Ten Week 1 Narratives That Opponent Adjustments Would Explain

In the second halves of seasons, opponent adjustments earn DVOA a bunch of its predictive power.  But at the start of seasons, metric master Aaron Schatz does not make opponent adjustments.  As he explains, there isn’t enough data from the current season to do opponent adjustments in the early weeks, and the data from the previous season is complicated by the fact that there’s a lot of change from year to year in the quality of teams, particularly on defense.

That is a demonstrably winning approach on the whole.  But that doesn’t mean that every opponent expectation will prove incorrect.  Many will be prescient.  And I suspect more will be prescient in 2024 than they have in most recent seasons.  Week 1 is famous for its overreactions.  But this year’s takes struck me as having a common denominator in their overlooking of the quality of opponents.  As such, I asked Aaron to run the DVOA numbers with their full opponent adjustments from the 2023 season.  And comparing those to the real, unadjusted DVOA rates, I identified 10 Week 1 narratives that opponent adjustments might eventually debunk.

1. The Saints and Bucs are the class of the NFC South

The Falcons became the definitive NFC South favorites after they filled some defensive holes with Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons in late summer.  But the public perception of the division flipped in Week 1 when the Saints and Bucs scored 47 and 37 points against the Panthers and Commanders and the Falcons managed a meager 10 against the Steelers.  On one hand, that was a victory for DVOA.  Aaron was one of the few major analysts that predicted the Saints would win the division in the preseason.  But on the other, those results were less surprising through the prism of opponent adjustments.

Last year, the Panthers and Commanders had the two worst defensive DVOA rates.  And they both prioritized offense over defense in the offseason, the former trading their star edge rusher Brian Burns and letting their standout linebacker Frankie Luvu walk to reallocate resources to help Bryce Young and the latter drafting quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick.  In contrast, the Steelers had the sixth best defensive DVOA last year and held a handful of stellar quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love to point totals in the teens, as well.  Adjusted for opponents, all three of those NFC South teams enjoyed above average Week 1 efficiencies.  And all three retain a strong chance to win the division this year.

2. The Sam Darnold-aissance is upon us

Darnold’s final box score of 208 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception is unremarkable.  But the Vikings jumped on the Giants with three offensive touchdowns in the first 33 minutes.  And Darnold looked much better leading those drives than his Vikings predecessor Kirk Cousins did with his new Falcons team.

But Minnesota fans should wait another week to buy those $200 Darnold jerseys.  The former No. 3 pick has tremendous arm talent and has always produced occasional highlight throws because of it.  His issue has been his more frequent poor decisions, and he didn’t seem to be tested in that respect by a Giants team that ranked 30th in total DVOA in 2023.

3.  Jim Harbaugh fixed the Chargers

Some may scoff at Harbaugh’s old-school desire to run and stop the run and leave his gifted quarterback Justin Herbert in the garage, but he rode his philosophy to a comfortable Week 1 win.  J.K. Dobbins exploded for 135 rushing yards with a pair of breakaway carries.  And the Chargers defense forced a pair of fumbles and intercepted a pass.  Did Harbaugh exorcise the ghost of his analytically-minded predecessor Brandon Staley in his first week?  Maybe.  But the Chargers also enjoyed their Week 1 success against a Raiders team that ranked 27th in offensive DVOA and had a markedly worse run than pass defense at 18th versus 8th in DVOA in 2023.  Harbaugh couldn’t have faced a better opponent for his preferences.  As is fitting for a recent college coach, Harbaugh will see another cupcake in the Panthers in Week 2.  But then his real test will begin with the Steelers and Chiefs before a Week 5 bye.

4. Aaron Rodgers is not enough to save the Jets

Rodgers seemed further along in his recovery from his Achilles tear than his fellow elder quarterback statesman Kirk Cousins.  He threw a pair of vintage Rodgers darts to Allen Lazard on the team’s second touchdown drive.  But otherwise, the Jets showed little skill talent depth behind Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.  And last year’s No. 3 defense allowed the 49ers to score on eight of their nine possessions.  In Week 1, Rodgers wasn’t enough to move the Jets needle.

The Jets may have a real Haason Reddick problem.  But it shouldn’t be a major indictment that their defense allowed 32 points to last year’s outlier No. 1 offense.  In fact, with opponent adjustments, the Jets jumped from 25th to 13th in total DVOA in Week 1, nearly double the efficiency jump of the third biggest such improver.  The team will likely right the ship against the Titans, Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings over the next four weeks and with three of those next four games at home in New York.  And if Rodgers continues to play like he did in Week 1, the Jets should push for their first playoff appearance since 2010.

5. These are the same old Jaguars

Ironically for a team that erased a 27-point deficit to beat the Chargers in the 2022 playoffs, the Jaguars have developed a reputation as a team of narrow misses and unmet potential.  And they did little to flip that narrative with a blown 17-7 lead near the end of the third quarter in Week 1.  But I wouldn’t count Jacksonville out of the AFC South race just yet.  Fumbles like Travis Etienne’s in the red zone happen to every team.  Some will bounce in the Jaguars’ favor.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars deserve credit for building that lead against last year’s No. 6 team and No. 2 offense by DVOA.  Trevor Lawrence may be the team’s most important player.  But the Jaguars defense was an unheralded top 10 unit in 2023.  And with last year’s opponent adjustments, the defense and the team in general ranked top 10 in Week 1 efficiency despite their loss.

6. Josh Allen can make any receiver room an elite passing offense

Allen may not have uncovered a star receiver in Week 1 like his former No. 1 Stefon Diggs.  But the veteran quarterback distributed the ball with targets for 10 different players, and the Bills offense did not miss a beat with a bronze-medal 34 points scored on the week.  And the ascending junior Khalil Shakir and newly drafted Keon Coleman made plays with their modest opportunities, the former with an acrobatic stretch for a touchdown and the latter with a contested catch down the right sideline.

Could the Bills be better offensively without a star but with a deeper stable of role players?  Maybe.  But consider that the team had its outburst against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in pass defense and 32nd in overall defense in 2023.  Allen will face sterner defensive tests with his AFC East rivals and teams such as the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions in what DVOA projects as the most difficult schedule in football.

7. Jacoby Brissett can help the Patriots compete for the playoffs

The Bengals were an appropriate favorite over a Patriots team that has at least one toe dipped in rebuilding waters.  But that favoritism stemmed more from Joe Burrow and the potentially explosive Bengals offense than it did from the other side of the ball.  Brissett managed the game capably without a turnover or a big negative play.  But his 121 passing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt hardly lit the world on fire, especially with the added context that the Bengals had a bottom third defensive DVOA in 2023.  Brissett will have to prove himself against better defenses like the Jets and 49ers in the next few weeks.  And if he fares poorly, expect rookie Drake Maye to take his starting job in the second half of the season.

8. It’s over for Deshaun Watson

Watson’s latest sexual assault allegation may expedite his exit from the NFL, and I doubt many would be sorry to see him go. But with an eye on the field, I’m skeptical that Watson’s Week 1 letdown will lead to his imminent benching for backup Jameis Winston. Watson suffered his 53% completion rate, 3.8 yards per attempt, and two interceptions against a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth in DVOA in 2023. Those opponent adjustments did not make the Browns efficient in Week 1. But they pulled them out of the offensive basement. And I expect they will move the ball just fine with Watson against their lesser defensive opponents.

9. The Falcons may have to bench Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris may have said more with his team’s lack of play-action pass attempts in Week 1 than he literally said when he told reporters that Cousins was fully healthy after the game.  But if Morris is truthful, then it shouldn’t be too alarming that his new quarterback underperformed with 155 passing yards and two touchdowns on Sunday.  His opposing Steelers ranked sixth in pass defense and in overall defensive DVOA in 2023.  And the Falcons have few remaining landmines in what DVOA believes is the easiest schedule in football this season.

10. Lamar Jackson can’t beat the other great teams

Jackson has a ridiculous 58-20 record as a starter in the regular season.  But those wins mean less to his critics than his four losses in six playoff chances.  And those critics collected some extra ammunition as the Ravens fell 27-20 to the Chiefs on opening night.  It just may not be as compelling as they think it is.  Despite the loss, Jackson excelled with 6.7 yards per pass and 7.6 yards per run.  He did not throw an interception.  And he frequently carried his team’s offense with scrambles after pressure overwhelmed the Ravens’ undermanned offensive line.  The Chiefs are obviously best known by their offensive stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.  But their defense ranked fifth against the pass in 2023.  And with consideration of that challenge, Jackson had an exceptional debut that was a toe and a two-point conversion away from a flipping of his public narrative.