MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 20 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Most Aggressive Coaches of 2023
Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Packers Passing Party
Now updated with Monday games! The Green Bay Packers had a huge victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, much larger than the 48-32 final score. DVOA downweights the Dallas scores in the fourth quarter because they came with such a huge gap between the teams. As a result, Green Bay finished the game with […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Eagles at Bucs: DVOA Preview
Our DVOA ratings have been down on the Philadelphia Eagles for much of the 2023 season, at least compared to their win-loss record. As the Eagles escaped the early season with some close wins over unimpressive opponents (25-20 over the Patriots, 38-31 over the Commanders, etc.), the DVOA ratings kept the Eagles around ninth or […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers at Bills: DVOA Preview
Edit: This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pm EST. That means lesser winds around 12mph and just a small chance of snow showers. It will still be very cold but not as cold as Kansas City on Saturday night. Get the shovels ready! Buffalo could be pelted with Lake Effect snow right at […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 19 of our DVOA-based picks. It’s Wild-Card Weekend! Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz: My 2023 All-Pro Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. Each year, after the All-Pro team is officially announced, I write an article listing who I voted for at each position and giving some reasoning where appropriate. I’m going to do the same thing this […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Packers at Cowboys: DVOA Preview
Everything old is new again. The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers will meet in the playoffs for the ninth time, which will tie for the most playoff matchups between two teams in the Super Bowl era. The setting feels familiar. Green Bay will bring a hot, young quarterback who replaced the long-time star at […]
FTN
NFL
DVOA
Rams at Lions: DVOA Preview
Lions fans celebrated Christmas a day early when safety Ifeatu Melifonwu intercepted a wobbly Nick Mullens pass to secure the Lions’ first division title since 1993 – back when they played in the now-defunct NFC Central. But a Vikings rematch two weeks later ended their victory tour rather abruptly. Dan Campbell had played his starters […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Dolphins at Chiefs: DVOA Preview
What we thought might be the AFC Conference Championship ended up just being a wild-card matchup. The Dolphins started 5-1 but have since gone 6-5. The Chiefs started 5-1 and …. have since gone 6-5. So we enter this exciting wild-card matchup wondering how exciting it will be. A 21-14 international Chiefs win between these […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Browns at Texans: DVOA Preview
This is not supposed to be happening right now. At this point last year, the Houston Texans were fighting for the top pick in the draft – a battle they lost. They were forced to settle for second-choice quarterback C.J. Stroud. A new head coach in his first time in the job, an offensive coordinator […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
49ers Stars Lead 2023 DYAR Stats
When it comes to offense in the National Football League, 2023 was the season of the San Francisco 49ers. In our annual countdown of the best and worst players of the year by FTN’s advanced DYAR and DVOA metrics, 49ers players top the lists at every position. That’s fitting since the 49ers had the ninth-best […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII Revised as of 1/29/24, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Seventh Annual Joe Thomas Draft
It’s time once again, boys and girls – time for the annual Joe Thomas Draft! My favorite time of the year, by far. We started the Joe Thomas Draft on our old website in memory of Thomas’ long, fruitless career; one of the best to ever play the game toiling away in the Factory of […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Final 2023 DVOA Ratings
The Baltimore Ravens finish the 2023 season on top of the FTN DVOA ratings, followed by the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams dropped a little in Week 18 as they sat many starters, but they still both rank among the top 10 teams ever ranked by DVOA. The Ravens were third before sitting starters and […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 18 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 Playoff Picture Breakdown by DVOA
With just one week to go in the 2023 season, 20 teams remain alive for the Super Bowl. That’s not quite historically unprecedented, but it’s close. In the DVOA era, it’s tied for the second-most teams still alive entering the final week of the season. The only year with more was 1982, where the player’s […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 17 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s All-Rookie Team 2023
I hope everyone enjoyed their pack of games this Christmas weekend. It was a great one if you happened to live in Baltimore or Las Vegas; perhaps a little less so in Kansas City or San Francisco. The NFL has made Christmas Day it’s latest outpost in its attempts to dominate the sports world every […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 16 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Let’s Visit the DVOA Splits!
Welcome back to our second installment of the Premium Splits DVOA deep dive! If you missed our first part, we covered the hyper-situational world of per-play splits. Passing into specific field zones and running through individual holes are about as niche as one can get. We then opened it up to single-game performances to widen the […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
Welcome back to part two of this year’s best possible Pro Bowl rosters! We covered the offense earlier this week; now, we have to dive into the muck that is the defensive side of the ball, as well as the mysterious land of special teams. There’s not a lack of quality choices here, mind you; […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Tommy DeVito and the 2023 New York Giants Sack Festival
Last season, we had two units challenging historical sack records. The 2022 Eagles came close to the best sack rate for any defense in modern NFL history. The 2022 Bears came close to the worst sack rate for any offense in NFL history. Both teams fell short. There’s no defense this year that can come […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
The Pro Bowl matters! OK, the Pro Bowl game doesn’t matter, which is why it no longer exists. The Pro Bowl Games last year were surprisingly entertaining, in a “put the game on in the background while doing other things” sort of way. A smorgasbord of skills competitions and some flag football games were more […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 15 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Shanahan Effect on the Middle of the Field and More Lessons from DVOA Splits
Football is a game of small sample sizes. While the NBA and NHL get to enjoy 82 games of action, and the real MLB diehards get double that, us NFL enthusiasts are stuck with just 17 games to make real, meaningful analysis. Even breaking down the game into its hyper-situational components can feel like panning […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Where the Dak Prescott MVP Case is Lacking
If the NFL MVP award is about narratives as much as it is about performance, then Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are writing one that measures up to the veteran quarterback’s productivity on the field. After handshake Week 1 and 2 blowouts of a pair of overmatched New York teams — the latter reeling from […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Purdy: Most Valuable Player Compared to Salary
“Most Valuable Player” is kind of a weird name for an award, isn’t it? There’s no reason the NFL needs to call its biggest award that. We could be talking about the most outstanding player in the league or the most important player or the most useful player or the most exceptional player. We could be handing […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Jets Lead Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers-Patriots and Lowest NFL Over-Under Totals
This is a general reminder to everyone: there is nothing stopping you from just … not watching tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Seriously. Get some holiday shopping done. Call a loved one. Hell, go watch a movie. Anything but watching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play some caricature of a “football game.” The […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Patriots vs. Panthers (Bears)
It’s the last race you want to win when the contest begins in September. But by the time December rolls around, you’re kind of rooting for it. The first overall pick. The first place prize for the last place team. So who is it going to be this year? Current Odds of Getting the First […]
Tyler Loechner