Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Bryan: Welcome back to our preseason award picks! You’ll find Part I right here, featuring MVP, OPOY, DPOY, and Coach of the Year.
For each award, we are picking a favorite – the person we think is most likely to win, regardless of their betting odds. But after that, we’re also listing players we think are good values for their current odds, as well as some long shots for the truly degenerate among us. And while all of the odds we’ve listed are correct as of time of writing, remember that these odds vary rapidly, especially as we approach the regular season. You can use FTN’s Prop Shop to quickly find the latest and best odds in your state, quickly comparing odds from the sportsbooks legal in your state to find the best odds. Maybe you think Josh Allen is most likely to win MVP – in which case, you’d rather have him at +900 than +800. The Prop Shop will help you get every last scrap of value on your picks.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Highest Odds
- Caleb Williams, CHI (+135)
- Jayden Daneils, WAS (+500)
- Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (+650)
- Bo Nix, DEN (+1000)
- Drake Maye, NE (+1300)
- Malik Nabers, NYG (+1400)
The Favorite
Bryan: My assumption was that this award is “if there’s a good rookie quarterback, they win”. But it turns out that’s not so much the case! There have been 15 seasons since 1979 where a rookie quarterback qualified for our leaderboards with a positive DVOA, but only seven of them won Rookie of the Year – it’s very much a toss-up! Dan Marino lost to Eric Dickerson. Deshawn Watson lost to Alvin Kamara. Baker Mayfield lost to Saquon Barkley. Peyton Manning lost to Randy Moss. Even just limiting us to years when DVOA actually existed, Byron Leftwich and Mac Jones didn’t win. There’s hope for a big flash season from Marvin Harrison or Malik Nabers!
But, no, I think the smart money still has to be on finding the rookie quarterback most likely to do something special, and for me, that’s Caleb Williams (+135). Williams wasn’t the most consistent of the rookies in preseason, but he was the one with the most highlight plays, the one with the best supporting cast of receivers, and the one with the most hype entering the season. We’re down on the Bears compared to the general public but, I mean, we also have eyes. He’s likely not going to have the same density of eye-popping plays against starting defenses, but I’m excited to find out.
Cale: I definitely agree with your point, Bryan. It very much is a toss-up, and frankly I would lean off the quarterback position if there weren’t so many to choose from. Williams and the Bears are going to be a good football team. Daniels and Maye are going to be frisky on bad football teams, each likely putting up some pretty wild highlights. Bo Nix is arguably the most pro-ready quarterback (partly by virtue of age), he could have a Mac Jones-esque rookie performance in Denver.
Marvin Harrison (+650), though, is head and shoulders above the rest of the non-quarterback competition. No other rookie is walking into a true WR1 opportunity (or RB1) outside of Malik Nabers, and I would rather bet on Kyler Murray than I would Daniel Jones. I think Williams is probably the best best on the board overall, but my favorite pick has to be MHJ.
The Field
Bryan: You know who was the most consistent of the rookies in preseason? One Bo Nix (+1000). I mentioned above that Mac Jones had a positive DVOA as a rookie, though he didn’t end up winning the award. I could see Nix having a Jones-ian season; using his extensive experience as an older-than-average prospect to avoid major mistakes and generally keep Denver’s offense moving at a solid pace. Jones lost to Ja’Marr Chase which, well, fair enough. But if none of the rookie skill position players put up huge numbers, a steady hand behind the wheel may just take this.
I’m not going to go too crazy far down the list this time for a longshot. I’ll stick with Xavier Worthy (+2200). The Chiefs have been missing big-play wide receiver ability since Tyreek Hill left, and Mahomes has suffered for it – his lower-than-usual DVOA was in large part due to the massive amounts of screens, quick outs and checkdowns he was forced to use as Kansas City struggled to get anything out of their receiver corps. Is Worthy Tyreek Hill? Probably not. But he’s fast, breaking the 40-yard dash record at the combine, and has shown a real ability to stretch the field in college. I doubt he’ll be consistent enough to get serious consideration, but if he is? Look out.
Cale: Alright, so I’ll just start where Bryan left off. I just like the back half of this class that much. Brian Thomas Jr. is getting rave reviews out of camp, but I just can’t see him winning the award without Lawrence really feeding him early and often. Keon Coleman (+3500), on the other hand, has the national recognition of a contender like the Bills and the opportunity to potentially earn a WR1 slot. It’s the same argument I made for Josh Allen putting the team on his back and winning MVP. There are so many targets vacated on this Bills roster. Buffalo is carrying just five wide receivers on the roster. Coleman will likely start out the gate, and the only two players in relative competition for WR1 designation are a former fifth-round gadget guy in Khalil Shakir and an extremely average slot receiver in Curtis Samuel.
Speaking of opportunity, let’s throw Blake Corum (+7500) into the mix here. The Los Angeles Rams have a history of moving off their backs extremely quickly. Cam Akers replaced Todd Gurley after just five seasons with the team. He lasted just three years before getting bumped for Kyren Williams. Williams doesn’t quite have the tread on his tires to get completely Wally Pipp’d, but he will also get some extra tread by being the team’s punt returner. Whether you ride the injury concern or legitimately believe in Corum’s talent, the potential is there.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Highest Odds
- Laiatu Latu, IND (+425)
- Dallas Turner, MIN (+450)
- Byron Murphy II, SEA (+1000)
- Jared Verse, LAR (+1100)
- Terrion Arnold, DET (+1200)
- Quinyon Mitchell, PHI (+1400)
- Chop Robinson, MIA (+1600)
The Favorite
Bryan: With no defensive player being taken in the first 14 picks of the draft, this award is as open as it has ever been. Higher drafted players are not only (theoretically) more talented; they also get the opportunity to see the field first and thus rack up stats and highlights while later picks ride the pine. Not this year! And that makes handicapping this race particularly tough.
I’m going to stick with Laiatu Latu (+425) as the favorite. He’s going to be a pass-rush specialist early on in Indianapolis, but that’s what he did in college, to the tune of 23.5 sacks in the last two years to lead all of FBS. Pass rushers have won seven of the last 11 DROY awards, and Latu seems primed to get the most sacks, so..yeah! Sometimes it is that simple.
Cale: Yeah, Latu feel slike the most fully developed pass rusher among the lot in this class. He also enters a situation where the defense has more talented focused off-ball than it does on the edge. Taking attention away to cover the interior pass rushing lanes can create opportunities for Latu early.
The Field
Bryan: I would have subjectively put Jared Verse (+1100) up with Latu and Dallas Turner as the favorites – and he has, in fact, gone up since we started writing this piece, so he may have even higher odds by the time you read it. For now, though, there’s a lot of meat on the bone for Verse, who is likely to be closer to an every-down player than Latu will be in year one. The best ability is availability, after all, and if Verse is an every-down player off the gun, is within spitting distance of Latu’s sack total, and is a solid run stuffer, that’s a better all-around player.
For a real long shot, I like Kamari Lassiter (+6000). Cornerbacks have better luck here than in the full DPOY award, and Lassiter has won one of the boundary starting corner roles for Houston. He’s reportedly been keeping pace with Stefon Diggs in practice, and is going to get a lot of targets because who wants to throw at Derek Stingley? A lot of targets means lots of opportunities for interceptions and passes defended before the league catches on…
Cale: If the Mike Macdonald Seahawks defense is going to break out early, I think it will be in no small part because of Byron Murphy II (+1000). Murphy is both a run stopper and a pressure presence on the interior, something crucial to Macdonald’s defensive scheme getting pressure from all angles. Dane Brugler of The Athletic comped Murphy to Grady Jarrett in The Beast, but schematically he could be Seattle’s version of Justin Madubuike back in Baltimore.
Let’s hop back on the cornerback train for a moment and give some shine to Nate Wiggins (+3000). Wiggins has the perfect opportunity to enter an elite defense like Baltimore that needs some supplementary help at the cornerback spot. He has the pass-breakup numbers from college (25 passes defensed in his final 23 games) to contend for a Defensive Rookie of the Year as a corner. I just wonder how much the team’s relative improvement matters in a DROY conversation. If adding a great corner prospect to an elite defense is a problem, the Wiggins is likely going to end up having a tough time winning this award.
Comeback Player of the Year
Highest Odds
- Aaron Rodgers, NYJ (+140)
- Joe Burrow, CIN (+300)
- Kirk Cousins, ATL (+500)
- Anthony Richardson, IND (+700)
- Sam Darnold, MIN (+1200)
- Nick Chubb, CLE (+1200)
- Daniel Jones, NYG (+2000)
The Favorite
Cale: Honestly, who knows what this award is anymore? Last year, Bryan and I wrote all of five sentences on this award because we figured it was a foregone conclusion that Damar Hamlin’s near-death experience would secure him the award. Well, it turns out the only thing worse than nearly dying on the field is playing for the Jets!
Bryan: Fortunately, after the Flacco debacle, the AP has clarified what this award is meant to celebrate. The voters were told that “the spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.” “Other circumstances” is vague enough to give lots of wriggle room, but the intent is clear – this award is dedicated to someone coming back from some sort of absence outside of their control, rather than being a Most Improved award for the likes of Flacco or Geno Smith the last couple years. I don’t mind the exact definition being either of those categories (though I prefer the way the AP phrases it now), but it’s good that the voters are at least theoretically on the same page with what they’re actually voting for now.
With that in mind, this comes down to the top two guys for me, superstar quarterbacks coming back from season-ending injuries (sorry, Kirk). And while Aaron Rodgers coming back from a snapped Achilles four plays into his Jets debut and becoming an MVP-caliber player once more would be the better story, I think it’s more likely that it’s Joe Burrow (+300), shrugging off last year’s calf strain and torn wrist ligament, is one of the year’s top five passers over the aging Rodgers. Both are fine choices, but I’m sticking with Burrow.
Cale: I think Rodgers is probably the best bet given how you laid it out – especially given their shot at contending – but I really think that this year’s best bet could be Kirk Cousins (+500). I like the sheer magnitude of Cousins’ turnaround, joining a loaded offense in Atlanta playing against some easier competition opens up the chance to really stack up some numbers off the wake of a season-ending Achilles tear.
The Field
Bryan: Here’s where we get into the nitty-gritty of how the voters will interpret the new criteria. Would Kyler Murray (+2200) count? Technically, he already came back last season, after all. But he did miss half the year recovering from 2022’s torn ACL. And that’s a “physical injury…that led to him miss[ing] playing time the previous season.” Does it matter that he returned? Does it matter that he wasn’t really at 100% when he returned? Can Murray be good enough to make any of that matter to the 50 voters? I don’t know! We don’t have any sort of history of voting for this award with the new criteria. It’s a brave new world we’re stepping into, and while I probably wouldn’t include Murray in my criteria, I think a straight reading of the rule does include him, and so his odds are fairly solid.
…Justin Herbert (+6000) as my longshot. Not only is Herbert returning from a broken finger, he also is recovering from the terrifying ordeal of being briefly locked in an elevator, an experience which has caused Jim Harbaugh to start composing epic poetry to him.
Cale: Wait, yeah, how are people not talking about Kyler Murray? He went out on injury with DeAndre Hopkins, Kliff Kingsbury, and Zach Ertz in the passing game. By the time he got back, he was in a brand-new offense with brand-new weapons. Now he has a full offseason in Drew Petzing’s offense with Marvin Harrison Jr. and an improved offensive line. Murray may actually get to perfectly middle the new redefined AP definition and the old “victim of circumstances” definition.
Staying with the same organization as Bryan’s pick, give me J.K. Dobbins (+4000) as my longshot. This is historically a bad bet. Quarterbacks have won the award every year since 2018, and a running back hasn’t won Comeback Player of the Year since Garrison Hearst did in 2001. He won the award after becoming the first player in NFL history to suffer avascular necrosis and still play football – let alone rush for 1,200 yards in a season. So is an Achilles tear comparable? Absolutely not. Dobbins has a lengthy injury history, though, and he has always been considered a young running back with some relatively high upside. The change of pace in Los Angeles, coupled with the Jim Harbaugh pairing in what is expected to be a ground-and-pound offense, could afford Dobbins the opportunity to shine. Perhaps a second wind with the Chargers gets Dobbins a lifetime achievement award-style honoring for the last few years of knee injuries.
Super Bowl Winner
Highest Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
- San Francisco 49ers (+600)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
- Detroit Lions (+1200)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1300)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1400)
- Houston Texans (+1600)
- Buffalo Bills (+1600)
- Green Bay Packers (+1800)
- New York Jets (+1900)
- Dallas Cowboys (+1900)
The Favorite
Bryan: Two months ago, this was an easy pick for me. San Francisco 49ers, all the way. The highest projection in the Almanac. Returning basically everyone from a team that was winning the Super Bowl in overtime. A much easier pathway to the championship game rather than having to slug their way through the AFC. A quarterback who actually gets to have a full season preparing to be the starter, rather than trying to make the roster or recover from a season-ending injury. As clean of a path as they’re ever going to get to finally get off the schneid, as well as the Dynasties of Heartbreak list.
Then the Brandon Aiyuk hold-in went into full-on national nightmare saga, Trent Williams held out until almost the start of the season, the 49ers had enough injuries to not be able to hold joint practices during the preseason, and, oh, yeah, their first-round pick got shot. It has been a terrible month to be a 49ers fan! Add that into a bundle of regular year-over-year regression, and can I still call them my favorites?
Well, yes. Yes I can. I suspect Williams will be back shortly, as I doubt the 49ers would have only kept two tackles on their 53-man roster if they were seriously concerned about him missing extensive time. And if he’s back, then the 49ers did, at the last minute, achieve their goal of running everything back. There isn’t anyone else yet in the conference who has taken that step forward to become another top contender, and while it’s likely one of the Lions or Packers or Rams or Eagles will do so, it’s far from a guarantee. While I’d like to get off this rollercoaster, I’m sticking with the 49ers (+600).
Cale: I would love to say the Ravens because their big-bodied style of play offensively and their unique defensive play-calling could open up a very interesting copycat effect for the rest of the NFL after the league spent a decade getting smaller and speedier. I would love to throw the Lions in the mix because I love Dan Campbell, I love the team Detroit has built, and watching this scrappy underdog finally ascend the mountaintop would bring me massive amounts of joy. Hell, San Francisco would be great to see, just because I would love to see the Shanahan Super Bowl narrative get put to bed.
It’s the Chiefs (+500). It will always be the Chiefs until Andy Reid retires, Steve Spagnuolo leaves the team for a head coaching gig, or Patrick Mahomes gets injured. Honestly, it would take two of those things happening for me to consider the field. Last year’s Kansas City team won the Super Bowl on a defense-first roster with no receiving corps. This year, Kansas City actually has players to throw to not named Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice. The offensive line continues its improvement, as does the versatility of this running back room. The defense takes a moderate step back but this core is so young and deep that I don’t think the loss of L’Jarius Sneed will be all that dire. I refuse to be the hot-take connoisseur that tries to get cute and picks another team. The Kansas City Chiefs have the best quarterback and the best head coach in football. There are times where it looks like they might also have the best defensive coordinator in football, too.
The Field
Bryan: You know who I didn’t put in that list of NFC contenders? The Dallas Cowboys (+1900). We’ve all just accepted that the Cowboys will be good-to-great in the regular season and then bomb out hilariously in the playoffs; they’ve done variations of that for a generation now. But that means they’re regularly in the playoffs. Year after year after year. With my pick for defensive player of the year. With a highly underrated quarterback in Dak Prescott (just ask Jerry Jones, who seems insistent on not signing him). And if the path in the NFC is theoretically open for the 49ers, why not the same for Dallas? Betting on the Cowboys is a little like being Charlie Brown, but maybe this time, Lucy won’t pull the football away.
Cale: In the same way I will never not pick the Chiefs until someone proves me wrong, I won’t pick the Cowboys to win anything until they prove otherwise. The last time Dallas made an NFC Championship game, I wasn’t alive. Make it that far, then maybe I’ll start picking you.
Now time to be the biggest hypocrite in the world: how ‘bout those Jets (+1900)?! I said that I would only take their under until I see the Jets break their own bad voodoo. The more I sit with it, though, the Jets just feel like a really well-rounded team. The defense remains elite, the offense is very well-rounded, and if the Jets got 60% of back-to-back-MVP-era Aaron Rodgers, he would be far and away the best Jets quarterback of the 21st century.
Bryan: My longshot, as always, goes with the Chip and a Chair theory. Get into the postseason, and you can get hot at just the right time. Just ask Eli Manning and the 2007 Giants, or Eli Manning and the 2011 Giants or, frankly, Tom Brady and the 2001 Patriots. The NFC South may be boring, but they get a playoff spot and a home game by rule. So, maybe Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints (+10000) can turn in a January Cinderella story of their own. Mediocrity for the win!
Cale: How deep are considering a longshot? I’d love to lean off Bryan and pick an NFC South team, but the Falcons are way too rich to be a longshot at +3000. I’ll settle for a modest +4000 Browns pick. The best defense in the league last season outside of Baltimore, plus Cleveland gets to finally up their aggressiveness in the passing game with Ken Dorsey. Any team out of the AFC North is going to be battle-tested, but the late start for Chubb could keep him fresh and a potential return to form from Deshaun Watson could help the Browns make a run.
