Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
This year’s MLB trade deadline is essentially an arms’ race, with competitive teams trading prospects for superstar arms to help them get into the playoffs and make a run at the World Series. This is a quick rundown of the fantasy-relevant players changing teams and effects on their rest-of-season value.
AL West
The Astros and Rangers are neck and neck, with the Angels still trying to make a push and do what they can to convince Shohei Ohtani to re-sign. The Astros and Rangers traded for former Mets teammates Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, respectively, and I’m sure there will come a time in the next two months where the two are squaring off against one another in a game. Perhaps even in the playoffs.
Houston Astros
Justin Verlander, SP
Kendall Graveman, RP
After his insane 2022 season (18-4 record, 1.75 ERA), Verlander returns home to Houston, where he was originally traded back in 2017 and spent four full seasons. Verlander’s 21% strikeout rate and 10% swinging-strike rate are his lowest marks since 2015. He has managed a 3.15 ERA (4.51 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA) but something tells me he will hit his stride and have his best two months. He should make his season debut for the Astros this Wednesday at home against the Guardians then line up for a two-start week (@ BAL, vs. LAA) the following week. This trade is boon for his fantasy value. Kendall Graveman joins a studly cast of relievers behind Ryan Pressly and has value in holds leagues. Graveman could grab an occasional save.
Texas Rangers
Max Scherzer, SP
Jordan Montgomery, SP
Chris Stratton, RP
Austin Hedges, C
Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery are welcomed additions to a staff that lost Jacob deGrom and currently has Nathan Eovaldi on IL. Scherzer is serving up a career-worst home run rate (1.92 HR/9), and the home park move is a slight downgrade for him (Citi Field is a top-three spot for pitchers). This season, Scherzer had a 2.18 ERA with just 4 HR allowed (41.1 IP) at home compared to 5.16 with 19 HR allowed (66.1 IP) away from Citi Field. Thankfully, he will face the Oakland A’s more often and lines up against them Aug. 8. Montgomery’s move is neutral though he’s bound to get more run support than he did with the Cardinals. Chris Stratton is a useless bullpen arm and Austin Hedges has no fantasy value, although he does provide relief for starting catcher Mitch Garver while Jonah Heim is out for the next month at least.
Los Angeles Angels
Lucas Giolito, SP
Reynaldo López, RP
C.J. Cron, 1B
Randal Grichuk, OF
Big moves here for the Angels as C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk reunite with the team that drafted him (Grichuk was selected one pick ahead of Mike Trout in 2009) and Lucas Giolito moves closer to his hometown (he’s from Los Angeles). Giolito’s value remains similar. While Cron and Grichuk get obvious park downgrades moving away from Coors Field, neither have been productive nor healthy with the Rockies. Familiar surroundings, better supporting cast and the Ohtani Effect should be positives for them.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays
Aaron Civale, SP
Adrian Sampson, SP/RP
Manuel Rodríguez, RP
A nice addition for the Rays’ staff with Aaron Civale, though they gave up a future All-Star in Kyle Manzardo. Civale was having a career year (2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) despite the dip in strikeout rate (from 24% last year to 19% this year). He moves from the eighth-best pitching park in Progressive to the second or third best in Tropicana.
Toronto Blue Jays
Jordan Hicks, RP
Paul DeJong, SS
Jordan Hicks loses value overall as long as Jordan Romano returns in a couple of weeks. Until then, Hicks should garner the bulk of save opportunities and should be in a good position to be a closer somewhere in 2024. Paul DeJong has had a bounceback year and should see plenty of playing time in the short term if Bo Bichette (knee) hits the IL. Though Bichette’s prognosis wasn’t as scary as originally perceived.
Baltimore Orioles
Jack Flaherty, SP
Jack Flaherty has had an up-and-down season but has maintained nearly a strikeout per inning (106 in 109.2) and is a welcomed addition to a fun Orioles’ team right in the thick of a divisional race. It’s a neutral fantasy move from a fantasy perspective. Flaherty will line up to face the Blue Jays in Toronto Thursday then would get the Houston Astros next week.
AL Central
No trades moving the needle here as the Twins stayed put, the White Sox traded away a good chunk of their talent — as did the Guardians, though the Guardians may come out winning here in the long run adding Manzardo and 20-year-old prospect Kahlil Watson. Jean Segura was traded to the Guardians to open up playing time for Marlins’ new acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Burger but was immediately released by the Guardians.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Lance Lynn, SP
Ryan Yarbrough, SP
Joe Kelly, RP
Amed Rosario, SS
Kiké Hernández, MI/OF
The Dodgers wanted to acquire two starting pitchers. They got one in Lance Lynn but couldn’t pull off a Verlander deal and had Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez invoke his no-trade clause to block a deal there. The Dodgers settled on veteran lefty Ryan Yarbrough from the Royals. Yarbrough has pitched well since coming off IL (2.19 ERA, 15:2 K:BB in four starts) prior to this deal. Not sure if Yarbrough has a set rotation spot here with Clayton Kershaw coming back, but he can work multiple innings out of the bullpen and make spot starts. Between him and Joe Kelly, it’s some solid bullpen help for a team that badly needed it. Lance Lynn has been arguably baseball’s worst starting pitcher this season so all eyes will be on how he performs in his Dodger debut Tuesday. Amed Rosario and Kiké Hernández are right-handed platoon bats to help balance out a lefty-heavy lineup as manager Dave Roberts will mix and match to his heart’s content. Hernandez is a fan favorite in L.A. and a human energy booster. Intangible value for this club, no doubt.
San Diego Padres
Rich Hill, SP
Scott Barlow, RP
Ji Man Choi, 1B
Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF
The Padres were close to being sellers until their series sweep this weekend, and I believe they make a strong push for the playoffs despite currently being on the outside looking in. Rich Hill has been serviceable this season, which says a lot for the league’s oldest player. He serves as insurance for Michael Wacha’s shoulder. Scott Barlow adds a much-needed bullpen arm along with Robert Suarez, who just came off IL. Especially since the Nick Martinez experiment hasn’t been going as well as planned. Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper are solid platoon bats which were much needed since their bench resembled a Double-A lineup prior to the trade deadline. Barlow can be dropped in all formats and the rest won’t be needle-movers outside of certain half-weeks when they face bad lefties (for Cooper) or bad righties (for Choi).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Paul Sewald, RP
Tommy Pham, OF
Jace Peterson, 2B/3B
Peter Strzelecki, RP
The Dbacks got their closer in Paul Sewald, making guys like Scott McGough and Kevin Ginkel easily droppable in 15-team leagues. Tommy Pham provides a power bat against southpaw starting pitchers and veteran Jace Peterson offers a bit of speed as pretty much a one-for-one replacement for Josh Rojas, though he has no fantasy value. The big winner here should be Seattle’s Andrés Muñoz, who should assume the closer gig to himself with the Mariners.
San Francisco Giants
AJ Pollock, OF
Mark Mathias, OF
Despite being in the playoff hunt, the Giants oddly did pretty much nothing at the trade deadline this year. They added two over-the-hill outfielders, one of whom (Pollock) is hitting .176 this season. Both can be used to platoon against left-handed pitching.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Sam Moll, RP
It’s odd that the Reds didn’t make any moves to address their rotation. Graham Ashcraft being good again might have been one of the reasons, but also, the timelines of return for Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. I still would have added a starting arm if I were them, but hey, I’m just a fantasy guy.
Milwaukee Brewers
Mark Canha, OF
Carlos Santana, 1B
Andrew Chafin, RP
The Brewers were quiet at the deadline, though they did add three veterans who will be more helpful in real life than in fantasy. The big winner here is Carlos Santana, who should provide some middle-of-lineup pop to a team that lost Rowdy Tellez and were in need of a veteran first baseman. Santana moving to Milwaukee is a fantasy upgrade. This is anecdotal, but Canha feels like a Brewers type of guy. He’s been so ineffective at the plate this season that I could see him catching fire and hitting well. Though it’ll be in a platoon against left-handed pitching.
Chicago Cubs
Anyone streaming Patrick Wisdom, Trey Mancini or Nick Madrigal in 15-teamers can go ahead and drop them with the arrival of full-time corner man, Jeimer Candelario. Candelario has 16 homers, which is just three shy of his career best mark from 2018. His .223 ISO is also a career best. He returns to the team he started his career with. Mancini was unfortunately designated for assignment.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS
Brad Hand, RP
Pierce Johnson, RP
The Braves were mostly quiet at the deadline because their collection of hitters and pitchers were already the best in baseball. They added some infield defense with Nicky Lopez and a couple of veteran arms to an already stacked bullpen. No fantasy value here to speak of.
Philadelphia Phillies
Michael Lorenzen, SP
Rodolfo Castro, 2B/3B
The Phillies added a solid control arm in Detroit’s Michael Lorenzen, and this deal is a bump upward for his fantasy value. Lorenzen 6.5% walk rate is the 15th-best mark among qualified starting pitchers this season. The Phillies also flipped pitcher Bailey Falter to the Pirates for some infield depth in Rodolfo Castro. They then designated Josh Harrison for assignment.
Miami Marlins
David Robertson, RP
Ryan Weathers, RP
Jorge López, RP
Jake Burger, 3B
Josh Bell, 1B
Quite some moves here for Kim Ng and crew, as this team looks different with some key upgrades. David Robertson’s fantasy value doesn’t change as he remains a closer, though A.J. Puk quickly lost his. Jake Burger and his MLB third-best ISO against left-handed pitching provides this offense with some much-needed pop. Josh Bell isn’t much of a fantasy asset anymore and essentially replaces Garrett Cooper in this offense. Jake Burger and Josh Bell should assume full-time roles at the corners. Jesús Sánchez moves to a lesser role with Avisaíl García returning. This is a sexy offense now with Luis Arraez, Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger as the front five.
