NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The New Orleans Saints begin the 2024 season on top of our DVOA ratings after a dominating victory over the Carolina Panthers. But how much can we learn from just a Week 1 win over a team that we all projected would be very bad this year?
First, let’s acknowledge that this wasn’t just a win for the Saints. This was a colossal win. The Saints outgained the Panthers 379 yards to 193 yards and won the turnover margin by +2. Their win would have been even bigger if they had been able to sustain drives into the red zone, instead kicking four field goals including two over 50 yards. The Panthers’ only touchdown came near the end of the third quarter when they were already losing 37-3.
We don’t include opponent adjustments yet in DVOA until after Week 4, but if we look at the unadjusted VOA numbers, this was the biggest victory Week 1 victory of the entire 21st century. Only six other teams in DVOA history have put up an (unadjusted) rating over 100% in Week 1. Here’s where the Saints stand among the top teams after Week 1 since 1979:
| Best Total DVOA after Week 1, 1979-2024 | |||
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA |
| 1999 | PIT | 1-0 | 134.5% |
| 1989 | CLE1 | 1-0 | 130.9% |
| 1991 | WAS | 1-0 | 124.2% |
| 1998 | SEA | 1-0 | 112.0% |
| 1997 | NYJ | 1-0 | 109.6% |
| 1997 | DAL | 1-0 | 100.9% |
| 2024 | NO | 1-0 | 100.8% |
| 2008 | PHI | 1-0 | 98.5% |
| 1985 | PIT | 1-0 | 98.4% |
| 2003 | SF | 1-0 | 95.0% |
| 2005 | PIT | 1-0 | 94.2% |
| 2018 | NYJ | 1-0 | 92.7% |
The problem here is that this is just the Panthers, and it is just one game. What do we learn from it?
Well, the first question is how much to adjust for the Panthers. I ran this week’s DVOA numbers using last year’s opponent adjustments for an article Scott Spratt is writing later this week. Using last year’s Carolina adjustments drops the Saints significantly, from 100.8% to 68.5%. That would still rank them No. 2 after Week 1, however, behind only the Dallas Cowboys who get a big bump up because last year’s Cleveland defense was so good.
The next question is what we learn from a dominant Week 1 victory over a bad team. To answer that question, I went and found the best Week 1 victories by VOA (unadjusted) against teams that would eventually finish the year 23rd or lower. That’s the worst six teams in the early days of DVOA and the worst 10 teams in the past two decades. Certainly, we all feel that the Panthers are not going to finish any higher than 23rd this year, although you never know.
There have previously been 25 games where a team put up at least 70% VOA in Week 1 against a team that would finish the year 23rd or lower. Seventeen of these teams finished with winning records, four of them finished .500, and four of them finished with losing records. However, the losing records include the team with the biggest Week 1 victory, the 1999 Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat the expansion Cleveland Browns 43-0. Here’s a look at the biggest victories over bad teams in Week 1:
| Year | Team | Score | vs. | Final Rank |
VOA | OFF | DEF | ST | Final W-L |
| 1999 | PIT | 43-0 | CLE | 31 | 136.4% | 34.4% | -96.4% | 5.6% | 6-10 |
| 1998 | SEA | 38-0 | PHI | 30 | 115.8% | 55.7% | -54.7% | 5.5% | 8-8 |
| 2024 | NO | 47-10 | CAR | — | 100.8% | 27.7% | -55.6% | 17.5% | — |
| 2008 | PHI | 38-3 | STL | 31 | 99.4% | 44.1% | -42.3% | 13.0% | 9-6-1 |
| 2005 | PIT | 34-7 | TEN | 26 | 95.5% | 73.5% | -25.5% | -3.5% | 11-5 |
| 2018 | NYJ | 48-17 | DET | 23 | 92.7% | 3.2% | -57.1% | 32.4% | 4-12 |
| 1999 | JAX | 41-3 | SF | 29 | 92.0% | 6.0% | -60.9% | 25.1% | 14-2 |
| 1997 | NE | 41-7 | SD | 29 | 91.9% | 48.3% | -34.8% | 8.8% | 10-6 |
| 2019 | BAL | 59-10 | MIA | 32 | 91.1% | 52.0% | -31.6% | 7.5% | 14-2 |
| 2007 | NE | 38-14 | NYJ | 24 | 91.1% | 64.2% | -7.1% | 19.8% | 16-0 |
| 1984 | SD | 42-13 | MIN | 28 | 90.7% | 43.8% | -52.2% | -5.4% | 7-9 |
| 2000 | PHI | 41-14 | DAL | 24 | 89.9% | 17.0% | -71.8% | 1.1% | 11-5 |
Mostly we’re talking here about teams that had winning records or at least beat the Saints’ preseason total in the markets, which was 7.5. The 2018 Jets are a big exception, although their victory was heavily powered by a somewhat unsustainable high special teams performance.
Another way we can look at this is to look at just teams that were No. 1 after Week 1, no matter how big their opening wins. Out of the 45 teams that previously ranked No. 1 in DVOA after Week 1, 32 of them ended the season with winning records. Another four were .500 and then nine ended the season with losing records.
I’m not arguing that the big Week 1 win means that the Saints will dominate all season. I’m just arguing the same thing I was arguing all preseason: the New Orleans Saints are an average or maybe slightly above-average team, not a bad team. I think the Week 1 victory helped demonstrate this, even against the Panthers.
The Vikings, Cowboys, and Seahawks also come out very high in DVOA after Week 1. There are some surprising results, such as Philadelphia coming out below Green Bay and Jacksonville slightly ahead of Miami. You’ll find all the numbers below.
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through one week of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Please note that there are no opponent adjustments in DVOA until after Week 4.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 93% preseason forecast and 7% actual performance. Note that DAVE ratings for Green Bay are still based on Jordan Love as quarterback but we’ve adjusted for Love’s absence in our playoff odds report.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 100.8% | 9.3% | 9 | 1-0 | 27.7% | 5 | -55.6% | 2 | 17.5% | 3 |
| 2 | MIN | 72.8% | 2.2% | 14 | 1-0 | 21.1% | 9 | -50.2% | 4 | 1.5% | 14 |
| 3 | DAL | 72.4% | 14.4% | 4 | 1-0 | -5.9% | 22 | -53.6% | 3 | 24.8% | 1 |
| 4 | SEA | 71.3% | 8.1% | 10 | 1-0 | 22.7% | 7 | -56.2% | 1 | -7.6% | 27 |
| 5 | SF | 48.1% | 22.5% | 1 | 1-0 | 24.8% | 6 | -13.3% | 8 | 9.9% | 6 |
| 6 | TB | 33.8% | 1.3% | 16 | 1-0 | 30.5% | 4 | 1.2% | 14 | 4.5% | 10 |
| 7 | LAC | 28.4% | -10.6% | 27 | 1-0 | -3.3% | 21 | -32.9% | 5 | -1.2% | 22 |
| 8 | NE | 24.0% | -7.2% | 22 | 1-0 | 8.9% | 15 | -8.5% | 11 | 6.5% | 8 |
| 9 | HOU | 21.0% | 14.0% | 5 | 1-0 | 22.2% | 8 | -1.7% | 13 | -2.9% | 24 |
| 10 | BUF | 19.3% | 12.4% | 6 | 1-0 | 33.0% | 2 | 4.0% | 16 | -9.7% | 28 |
| 11 | KC | 18.5% | 15.5% | 3 | 1-0 | 33.4% | 1 | 14.3% | 21 | -0.6% | 18 |
| 12 | DET | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7 | 1-0 | 9.2% | 13 | 2.7% | 15 | 4.2% | 11 |
| 13 | PIT | 3.1% | -6.6% | 21 | 1-0 | -17.4% | 25 | -9.8% | 10 | 10.7% | 5 |
| 14 | JAX | 1.4% | 1.6% | 15 | 0-1 | 13.3% | 12 | 12.2% | 20 | 0.3% | 17 |
| 15 | IND | 0.9% | -9.8% | 25 | 0-1 | 20.4% | 10 | 25.8% | 28 | 6.3% | 9 |
| 16 | MIA | -0.2% | 10.1% | 8 | 1-0 | 9.0% | 14 | 18.1% | 23 | 9.0% | 7 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
| 17 | GB | -1.0% | 5.8% | 12 | 0-1 | 20.4% | 11 | 16.4% | 22 | -5.0% | 25 |
| 18 | CHI | -2.8% | -10.0% | 26 | 1-0 | -36.3% | 28 | -18.6% | 7 | 14.9% | 4 |
| 19 | ATL | -3.2% | -4.9% | 20 | 0-1 | -14.6% | 24 | -12.0% | 9 | -0.6% | 19 |
| 20 | CIN | -7.6% | 6.2% | 11 | 0-1 | 0.8% | 19 | 7.5% | 17 | -0.9% | 20 |
| 21 | PHI | -9.3% | -1.0% | 19 | 1-0 | 6.8% | 17 | 19.2% | 24 | 3.1% | 12 |
| 22 | BAL | -11.3% | 15.7% | 2 | 0-1 | 32.8% | 3 | 37.3% | 30 | -6.8% | 26 |
| 23 | LAR | -11.7% | 3.4% | 13 | 0-1 | 2.0% | 18 | 11.7% | 19 | -2.1% | 23 |
| 24 | TEN | -25.2% | -7.5% | 23 | 0-1 | -25.2% | 27 | -31.9% | 6 | -31.9% | 32 |
| 25 | NYJ | -31.5% | 0.5% | 17 | 0-1 | -10.2% | 23 | 22.2% | 27 | 0.9% | 16 |
| 26 | LV | -33.6% | -9.1% | 24 | 0-1 | -22.6% | 26 | 9.7% | 18 | -1.2% | 21 |
| 27 | ARI | -36.1% | -11.9% | 28 | 0-1 | 8.5% | 16 | 45.9% | 32 | 1.3% | 15 |
| 28 | DEN | -56.9% | -16.4% | 29 | 0-1 | -48.9% | 30 | 25.9% | 29 | 17.8% | 2 |
| 29 | WAS | -59.7% | -19.9% | 32 | 0-1 | -3.1% | 20 | 38.9% | 31 | -17.6% | 31 |
| 30 | NYG | -64.8% | -19.0% | 30 | 0-1 | -47.3% | 29 | 19.3% | 25 | 1.8% | 13 |
| 31 | CLE | -67.1% | 0.3% | 18 | 0-1 | -58.6% | 32 | -2.3% | 12 | -10.8% | 29 |
| 32 | CAR | -93.2% | -19.4% | 31 | 0-1 | -58.1% | 31 | 19.7% | 26 | -15.5% | 30 |
