Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
“Teams that play the Lions do not typically perform well the next week. Seriously, go back and look.” Ok, Chris Long, I will! Chris Long, on his Green Light Pod, started talking about the Dan Campbell Effect way back on September 25th (and potentially even sooner than that). Ever since, the hypothesis has remained true – teams underperform the week after they play the Lions. This season alone, the Rams lost by 31 to the Cardinals, the Bucs lost by 19 to the Broncos, the Cardinals lost by 28 to the Commanders, the Seahawks lost by nine to the Giants, and the Vikings lost by 10 to the Rams. The Rams and Cardinals have been on both sides of the effect.
So the question is, is this real? Or just a small sample coincidence?
The theory is that the Lions are just so physical that they wear out a team and the team is consequently not ready to go back to battle seven days later. Well the Lions have had the same physical identity since they turned around their 2022 season, so I went all the way back to the turning point of that season to check just how real this effect is. Hint: it’s real.
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