Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Bryan Knowles: Six down, two to go! Welcome to the final week of our over/under previews! Today, we’re taking things down to the AFC South, a division which got much more exciting a year ago. The Texans have blossomed into Super Bowl contenders behind C.J. Stroud. The Jaguars looked like contenders until everyone got hurt in December and everything fell apart into a million trillion pieces. The Colts have an exciting, athletic enigma under center, who is either the next big thing or the next Trey Lance, depending on which pieces of evidence you choose to ignore. And the Titans will also be playing NFL football in 2024. What more could you ask for?
Cale Clinton: This is the fun division! Are there expectations? Not really, at least outside of Houston. However, you look at the AFC South top-to-bottom and realize a lot of boxes are getting checked. Everyone has a quarterback on a rookie contract, and at least half of them have already proven they are good. Teams are taking big swings on free agents and draft prospects in an attempt to either be competitive or find some identity (looking at you, Tennessee). This is a division that might not look like the best on paper, but every team is trying to actually find a direction this offseason. How will it shake out? We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see, but we have a pretty good guess. Let’s start with the team that burst onto the scene in 2023 and has a chance to be even better.
Houston Texans (9.5)
Bryan: Normally, I like to see more than one season out of a rookie quarterback before sending him to the moon; small sample sizes producing uncharacteristic results and all that. Remember Mac Jones, Pro Bowl quarterback? You can always find room on the bandwagon a year too late, after all. But no. Not here. All in on C.J. Stroud as a top-10 quarterback with top-five upside. Throw caution to the wind and put your head in the Strouds, the Texans are going all the way!
…to the AFC Championship Game, because Patrick Mahomes is still a thing, but that’s still pretty good, right?
Even if the only thing the Texans got out of 2023 was Stroud, it would have been a successful season, but it’s not just finding a franchise quarterback. It’s finding DeMeco Ryans, an ultimate culture fit for Houston, and having him bring along Bobby Slowik’s version of the Shanahan system to run things. It’s finding Tank Dell in the third round, becoming an immediate impact player when healthy. It’s getting Will Anderson to be the long-term anchor of the defense – and having the first-round pick they traded for him being in the back end of the round rather than in the top 10. It’s the rising-tide-that-raises-all-boats affect that turned Nico Collins from an afterthought into a solid No. 2, at worst; a more aggressive scheme that let Derek Stingley loose in the secondary. And now they’ve decided to splurge big in free agency and the trade market, bringing in Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Dalton Schultz, Denico Autry, Azeez Al-Shaair … I mean, this is a team that knows it has gotten lucky, and decided to go all-in to turn that good fortune into hardware.
Cale: This is how you maximize a rookie window on both sides of the ball. Know C.J. Stroud is a hit? Go secure veteran pass catchers for him to throw to. Know you have a potentially great edge rusher in Will Anderson? Find some talent to put opposite him. It even applies to the young talen tin the secondary like Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre. Swings on Jeff Okudah and Myles Bryant create a deeper secondary where the lead talents are already secured.
It’s what makes me so excited about this Texans team. The sky is the limit for these guys if only because of the massive unrealized potential of Houston’s biggest players. Being in the tank for as long as Houston has given this team the opportunity to completely turn this team around. Now, they have key assets at the most important, game-changing positions on the field. Having a quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback, safety, and two wide receivers all in the first couple years of their career producing at this level is something few teams have come close to replicating since the rookie wage scale was implemented in 2011. Those players still have a lot of room to grow, which is insanely exciting. Plus, all that value lets you do some wonky stuff, like giving Joe Mixon $13 million guaranteed over the next two years.
Bryan: That’s not to say there’s nothing here that’s not concerning. You can’t go from a three- and four-win team to a contender overnight; there are areas where Houston hasn’t quite gotten their roster up to snuff with the top of the roster. The offensive line is a real issue; they weren’t exactly great last year and there have been whispered worries all throughout training camp. They didn’t add anyone here, and are just hoping they won’t have the same injury problems they struggled through a year ago, and that’s putting a lot of pressure on Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs and the rest of the non-Laremy Tunsil line. I think they’re also short a couple starters on defense – they lost multiple players on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps, and there’s a lot of rookies and journeymen being asked to play crucial roles from the start. They might need to win a bunch of games 31-28 or something.
Cale: I’d push back on saying they “lost” defensive talent on the line. There was just a ton of churn. Jonathan Greenard and Jerry Hughes are out, but the Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry additions feel like upgrades, especially if they are used situationally opposite Will Anderson. Their additions make losing Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins’ losses on the interior hurt less, and it allows Houston to fill that void with an elite run-stopper in Foley Fatukasi. Maybe that comes from a difference in philosophy, though, where I like having journeyman plug-ins to bolster a defense short-term. Steven Nelson is probably the biggest loss across the whole defense, but I respect trying to take big swings replacing him via Okudah and C.J. Henderson. Regardless, I think this defense has a chance to improve over last year despite the losses.
But no, I’m all in and riding high. The Texans may not be as complete as some of the other AFC contenders, but their ceiling is as high as can be. Only 9.5 wins? I’m tempted to push that up a win and get higher odds. Over. Give me all the over.
Cale: Might be the easiest over of this entire exercise. Don’t get cute.
Indianapolis Colts (8.5)
Bryan: Allow me to be a bit spicy for a moment. Forget the over/under line here for the Colts. I am instead going to argue for the Colts to have the worst regular-season record, where you can currently find odds as high as +4000.
Alright, let’s already back off just a tad. Do I think the Colts will actually have the worst record in football this year? No. Straight up, I’d probably side with a Denver, or a Washington, or a Chicago – find the team with the rookie quarterback least likely to find immediate success, and back them. That would have worked in 2023 (Bryce Young in Carolina), in 2021 (Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville), in 2018 (Josh Rosen in Arizona), in 2017 (DeShone Kizer in Cleveland), in 2016 (Cody Kessler in Cleveland) and in 2015 (Marcus Mariota in Tennessee). But those teams are on the top of the odds charts for a reason. A +4000 line is just an implied probability of 2.4%. Do I think there’s greater than a 2.4% chance the bottom falls out on this Colts team? Yes. Yes I do.
Cale: I don’t think I’m as down as you, but I see the vision here. This was a nine win team last year and absolutely didn’t play like it. This was a bottom-third team by DVOA, below average on both sides of the ball, and they pretty much held pat in free agency. Does slotting in Anthony Richardson to that exact scenario make this team better? Well…
Bryan: Let’s start simple – no one knows what we’re getting out of Anthony Richardson, as he’s kind of an elevated rookie as is. He is a walking question mark – can he stay healthy? Will a Richardson/Jonathan Taylor option attack be impossible to defend? Can he stand in the pocket and deliver an accurate pass? We’re talking about a one-year starter in college and 173 snaps in the NFL; the range of outcomes is just enormous. And whatever your opinion on Richardson was coming out of college, you found evidence in those 173 snaps that backed you up! His 4.6% passing DVOA masks a player who showed he was willing and able to take risks, both to his credit and detriment. Per our charting (and StatsHub!), Richardson had a highlight throw rate of 4.8%, which would have been sixth-highest in the league last year – he had as many highlight-worthy throws as Kyler Murray did in less than a third as many attempts. But he had just a 69.1% accuracy rate, which would have been the worst in the league last season. You’d expect both numbers to head towards the mean in a larger sample size, but Richardson has a lot more to lose with his big-time throws dropping off than he has to gain from being merely bad, accuracy-wise. 56% of Richardson’s passing plays last season were worth negative DYAR; the only qualified quarterbacks below that mark were Tommy DeVito, Bailey Zappe, Will Levis, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Ryan Tannehill. This is not the group of quarterbacks you want to be compared to! Richardson’s positive stats are living and dying on a handful of big throws, making him a much better quarterback on social media than he has been on the football field.
But, of course, Richardson didn’t play much last year and the Colts were 9-8, albeit against an easier schedule than they had this year. Even if you think he’s going to be worse than Gardner Minshew was last year, that’s not enough for a full collapse, right? No, that would take the defense being bad as well – and lo and behold, we have them projected 30th. I hate their linebackers; when Shaq Leonard turned into a pumpkin and Bobby Okereke turned into a Giant, that left them with E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin – tight ends and pass-catching running backs are circling Colts games on their schedule. I don’t like their free safety situation, with Rodney Thomas and Nick Cross fighting for snaps there. I’m not a fan of their cornerback situation in general. Their front is strong, with DeForest Buckner and first-round pick Laiatu Latu there, but it’s a front backed up by very little. They’d better get constant pressure, or they could well get picked apart.
Cale: This whole thing just feels like it could fall apart so easily. We’ve talked Richardson’s injury issues, but I don’t want to pin that “injury prone” label on a rookie his first few games in the league. Jonathan Taylor, though, I have no problem doing that to. The 2021 rushing leader has had his last two years shortened by various injuries. Michael Pittman is clearly an adept short-yardage receiver, but he’s finished outside the top 50 in receiving DVOA and DYAR back to back years. Quenton Nelson is just as up-and-down over the last few seasons.
The 2023 season felt like an early arrival. Richardson was exciting in his small spurts,then Gardner Minshew played his solid-but-limited brand of backup quarterbacking. Largely, it is the same team as last year’s. If anything, it’s younger than last year’s team. First- and second-year players are going to be asked to play impact roles. I think Laitu Latu is a great draft pick, and I believe Adonai Mitchell is going to be a fantastic offensive talent. With a schedule as strong as the Colts have – 14th in the league by DVOA – I just don’t think this is the year they put it all together to make a run.
It’s an under for me. If we’re playing the simulations game, this team falls apart more often than it breaks out.
Bryan: Will the Colts lose the most games in the league? Probably not. But maybe! And at the very least, I’m worried enough to not want to come anywhere near a .500 line. Under.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5)
Bryan: We’re sure Trevor Lawrence is worth $55 million a year? I know, I know, “The Prince Who Was Promised,” or so proclaimeth his Pro Football Reference page, but Lawrence was 16th in passing DVOA last season. Yes, some of that is poor performance over the final month, when he was obviously hindered by ankle, shoulder and knee injuries. He was more medical tape than man by the time the season came to an end, and his toughness is worth praise. But even excluding those final weeks, he was just 18th in accuracy. There’s just a lack of accuracy over the middle of the field that concerns me. Maybe that’s still some residue of him being a Generational First Overall Pick prospect guy; perhaps I’m dinging him too hard for not being perfect when he had years of hype behind him. But I think of him as an OK starter; not someone you’ve gotta rush out and replace or anything, but worth considering making a move if the bottom falls out and you get a top-10 pick, or a Dak Prescott-type enters free agency. Not someone you necessarily want to lock your team into for the next four years, no questions asked.
In the Almanac, Rivers McCown was quick to point out that the 2023 Jaguars were just the 2022 Jaguars, except with expectations. They were 12th in DVOA in 2022; 10th in 2023. Lawrence was a little bit lucky in 2022 to throw only eight interceptions on 24 interception-worthy throws; that regressed towards the mean last year. Offensive line issues led to more pressure, which in turn increased his sack rate. They were still a good team, just one that didn’t get as many breaks last year as it got the year before. Alright, I can buy that. But I also buy Rivers’ closing lines, as he puts it better than I could: “the story of the team around Lawrence, [Josh] Allen, [Travon] Walker, [Doug] Pederson and company is one of half-measures and question marks.” Where are the Jaguars better in 2024 than they were in 2023? Is it just a matter of counting on better health? Gabe Davis going to unlock the deep ball? Arik Armstead plugging the holes in the interior?
Cale: At the end of the day, the Jaguars still feel like the Jaguars. Even with a market-setting quarterback like Lawrence and a team a year removed from a massive playoff comeback, this team still feels pretty hapless. Trevor Lawrence is without his top wide receiver option of the last season because Trent Baalke tried to get cute playing trade agreement legalese, refusing to give Calvin Ridley an extension and therefore allowing him to walk to division rival Tennessee in free agency. Baalke also dumped money onto the defensive side of the ball in free agency and the best name the came away with is, who, Darnell Savage? 31-year-old Arik Armstead? It’s a The Jaguars chose to clean house and fire Mike Caldwell’s defensive staff despite Jacksonville finishing with the 10th-best defensive DVOA in the league and Press Taylor’s offense finishing with a negative single-game DVOA in four of the last five contests last year.
The frustrating part of this (with regards to making an actual read on this year’s Jaguars) is that none of the moves on the roster side actually hurt them that much. The Ridley loss forced Baalke to take Brian Thomas Jr., who has reportedly been dominating training camp. His defensive free agency deals and expensive extensions at least keeps the Jaguars defensive roster largely in-tact. Replacing Caldwell leading an improving defense with one-time Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is pretty indefensible and I cannot imagine will work out great. Roster-wise, though, this team is sound.
Bryan: To be clear, I do think the Jaguars are a good team – and they were 8-3 at one point last season before the injuries piled up, albeit against an easy schedule. I don’t expect them to win three quarters of their games, but I do think that, on paper, the Jaguars are closer to that 8-3 team than the 1-5 one that closed out the year. With the possible exception of the offensive line – a running theme in this division – the Jaguars don’t exactly have any glaring weaknesses. It’s just a solid team in most places. Lawrence is a solid quarterback. Davis, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas look like a solid receiving corps with some potential to be more. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigby should be a solid running back duo. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker lead a solid pass rush, and Armstead is a solid force up the gut. There’s nothing really to be excited about here, but also nothing that obviously needs replacing? That doesn’t lead to a very interesting preview, I know, but the Jaguars mostly seem … fine, to me. No gushing descriptions of their potential, no doom and gloom portents.
Cale: That’s the exact way I would describe the Jacksonville Jaguars: fine. Honestly, that’s probably a breath of fresh air for most of the Jags fans, hearing the worst reviews about them are just “meh.” There are things to definitely get excited about, but those things get tapered back by the rest of the roster. Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be an awesome addition for this roster, but his impact might not fully translate until he supersedes Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis on the depth chart. Joshua Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Arik Armstead sounds like an incredible defensive front, but the secondary is a bit of a hodge podge. Lawrence was ninth in passing DYAR before the end-of-season collapse.
Honestly, 8.5 isn’t even that high for a team like Jacksonville, but it’s an under for me here. The half-measures and cutesy plays of the Trent Baalke era need to come to an end. At some point, losing on the margins the way Baalke has must manifest at some point. I think it happens this season – just a slow trudge along the middle of the pack. Change needs to come to Duval. There are too many good pieces on this roster for the vibes to be this dire.
Bryan: It’s an unenthusiastic over for me, but it is an over. The odds of Lawrence and the rest of the team being so banged up down the stretch is low. And maybe I’m just out-and-out wrong about Lawrence, and some of the film guys still touting him as a top-10 player despite last season are right. That’s enough upside to make the over seem far more appealing. It’s just not one I’m going to spend much more time thinking about once this article is done, you know?
Tennessee Titans (6.5)
Bryan: I’m still trying to wrap my head around the Mike Vrabel firing, all these months later. It’s not like the Titans had given up and were sleepwalking through the end of last season. Back-to-back losing seasons certainly aren’t great, but the Titans weren’t exactly loaded with unimpeachable talent. Honestly, getting to six or seven wins with the last couple Titans teams seems like an expected result, something to pin on the front office and not the coaching staff. It seems that the biggest reason Vrabel got the axe was falling out with ownership. Always gotta please the big boss first.
…(Remember, you can get 67% off the Almanac with an annual VIP subscription!)
As for the 2024 Titans? I have confidence in their defense’s ability to reach the dizzying heights of average. Losing Azeez Al-Shaiir and Denico Autry will not help, and the strength of the roster has flipped to the secondary as a result, but they still have Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons up front so it’s not like there’s a total void there. Amani Hooker and Elijah Molden are a solid pair of safeties. Cornerback was a problem a year ago, so they brought in L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and it’s nearly impossible to quantify just how big of an upgrade that is – that’s two CB1s from last season, plus their owl very solid slot corner in Roger McCreary. Don’t look too long at the linebackers, and you can get at least moderately excited about this group. The Titans might need to win a bunch of close games to hit their over, and this is both a secondary and a pass rush which could punish you if you’re forced to go one-dimensional.
Cale: This defense is awesome! Alright, let me parse down the enthusiasm a bit. This defense has a bunch of guys where my excitement exceeds their on-field impact. Arden Key was an excellent third pass rusher for the Jacksonville Jaguars, then expanded his role upon moving to Tennessee. He has the chance to open up that role again with the departure of Denico Autry. Chidobe Awuzie, when healthy for Cincinnati, was one of the most productive cornerbacks in the league relative to his value. Shifting around players like Roger McCreary (boundary corner to slot corner) and Elijah Molden (nickel corner to safety) livens up a young secondary. When you add these sorts of pieces to actual bona-fide studs like Landry, Simmons, and Sneed, though, the stars might align where everything clicks and the defense gets an outlier year. If the Titans kept Teair Tart on this roster, they would really be cooking with gas.
The other side of the ball, this is about as good a shot as Will Levis will have to prove himself as a pro. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd are two fantastic offseason adds to the receiving room. If DeAndre Hopkins can function normally at 32 years old after quickly recovering from a knee sprain, it could end up being the second-best receiving corps in the division behind Houston. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chigoziem Okonkwo are both solid home-grown products to boot, giving Levis a whole bunch of options to work with in the passing game. Tony Pollard is going to be solid as a replacement to King Henry, and Tyjae Spears has some high-end receiving upside to offer Levis a bailout screen here and there.
My biggest concern with this group is going to come along the offensive line. Henry’s presence and ability as a power runner bailed out Tennessee a lot in the run game. The Titans offensive line finished 18th in adjusted line yards, second in power rate,and 10th in stuff rate. The pass blocking was not nearly as good, an abysmal 31st in adjusted sack rate and ninth in pressure rate allowed. The JC Latham addition will help smooth things out, and the presence of Bill Callahan will deliver some long-term turnaround, but rebuilding this group will take some time. All these weapons mean nothing if Will Levis doesn’t have the time to throw to them.
Bryan: I am less sold on the offense. People have tried to sell Will Levis to me as a high-variance QB with upside. My issue with him is that a) he takes forever to throw, which invites pressure, and b) he is terrible under pressure. He had the highest gap last season in DVOA with and without pressure, dropping from 64.1% to -107.1%. He took a hit on 24.7% of his dropbacks, highest percentage in the league – and while the frequency of pressure is on his line, his slow processing and poor accuracy (71.1%, third-worst in the league) is on him. He’ll need to take several significant steps forward to become average. He’ll also no longer have Derrick Henry as a safety net, though Tony Pollard is far from the worst replacement in the world (if healthy). His receiving corps should be better, too – Calvin Ridley is probably overpaid, but he and Tyler Boyd represent an upgrade over the likes of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore. And the line is beefed up, drafting JC Latham and bringing Lloyd Cushenberry over from Denver…
You know, I wasn’t expecting to do this when I began, but I think I’ve talked myself into the over. This still looks like a below-average team overall to me, but 7-10 is both a below-average record and still above their line. If Levis does take a step forward, they could even top .500. I don’t think that will happen, but I’m happy with predicting the bottom not to fall out, and for them to scrape by this line.
Cale: That’s the spirit, Bryan! Over for me as well. No team’s method of tried-and-true, long-term team building success has ever been “throw free agents at the problem until we start winning.” Teams should be way more methodical than that. With that being said, it could result in an outlier season early! 6.5 just feels too low for the talent on this roster.
