Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Where the Dak Prescott MVP Case is Lacking
If the NFL MVP award is about narratives as much as it is about performance, then Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are writing one that measures up to the veteran quarterback’s productivity on the field. After handshake Week 1 and 2 blowouts of a pair of overmatched New York teams — the latter reeling from […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Purdy: Most Valuable Player Compared to Salary
“Most Valuable Player” is kind of a weird name for an award, isn’t it? There’s no reason the NFL needs to call its biggest award that. We could be talking about the most outstanding player in the league or the most important player or the most useful player or the most exceptional player. We could be handing […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: 49ers Now an All-Time Top-5 Team
The San Francisco 49ers continued their winning ways this week, dominating DVOA and every other advanced NFL metric across the Internet. The 49ers are now up to 45.3% DVOA and 47.9% weighted DVOA. They are No. 1 on offense by a ton but also No. 4 on defense. Their special teams are below average, ranked […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 Quick Reads: Why Brock Purdy Is Like Randall Cunningham
Brock Purdy has easily been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL during the 2023 season. Purdy now leads all quarterbacks with 48.9% passing DVOA. He also leads quarterbacks in passing DYAR despite throwing fewer passes than most starters. That brings up the controversy about whether Purdy should be the MVP or not. Purdy is […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Jets Lead Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Steelers-Patriots and Lowest NFL Over-Under Totals
This is a general reminder to everyone: there is nothing stopping you from just … not watching tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Seriously. Get some holiday shopping done. Call a loved one. Hell, go watch a movie. Anything but watching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play some caricature of a “football game.” The […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft First Pick Odds: Patriots vs. Panthers (Bears)
It’s the last race you want to win when the contest begins in September. But by the time December rolls around, you’re kind of rooting for it. The first overall pick. The first place prize for the last place team. So who is it going to be this year? Current Odds of Getting the First […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Jets vs. The Worst QB Situations Ever
To be a fly on the wall in the New York Jets’ quarterback room. They’re not content to just be the worst passing offense in football, with a -27.6% DVOA. Oh no. They’re not content to be pushing for the worst passing offense in franchise history, either, tied with the 1995 Boomer Esiason squad in […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: 49ers Dominating the NFL
The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 Quick Reads: Big Seasons for Aiyuk and Hill
Tyreek Hill does not make our Quick Reads list of the top five wide receivers of Week 13. Neither does Brandon Aiyuk. Hill ends up eighth, thanks to one catch for a 6-yard loss and the opponent adjustments for playing the worst pass defense in the league, the Washington Commanders. Aiyuk is even lower, since […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 13 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Put Some Respect on the Jaguars’ Name … and Defense
The 2023 race for the AFC No. 1 seed might be up there for one of the most competitive in recent memory. The four teams leading their divisions right now – the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Miami Dolphins – all currently sit at either 9-3 or 8-3. Headed into […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA Through Week 12
You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Are Eagles the Next DVOA Underdog Super Bowl Champions?
Will the Eagles keep winning starts with how the Eagles keep winning – and the answer is … well, complicated. They have by no means dominated their opponents, culminating in a 15.6% DVOA for the season. This kind of DVOA gives them an outlook that falls well below the average expectation level for us Philadelphia […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the 2023 Playoff Race
One benefit about the NFL’s bizarre 18-week, 17-game schedule is that it breaks the season nicely into three thirds. That’s aesthetically pleasing to me; every season is its own story, and a three-act structure is a fun way to view the year from 20,000 feet, as it were. You have all your important characters and […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Records of the Ravens Run Game
It’s getting tight at the top of our DVOA ratings after 12 weeks of the 2023 NFL season. At the same time, it’s not tight at all. That’s because we have two teams nearly tied and then a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens remain No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 Quick Reads: Remaining Schedules
Before we got into the best and worst players of Week 12, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining schedule strength for players. This should particularly be a help for fantasy football purposes. With that in mind, I looked at average defensive DVOA of opponents in Weeks 13-17, leaving […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 12 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Who is the 2023 Coach of the Year?
At the two-thirds mark of the NFL season, some end-of-year awards are much harder to decide than others. One of the hardest to currently predict: Coach of the Year. It’s one of the few awards that cannot truly be determined until the last weeks of the season, but there are a whole heap of candidates […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Turkeys for 2023
How do you prepare your turkey? I’m a stickler for brining; the number one problem with a terrible turkey is having it dry out and brining it helps it absorb extra moisture and make a juicer, more flavorful bird. But there are dozens of ways to go about it. I’ve enjoyed deep-fried birds, spatchcocked birds, […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Why DVOA Puts Eagles and Steelers Together
Something is afoot in the state of Pennsylvania, at least when it comes to DVOA ratings. Why do we have Philadelphia so low and Pittsburgh so high? They’re right next to each other, ranked 10th and 11th. Yet the Eagles lead power rankings around the Internet and have the best record in the NFL at […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 Quick Reads: Deep Cuts
You gotta be able to get the ball deep sometimes. Man does not live on checkdowns and short crosses alone. Brock Purdy got the ball deep on the way to being this week’s top quarterback by DYAR. Purdy currently leads the league in DVOA on deep passes, defined in the league play-by-play as passes of […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Whatever Happened to the Class of 2021?
The 2021 draft’s quarterback class was supposed to be special. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round, including the top three picks. In total, a record eight quarterbacks were selected in the first two days. The draft had everything: highly-revered generational talents, tried-and-true pocket passers, big-upside projects, backyard ballers, dual-threat scramblers. You name it, […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 11 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
C.J. Stroud and the DYAR Leaders
Things change fast in the NFL. Last week, as we broke down the midseason award leaders, we noted that, all else being equal, the default choice for MVP should be the player leading the league in passing DYAR. And that was one Patrick Joshua Allen. Yeah, so, about that… You might argue that take aged […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: How Real are the Ravens’ Q4 Problems?
The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 Quick Reads: Another Impressive C.J. Stroud Joint
Updated Tuesday morning with Monday Night Football. None of this week’s best or worst players really stood out historically so I thought it would be a good week to take stock of the whole season. Which players have seen the biggest opponent adjustments so far? Remember that opponent adjustments aren’t based just on how good […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 10 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How the Chiefs Built a Top Defense
This has been an unusual season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, the Andy Reid-coached offense is still good. Patrick Mahomes is performing toward the top of the league. Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in receiving DYAR. That’s all typical, but it hasn’t been the story dominating Kansas City’s season. For the first time […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 NFL Midseason Awards Leaders
It’s Week 10 in the NFL. Do you know where your MVP is? Handing out midseason awards isn’t about actual hardware or anything – no one celebrates being MVP in October. But it’s a good framework to reflect on what we’ve seen over the first 136 games of the season and try to figure out […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness
The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]
Aaron Schatz