Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 6

The NFL has trended toward backfield time shares in recent seasons. But those seem to be ramping up further in Week 6 with Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Javonte Williams and maybe more traditional starters ceding extra time to their traditional backups. Which No. 1’s and which No. 2’s should you start in fantasy this week? Read my Start and Sit column for Week 6 to find out.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 6

Quarterbacks

7. Lamar Jackson, BLT at TEN

30.3-216-1.27-0.61 and 7.2-41-0.30 = 18.4

8. Justin Fields, CHI vs. MIN

30.1-221-1.64-0.96 and 6.4-31-0.20 = 17.8

9. Russell Wilson, DEN at KC

32.1-237-1.64-0.55 and 2.7-17-0.09 = 17.2

Russell Wilson’s 2.47 expected touchdown surplus is the fifth biggest among quarterbacks this season. That would scare me for a skill player. But quarterbacks have more control over their touchdown surpluses and shortfalls than skill players do. And Wilson’s surplus follows a predictable pattern of regression. The veteran had touchdown surpluses of 13.7, 3.2, 11.4 and 7.2 from 2018 to 2021 — also all in the top 10 — before he slipped to an uncharacteristic 2.1-touchdown shortfall in 2022. I’m back in and ready to routinely start Wilson in fantasy again — unless Broncos head coach Sean Payton decides to blame Wilson for his defensive problems.

10. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. NO

36.1-279-1.30-0.33 and 2.3-8-0.07 = 17.0

Week 5 was more of the same for C.J. Stroud. The rookie continues to rank top five with both his 186 pass attempts and his 23.8% passing DVOA. The latter lands him just ahead of Patrick Mahomes’ 23.6% rate. I would start him even against a stout Saints defense.

11. Joe Burrow, CIN vs. SEA

36.9-249-1.59-0.74 and 2.8-7-0.13 = 16.3

Joe Burrow righted his fantasy ship with 317 passing yards and three touchdowns Sunday. But he enjoyed that success against a Cardinals opponent whose 33.2% pass defense DVOA is the third worst in football. I’m not actually worried about Burrow’s passing numbers. But the Bengals star still has just 10 yards on 12 carries this season, and his 75 carries for 257 yards and five touchdowns spurred his top five fantasy success in 2022. I want to see Burrow run before I trust his hip injury is behind him. Start him against the Seahawks this week, but be wary in DFS.

12. Brock Purdy, SF at CLV

27.5-244-1.49-0.33 and 1.8-3-0.15 = 16.2

Even after a four-touchdown outburst in Week 5, Brock Purdy suffers the second-most net stolen touchdowns this season (1.24). And that seems likely to continue with Christian McCaffrey on his team and in a potential narrative push for MVP consideration. But even yielding as much work and red zone work to McCaffrey as he has, Purdy has still climbed into the top 10 with his 28 red zone pass attempts. The 49ers offense may simply be that talented. And I’ve come around on Purdy as a fantasy asset. He’s my final quarterback start in Week 6. If he could handle the Cowboys defense, then I expect him to handle the Browns defense.

13. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. IND

36.1-249-1.34-0.65 and 3.5-15-0.12 = 16.2

Trevor Lawrence may have suffered a bit of poor touchdown luck to start this season. His new goal-line back Tank Bigsby has run in a pair of touchdowns from the 1-yard line. And Travis Etienne has flipped his unlucky 2022 script and scored a couple of breakaway touchdowns from 26 and 35 yards from the end zone. Over time, Lawrence will likely see some share of those similar drives end in passing touchdowns. That said, the third-year quarterback has a modest 19 red zone pass attempts this season, tied for just 24th among quarterbacks. I would bench Lawrence if you landed C.J. Stroud or Brock Purdy off of waivers until his Jaguars ramp up their red zone trips.

14. Sam Howell, WAS at ATL

35.5-250-1.35-1.07 and 3.1-21-0.08 = 15.9

Sam Howell does not share Russell Wilson’s history of touchdown surpluses. And it’s very possible the first-time starter is suffering his 3.89 expected touchdown shortfall because of a lesser skill set than his contemporary quarterback starters. He was a fifth-round draft pick after all. Still, Howell may make a better case to start in fantasy than in reality. The sophomore quarterback has 191 pass attempts — fourth most at the position — and seems to find himself in frequent pass-friendly game scripts. He may be the poor man’s Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile, Howell has ramped up his rushing contributions from five attempts the first three weeks to 10 attempts the last two weeks. And he demonstrated that capability with a 183-attempt, 828-yard rushing season at North Carolina. I am projecting Howell for a 17.0% carry share that is tied for seventh highest among quarterbacks in Week 6, and I would start him in a 16-team or two-quarterback league.

15. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. ARZ

37.1-267-1.51-0.93 and 1.4-5-0.07 = 15.8

Matthew Stafford has suffered a 2.56 expected touchdown shortfall that is eighth biggest among quarterbacks. He may not bolster his fantasy value with his rushing the way Sam Howell has of late. But I’m much more confident Stafford will see his touchdown rate increase. The veteran has yielded five rushing touchdowns to Kyren Williams from within 7 yards of the end zone this season.

16. Deshaun Watson, CLV vs. SF

33.4-232-1.37-0.80 and 3.6-19-0.09 = 15.6

17. Geno Smith, SEA at CIN

32.6-234-1.53-0.55 and 2.2-10-0.03 = 15.6

18. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. DET

34.0-235-1.50-0.75 and 3.7-10-0.04 = 15.1

19. Dak Prescott, DAL at LAC

34.5-238-1.53-0.93 and 2.1-8-0.06 = 14.9

20. Jared Goff, DET at TB

33.5-257-1.26-0.57 and 1.3-2-0.09 = 14.9

Running Backs

20. Dameon Pierce, HST vs. NO

18.0-62-0.47 and 2.7-2.0-14-0.05 = 11.8

21. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. SF

13.7-58-0.44 and 3.1-2.3-16-0.10 = 11.7

22. Jonathan Taylor, IND at JAX

12.9-60-0.45 and 2.4-1.8-13-0.05 = 11.2

23. Brian Robinson, WAS at ATL

15.2-61-0.47 and 2.0-1.5-11-0.06 = 11.2

24. Zack Moss, IND at JAX

12.9-63-0.39 and 2.2-1.7-13-0.06 = 11.1

The Colts will reportedly ramp up star running back Jonathan Taylor’s workload in Week 6. I have Taylor as a start. But after Zack Moss played his usual 80% of snaps in Week 5 and ran for 165 yards and two touchdowns, I’m not so quick to dismiss his at least short-term potential fantasy value. It’s only a semi-educated guess, but I am projecting Taylor and Moss for the same 44.5% carry shares this week. That is tied for 26th at the position and much higher than they would be if Anthony Richardson were healthy and handling a bunch of carries himself.

25. Alexander Mattison, MIN at CHI

12.3-51-0.42 and 2.9-2.1-13-0.11 = 10.7

Incumbent Vikings starter Alexander Mattison has slipped from 70%-plus snap shares the first three weeks to 69% and 51% shares the last two weeks. I’ve heard whispers that head coach Kevin O’Connell could ride the hot hand at the position. But Cam Akers hasn’t exactly teased it with identical 29% snap shares his first two weeks with the team. I’m nervous enough to project Mattison for 54.5% carry share that is the lowest I have had him this season. But the veteran has also suffered a 3.71 expected touchdown shortfall that is the second biggest among running backs this year. He could lose some work and still score more for fantasy with a few more touchdowns. I wouldn’t panic. You can flex Mattison in Week 6.

26. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at LV

11.8-45-0.30 and 3.3-2.4-17-0.06 = 9.5

Rhamondre Stevenson weathered the storm of his Week 1 illness and speculated Week 4 Ezekiel Elliott snap increase in a potential revenge game against the Cowboys. The incumbent Patriots back has a 53% carry share that is a bit up from his 49% share in 2022 and is top 15 at the position. But Stevenson’s circumstances seem to have sabotaged his fantasy potential. The Patriots have bottom-five run-blocking with 3.51 adjusted line yards. And quarterback Mac Jones has yet to bounce back despite his perceived offensive coordinator upgrade to Bill O’Brien and could conceivably be benched any day now. You probably have to flex Stevenson based on his volume. But I’m much more pessimistic with his 26th ranking at the position this week.

27. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at TB

7.8-35-0.20 and 4.0-3.2-22-0.09 = 9.1

Hopeful Jahmyr Gibbs drafters can let go of his short-term touchdown potential.

But the versatile rookie salvages some fantasy value with his 15% target share that is sixth highest at the position. If Gibbs returns from his hamstring injury on Sunday, then I would return him to your half- and full-PPR fantasy lineups.

28. Ezekiel Elliott, NE at LV

10.9-42-0.36 and 2.8-2.1-12-0.06 = 8.9

Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t fared any better than Rhamondre Stevenson on a per-touch basis. The former Cowboys star has seen his yards after contact average decline from 3.10 in 2019 to 2.79, 2.57, 1.87 and 1.79 the last four seasons. But Elliott has also seen his snap share spike to 40% and 46% the last two weeks. He’s an unappealing volume start.

29. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. MIN

8.6-39-0.29 and 2.9-2.4-16-0.07 = 8.9

With Justin Herbert running less and Khalil Herbert poised to miss the next few weeks with a high-ankle sprain, Roschon Johnson has a chance to become at least a temporary RB2. But I would temper your expectations. Even if the rookie clears concussion protocol to play the Vikings this weekend, he could find himself in a new timeshare with veteran D’Onta Foreman. I am projecting Johnson for a 40.5% carry share that is tied for 30th highest at the position. You can flex him if he plays, but you might can find better alternatives at wide receiver.

30. Miles Sanders, CAR at MIA

10.7-45-0.32 and 2.9-2.0-11-0.04 = 8.8

Miles Sanders has slipped from 57-65% snap shares the first three weeks to 43-46% shares the last two weeks. Did that dip follow his recent groin injury? Was he temporarily benched for his Week 5 fumble, his second of the season? Has teammate Chuba Hubbard earned more playing time? Who knows! But if I have to pick one, I’ll still side with Sanders. He has nearly doubled Hubbard up with 24 targets to 14 this season.

31. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at MIA

10.3-45-0.24 and 2.4-1.9-13-0.05 = 8.5

Chuba Hubbard may not match Miles Sanders for receiving productivity. But the third-year Panthers back has taken a major step forward in his 23% broken tackle rate, top 15 among the 50 backs with 25 or more carries. You should probably bench him in what figures to be a pass-friendly Panthers game script in Miami. But put Hubbard on your fantasy benches to see if his workload continues to increase.

32. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. WAS

10.2-41-0.29 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.04 = 7.5

I thought I saw a pattern in Tyler Allgeier’s decline from a 56% snap share in Week 1 to 44%, 30%, and 26% shares the next three weeks. But then the sophomore back spiked back to a 44% share in Week 5 and out-carried Bijan Robinson 17 to 14. Classic Arthur Smith. I would still bench Allgeier this weekend. But he will probably score two touchdowns if you do.

33. Gus Edwards, BLT at TEN

11.2-49-0.29 and 0.9-0.7-4-0.02 = 7.5

The Ravens running back picture was muddy enough when Gus Edwards and Justice Hill were alternating snap share leads and touchdowns the first month of the season. But now undrafted overachiever Keaton Mitchell could make his season debut. I would avoid this backfield for the time being.

34. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. SF

7.5-29-0.23 and 2.1-1.6-12-0.05 = 6.6

35. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. BLT

4.9-24-0.12 and 3.4-2.6-16-0.09 = 6.6

36. Justice Hill, BLT at TEN

7.6-33-0.27 and 1.6-1.3-8-0.03 = 6.5

37. Javonte Williams, DEN at KC

7.3-30-0.18 and 2.4-1.8-11-0.05 = 6.3

38. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN at KC

5.9-30-0.17 and 1.9-1.5-10-0.06 = 6.1

39. Antonio Gibson, WAS at ATL

3.5-14-0.11 and 3.3-2.6-22-0.09 = 6.0

40. Cam Akers, MIN at CHI

6.8-25-0.21 and 2.0-1.6-11-0.04 = 5.9

41. Samaje Perine, DEN at KC

4.3-18-0.11 and 2.7-2.1-19-0.08 = 5.8

42. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at NYJ

6.1-25-0.20 and 1.8-1.4-10-0.04 = 5.6

43. Joshua Kelley, LAC vs. DAL

8.2-31-0.25 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.5

44. D’Onta Foreman, CHI vs. MIN

6.9-31-0.20 and 1.3-0.9-6-0.02 = 5.5

45. Devin Singletary, HST vs. NO

5.6-24-0.17 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.04 = 5.1

46. Elijah Mitchell, SF at CLV

7.0-30-0.19 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 5.0

47. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. DEN

1.5-6-0.04 and 2.7-2.1-17-0.16 = 4.6

48. Emari Demercado, ARZ at LA

5.8-22-0.17 and 1.3-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.5

49. Rico Dowdle, DAL at LAC

5.0-20-0.15 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.1

50. Keaontay Ingram, ARZ at LA

5.9-19-0.16 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.02 = 4.0

51. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at CIN

4.5-20-0.14 and 1.1-0.8-6-0.03 = 4.0

Wide Receivers

20. Christian Kirk, JAX vs. IND

8.2-5.5-65-0.35 = 11.5

21. Jordan Addison, MIN at CHI

7.9-5.1-66-0.38 = 11.4

22. DK Metcalf, SEA at CIN

7.2-4.8-62-0.43 = 11.2

23. Zay Flowers, BLT at TEN

7.7-5.4-62-0.31 = 11.1

24. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. BLT

8.2-5.2-66-0.31 = 11.1

25. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. CAR

6.9-4.5-66-0.34 = 11.1

26. Marquise Brown, ARZ at LA

8.5-5.2-60-0.37 = 11.0

27. Chris Godwin, TB vs. DET

7.9-5.7-62-0.31 = 11.0

28. Deebo Samuel, SF at CLV

5.8-3.6-51-0.24 = 11.0

29. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. SF

7.6-4.6-64-0.38 = 10.9

30. Terry McLaurin, WAS at ATL

7.3-5.1-65-0.29 = 10.9

31. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. PHI

8.5-4.8-60-0.37 = 10.7

32. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. NE

7.2-5.0-57-0.39 = 10.5

Jakobi Meyers missed Week 2 with a concussion. But in the other four weeks this season, the new Raiders receiver has a 26% target share that ties him for 16th at the position with Chris Olave and Mike Evans. And while he seems unlikely to match Evans’ always-prolific touchdown total, Meyers does have seven red zone targets, tied for ninth most among receivers this year. The Patriots rules no longer apply, and Meyers looks like clear flex option facing his former team Sunday.

33. Michael Thomas, NO at HST

7.9-5.2-58-0.31 = 10.2

Michael Thomas didn’t score the touchdown last weekend he is overdue to score with his now 1.67 expected touchdowns this season. But the veteran did continue his streak of between 6 and 9 targets every game this season. He’s close if not all the way back to his pre-injury fantasy standard, and I would start him with confidence in Week 6.

34. Gabe Davis, BUF vs. NYG

5.8-3.5-59-0.40 = 10.1

I’m not sure I’ll ever feel confident in Gabe Davis’ boom-or-bust fantasy prospects. But I continue to project Davis with the highest yards and touchdowns per reception rates at his position. And he has now scored touchdowns in four straight weeks. You pretty much have to start him at this point.

35. Tyler Lockett, SEA at CIN

6.6-4.5-53-0.37 = 9.7

Round 1 rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 5.0 targets per game in the first month of the season and will have a chance to improve that after a Week 5 bye. But despite his and the rookie’s potential slot overlap, the 31-year-old Tyler Lockett has hardly slowed down. The veteran leads his receiver room with an 81% snap share and has a pair of touchdowns to keep pace with his streak of five straight seasons with eight or more touchdowns. My flex starter ranking may be too pessimistic for Lockett.

36. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at KC

6.6-4.5-59-0.26 = 9.7

Jerry Jeudy has lagged behind his teammate Courtland Sutton in fantasy scoring thanks to the latter’s three touchdowns this season. But the Alabama product has seen more consistent targets since his return from a hamstring injury. And Jeudy could bridge some of that touchdown gap with better luck with his 0.71 expected touchdown shortfall. 

37. K.J. Osborn, MIN at CHI

7.5-4.5-53-0.30 = 9.4

The Athletic reporter Alex Lewis suggested K.J. Osborn would “slide seamlessly” into Justin Jefferson’s typical X receiver role. Probably about as well as I would slide into Wright Thompson’s feature writing role at ESPN. But Osborn and the rookie Jordan Addison are the only Vikings wide receivers with more than 10 targets next to Jefferson this season. And I am projecting the veteran for a bumped up 20.5% target share in Week 6 that is 42nd at the position. I think you can flex him.

38. Courtland Sutton, DEN at KC

6.6-4.2-51-0.35 = 9.3

Courtland Sutton’s three touchdowns in just five weeks may seem excessive for a player with just four touchdowns combined over the past three seasons. But Sutton suffered a 4.19 expected touchdown shortfall in 2022 that was second highest at his position. I may rank him behind his teammate Jerry Jeudy, but I believe Sutton can score eight or more touchdowns this season and see him as a flex starter in even shallow fantasy formats.

39. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. DAL

7.1-4.4-52-0.30 = 9.2

Joshua Palmer played a sneaky 54-64% of snaps the first three weeks even with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He didn’t have the room to jump like his rookie teammate Quentin Johnston when Williams tore his ACL. But Palmer did jump from his 11% target share from the first three weeks to a 33% share in Week 4 that was top 10 at his position. And I am projecting the veteran for an 18.5% target share in his return from the bye that is tied for 46th at the position. You can start him this week.

40. Drake London, ATL vs. WAS

7.0-4.1-50-0.34 = 9.1

Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder’s Week 5 signs of life spurred Drake London’s season-high nine targets and 78 yards last Sunday. Those are relatively modest totals for a No. 1 receiver pick in his NFL draft class. But London makes his fantasy case with seven red zone targets, tied for ninth most at his position. He’s his team’s definitive No. 1 receiver. But London has a Gabe Davis fantasy profile — just without the same chance of a 98-yard touchdown catch.

41. Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. SEA

6.8-4.7-50-0.25 = 8.9

Tyler Boyd entered Week 5 with modest average increases of 0.5 catches, 10 yards and 1.0 fantasy points in his nine games with either Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase out since 2021. And lost in his teammate Chase’s 15-catch, 192-yard, three-touchdown performance, Boyd teased that same short-term increase with six catches, up from his 4.3-catch average from the first four weeks. I am projecting Boyd for a 20.0% target share that is tied for 43rd among receiver in Week 6, and I would make him one of my final flex starts.

42. Tank Dell, HST vs. NO

5.5-3.5-50-0.26 = 8.5

Tank Dell suffered an apparent concussion last Sunday. But if he clears protocol and plays in Week 6, I would continue to start him. Dell spiked from a 48% snap share in Week 1 to between 61-79% shares the next three weeks. And on Sunday, Dell played 57% of snaps on Sunday before he suffered the head injury.

43. Josh Downs, IND at JAX

6.5-4.4-49-0.23 = 8.4

Josh Downs owes a chunk of his season-high 97 yards from last Sunday to a deep 38-yard reception that may not be typical for the 5-foot-10 slot receiver. But the rookie has a 21% target share this season that ranks top 40 at the position. And it should help his volume to transition from a run-versatile quarterback in Anthony Richardson to a pocket passer in Gardner Minshew. I am projecting Minshew for 36.0 pass attempts this week, 4.4 more than I projected for Richardson last week and eighth most at the position. You can start Downs in a bye-week pinch.

44. Robert Woods, HST vs. NO

6.8-4.1-45-0.24 = 7.9

The 31-year-old Robert Woods may not match his younger teammates Nico Collins and Tank Dell for explosive potential. But in C.J. Stroud’s high volume passing offense, the veteran has seen between 6 and 10 targets every week. He is close to flex value. And if Dell ended up sitting in Week 6 with his concussion, then Woods would be startable.

45. Curtis Samuel, WAS at ATL

4.8-3.6-39-0.21 = 7.8

46. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. SF

6.7-3.9-43-0.21 = 7.8

47. Jahan Dotson, WAS at ATL

6.3-3.7-41-0.30 = 7.8

48. Kendrick Bourne, NE at LV

5.6-3.5-44-0.24 = 7.8

49. Tutu Atwell, LA vs. ARZ

5.0-3.0-36-0.20 = 7.0

50. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at BUF

5.2-3.8-35-0.18 = 6.6

51. DJ Chark, CAR at MIA

5.0-2.7-39-0.21 = 6.5

52. Brandin Cooks, DAL at LAC

5.2-3.1-35-0.20 = 6.5

53. Rondale Moore, ARZ at LA

3.7-2.6-25-0.12 = 6.4

54. Kadarius Toney, KC vs. DEN

4.5-3.2-30-0.19 = 6.4

55. Rashee Rice, KC vs. DEN

4.3-2.9-33-0.25 = 6.4

Tight Ends

4. Sam LaPorta, DET at TB

5.9-4.6-52-0.38 = 9.7

5. Evan Engram, JAX vs. IND

7.0-5.3-51-0.23 = 9.2

6. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. MIN

5.9-4.4-46-0.38 = 9.0

7. Darren Waller, NYG at BUF

6.4-4.3-47-0.26 = 8.4

8. George Kittle, SF at CLV

4.9-3.6-45-0.34 = 8.3

9. Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYJ

5.5-4.2-46-0.24 = 8.2

10. Jake Ferguson, DAL at LAC

5.5-4.0-38-0.31 = 7.6

If he continues his three-week scoreless drought for another few weeks, then Jake Ferguson will make me look bad. But as things stand, I continue to expect the new Cowboys starter to score touchdowns in bunches the rest of the season. Ferguson is leading tight ends with 11 red zone targets, three more than Travis Kelce in second place. And Ferguson leads the position with a 1.72 expected touchdown shortfall.

11. Zach Ertz, ARZ at LA

6.2-4.1-34-0.33 = 7.4

Zach Ertz faded from his former No. 1 tight end target share with a modest four targets and 10 yards last Sunday. But the veteran remains top three at the position with a 23% target share. And his Sunday touchdown bumped him into the top three at the position with seven red zone targets, as well. The more I see, the more I’m convinced Ertz is a TE1.

12. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. WAS

6.2-3.4-41-0.24 = 7.3

Kyle Pitts caught one more pass for 20 more yards than his tight end teammate Jonnu Smith last Sunday. Hang the banner. I guess keep rolling Pitts out there and praying.

13. David Njoku, CLV vs. SF

4.9-3.8-38-0.23 = 7.1

I’m not sure what to expect from the Browns offense after just two games without star running back Nick Chubb — and one of them with backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. But tight end David Njoku did see his season high of seven targets in the team’s most recent outing in Week 4. Perhaps he can push for his former TE1 standard if Deshaun Watson can play this week?

14. Logan Thomas, WAS at ATL

4.8-3.3-33-0.27 = 6.5

Logan Thomas lags behind the positional leader Jake Ferguson with 4 versus 11 red zone targets. But Thomas matches Ferguson and ties for the tight end lead with four targets inside the 5-yard line. The veteran could plausibly continue his pace of a touchdown every two weeks over the rest of the season, and I think he is close to TE1 status because of it.

15. Hunter Henry, NE at LV

4.5-3.1-34-0.24 = 6.4

It’s difficult to catch touchdowns when your quarterback doesn’t throw any over a two-week stretch. But while Week 5’s Patriots shutout spurred some pessimism for the veteran tight end, Hunter Henry still ranks sixth at his position with 148 routes run. The Mike Gesicki addition has not hampered his offensive role. I am projecting Henry for a 13.5% target share that is tied for 19th among tight ends. I just wouldn’t start him in shallow formats until I saw some signs of life in the offense around him.

16. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. PHI

4.7-3.3-35-0.18 = 6.2

17. Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. WAS

4.4-3.1-34-0.18 = 6.0

18. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. BLT

4.7-3.2-32-0.19 = 6.0

19. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. NO

4.3-2.8-28-0.26 = 5.8

20. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. NYG

3.9-2.7-27-0.26 = 5.6

21. Cade Otton, TB vs. DET

4.3-3.0-28-0.21 = 5.6

22. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. ARZ

4.3-2.8-29-0.16 = 5.2

23. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NYG

3.7-2.9-26-0.20 = 5.2

24. Gerald Everett, LAC vs. DAL

3.5-2.6-26-0.18 = 4.9

25. Noah Fant, SEA at CIN

3.1-2.4-27-0.16 = 4.9

26. Mike Gesicki, NE at LV

3.7-2.4-26-0.18 = 4.9

27. Kylen Granson, IND at JAX

3.6-2.4-22-0.15 = 4.3

28. Taysom Hill, NO at HST

0.8-0.5-5-0.04 = 4.2

29. Juwan Johnson, NO at HST

3.0-1.9-21-0.16 = 4.0

30. Irv Smith, CIN vs. SEA

3.4-2.2-19-0.16 = 3.9

31. Hayden Hurst, CAR at MIA

2.9-2.1-19-0.14 = 3.8