Early fantasy baseball busts and bargains for 2021

Every fantasy baseball season comes with an enormous amount of prep that usually begins sometime during winter. Regardless of the time and effort put in there will always be players selected inside the top-100 that end up busting. Draft multiple busts inside the top-100 and your team will likely be in danger of falling out of contention. The opposite side of that is finding players later in drafts that outperform their ADP, returning a profit while being a vital part of your team’s success.

Trying to figure out the busts and bargains isn’t easy, but my co-host (Matt Kupferle) of the FTN Fantasy Baseball Podcast and I dissected the current NFBC Draft Champions ADP to magnify a few potential hitters and pitchers.

Busts inside the top 100

Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

ADP 88, min 69, max 141

To be blunt, Suarez is a 2.5-category contributor when firing on all cylinders — 40-plus home runs, 100-plus RBIs, mid-80s runs. Currently going in the sixth round on average, Suarez’s upside would pay off his price. I won’t argue that. However, what if everything doesn’t click? We can’t dismiss the fact Suarez had shoulder surgery prior to the 2020 season. The delayed season certainly helped Suarez get ready in time for the shortened season. We didn’t see a negative impact with him being able to play every day for the Reds in 2020, but we have to take note of the procedure that was done.

The lack of stolen bases and an xBA of .246 since 2016 are two concerns that have me tepid off the top. But wait, there’s more. Suarez’s strikeout rate has increased every year since 2017 with 2020 (29.0%) being his worst yet. His swinging strike rate spiked to 12.2% last season and his contact rate continues to dip. 

Banking on the home runs and RBIs to be elite along with run production in a volatile Reds’ offense isn’t something I want to do. Tack on the shoulder woes, decrease in contact and increase in striking out. 30-plus home runs and 90 RBIs with a .250 average is too rich for me in the sixth round. You need everything to go right for Suarez to pay off his current 2021 price tag. — Matthew Davis

Ian Anderson, SP, Atlanta Braves

ADP 88, min 66, max 141

I guess we’re going ignoring the lack of innings here? Anderson’s career high in innings as a professional is 135.1 between AA and AAA in 2019. Fantasy owners are buying into a short and solid 2020 season that peaked under the bright lights in the playoffs. The growth and development will be fun to witness with Anderson, but don’t forget there are growing pains, especially in a season with 162 games.

Anderson’s walk rate was a concern in the minors, sitting in the double digits throughout all levels outside of rookie ball. His 29.7% strikeout rate is being highlighted, but his swing and miss stuff was average, with a swinging strike rate of 11.9%. With only three pitches in his toolbox, Anderson has to get better with his control and be consistent with it in 20-plus starts to provide a rewarding return in the sixth round.

Anderson’s three-pitch mix is being leaned on by the velocity difference in his fastball (94.1 MPH) and curveball (80.2 MPH). He then mixes in his changeup to keep hitters off balance. His repertoire and control issues have me projecting a K-BB rate of 15% or below. Tack on load management and the current cost is too much for me. How many innings do you expect? 160 max? That volume would be fine, but how many starts will be great enough to warrant the draft capital? Too many question marks for me.

Kyle Hendricks, Dylan Bundy and Julio Urías are all going shortly after Anderson, and I’d prefer all three. One last thing: Anderson is basically glued to José Berríos in ADP. I’d much rather go Berrios over Anderson if both are available in the sixth round. — Matthew Davis

DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B, free agent

ADP 30, min 17, max 43

The multi-position LeMahieu has been a fantasy dream for many owners in the last two seasons. After coming at a bargain-basement price in the past years (ADP 280 in 2019), LeMahieu was not only a fantasy asset — he smacked 29 home runs in ’19 — but he was a legitimate AL MVP candidate despite the Bronx Bombers missing significant time from sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

That pendulum, however, appears to have perhaps swung too far in the other direction. While LeMahieu, a pending free agent, will provide a premium floor in terms of batting average, Baseball Savant’s advanced stats show that the 1B/2B/3B may have been a bit lucky. His expected home run rate was only at 20 and leaving New York could be a major downfall. With a barrel rate of only 2.9%, placing him in the bottom 9% of the league, this screams regression.

Don’t get too wrapped around the axle here — LeMahieu should still be an excellent hitter and provide plenty of three category fantasy value (batting average, runs, runs batted in) — but is he worth the high cost without stolen bases and premium home run power? — Matt Kupferle

Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP 54, min 40, max 72

There’s no bigger Burnes fan Burnes than me — the flame-throwing right-hander was outstanding in 2020, logging a 2.11 ERA over 59.2 innings pitched with an absurd 36.7% strikeout rate. 

At this draft-day cost, however, you are betting on a major return on investment — but should you? As we take a long look at his track record, there are some warts here. His career high in innings pitched was back in 2017, with 145.2 innings split across two levels. Since then, he’s failed to post more than 120 innings in any season. Over the last three seasons, he’s also made a combined 33 starts.

That also ignores the actual data behind Burnes — a 10.0% walk rate, an above league-average strand rate of 80.1%, and a HR/9 rate of 0.30 that’s bound to regress. Fold in a juicy home park for hitters (Miller Park ranked 10th in ESPN’s home run factor), and this early-round pick could have you singing the blues. — Matt Kupferle

Bargains outside the top 200

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP 255, min 207, max 346

The Toronto offense began showing explosive and exciting glimpses in 2020. The awakening of Randal Grichuk. A coming-out party for Teoscar Hernández. The budding trio of Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beginning to blossom. Throw in the talented Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and you have yourself a damn good offense already. So where does Tellez come in?

Tellez had his own emergence in 2020 that started with an increase in walk rate (8.7%) and decrease in strikeout rate (15.7%). The 2020 career-high average of .283 is supported by a .286 xBA. Being a left-handed hitter could warrant concerns regarding maximizing volume if he ends up in a platoon, but Tellez can hold his own against left-handed pitchers, owning a career .318 wOBA, .198 ISO and 41.0% hard-hit rate.

Coming in at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Tellez provides plenty of pop in his bat, including a .258 ISO and 45% hard-hit rate last year. The 26-year-old is 80th percentile (via Statcast) in exit velocity, hard-hit%, xWOBA, xBA, K% and xSLG. 

First base gets watered down quickly, and Tellez is going in the 17th round on average. Seeing his growth and development mixed in with that of his teammates has me smitten. There is real upside here if the full-time job is his at first base. Projections will be down on the counting stats but I’m confident he crushes them in a full-time role. If so, an upside of 30-plus home runs with an average that won’t kill you should be welcomed with open arms. — Matthew Davis

Deivi García, SP, New York Yankees

ADP 322, min 255, max 399

Let’s start with what’s to like when looking to draft a raw starting pitcher, especially one coming into his age 22 season. García already logged 140-plus innings in 2019 across the minors. The Yankees are in win-now mode per usual, and they can’t afford to baby somebody like García who was a contributor down the stretch in 2020. The rotation is anchored by Gerrit Cole. Then who? Jordan Montgomery, García, Michael King and Domingo Germán are currently the projected starters according to Roster Resource. 

Fantasy players are going to be freaking out about an “innings limit” in 2021, but that apprehension should apply to most starters this season. The average number of innings pitched by starters is going to be as low in 2021 as it’s ever been, a result of the weird 2020 campaign. So if the mean of innings pitched is down across the league then García’s projected 150 innings isn’t as big of a gap.

Control was the worry coming into the majors, but García boasted an elite walk rate of 4.1% in 2020. I’m not completely sold the BB% sticks below sub-5%, but sub-10% would be good enough. Another year of big-league development should have the Yankees’ new pitching coach Matt Blake working on getting more out of García’s four-pitch mix. Last season, we saw a fastball rate close to 60%. Increasing his slider, curve and change should boost his strikeout rate.

Prospect pedigree and lack of current talent in the Yankees’ rotation combined with the youthful upside easily warrant a shot in the 22nd round. As the days get warmer, I expect García’s ADP to rise with the temperature with it. Just be cautious of the downside here when constructing your rotation as a demotion back to the minors is in the deck of cards if things don’t go right. — Matthew Davis

Mark Canha, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics

ADP 276, min 228, max 364

Boring wins in fantasy baseball, and there may be no player more boring than the hitting machine Canha. While teammates like Matt Chapman (recovering from offseason hip surgery), Matt Olson and Ramón Laureano may garner more attention, the dependable and consistent Canha could be the best (and cheapest) fantasy asset of the bunch.

Likely hitting out of the cleanup spot in 2021, Canha put up the same steady Eddie numbers in 2020 — five homers and four steals, paired with a 15.2% walk rate. And that’s no aberration or fluke — Canha owns a 9.5% walk rate for his career, and he logged a 13%-plus walk rate in 2019, a season that he also popped 26 home runs.

While O.Co isn’t a hitter-friendly park, Canha’s 44.4% fly-ball rate will keep him as a solid late-round outfield pick that’s definitely worthy of occupying a roster spot. — Matt Kupferle

Elieser Hernandez, SP, Miami Marlins

ADP 264, min 230, max 333

He may not get the pub that his fellow brethren receive in the Miami rotation, but Hernández should be able to make a full recovery from the lat injury that sidelined him at the end of the 2020 season. That should give him a chance to stake his claim to a rotation spot in 2021, and if he is healthy, watch out.

Over 25.2 innings last season, the righty’s 3.11 ERA certainly stands out, but what truly draws attention is his 27.4% K-BB rate. That leads to an overall skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 3.17 — showing that the ERA was no fluke. And his primary weapon for that tantalizing 13.2% swinging-strike rate is a plus slider; that wipe out offering has generated a 16.3% swinging-strike rate for Hernandez’s career. Paired to match his 68.9% first-pitch strike rate, one of the best marks in all of baseball, and the strike throwing righty is ready to climb up the ranks.

Keep an eye out to make sure he does end up on the path to health, but this is a bargain-basement value. — Matt Kupferle