Week 3 Quick Reads: Rated Rookies

Malik Nabers had a big game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, catching eight passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Expecting Nabers to come out as one of the top receivers of the week, I put together a neat table of the top rookie wide receivers over the first three weeks of the season since the start of the 21st century.

So what a surprise when I ran the numbers this morning and Nabers didn’t come out near the top of the week! He doesn’t make the list of the top rookie wide receivers over Weeks 1-3, either. He doesn’t even lead this year’s rookie receivers in DYAR.

Nabers ends up with “only” 30 DYAR for the week in part because of four incomplete passes in the second half of the game and in part because the two touchdowns were both short: 5 yards on first-and-goal and 3 yards on third-and-goal. He doesn’t get a degree of difficulty bump in DVOA even though his footwork on the second one was awesome. A couple of his receptions were short, such as 4 yards on third-and-11 as well as 4 yards on first-and-10.

Nabers is second in this year’s strong rookie receiver class in DYAR after three weeks. (Well, technically it is YAR, since there are no opponent adjustments until next week.) Nabers is at 55 DYAR, 14th among qualifying receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. is at 39 DYAR, which ranks 24th. Ladd McConkey is at 17 DYAR with Rom Odunze at -13 DYAR.

The leader among rookie receivers has only played two games as of this writing: Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jaguars. He has 80 DYAR through the first two games, catching six passes on eight targets with 141 yards and a touchdown plus a 40-yard DPI gain.

I will also note that Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders is currently the No. 1 tight end in total DYAR for the season with 46, just ahead of Isaiah Likely (45) and Cole Kmet (42).

Here’s that rookie wide receiver table, by the way, and we’ll add Brian Thomas to this baby if he has a good game against the Bills on Monday Night Football.

One of these things is not like the others! Denarius Moore was a fifth-round pick for the Raiders whose big first three weeks also included carries of 25 and 20 yards on the ground. You may not remember, but he was mostly a starter for them for three seasons before his career fizzled out.

Now onto the Week 3 results…

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers completed 10-of-13 passes on third down with eight first downs… Lamar Jackson added 12 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown, including the 10-yard carry that ended the game with a Ravens win… Surprisingly, Dak Prescott did not have a huge gap between his performance in the first and second halves, with 59 passing DYAR before halftime and 78 passing DYAR after halftime… Daniel Jones, on the other hand, had 138 passing DYAR before halftime and -26 passing DYAR after halftime… Matthew Stafford led all quarterbacks this week with 91 DYAR on passes up the middle. Andy Dalton was second with 79 DYAR… Bo Nix had only one first down on nine third-down attempts.

Kyler Murray only had one first down on seven third-down attempts, plus a second first down on a DPI… Justin Fields is dead last so far this season with -68 DYAR on passes to running backs. That includes Cordarrelle Patterson, who was the intended target on an interception this week… Gardner Minshew had 64 passing DYAR to the left side but -60 passing DYAR to the right side, including an interception… Caleb Williams has a passing DVOA of -61.3% so far this year on deep passes (over 15 air yards); only Bryce Young has been worse… Derek Carr completed 2-of-7 on first down for just 9 yards, plus a 12-yard sack.

Jalen Hurts managed just 2.4 net yards per pass on second downs, including a sack-fumble… Baker Mayfield had only two deep passes over 15 air yards: an interception in the first quarter and a 16-yard DPI in the fourth quarter… Will Levis had 20 DYAR on first down and then -47 DYAR on second, third, and fourth down combined… Anthony Richardson threw only four passes on first-and-10, one of which was intercepted.

Top Five Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard gained at least 5 yards on 13 of his 21 carries, and didn’t lose yardage once… Derrick Henry only converted one of his three runs on third down, although that was 29 yards on a third-and-1… Saquon Barkley led all backs in rushing value this week and is No. 1 for the year so far… Zach Charbonnet, not listed above, was fourth at 36 rushing DYAR this week.

Bottom Running Back

D’Andre Swift is the lowest running back in rushing value so far this year at -90 DYAR. No other back is below -55 DYAR. He didn’t have a carry longer than four yards this week, and lost 12 yards on a fourth-and-1.

Top Five Wide Receivers or Tight Ends

It was a career-best day for Jauan Jennings, who caught his three touchdowns on first-and-10, third-and-4, and third-and-5. He also had a 34-yard gain on second-and-15… Tutu Atwell had four first downs including a huge 48-yard DPI in the third quarter plus a 50-yard bomb that set up the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter… Chris Olave converted on five of his six catches including three third downs and two second-and-longs… Dallas Goedert had four catches of 20 or more yards and three of those came on third downs including the 61-yard gain that basically won the game for the Eagles.

Bottom Wide Receiver or Tight End

Rashid Shaheed was targeted on four deep passes (over 15 air yards) but couldn’t catch his one short target (5 air yards) either.