Week 1 Quick Reads: Baker Mayfield’s Career Day

Welcome to Quick Reads! For readers who are new to my work and my stats, this is a weekly column where I will talk about the best and worst performances of the week according to my DYAR stats. That’s Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, the “total” stat compared to DVOA as a “rate” stat. If this all sounds new to you, you can check out my DVOA explainer article.

We give the numbers for all the quarterbacks who played a decent number of snaps. Then we give the top 5 running backs (both total and rushing only) and the bottom running back (same), followed by the top 5 wide receivers and tight ends and then the bottom wide receiver or tight end. Our numbers don’t separate a player from his teammates, so of course, it’s possible that a poor DYAR performance could be related to the players around you. Maybe your receivers dropped a lot of passes or perhaps your quarterback targeted you very badly on a lot of inaccurate passes. These numbers represent a player’s value but are not completely divorced from context.

Another important note about my stats: I do not include opponent adjustments until after Week 4 of the season. Opponent adjustments are an important part of Quick Reads, especially when we get to the end of the season, but early on we don’t have those adjustments. We still don’t know how good or bad these defenses are going to be for the entire year.

For longtime Quick Reads readers… please bear with me while we play around with these tables and comments given the new style and format of our website.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield had the best game of his career by DYAR, and it will likely remain the top game of his career even after we apply this year’s opponent adjustments. Mayfield’s previous career high was 185 DYAR, which he has accomplished twice: In the wild-card round of the 2020 playoffs against Pittsburgh (21-for-34, 263 yards, 3 TD) and last season in Week 15 against Green Bay (22-for-28, 381 yards, 4 TD but 5 sacks). Mayfield had a huge game even though his average depth of target was just 5.5 yards, near the bottom of the league this week… Josh Allen had -14 passing DYAR on first down, thanks in part to a sack and fumble, but had 99 passing DYAR on second down and 56 passing DYAR on third down… Derek Carr threw only five passes on third down and four of those were to Rashid Shaheed. That included a 59-yard touchdown and a 31-yard DPI… Tua Tagovailoa had 33 passing DYAR in the first half against Jacksonville but 80 passing DYAR in the second half… Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes led the league with 10.6 and 9.4 average YAC on their completed pass, respectively… Matthew Stafford had -52 passing DYAR in the first half against Detroit but 130 passing DYAR in the second half.

Jalen Hurts had one of the worst single-game rushing DYAR totals ever measured. It starts with two aborted snaps, but he averaged just 3.0 yards per carry otherwise, which is very low for a quarterback. Hurts had three carries on first-and-10 for 0 total yards (-3, 2, and 1). He had two carries for no gain, including a third-and-1. He also had a 5-yard carry on third-and-8 and a 6-yard carry on third-and-7… Jayden Daniels had 32 DYAR on scrambles but -23 DYAR on designed runs and -19 DYAR on aborted plays for a total rushing DYAR that was negative… Anthony Richardson led the NFL with an average depth of target of 16.4 yards. Nobody else was above 12.5 yards… Jordan Love completed 4 of 9 passes on third down, but that included a 70-yard touchdown to Jayden Reed plus a 13-yard DPI, so he had 77 passing DYAR on third down… Kyler Murray had 97 passing DYAR in the first half against the Bills but -73 passing DYAR in the second half… C.J. Stroud had 84 DYAR passing to the middle of the field, second this week behind 85 for Derek Carr.

In a week filled with dinking and dunking, it was Gardner Minshew who had the lowest average depth of target at 4.5 yards per pass… Will Levis earned 23 passing DYAR in the first half of the game against Chicago, but -16 passing DYAR in the third quarter and -105 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter which included two interceptions and a sack-fumble… Daniel Jones had -80 passing DYAR in the red zone, completing two passes out of seven for 0 and 3 yards, plus an interception and a 0-yard sack.

Top 5 Running Backs

Joe Mixon averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 13 carries that came behind his own 40-yard line… Saquon Barkley never had a carry on third down… David Montgomery converted all three of his carries that came on third or fourth down… Bijan Robinson had three first downs on five catches, including on third-and-4.

Lowest Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Jaleel McLaughlin was basically hung out to dry by Bo Nix, as the target of passes worth -1, -1, -5, -6, and -8 air yards. McLaighlin caught all five but lost yardage on two of them and lost the ball on another one.

Lowest Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Zamir White had five carries on second, third, or fourth down and gained a total of 2 yards.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR

Jayden Reed gets 55 receiving DYAR plus 25 rushing DYAR for his 33-yard touchdown on a jet sweep… Alec Pierce was the designated deep threat for Indianapolis with catches of 60 and 57 yards… Chris Godwin caught five passes on third down, with all five resulting in a new set of downs.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR

Courtland Sutton was targeted five times on third down, resulting on just one catch (17 yards and a conversion) plus an interception (which Sutton himself is not penalized for).