Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 Quick Reads: C.J. Stroud’s Record-Setting Afternoon
C.J. Stroud is having an incredible rookie season, but it hit its peak in yesterday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud had five touchdown passes and set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards, also leading a last-minute comeback for a 39-37 win. As you might suspect, Stroud also set records by our […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 9 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defenses and Interception-Worthy Throws
Welcome back to our exploration of interception-worthy throws, a stat we collect with FTN Data charting. Last week, we looked at this stat in its proper context: analyzing quarterbacks. This is a quarterback passing stat used to count throws to well-defended receivers. I argued that this was a good way to cut out the noise and […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
The 10 Best NFL International Games
Set your alarm clocks and break out the coffee, because the best game in the NFL this week comes to you from Frankfurt. It was never the league’s explicit plan to give Germany the best game of the week, and one of the best games of the year, when they scheduled the Kansas City Chiefs […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Hottest Teams of Weeks 5-8
NFL teams talk often about peaking heading into the playoffs, but the truth is that they often show their true colors far earlier in the season. Now eight weeks in, we can compare teams’ last four weeks to their first four to get a great sense of who is surging into contention. There are five […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 DVOA: Ravens Extend First-Place Lead
The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA after this week’s 31-24 victory over the Cardinals. With San Francisco and Kansas City losing this week, the Ravens have now opened a huge lead over the rest of the league, more than 10 percentage points. San Francisco remains second, with Kansas City dropping one spot into […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 Quick Reads: Will Levis and Great QB Debuts
Will Levis had an impressive debut at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans this week, with four touchdown passes. However, this game was not one of the best quarterback debuts in DVOA history because Levis played a bad pass defense (Atlanta) and had a low success rate of 29%. Most of his success came from the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 8 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Lessons from Interception-Worthy Throws
Our understanding of football is constantly evolving. With growth in analytics spaces, the increasing ubiquity of data literacy, and the continued work of game-charting teams, data-literate NFL fans are finding new ways to process and interpret the game we love. While quarterbacks are by far the most visible position in football, our tools for evaluating […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
All Those Sam Howell Sacks
We need to talk about Sam Howell. But before we do, we need to talk about David Carr. Since 2002, the record for most times sacked in a season has belonged to Carr and the Houston Texans. Behind a legendarily bad expansion line, with a top-pick pedigree and no one worth starting behind him, Carr […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Climb to No. 1 after Week of Upsets
We thought Week 6 was Upset Week in the NFL, but Week 7 really was Upset Week. Last week’s top four teams in DVOA all lost this weekend: San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami. Baltimore’s victory over Detroit was so gigantic that the Ravens leaped up 15 percentage points of DVOA and now hold the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 Quick Reads: Big Weeks for Jackson and Mahomes
Now updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10am EDT. Lamar Jackson had a dominant performance on Sunday in a 38-6 victory over the Detroit Lions. Many analysts felt it was the best passing performance of his career. But by DYAR, it wasn’t even the best performance of the week. That belonged to Patrick […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 7 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The End of the Patriots Dynasty
The New England Patriots spent the 2023 offseason seemingly wiping their hands clean of the nightmare that was 2022. For how bad the season may have felt, an 8-9 record with a No. 15 total DVOA and a Week 18 playoff elimination seemed easy to come back from. The Patriots chalked their offensive woes up […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Why Does Something Feel Off in Kansas City?
The world champion Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1. If the season ended today, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So why does it feel like they are … kinda meh this year? Most of the high-level data points don’t support that feeling. As we said above, they are sitting pretty in […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Players Who Should Be Moved at the Trade Deadline
The NFL trade deadline falls on Halloween this year, which is fitting because the dead walk amongst us. Don’t be confused if they’re still technically upright, shuffling their way listlessly through the season. Don’t be alarmed if they cause a contender or two to trip over their lifeless corpses. Don’t even be shocked if you […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 DVOA: Lions Move to No. 2
A week of upsets and near-upsets are probably shaking up power rankings all over the Internet. Over here with DVOA ratings, we don’t have as much of a shakeup. First of all, Week 6 represented just one week out of six, and DVOA stays away from recency bias. Second, the San Francisco 49ers were so […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 Quick Reads: A History of Mac Joneses
Mac Jones of the New England Patriots has a very strange career path. Jones was good as a rookie, very productive compared to other rookie quarterbacks. He ended the year with 6.1% passing DVOA, 13th that year among qualifying quarterbacks. By DYAR, Jones had the 10th-best passing season for any rookie in our database, back […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 6 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Detroit Lions Culture Transformation Turns into On-Field Performance
“Culture” is a word that gets thrown around pretty flippantly in NFL circles. Not the idea of “culture,” of course not. Every team strives to have a cohesive locker room full of players sharing the same mindset, abiding by the same code. While most coaches emphasize it to the media and toss it around like […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Rashee Rice an Early Chiefs Surprise in Route DVOA
You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Biggest Revenge Games in DVOA History
For most, revenge games are about the motivation rather than the execution. Sean Payton told USA Today reporter Jarrett Bell that Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” in 2022, and Hackett naturally circled the Week 5 Jets-Broncos matchup on his calendar. Hackett’s players mobbed and […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
When Will the 49ers Get Their First Loss?
The San Francisco 49ers will lose a game. Eventually. Probably. It doesn’t feel like that at the moment, as the 5-0 49ers were crowned king of all power rankings on Sunday night. What was pegged as a battle of two of the top Super Bowl contenders in the league quickly became a laugher, the latest […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 DVOA: 49ers Join the Hunt for Historical Greatness
Like probably every power rating around the Internet, both statistical and subjective, DVOA has the San Francisco 49ers on top after their huge 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The surprise around here instead is the relatively small gap between the unbeaten 49ers and the 3-2 Buffalo Bills. Let’s heap some praise […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 Quick Reads: Stroud and Proud
Take a look at the passing DYAR stats for the first five games of the 2023 season and you’ll see some unexpected names at the top of the list. For example, Patrick Mahomes is only fourth, in part due to opponent adjustments for an easier schedule. Justin Herbert is only eighth. Jalen Hurts is 13th. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 5 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Seahawks: Room for Improvement Despite Hot Start
When it comes to the 2023 Seattle Seahawks, there really shouldn’t be any surprises. They packed enough of those into the 2022 season. Last year’s Seahawks were pretty much a complete unknown. They had just traded their franchise quarterback away, leaving themselves with two backups to duke it out as a succession plan. Seattle started […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
This Year’s Vikings Are Last Year’s Vikings
Through just four weeks of the 2023 season, the Vikings are only one loss shy of their 2022 total. Yet, this version of the Vikings is nearly identical to last season’s team in every way. In 2023, the Vikings have three losses by seven points or less. In 2022, they played nine such games and won […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
It’s Time for Bengals to Rest Joe Burrow
CalfWatch 2023 continues, as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals watch the season slowly drain away. Sunday’s 27-3 loss to a Titans team that can best be described as “uninspiring” isn’t quite the nadir of Cincinnati’s season – their -56.8% DVOA in Week 4 was ever-so-slightly higher than their -59.1% mark in Week 1 – […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 DVOA: Buffalo Bills Greatest 3-1 Team Ever
Daniel Kelley wrote yesterday about the NFL storylines we would be talking about if Weeks 1-2 had never happened. Well, what if just Week 1 had never happened? If the Buffalo Bills had not lost to the Zach Wilson-led Jets on Monday Night Football, would we be talking about them the way we talked about […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 Quick Reads: Big Offense in Buffalo
Updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10:30 am EDT. Week 4 is the week I start introducing opponent adjustments to my numbers (at 40% strength) so this is a good time to look at which players have taken advantage of an easy schedule so far… or have been hurt by a tough schedule […]
Aaron Schatz