Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Oklahoma City Thunder
Portland Trail Blazers
Utah Jazz
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
And then there were four.
The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs delivered chaos, upsets and breakout performances. The Knicks stunned the defending champion Celtics. The Pacers ran the top-seeded Cavaliers off the floor. Out West, the young-and-hungry Thunder continued their rise, while the Timberwolves, despite a revamped roster, knocked out the Warriors to return to the Western Conference Finals.
Now, the stage is set. In the East, it’s a throwback showdown: Knicks vs. Pacers in a high-stakes rematch of last year’s grudge match. In the West, it’s a clash between regular season champion Thunder and a Minnesota team trying to go further into the playoffs than they were able to last year.
In this preview, we’ll break down both series in detail, highlighting key matchups, sharing FTN’s 10,000-series simulation results, and revealing official series predictions from FTN’s NBA experts. Let’s get into it.
Before we break down the numbers and predictions, here’s a quick look at the storylines heading into each series.
A week ago, few would have predicted a Knicks-Pacers matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals. But here we are.
The Knicks just pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in recent playoff history, eliminating the defending champion Celtics. What makes the feat even more impressive is that New York had taken a 2-1 series lead and was on the verge of going up 3-1 before Boston star Jayson Tatum went down with injury. This wasn’t a fluke. The Knicks were beating the title favorites at full strength.
Despite limping into the playoffs, unable to beat any elite teams in the regular season, the Knicks believed in their playoff pedigree. And once again, Jalen Brunson has delivered. He’s been one of the league’s best postseason players and continues to build a legacy that’s quickly entering all-time Knick territory.
Indiana has been just as dangerous. After finishing the regular season as the 4-seed, the Pacers dismantled a 64-win Cavaliers team in five games. There was only one truly competitive contest in the entire series. Indiana’s edge comes from its depth and tempo. The Pacers keep bodies fresh and play faster than anyone, leading all remaining teams in points per game.
This is a rematch of last year’s second-round battle, but this time it’s for a trip to the NBA Finals. Both teams are surging at the perfect time.
The West features a more expected contender, facing a dark horse no one expected to be back.
Oklahoma City has looked like a juggernaut all season. After a 68-win campaign, the Thunder have lived up to the hype. While their youth showed at times against Denver, their depth, defense and the MVP-level play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander proved too much to handle. With elite defenders at nearly every position, OKC has the most complete roster left in the field.
Meanwhile, Minnesota wasn’t supposed to be here. After trading Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason, expectations dipped. But Julius Randle has brought toughness, and the Timberwolves have gelled at the right time. Following a slow start, they’ve surged into the playoffs with momentum, and they’re out to prove last year’s Conference Finals run was no fluke.
Let’s dive deep into the matchup between the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers.
The Knicks have a chance to get revenge against Indiana for last year’s playoffs. This year’s Knicks roster is completely different than the one that lost to the Pacers in seven games last year. The biggest difference is health. Last year, Mitchell Robinson missed the series, OG Anunoby got hurt in Game 2, Josh Hart got hurt in Game 5 (though he played through it), and Jalen Brunson went out in the middle of Game 7. By the end of that series, the Knicks simply ran out of healthy bodies. Now they are healthy, plus they’ve added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges to the team. The Pacers will hardly recognize the Knicks team they’re facing.
On the other side, continuity is the key for the Pacers. Not much has changed with their roster since last season, and right now, that is looking like a smart decision. While there has been individual development from some of their younger players, it’s their cohesion that really stands out when they play. Facing a Knicks game that is still learning how to play with one another, the Pacers know exactly what they want to do.
Across all three games, the Knicks won the offensive efficiency battle and held Indiana under 30% from three in two matchups. Limiting the Pacers’ success from deep will be critical in this series.
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Team | Series Odds |
| New York Knicks | -145 |
| Indiana Pacers | +125 |
New York opens as a slight favorite at home despite Indiana’s dominant second-round performance against the Cavaliers.
FTN’s simulation model ran this series 10,000 times, and the results give the edge to the Knicks.
| Outcome | Win Rate | Implied Odds |
| NYK in 4 | 10.1% | +890 |
| NYK in 5 | 17.6% | +468 |
| NYK in 6 | 19.5% | +413 |
| NYK in 7 | 16.7% | +499 |
| Knicks to Win | 63.9% | -177 |
| IND in 4 | 3.5% | +2757 |
| IND in 5 | 8.2% | +1120 |
| IND in 6 | 11.6% | +762 |
| IND in 7 | 12.8% | +681 |
| Pacers to Win | 36.1% | +177 |
The most likely single outcome is Knicks in 6 (19.5%). The model projects a competitive series, with New York favored overall.
Asking me to avoid bias here is like asking a bird not to fly, but I’ll do my best penguin impression and give an honest pick. On paper, the Knicks are the better team. Jalen Brunson is the best player in the series, and New York has more top-end talent across its seven-man rotation. There is a reason the Knicks are -145 at DraftKings. But this Pacers team is a serious thorn in the Knicks’ side. They’ll pressure the ball for 94 feet, not necessarily to generate turnovers, but to speed up the game and wear down opponents. And that caused problems for the Knicks in last year’s playoffs. Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season after dismantling a 64-win Cavaliers team in five games. They’re cohesive, deep and relentless. This series is going to be a grind, and it could go either way. I’ll take the Knicks in 7, largely because of homecourt advantage, and because in clutch moments, there’s no one I’d rather have with the ball than Jalen Brunson.
The Pick: Knicks in 7
The Eastern Conference Finals features a historic rivalry, with the Knicks and Pacers set to square off for the ninth time in a playoff series. Indiana has gotten the best of New York in the past series, including last year’s conference semifinals on the heels of a record-breaking shooting performance in Game 7, making 67% of their field goals. However, the Knicks are a much different team than last season, most notably losing Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein, but gaining Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. The Knicks have been a wagon for the FTN community all season long, and I’m backing them once again to move onto the finals and close the series in six games. They’ve been the better team across the board in terms of record, offensive rating, and net rating, likely entering the Conference Finals with a chip on their shoulder, looking for redemption.
The Pick: Knicks in 6
I’m pretty excited to see how both of these conference final matchups unfold, but if I had to pick one series to watch exclusively it would be the uncertainty of the Eastern Conference. Neither of these teams were expected to sniff the third round just a couple of weeks ago. Now we’ve got a rematch of last season’s East semis that carried over into a WWE appearance for both All-Star point guards a month later. Just like last year, I’ve got this series going the distance but a different outcome when all is said and done.
I’m not just intrigued by the talent on each side of this one, keep an eye on the coaching matchup as well. Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle is much more flexible in both his mid-game and in-series adjustments, as well as running a much deeper rotation than your average playoff team. New York’s Tom Thibodeau on the other hand will brute force his desired play style and rotation no matter the circumstances. Which coaching staff “blinks” first will be notable. The Pacers free flowing and fast paced offense is on fire and will push the Knicks tight rotation to the brink, but I’ve got New York winning in seven games and can’t wait for the content that will hit our timelines from outside MSG if that comes to pass.
The Pick: Knicks in 7
Go New York Go! The Knicks are just four wins away from their first trip to the NBA Finals since 1999—but they can’t afford to overlook a talented Pacers team that comes into Madison Square Garden for Game 1 on Wednesday.
Indiana has made life difficult for both the Bucks and Cavaliers, using full-court pressure and crisp ball movement to expose defensive lapses. That said, context matters: Milwaukee lacked reliable two-way players outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and their bench contributed just 11 points in their Game 5 elimination. Cleveland was ravaged by injuries, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter all playing through significant issues.
The Knicks, by contrast, are healthy, battle-tested, and better equipped to handle Indiana’s tempo. They’ve already handled the physicality of Detroit and the shooting power of Boston. With more top-end talent, a flexible game plan, and one of the best closers in the league in Jalen Brunson, New York should get it done, though it may take 6 or 7 games.
Pick: Knicks in 6
This isn’t the matchup I expected, but it should be a fun series between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. Both teams benefited from facing injured opponents in the previous round, but they still played high-level basketball.
The Knicks remained poised in big moments, raising their level and relying on the best player in the series, Jalen Brunson, to take down the defending champion Boston Celtics. The Pacers, meanwhile, overwhelmed the Cleveland Cavaliers with their speed, depth, and size.
This projects to be a close matchup, but I think Indiana holds a few key advantages.
Rick Carlisle is a better tactician than Tom Thibodeau and has more flexibility in his rotation to adapt as the series evolves. Brunson will face defenders who have the size and discipline to hold their ground in the lane and contest his fadeaways. On the other end, Tyrese Haliburton may struggle at times against Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, but he’ll still be the fastest player on the floor in most lineups. Karl-Anthony Towns is the most skilled big man in the series offensively, but Myles Turner can bother him with length and will make him work on both ends.
The margins are thin, but I give Indiana the edge in those critical matchups. The Knicks will have their moments, especially if “Big Game Brunson” takes over late, but I expect this series to resemble Indiana’s last one: decisive, fast-paced, and controlled.
Pick: Pacers in 6
Let’s dive deep into the matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander aren’t just two of the league’s brightest young stars. They’re both making a serious case to be the next face of the NBA.
Edwards, just 23, has become a postseason force. His athleticism, swagger and clutch shot-making have drawn comparisons to some of the game’s greats, and he’s backed it up with big performances in must-win moments. His ability to elevate on both ends of the floor has turned Minnesota into a perennial playoff threat, despite major roster turnover.
On the other side, Gilgeous-Alexander has quietly built one of the most efficient, unstoppable offensive arsenals in the league. He’s the likely MVP after leading the Thunder to 68 wins, and he’s done it while anchoring one of the NBA’s most balanced two-way teams. His calm, calculated approach contrasts with Edwards’ explosive style, but both are equally lethal.
This series isn’t just about reaching the Finals. It’s about taking the next step in the superstar hierarchy. Whether it’s Edwards’ fire or SGA’s finesse, one of them is about to leap to the next echelon of the league.
The Thunder and Timberwolves split their four regular-season meetings 2–2, but injuries impacted Minnesota’s availability in most of them. Rudy Gobert appeared in just one of the games, a New Year’s Eve loss. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo were also unavailable for the final three matchups, which were all played around the All-Star break.
While the season series was even, Oklahoma City’s only decisive win came in the game where Minnesota committed 24 turnovers, leading to 31 Thunder points. The other three games were more competitive, with the Timberwolves winning two despite being shorthanded.
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Team | Series Odds |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -330 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +265 |
Oddsmakers see the Thunder as clear favorites after a dominant season and a strong playoff showing so far.
FTN’s model ran 10,000 simulations and gives a strong edge to Oklahoma City:
| Outcome | Win Rate | Implied Odds |
| OKC in 4 | 28.8% | +247 |
| OKC in 5 | 30.7% | +226 |
| OKC in 6 | 20.7% | +383 |
| OKC in 7 | 11.0% | +809 |
| Thunder To Win | 91.2% | -1036 |
| MIN in 4 | 0.6% | +16567 |
| MIN in 5 | 2.7% | +3604 |
| MIN in 6 | 1.5% | +6567 |
| MIN in 7 | 4.0% | +2400 |
| Timberwolves To Win | 8.8% | +1036 |
Call me crazy, but I’m picking the upset here. I’ve seen Anthony Edwards enter a series as the underdog enough times to know better than to count him out. But this isn’t just about Edwards. Julius Randle is playing the best basketball of his career, coming off a second-round series where he averaged over 25 points per game while being defended by Draymond Green, one of the best defenders of this era.
And don’t worry about depth. Minnesota is one of the few teams that can match Oklahoma City’s bench production and versatility. The key to this series is ball security. If the Timberwolves get careless and start turning it over, OKC will punish them in transition and take control of the series. But if Minnesota can force the Thunder into a halfcourt game, I trust their defense, and I trust Edwards to rise to the moment.
The Pick: Timberwolves in 7
The Western Conference Finals is shaping into a defensive battle featuring the top-ranked Thunder vs. the No. 6 Minnesota. The Timberwolves should be well-rested entering the series, playing only 10 games this postseason with only two losses since the start of the playoffs. Although OKC was pushed to the limit against Denver, Game 7 was a friendly reminder of how dominant the Thunder can be when they’re clicking on all cylinders. As great as Minnesota has looked over the past month, I’m backing the Thunder to advance to the finals and close the series in six games. No team was better than OKC in the regular season, led by the MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, finishing with the best record in the league and first overall in defensive rating (106.6) and net rating (12.7).
The Pick: Thunder in 6
The Thunder were one of the best regular season teams in NBA history this year. While that doesn’t always translate to playoff success, it sure feels like it’s their time after dispatching a beaten-up Denver team in Game 7 Sunday in a game they led by 40 in the second half. No disrespect to the Wolves, but the Thunder have them beat at nearly every position. It will take a herculean effort from Anthony Edwards and Co. to out-gun the two-way prowess of this OKC side.
Minnesota does have a slight experience advantage after making the third round last season. They won’t be afraid of the moment and if we see OKC come out uncertain in any game past the first one this Tuesday night, like we saw twice against Denver, my prediction could be toast early. Still, I’m trusting what my eyes saw all regular season and over the last month in postseason play. I’ve got the Western Conference’s top seed to advance to their first NBA Finals since 2011 in just five games.
The Pick: Thunder in 5
After falling to Dallas in last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves return to the same stage—this time facing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a young, deep, and dangerous Thunder squad.
Minnesota enters the series as a heavy underdog, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll compete. The Timberwolves share the ball well, take care of possessions, and have been elite on defense, ranking second in both forced turnovers and defensive rating this postseason. Anthony Edwards and company are also well-rested, having closed out the Warriors in just five games.
Oklahoma City has incredible depth and the likely MVP in SGA, but they’re coming off a grueling 7-game battle with Denver. Minnesota, while younger in years, actually has more playoff experience as a unit and won’t be intimidated by the moment.
If they limit mistakes and control the pace, the Timberwolves are very capable of pulling off the upset.
Pick: Timberwolves in 6
The Oklahoma City Thunder have arrived in the Western Conference Finals. This young, talented group just survived a grueling second-round battle against a seasoned Denver Nuggets team. The question now: did that experience harden them for a deep playoff run, or will there be a letdown after such an emotionally and physically taxing series?
Minnesota, by contrast, has cruised through the postseason, dispatching the Lakers and Warriors with little resistance. The Timberwolves know exactly what OKC is going through—last year, they beat Denver in a seven-game slugfest, only to follow it up with a flat performance in the Western Conference Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely the MVP, but Anthony Edwards will approach this series like he’s the best player on the floor every night. That head-to-head battle will be must-watch basketball and likely the matchup that defines the series.
If SGA and Edwards play to a draw—or close to it—the edge shifts to OKC in the supporting cast. Julius Randle has been excellent this postseason, but he’s about to face the best defense he’s seen yet. If he can’t overpower defenders like Lu Dort and Jalen Williams, Minnesota’s margin for error shrinks fast unless Edwards goes into full takeover mode.
I make the Thunder clear favorites. They’re deeper, more versatile, and battle-tested coming off their toughest test yet.
Pick: Thunder in 6
For more expert picks throughout the playoffs, check out FTN’s bet tracker, and be sure to join our Discord.
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