified.

Tennessee is 27th in points and 30th in yards per drive allowed, while also being in the top-three in those stats on offense, which has been the perfect storm for DFS. TEN’s games have averaged 58.1 points per game, and they have gone OVER the total at the league’s highest rate (12-3-1), going over the total by 7.7 PPG on average, also first. 

Ravens

Lamar Jackson took advantage of the schedule I outlined above, ending the season on a hot streak (31.25 fantasy points per game over his last four). This matchup is as good as it gets, with Tennessee 31st in pressure rate, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. We play Jackson for his legs, but when he gets it going through the air simultaneously is the nuts for DFS. He only completed 36% of his passes under pressure this season, compared to 74% when clean, which sets up well against Tennessee, who has allowed 36 TD passes (31st). He ranks just behind Josh Allen for me on the slate and will be on one of my three-max teams. Trying to choose between him and Allen is like deciding to drive a Ferrari or Lamborghini, bottom line, you won’t be disappointed with either.

Tennessee is better in run defense, but that is a relative term when comparing it to their terrible pass D. They are still the seventh-most generous defense to RBs in fantasy as a result of being in so many high scoring games. They allow a healthy 157 total yards to backs, as well as 20 total TDs, tied with Jacksonville. That sets up our boy, J.K. Dobbins, in another prime spot to keep his TD streak of six games going one more week (at least). He is still not seeing the volume I prefer (which is crazy, but that’s for another article), averaging just 12.6 touches in his last five compared to Gus Edwards’ 11 over that same stretch. Edwards is just one game removed from seeing 6 red-zone carries, so as much as we want him to go away and Dobbins to get 20-plus touches, it isn’t happening unless Edwards gets injured. Jackson doesn’t target his backs much (sixth-fewest) — he makes a read or two (usually to Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews) and then he is off to run. 

Mark Ingram returned from a three-game absence last week and handled 9 carries in the blowout win, most of it coming at the end of the game. I would prefer he is inactive for Dobbins, as god knows we don’t need another back stealing work from the rookie. 

Marquise Brown has seen a healthy increase in usage, which is and has been my only problem with him in DFS. Brown has seen 6.83 targets per game over his last six, which has yielded 4.33 receptions and 56.33 rec. yards for nearly 16 FPPG (6 TDs). Brown saw a whopping 33% of team targets and 34.8% of air yards to close out the season (last four), and 33% only the Lions gave up more passing TDs this season than the Titans. I wish he was going to be less popular, but with Jackson being the chalk it only makes sense his WR1 would come along for the ride.

Andrews will be very popular after finishing the season strong, catching four balls in six straight games. Andrews is right behind Brown with a 29.0% target share and has dominated inside the red zone with a 32% target share inside the 20. He tore up this defense for 5-96-1 in their previous matchup and is projected to be the number one TE in raw points and ownership. 

If you are only stacking the Ravens on one team, I just load up Andrews and Brown and move on. If you submit more than one, I think a “Lamar naked” team makes an interesting play. With his legs, and the random TDs to Miles Boykin and Willie Snead, etc., you could have a more unique lineup that has some leverage if Brown and or Andrews (22% projected ownership) busts while Jackson runs for 100 and a couple of TDs.

Snead (ankle) was limited during Thur/FRI’s practice. I think he plays but is not someone I would roster outside the showdown slate. 

TEN

With most teams, I start with the QB, with TEN I feel it’s right to start with the King. Derrick Henry closed out 2020 with 34 carries for 250 yards against the Texans to win another rushing crown and reach 2,000 yards. He led the league in carries (378), rushing yards (2,027), and TDs (17). 

BAL is 10th in adjusted line yards and 19th in RB yards per carry, which is right around league average. They played without both Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell in week 11, which was also the game prior to half of their roster going on the COVID list. They have only allowed 87.7 rush yards per game in their last three games, but that is a result of them playing from the lead (25.5 point margin of victory, last 3), and their (inferior) opponents abandoning the run (17.7 rush attempts per game, 5 YPC, last 3). In terms of overall matchup, it is not great for Henry, but I don’t think that matters much for the King, who gets 25 touches a game (4.1 RZ). The one thing that can lead to a successful fade is simply script. If the Ravens can dominate early and get a lead, we can see his floor, which at his prices and ownership is not going to do it. He averaged 89.6 rushing yards per game in losses, compared to 143.5 rushing yards in wins. 90 yards a game is great for mortals, but again, at $10k it is disappointing. I will be about even with the field, on 1-of-3 of my 3-Max teams, and about 25%-30% overall. I know that is not much of a stand, but it is exactly how I am playing it. 

Ryan Tannehill is in that same spot as always, a terrific lower owned leverage QB and stack with his two WRs as Henry absorbs all the ownership. A.J. Brown is basically Henry at WR, simply too big and fast for regular humans. Seeing him get a season-high 11 targets last week was basically football porn (10-151-1). Jimmy Smith has been banged up but practiced some this week so I expect he will back, but he does not worry me like he used to, especially against players like Brown and Corey Davis. Marcus Peters is terribly overrated and has been for a while, he allowed 1.7 FP per target this season and 5 games of 15+ FP in coverage, including against TEN. 

Jonnu Smith averaged 20.6 rec yards per game over his last 11. He is no different than Higbee or Jimmy Graham, a cheap TE that needs a TD to pay-off. Smith also has Anthony Firsker and just isn’t a guy I have been rostering. Like all lower end TEs, it is TD or bust for Jonnu at this point but I suppose he makes sense in Tannehill stacks with the hope of a shootout. That said, he has not made it on any of my rosters at this time. 

Core plays: Lamar, Andrews, Henry 

GPP Only: Hollywood, Tannehill – AJ Brown – Davis 

CHI @ NO

CHI +9.5. O/U: 47.5

CHI: 17.5 | NO: 29

Pace and Play-Calling 

Traditionally we think about the Bears and their defense, but it is NO that features the best defense in this matchup. The Saints finished right behind PIT in DVOA, 5th in scoring allowed at just 21.1 points per game. 

NO went 6-2 to the OVER at home this season, allowing 24 PPG in the dome compared to 17 PPG away. They also scored more at home, over 31 PPG which was behind only TEN and BUF. 

CHI went 5-2-1 to the OVER on the road, averaging 5+ PPG away from CHI. 

There is a lot to unpack with the Saints offense with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas both due back. We also have Taysom Hill to deal with as another factor that can disrupt things. He has been so good at the goal line, scoring in three straight games that Brees has appeared, and now has 8 rushing TDs on the season. 

This game gets the lowest grade for the pace of play, NO play at the 4th, and CHI the 10th slowest neutral pace. Once up by 7+, NO will run it at a 60% clip and milk the clock at over 30 seconds per play. In that situation (down 7+) CHI will speed it up significantly and pass at 74%, the highest rate this season. 

The Saints tough rush D, with a combo of a good offense limited rushing production. NO was 2nd in rush DVOA, allowing 3.74 adjusted line yards per carrying, which led to 24.4 rush attempts against (5th) for 93.9. They have softened lately, allowing 114.3 over their last three, including 6 rush TDs over that span.

CHI

I have talked a lot about scheduling in this article because opponents matter in football. Looking at DvP with no context can lead you astray, as matchups with HOU and DET are significantly different than matchups with NO and TB. David Montgomery has been great, reaching 20+ FPP in six straight games on a massive workload (30+ touches in 2-of-3), but those games were against the worst run defenses in the league (DET, HOU, JAX, GB x 2, MIN x2). MIN may not seem like a bad run D, but they actually finished dead last in the adjusted line yards allowed metric, which has been very predictive and useful for me over the years. In fairness to Monty, you can only play who is on your schedule and he has annihilated his last five. His last tough matchup was against these Saints, where he ground out 105 total yards on 23 touches. I think we see a similar workload, 20+ touches are almost a lock at this point (29.33 in his last 3), however, I think he can do more damage in the passing game then he did back in week 11. NO is good against the RB pass, but Monty has seen 15 targets in the Bears’ last two losses (14 receptions). Due to the price, and the PPR factor, I prefer him on DK. 

If we think the Bears are in for a beat down, then a  Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson, and Darnell Mooney stack sound like a fun, low-owned stack for tournaments. The issue is Mooney has yet to practice this week after his 11 targets, 11 catch breakout last week. After missing Friday’s practice, I would say it is not looking great for the rookie. I will update this section once we know about Mooney, as this could bring back Anthony Miller to life.

NO

Michael Thomas is back, and one of my favorite plays on the slate. His price was simply reduced too much, making him close to a lock button play. Thomas posted 9-131-0 in this matchup last season and missed the one earlier this season. CHI has been tough on outside WR or “WR1”, as indicated in their 2nd DVOA vs WR1, which was on display last week when they held down Davante Adams for most of the game. Thomas moves around a lot and will go inside, so looking at those stats for him seem like a waste. He has been so good in the dome with Brees and has had weeks off to prepare for this game. a year ago. He is my WR3 on the slate behind Diggs and Diontae Johnson. 

Alvin Kamara is scheduled to come off the COVID list tomorrow (SAT). The last time we saw him he was scoring 6 TDs on MIN, but he is not a “Must Jav” for me this week. I love Kamara, and he is always a top RB on any slate that he plays in, but he is so expensive, will be high-owned, and I have so many other players that I like, that I will be (very) underweight on the field (24% projected ownership). I project him for 11-12 carries for 45 yards, 3-4 catches for 30 yards, with a solid probability for a TD (or two). Solid, but not slate breaking.

After COVID and no practice, I expect we will see more Lat Murray on Sunday, or at least that is the hope with the Kamara fade. With Thomas back, the distribution of targets is thrown into chaos, Emmanual Sanders becomes a solid (but volatile) WR3/Flex, but this is not a matchup to expect all these fringe players to hit their ceilings (Bears, 8th fewest WR FPPG allowed). We have seen Brees struggle more this year than ever before, so to pencil in 300+ and 3 TDs would be very bullish. I have him at about 250 yards and 2 TDs, which lands him in the same tier as Rivers, Wilson (Brees, one game this season with 25+ FP). 

UPDATE

Roquan Smith is questionable/doubtful after not practicing all week. If he is out, the Bears are in (even more) trouble.
 

Core plays: Thomas 

GPP Only: Monty, AROB, Kamara 

Pace and Play-Calling 

Pitt loves to throw, passing at a 65% neutral rate, first this season. They also play fast, 4th fastest in neutral, and like BUFF, stay fast when up by 7+ (10th fastest). CLE wasn’t good at full-strength at stopping the pass (25th in pass DVOA), allowing 7.7 YPA on the road this season (5.8 at home) and 20 passing TDs (T-4th most). 

CLE

This game is a mess, with CLE and their injury and COVID “issues”.  Wyatt Teller G (LP / LP, Calf, Questionable), Jack Conklin T ( LP / LP, Illness, Questionable), and Donovan Peoples-Jones (Concussion) are questionable. Juju Smith-Schuster was a surprise “did not practice” on THURS today due to a knee issue. There is no indication of whether this is a new injury or the lingering knee issue that has bothered him this year. I am waiting to see his status on FRI. 

OUT due to COVID or close contact:

• Kevin Stefanski HC
• Kevin Johnson CB
• Denzel Ward CB
• Harrison Bryant CB
• Joel Bitonio LG
• Khadarel Hodge WR

We need to know the status of Teller and Conklin before considering Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, and the rest of the Browns offense against a tough opponent with no players listed on the injury report. 

In the meantime, check out the full breakdown of this game from DB, and I will update as more news comes in.

PIT

Like I said in the Mike Thomas section, I love Diontae Johnson in this matchup. I would even if CLE was at full strength, so against a depleted secondary, he will be in my CORE. I also like DJ with Chase Claypool and Ben Roethlisberger in a full-stack, and will likely have that as my third stack along with TENN/BAL and BUFF.   CLE will be rolling out Terrance Mitchell, M.J. Stewart, and Robert Jackson, making this the best “team WR/CB matchup” on the slate. 

Steelers’ run game has been bad. PIT was dead last in adjusted line yards gained (3.78) and RB yards per carry (3.82). The reason I am considering Conner, despite the flaws is his price, TD equity as a home favorite against a depleted Browns team that could get blown out, and that he caught 5 balls in each of his last two games, which should keep him in play if this game stays close or goes against PIT. 

Core plays: Johnson 

GPP Only: Ben – Johnson – Claypool stack, Conner, Landry 

Top Stacks: 

INDY/BUFF – Hines is my favorite run back 

Full Ravens/Titans stacks

Lamar – Henry – C. Davis (great value on DK) – Hollywood – Andrews 

Tannehill – Dobbins – Davis – AJ – Hollywood – Andrews 

PITT STACK – Favorite low-owned/run-back is Hollywood Higgins on DK 

SAT-SUN CORE 

Core (FD):  Allen – McKissic – Akers — D. Johnson – MT – Diggs – SEA 

Core (DK):  Allen – Conner – Akers — D. Johnson – MT – Hollywood Brown – Andrews 

SAT CORE 

Core (FD):   Allen – Carson – Akers – Diggs  – Beasley – Godwin – Thomas – SEA 

Core (DK): Allen – Hines – Akers – Diggs  – Kupp – Thomas – Carson 

Other players, I am using NOT in the CORE 
 

Dobbins 

Claypool 

Mike Evans 

McLaurin 

Underweight 

I am playing a bunch of GPP lineups along with the CORE, so I will have exposure to these guys on my “other” LUs….But I am fading all the high-priced RBs (Taylor, Kamara, Henry) in my CORE, which could go terribly wrong. I also don’t have any TB exposure in my SAT-SUN CORE which is unsettling. But, on a short slate, it pays to get unique, which often feels uncomfortable.

SUNDAY CORE 

DK: Lamar – Alvin – Conner – MT – Diontae – Hollywood – Ebron – A. Miller

*You can make a bunch of LUs off of this core, mixing in Andrews, Henry, Corey Davis, Ben, who all have a case for being in the CORE

FD: Lamar – Dobbins – Kamara – Miler – Hollywood – Diontae – MT 

*Same thing applies on FD, mix and match Conner, Hunt, Andrews, Henry for your other LUs. I have Andrews on our CORE LUs yesterday and wish I could have squeezed him in here. But, it was either Lamar + Ebron or Ben + Andrews and I chose the rushing upside from Jackson. 

Full Ravens/Titans stacks

PITT STACK – Favorite low-owned/run-back is Hollywood Higgins on DK 

(just a reminder from yesterday)