NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s All-Rookie Team 2023
I hope everyone enjoyed their pack of games this Christmas weekend. It was a great one if you happened to live in Baltimore or Las Vegas; perhaps a little less so in Kansas City or San Francisco. The NFL has made Christmas Day it’s latest outpost in its attempts to dominate the sports world every […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 16 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Let’s Visit the DVOA Splits!
Welcome back to our second installment of the Premium Splits DVOA deep dive! If you missed our first part, we covered the hyper-situational world of per-play splits. Passing into specific field zones and running through individual holes are about as niche as one can get. We then opened it up to single-game performances to widen the […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
Welcome back to part two of this year’s best possible Pro Bowl rosters! We covered the offense earlier this week; now, we have to dive into the muck that is the defensive side of the ball, as well as the mysterious land of special teams. There’s not a lack of quality choices here, mind you; […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Tommy DeVito and the 2023 New York Giants Sack Festival
Last season, we had two units challenging historical sack records. The 2022 Eagles came close to the best sack rate for any defense in modern NFL history. The 2022 Bears came close to the worst sack rate for any offense in NFL history. Both teams fell short. There’s no defense this year that can come […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2023 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
The Pro Bowl matters! OK, the Pro Bowl game doesn’t matter, which is why it no longer exists. The Pro Bowl Games last year were surprisingly entertaining, in a “put the game on in the background while doing other things” sort of way. A smorgasbord of skills competitions and some flag football games were more […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 15 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Shanahan Effect on the Middle of the Field and More Lessons from DVOA Splits
Football is a game of small sample sizes. While the NBA and NHL get to enjoy 82 games of action, and the real MLB diehards get double that, us NFL enthusiasts are stuck with just 17 games to make real, meaningful analysis. Even breaking down the game into its hyper-situational components can feel like panning […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Where the Dak Prescott MVP Case is Lacking
If the NFL MVP award is about narratives as much as it is about performance, then Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are writing one that measures up to the veteran quarterback’s productivity on the field. After handshake Week 1 and 2 blowouts of a pair of overmatched New York teams — the latter reeling from […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Purdy: Most Valuable Player Compared to Salary
“Most Valuable Player” is kind of a weird name for an award, isn’t it? There’s no reason the NFL needs to call its biggest award that. We could be talking about the most outstanding player in the league or the most important player or the most useful player or the most exceptional player. We could be handing […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Jets Lead Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers-Patriots and Lowest NFL Over-Under Totals
This is a general reminder to everyone: there is nothing stopping you from just … not watching tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Seriously. Get some holiday shopping done. Call a loved one. Hell, go watch a movie. Anything but watching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play some caricature of a “football game.” The […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Patriots vs. Panthers (Bears)
It’s the last race you want to win when the contest begins in September. But by the time December rolls around, you’re kind of rooting for it. The first overall pick. The first place prize for the last place team. So who is it going to be this year? Current Odds of Getting the First […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Jets vs. The Worst QB Situations Ever
To be a fly on the wall in the New York Jets’ quarterback room. They’re not content to just be the worst passing offense in football, with a -27.6% DVOA. Oh no. They’re not content to be pushing for the worst passing offense in franchise history, either, tied with the 1995 Boomer Esiason squad in […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 13 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Put Some Respect on the Jaguars’ Name … and Defense
The 2023 race for the AFC No. 1 seed might be up there for one of the most competitive in recent memory. The four teams leading their divisions right now – the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Miami Dolphins – all currently sit at either 9-3 or 8-3. Headed into […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA Through Week 12
You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Are Eagles the Next DVOA Underdog Super Bowl Champions?
Will the Eagles keep winning starts with how the Eagles keep winning – and the answer is … well, complicated. They have by no means dominated their opponents, culminating in a 15.6% DVOA for the season. This kind of DVOA gives them an outlook that falls well below the average expectation level for us Philadelphia […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the 2023 Playoff Race
One benefit about the NFL’s bizarre 18-week, 17-game schedule is that it breaks the season nicely into three thirds. That’s aesthetically pleasing to me; every season is its own story, and a three-act structure is a fun way to view the year from 20,000 feet, as it were. You have all your important characters and […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 12 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Who is the 2023 Coach of the Year?
At the two-thirds mark of the NFL season, some end-of-year awards are much harder to decide than others. One of the hardest to currently predict: Coach of the Year. It’s one of the few awards that cannot truly be determined until the last weeks of the season, but there are a whole heap of candidates […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Turkeys for 2023
How do you prepare your turkey? I’m a stickler for brining; the number one problem with a terrible turkey is having it dry out and brining it helps it absorb extra moisture and make a juicer, more flavorful bird. But there are dozens of ways to go about it. I’ve enjoyed deep-fried birds, spatchcocked birds, […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Whatever Happened to the Class of 2021?
The 2021 draft’s quarterback class was supposed to be special. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round, including the top three picks. In total, a record eight quarterbacks were selected in the first two days. The draft had everything: highly-revered generational talents, tried-and-true pocket passers, big-upside projects, backyard ballers, dual-threat scramblers. You name it, […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 11 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
C.J. Stroud and the DYAR Leaders
Things change fast in the NFL. Last week, as we broke down the midseason award leaders, we noted that, all else being equal, the default choice for MVP should be the player leading the league in passing DYAR. And that was one Patrick Joshua Allen. Yeah, so, about that… You might argue that take aged […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 10 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How the Chiefs Built a Top Defense
This has been an unusual season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, the Andy Reid-coached offense is still good. Patrick Mahomes is performing toward the top of the league. Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in receiving DYAR. That’s all typical, but it hasn’t been the story dominating Kansas City’s season. For the first time […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 NFL Midseason Awards Leaders
It’s Week 10 in the NFL. Do you know where your MVP is? Handing out midseason awards isn’t about actual hardware or anything – no one celebrates being MVP in October. But it’s a good framework to reflect on what we’ve seen over the first 136 games of the season and try to figure out […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 9 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defenses and Interception-Worthy Throws
Welcome back to our exploration of interception-worthy throws, a stat we collect with FTN Data charting. Last week, we looked at this stat in its proper context: analyzing quarterbacks. This is a quarterback passing stat used to count throws to well-defended receivers. I argued that this was a good way to cut out the noise and […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
The 10 Best NFL International Games
Set your alarm clocks and break out the coffee, because the best game in the NFL this week comes to you from Frankfurt. It was never the league’s explicit plan to give Germany the best game of the week, and one of the best games of the year, when they scheduled the Kansas City Chiefs […]
Bryan Knowles