AFC West Over/Unders 2024

Bryan Knowles: Welcome to the final edition of our 2024 preseason over/unders!  We wrap up our trip through the league with the AFC West, where…

Look, anything can happen in the NFL. That’s a big reason while we watch.  Case Keenum can lead the league in DVOA. The 18-0 Patriots can stumble at the final roadblock against Eli Manning and the Giants. Kurt Warner can go from stockboy to MVP. It’s that very unpredictability that makes the sport popular – if we could accurately predict the winners in August, we likely wouldn’t be watching in February.

But when doing predictions and previews like these, you can’t literally think “anything can happen” – otherwise they’re meaningless.  I try to conceptualize the league in a 20/80 percentile probability sort of way. What’s the most likely range of outcomes, excluding the extreme outliers?  Yes, a nobody can become an MVP, or a superstar quarterback could tear his Achilles four snaps into the season, but trying to predict those kinds of rare occurrences is an exercise in futility. Assuming we’re generally right about the quality of the teams in the league, what are the realistic outcomes?

With that in mind, I think it’s reasonably possible for 31 teams to miss the playoffs in 2024. Is it likely that the 49ers or Ravens stay home in January barring massive injury problems? No. But it’s conceivable. Maybe the ongoing holdouts crimp the 49ers’ offense early on. Maybe the loss of Mike Macdonald sets the Ravens’ defense back.  These probably still lead to winning seasons for both San Francisco and Baltimore, but closer to 10-7  than 13-4.  That, coupled with a strong finish by a divisional rival in the Rams or Bengals, plus a tough fight in the wildcard slog, could lead to these championship teams staying home without having to predict something truly wild and out of the question.  These are reasonable, if unlikely, outcomes.

The one team I don’t think you can do that for is the Chiefs.  Like any of our other top contenders, the Chiefs could stumble their way through the year, but unlike everyone else, I do not think there is a reasonable challenger in the division.  There are worlds where the Chiefs are a weak fourth seed and get blown out by the Bengals or someone, but barring a long-term injury to Patrick Mahomes or someone coming out of nowhere and becoming a superstar, I don’t believe the Chiefs have any competition in the AFC West. I don’t think anyone gets closer than three games from the Chiefs in the AFC West.  In the worst realistic scenario for the Chiefs, I see them wrapping up the division in the first week of December.  We’ll watch, because again, anything can happen, but someone other than the Chiefs taking this division might well be the biggest surprise of the season.

Cale Clinton: This is finally the year where everyone in the AFC West (that isn’t coming off their third Super Bowl victory in five years) collectively decided to hit the reset button. The Raiders got a head start by firing Josh McDaniels midway through his second season. The Broncos gave up on the Russell Wilson experiment, and the Chargers completely pivoted their identity to a ground-and-pound Big Ten football team by shipping all their receivers out of town. 

The results aren’t going to be pretty, either. There is one competent quarterback in the conference not named Patrick Mahomes. The best skill position player not named Travis Kelce is expected to be the hottest name at the trade deadline. Only one defense in the conference not named Kansas City is able to even crack the top half of DVOA projections. Any head coach able to even compete with Andy Reid doesn’t have the roster to do so. 

Yes, there are going to be upsets in any division prediction. We are going to get things wrong. Make no mistake here, though. If anyone but the Kansas City Chiefs wins the AFC West, something was wrong with the Chiefs and not us. Our exercise ends on arguably the most lopsided division in the entire league, even with Kansas City losing their best defender and potentially losing last year’s top wide receiver to suspension. 

Without further ado, let’s conclude our over/unders preview with your 2024-2025 AFC West winners. 

Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)

Bryan: While the Chiefs winning their division seems like a fait accompli, 11.5 is a huge line to get over.  They didn’t manage it last year – remember, they were as low as 8-5 at one point!  A lot of that had to do with the shakiness of their wide receiver corps, but that’s something that has seemingly been straightened out.  Any Rashee Rice discipline will apparently wait until 2025, they added Xavier Worthy in the first round, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster have come in as free agents, and, most importantly, Kadarius Toney got cut.  I don’t know if this group will be better than what Kansas City had at the end of 2023, but I’m fairly confident it will be better than what they had at the beginning of 2023, and that might help smooth over some of those early road bumps.

Cale: The 2023 Chiefs offense felt like a real “You should have gone for the head” moment for the rest of the NFL. Attack this team and seize the window offered when Patrick Mahomes had nobody to throw to. Now Kansas City is pretty much re-tooled offensively. If teams couldn’t stop the Chiefs when Mahomes was posting the lowest aDOT of his career, it won’t get any easier with Xavier Worthy in the fold. Not to turn this into a fantasy article, but the influx of receivers and the commitment to involving running backs in the passing game last year has be really excited about Isaiah Pacheco’s chances. Who knows how 35-year-old Travis Kelce is going to play this season (hint: he’ll probably still be great if Mahomes is throwing to him), but this is definitely the most loaded a Chiefs offense has been post-Tyreek. It might even be the deepest of Mahomes’ tenure if Rice stays with the team. 

Bryan: No, the yearly “what’s wrong with the Chiefs!?” article may have to be written about the defense instead. Losing L’Jarius Sneed will hurt; the duo of Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson as outside corners can be politely described as questionable. I think the safeties are worse; Justin Reid gets burned too much in coverage and it’s hard to really get a grip on Bryan Cook due to his season-ending injury last year. I also question just how much pressure the Chiefs will be able to get off the edge; there’s a reason Steve Spagunolo often decides his best hope is to send pressure and get sacks from the second level.  The Almanac projects both the Chiefs offense and defense to be fifth in the league, but it’s the defense I’d feel less confident about.

Cale: I am slightly less concerned, if only because of how much I trust Spagnuolo. Kansas City pretty much returning their entire front seven – the pressure-heavy, mutable-front defense that domated middle-of-the-field passes – will help the shifting secondary tremendously. This is a group that is incredibly young and still has a ton of room for growth. Losing an elite corner like Sneed is obviously going to be difficult to overcome, but the Chiefs have dominated with way worse defenses. 

I never expected to be this all-in on an over for a 12-plus win team. The reigning Super Bowl champions are playing the NFC South and get six games against the worst division in the AFC. I personally don’t think they drop a single one of those games, even if they play the regular season on autopilot like they have the last couple years. I think the Chiefs can find a couple wins across the rest of their schedule. I won’t go as far as to call this free money, but this is about as close to a lock as I’d be willing to claim. If I were confident the Chiefs actually cared about regular season accolades, I would tell you to hammer the Chiefs for most regular-season wins at +500. It’s +4000 to go undefeated if you’re really kooky.

Bryan: I do think I’m picking at nits here, because there’s not much more than nits to pick. You don’t want to just write “the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, therefore, over”, but … I mean, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. They play in what I feel is going to be a down division.  They’re the two-time defending Super Bowl champs with a below-average schedule according to our projections.  Over.

Los Angeles Chargers (8.5)

Bryan: The biggest pushback to the “Chiefs have no division rivals” take I’m pushing here will be the Chargers, I’m sure.  Jim Harbaugh’s there!  They’re going to be attacking the day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind!  Justin Herbert’s on the verge of becoming a Tier 1 quarterback, according to Mike Sando’s poll of NFL decision makers.  Sure, they were 5-12 last year, but just ignore that.  It’s a brand new day out there, San Dieg … er … Los Angeles, and the Chargers are ready for action and…

…OK, why on Earth is this line 8.5?  This was a five-win team last year that lost a bunch of big-name talent, albeit big-name talent past their prime.  Out goes Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Will Clapp, Austin Johnson, Eric Kendricks, Kenneth Murray, Michael Davis. I get that a reset was needed, and the excitement of bringing in a coach who just won the college national championship and has taken a team to the Super Bowl before is really exciting. And as someone who has lived through the Harbaugh Experience, it’s very easy to get caught up in the cult of personality; there’s little doubt in my mind the Chargers will be more entertaining in 2024, even if that doesn’t necessarily translate to the football field in any meaningful way in Year 1.  Harbaugh has already compared himself to Red from Shawshank Redemption, has called himself Batman with GM Joe Horitz being Robin, and Ted Lasso – and that was just in his introductory press conference.  Buckle up, Chargers fans, you’re in for a ride.

Cale: I’m sorry, Bryan, but you’re going to look at me with a straight face and tell me that this Chargers offense doesn’t get you fired up? We’re talking Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkey, AND DJ Chark. The Ravens running back room that hasn’t stayed healthy in three years is doing the damn thing in powder blue! Jim Harbaugh said elite tackle prospects count as weapons, so they must count for points, right? 

This is going to be a bizarre year for the Chargers. I think they are doing the right thing by pretty much completely blowing up their offense and starting from scratch. That process just gets a bit harder when Johnston looks like he’s a bust. Johnston is a deep threat guy who finished 2-for-15 on deep passes last season. That’s bad! McConkey is an exciting receiving prospect, but he might be the only legitimately threatening receiver on this roster. Kimani Vital has some exciting potential but will likely get buried until an injury hits the roster (which feels almost inevitable with Dobbins and Edwards in the room).

Bryan: Ah, but they can be bailed out by their defense, which features…the worst interior in the entire NFL!  Poona Ford, Morgan Fox and Otito Ogbonnia backed up by Dayan Henley and Denzel Perryman is a big flashing “run the ball up the gut” signal.  But it’s OK, because they’re also lacking at cornerback, so they can leave some of the pressure on their run defense by allowing big plays in the passing game. 

OK, I think Joey Bosa is due for a bounceback season, so the edge rushers are good.  And we’re not Mike Tanier here; I think we do actually believe Herbert to be a good quarterback who will get better results than the talent level of the receiving corps suggests.  But a maybe-OK offensive line and a top-10 quarterback does not an offense make.  The Chargers over .500?  I’d rather take the Chargers to finish last in the division, and I say that knowing full well who the other two teams in the division are.  Under.  Under under under.

Cale: I just can’t even see a path to this team winning games. This will inevitably be a run-heavy offense. This group screams slow-paced, low-scoring, tough-nosed group. Okay, that would imply the defense is going to help secure victories here. Then you look to the other side of the ball, and you realize this is still the group that finished with a single-game DVOA north of 30% four different times last year. This defense is Derwin James, Asante Samuel Jr., and Joey Bosa. I don’t know if Khalil Mack can repeat his 17-sack season, and I am wary of Bud Dupree in this defense. Beyond that? We’ll see who pops in-season, because I can’t find other game-changing players on this roster. Solid run game, good offensive line, a quarterback with no one to throw to, and a couple chips on defense. Blah. 

The five-year Harbaugh contact and the Herbert five-year extension is the timetable for this team. This pretty much feels like Year 0 of an expedited overhaul, because the roster as currently constructed can’t contend in any way, shape, or form. Under for me as well. This isn’t happening in 2024, and it likely won’t click for real until 2026 without some big blockbuster acquisition. 

Las Vegas Raiders (6.5)

Bryan: And away we go from the land of false hope and into the land of no hope.

Honestly, 6.5 seems like a reasonable over/under for all three of the other teams in the division. If you had pinned the Chargers at 6.5, I still likely would have gone under, but at least I wouldn’t have just sat there gawking at the number for two paragraphs.  So credit where credit is due – the public has an appropriate level of skepticism when it comes to the 2024 Las Vegas Raiders!  Then again, how could you not look at Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell and not second-guess any scraps of optimism you may have?  J.J. McCarthy’s injury may have prevented this from being the worst quarterback room in the league this year, but when the best thing you can say is “well, at least it’s not Sam Darnold”, maybe you’re better off hitting the craps tables one more time rather than checking out Allegiant Stadium.

But while I think the Raiders are a bad team when looked at on the whole, I like them a lot more if you zoom in.  And I mean all the way in.  The Raiders are terrible on All-22, but if you crop the frame so you get just one yard on either side of the line of scrimmage: Am I crazy, or do you see a good team?  Maxx Crosby is no more than a half-step behind any other pass rusher in the league, and Malcolm Koonce had eight sacks next to him at age 25.  Christian Wilkins comes in in free agency to give an inside pass rush Las Vegas has been missing.  On offense, Kolton Miller is a very good left tackle, they have two other solid starters in Andre James and Thayer Munford, and they added Jackson Powers-Johnson in the draft, which is a great name, if nothing else.  And they’re strangely loaded at tight end with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer and even Harrison Bryant.  Just keep that focus in nice and tight, and that looks like a contending team!  No, don’t pull back to reveal the secondary or the backfield and oh no, now the skin is melting off my face.  Thanks, cameraman.

Cale: I’m right there with you! No, seriously. This isn’t going to be a well-rounded team, but it’s going to be a playable team. First off, whether Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell starts at quarterback, there is going to be serviceable quarterback play. Both have their limitations, but both can win you a football game if there are pieces there to help him out. Minshew damn near got the Colts to the playoffs, and the 2023 Colts couldn’t come close to this receiving corps. Davante Adams hasn’t been traded yet, Jakobi Meyers is going to get a very steady diet of 90-100 targets every year, and the Brock Bowers-Michael Mayer tight end duo has me legitimately excited. The run game is going to be pretty miserable, but Zamir White had a couple amazing games down the stretch in relief. Who knows when he’ll pop?

Now this front seven gets to add Christian Wilkins to a pass rush that already boasts Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce? Don’t mind if I do! Crosby and Wilkins have the opportunity to play a ton of games off each other and can wreak havoc on one side of the ball. The corners are going to be awful, sure. That obviously doesn’t bode well for a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert involved, but having such a great pass rush is going to take a ton of pressure off the pass converge. Again, this is not a complete team by any stretch. 

Bryan: Maybe it’s just because I used the full tonnage of pessimism while dealing with the Chargers, but I like the Raiders over this rather unambitious line.  Minshew may be someone you want as a backup rather than a starter, but he’ll scramble his way into some wild wins from time to time.  This year is more about getting out from under the mistakes of the previous two regimes than competing right now, but hey, Josh McDaniels not being around has to be worth a win or two, right?  If we’re counting moral victories, the Raiders will cruise past this line with ease!

Cale: The Las Vegas Raiders are going to lose a few games very ugly. Certain options are going to absolutely tear this team apart. There are enough good pieces here, though, that will make this team competitive. I am also a believer in a good-vibes head coach like Antonio Pierce willing a team like the Raiders to an upset victory or two. That’s a coaching trait that is way more effective during an interim coach tenure than a full-time coach tenure. It’s easy to have a fresh face to excite a team. All of a sudden you’re caught up in the moment and beating the Chiefs. I don’t think that happens this year, but I do think the Raiders go over and surprise a couple teams. Minshew is just a good enough replacement-level quarterback, and there are a ton of good players at important positions who could shift the tide of a game or two. 

Denver Broncos (5.5)

Bryan: I was pleasantly surprised by Bo Nix in the preseason; he was arguably the best passer of all six first-round rookies.  That, in and of itself, doesn’t mean anything going forward, but it would be concerning if you couldn’t put up good numbers going against vanilla defenses and backup rosters. It’s more a demonstration of baseline competency, but it’s not one that’s an automatic pass.  While it’s easy to come up with examples of rookies who had strong preseasons but couldn’t keep that momentum into games that counted, but it’s much harder to find rookies who looked overmatched in August and then handled their business come September.

A lot of people – myself included – laughed at Sean Payton’s hyping up of Nix in the immediate aftermath of the draft, because it sounded like covering for the fact that they ended up with QB6.  Sure, Sean, you feel the same way about Nix as you did about Mahomes.  Sure, he’s got the pocket presence of Drew Brees.  You’re just saying that because the Falcons blew up the draft board, right?  Right?  Well…no, Nix isn’t going to be Mahomes or Brees out of the gate, but what if he can run this offense?  He’s a better fit for what Payton has historically done than Russell Wilson ever was, and if he’s competent, there’s … upside here?  It’s not a bad offensive line for a rookie to be working behind. Mike McGlinchey gets (rightly!) mocked for his pass protection, but he’s a very solid run blocker, and he and Garrett Bolles make a better set of tackles than most rookies get (hi, Drake Maye!).  Add in Quinn Menierez as a very good guard, and, am I crazy, or is that the foundation of something intriguing?  Or, at least intriguing in the context of having to find six wins.

I don’t want to overhype Denver, which has essentially zero skill position players of note, no real pass rush, and no way to cover tight ends or running backs.  These are fatal flaws to a successful season, and the Broncos may have the lowest ceiling of any team in the league. They haven’t had a winning season since 2016, and I don’t think 2024 will be the year they figure things out.  Denver was a mess when Payton arrived, and we’re likely several years away from enough of the bric-a-brac being cleared away to even consider Denver in the lofty stratosphere of “borderline wild-card contender.” But I’m not sure I see the bottom falling out here; not all the way. 

Their home slate, in particular, seems very inviting – Pittsburgh, in a Russ revenge game; Carolina and their panicked attempts to make Bryce Young a thing; Indianapolis if you happen to not believe in Anthony Richardson; Atlanta if you happen to not believe in their defense.  Add in the round-robin with the other East non-contenders … and yeah, I’m going over.  It’s the lofty heights of six, maybe even seven wins, but Nix has done enough to make me believe that the Broncos can explore the world of being merely bad, rather than terrible.

Cale: Bryan, I like your optimism. I just can’t wrap my head around it translating into a ton of wins. Nix is going to be the most pro-ready quarterback of anyone in this class. That’s partly because he got his first reps playing against Justin Herbert. Nix misses being a 25-year-old rookie by a few weeks. That would be ideal for a team with a short-term window, but there is nobody for nix to work with here outside of Courtland Sutton. We’ll see how Troy Franklin pans out, but I’m not putting much stock in an 11 personnel with Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims involved. I am much less optimistic about the offensive line, but the Cushenberry-for-Mustipher swap at center should raise the floor a bit. Nix hype or not, the Broncos offense is going to have a tough time this season. 

This defense, though, is my real concern. This is a team that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins and managed to arguably get worse. I am usually a big fan of the veteran stopgap to provide a quick boost to a defense, but Jonathan Franklin-Myers does not inspire confidence in the front-seven. Levi Wallace and Brandon Jones don’t make up for the roughly 2,600 snaps Denver lost in the secondary. This is a defense that has been shedding talent for the last three years at this rate. They haven’t done the best job at replenishing it, either. Since drafting Patrick Surtain II in 2021, Denver hasn’t spent higher than a third-round pick on a defensive prospect. Those folks range somewhere between rotation-level players (Drew Sanders) to borderline unplayable (Damarri Mathis). This is a multi-year rebuild for the Broncos defense. 

I do not see a path to hope – let alone victory – on this Broncos roster. Best case scenario, Nix has a Mac Jones-esque rookie season and can string together some touchdown drives against bad teams. Denver doesn’t play many world-beating defenses, so I could see Denver overperforming on offense. I just don’t think they overperform enough to make up for how bad I think their defense will be. Under.