Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Last year, with the help of FTN Data charting, I introduced a new metric that measured cornerback coverage using DVOA. The cornerback coverage metric looks at every snap with a cornerback in coverage, and then how often he either allows a successful reception, earns a DPI penalty, or gets an interception. The numbers are adjusted for opponent and for where the receiver in question was lined up before the play. Receivers lined up in the slot tend to have more success than those lined up wide, but the receivers lined up wide are often the more talented and overall successful players.
It takes some time to put these numbers together every couple of weeks, but until we get them automated so that they can appear on StatsHub, I want to present the numbers to our subscribers every few weeks during the season. Below, you’ll find a table with every cornerback with at least 100 coverage snaps through Week 6. For non-subscribers, I’ve got the top dozen cornerbacks of the year so far.
One interesting note here is which cornerbacks get the biggest adjustments for the receivers (and lineup positions) they have covered this season. By far the largest adjustment goes to Kyler Gordon of the Bears, who goes from -82% without those adjustments to -10% with the adjustments. (Like with all defensive DVOA, cornerback coverage DVOA is better the lower it goes.) Other cornerbacks with a major penalty in the adjustments include Jourdan Lewis of the Cowboys, Beanie Bishop of the Steelers, Christian Benford of the Bills, and Kristian Fulton of the Chargers. (Lewis, Benford, and Fulton still come out very good despite the adjustments.)
Cornerbacks with big adjustments that give them better coverage DVOA include Jaycee Horn of the Panthers, Tre Brown of the Seahawks, and Stephon Gilmore of the Vikings. Horn and Brown still come out as below average, but much closer to average. Gilmore comes out fantastic so far this season.
We can do these coverage stats for safeties and linebackers as well, but they’re less trustworthy and I definitely would want a larger sample size before running those numbers. As for cornerbacks, remember that cornerback stats are very, very inconsistent. This is just six weeks. Don’t make huge judgments on player value based on these numbers!
| Rk | Player | Team | Routes | DVOA |
| 1 | Garrett Williams | ARI | 105 | -56.4% |
| 2 | Marshon Lattimore | NO | 176 | -53.3% |
| 3 | Riq Woolen | SEA | 151 | -51.7% |
| 4 | Samuel Womack | IND | 100 | -51.4% |
| 5 | Jaylon Johnson | CHI | 197 | -51.0% |
| 6 | Jaylen Watson | KC | 174 | -48.5% |
| 7 | Pat Surtain II | DEN | 188 | -43.6% |
| 8 | Donte Jackson | PIT | 185 | -43.0% |
| 9 | Stephon Gilmore | MIN | 201 | -41.2% |
| 10 | Jaire Alexander | GB | 145 | -36.5% |
| 11 | Trevon Diggs | DAL | 178 | -34.2% |
| 12 | Mike Hilton | CIN | 113 | -33.9% |
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