Slot vs. Wide 2023: Wide Receivers

Hey, remember last month when we ran an article talking about the top receivers in the NFL, and how the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers should go ahead and pay CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk? Let’s do that again, shall we?

With the FTN Football Almanac 2024 now available, it’s time to dive a bit deeper into the charting stats. FTN’s charting allows us to break down receiver performance into slot and wide categories.  We can be more accurate here than we were in the past, as well.  Previous iterations of this article dealt with slot and wide targets based on the hashmarks. You could be counted as a slot receiver even if you were the furthest to the outside in the formation if you lined up tight enough. (Well, not you reading this, unless you are an NFL receiver.) Now we treat receivers based on where they’re lined up in relation to one another.  For example, if three wide receivers are in a trips bunch that is tight to the formation, the outside receiver is marked as “wide” even though he is somewhat tight to the formation.  This means our numbers this year can’t be directly compared one-to-one with the stats of previous years on our old website, and slot rates will be lower than what we recorded in the past, but they also better reflect the actual reality of plays.  Just because the Rams historically have used the skinniest formations in the NFL doesn’t mean they’re made up of nothing but slot receivers, after all.

Some general numbers, then, before we dive into the specifics.

29.9% of all pass attempts in 2023 were targeted to the slot, with an average receiving DVOA of 0.3%, compared to 0.1% for passes aimed out wide.  Passes to the slot were caught more frequently – 67% to 61% out wide – but were also about three yards shorter on average, with only an extra half-yard of YAC to back them up.  This means they ended up with identical 50.4% success rates, as everything sort of cancelled each other out.  Limiting the look to just wide receiver, slot percentage jumps to 32.4%, and the DVOAs change to -0.6% in the slot and 1.0% out wide, but the numbers are very similar in aggregate.

This is where the change in definition really kicks in.  When we ran these numbers with our previous data charting, targets to the slot routinely came in just a bit higher than targets out wide.  In 2021, we had WR slot DVOA at 4.1% and wide DVOA at -4.2%.  But some of those ‘slot’ targets from prior years were really outside receivers in tight formations. Considering that the teams at the forefront of using these tight formations include Sean McVay’s Rams, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers and the various offshoots of those systems, and those schemes are routinely at the top of the passing DVOA charts, you can see how the data might get skewed. Our data was really highlighting how top offenses have been using more and more tight formations, dictating defensive coverage and isolating outside corners for their outside receivers, even if they happen to be standing one step inside the numbers.

Both methods do reveal something about the passing game in the 2020s.  Tight formations are in vogue among the top offenses, and are producing greater results than ever before. But those targets and that value are being generated just as much by the receivers breaking outside than it is by the slot guys working the seams.

Slot Receivers

Here are the top 20 receivers in terms of DYAR generated from the slot in 2023.

With our new definitions, just 15 of the 81 qualified wideouts spent more time in the slot than split wide in 2023.  Only four of those 15 showed up in the top 20 – CeeDee Lamb (53.8%), Jayden Reed (68.5%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (58.8%) and Christian Kirk (80.0%, most in the league). While DYAR is a counting stat and more attempts will usually be more beneficial, it’s good to note that this isn’t strictly a list of the players with the most opportunities.

Combine the most slot targets in the league with the 19th highest DVOA (out of 81 qualified receivers), and you have the recipe for Lamb finishing nearly 100 DYAR ahead of the rest of the pack. If anything, that 23.0% DVOA is underselling just how good Lamb was working from the inside in 2023.  The Cowboys gave Lamb 22 quick out targets from the slot, more than any other wide receiver in football.  Lamb got a grand total of 0 DYAR on those targets, with a -12.9% DVOA.  These are short dink-and-dunks, with an aDOT of just 2.6, and Lamb isn’t the world’s greatest YAC generator.  Throw those out, and instead look at the plays where Lamb was actually allowed to run downfield, and Lamb’s DVOA jumps to 34.0%, as his slants, deep outs, and dig routes proved too much for most of the league to handle.

We don’t want to paint Lamb as some sort of slot specialist. He’s one of seven wideouts to appear in the top 20 in both wide and slot DYAR, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Ja’Marr Chase, Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill.  Lamb can win no matter where he lines up.  But no one in 2023 was able to cause quite as much defensive anguish inside as Lamb was.  It is worth noting, though, that Lamb’s two seasons with double-digit receiving DVOA have coincided with him moving back to the slot on a regular basis, after not seeing nearly as much work there in 2021 as Dallas tried to use him more as a traditional X type on the outside.  Lamb has reiterated in the past that he’s comfortable “anywhere on the field … inside the numbers, outside the numbers, in the backfield to run a route.” He’s not wrong – his versatility is a large part of what makes him stand out – but his ability to crush slot corners 1-on-1 is what turns him from a very good wideout into one of the very best in the league.

The Packers’ duo of Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks is worth shouting out here.  Wicks makes the top 20 on the back of a handful of deep dig routes; his 151 DYAR is impressive but that 75.4% DVOA is a small sample-size mirage. This is more “Wicks was good on deep routes” and less “Wicks was good in the slot.” Reed, on the other hand, showed more consistency as the year went along and he got his NFL footing underneath him. The second-round pick out of Michigan State wasn’t just a shifty speed guy, either – though, yes, he had 12 of those quick outs as well. Reed’s most prolific route from the slot was actually the straight go route – 57 DYAR, fifth among receivers and sixth among all players on those routes.  If the Packers’ young receiving corps can continue moving in the direction they finished 2023, Green Bay’s offense should hum in 2024.

Rondale Moore was the worst wide receiver from the slot, with -84 DYAR and a -42.3% DVOA on 37 targets. A diet of screens and shallow crosses is not ideal for one’s statistical relevance.

Wide Outs

Here are the top 20 receivers in terms of DYAR generated out wide in 2023.

Shanahan’s 49ers have historically not been great throwing to wideouts, at least by our previous definitions of such. A lot of that dealt with playing to the strengths of the previous quarterback; Jimmy Garoppolo has always been more comfortable throwing over the middle of the field than pushing the ball outside the numbers. With a passer now willing to push the ball the outside on occasion, Brandon Aiyuk was able to take a pretty significant DVOA lead on the rest of the field.  Aiyuk ranked just 23rd in targets split out wide and still managed to slip to the top of the DYAR charts, a testament to just how much damage he did on a comparatively limited workload.  Maybe a 49.4% DVOA wouldn’t hold up with 100+ targets, but he was leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the league, more than 10 points ahead of second-place Nico Collins.  Even adjusting that down a little bit doesn’t dampen how impressive a year it was for him.

Aiyuk and Tyreek Hill were basically tied atop this table, with 38X DYAR each.  Hill did most of his damage on deeper routes, putting up 343 DYAR on passes at least 15 yards downfield.  He led the league on DYAR on both deep outs and go routes when split out wide, as “Tyreek is down there somewhere” remains one of the best plays in football.  Aiyuk led the league in DYAR on deep posts, but did most of his damage on short routes split wide, with 214 DYAR on passes shorter than 15 yards downfield.  Aiyuk didn’t lead in any category other than deep posts because of a lack of overall volume, but he did have just enough to squeak past Hill in the counting stat. It would be interesting to see what he could do on an offense where he as the clear primary target, with the sort of volume a Hill, Brown or Metcalf put up.  As it is, he’ll have to settle for just being a super-efficient target for at least one more year, barring a stunning last-minute trade.

Hill and Jaylen Waddle formed the top outside duo in the league in Miami, as the Dolphins’ track-team of an offense raced up and down the sidelines.  Ideally, they’d find a third running mate in the slot; Hill and Waddle were also Miami’s top two slot targets in 2023, with Durham Smythe and Cedrick Wilson lagging behind.  New addition Odell Beckham Jr. is not a slot player (just 14.7% of snaps there last year), so perhaps we’ll see more of Hill working inside in 2024.

The worst receiver out wide in 2023 was Jonathan Mingo, with -165 DYAR and a -45.0% DVOA split out wide.  No one else was below -60.

Specialists versus Generalists

38 receivers had at least 25 targets both out wide and in the slot in 2023.  This table ranks their DVOA difference, going from players better in the slot to those better out wide.

One of the biggest questions leading into 2023 for the Las Vegas Raiders was just how Josh McDaniels would compose his offense, with Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow both being primarily slot guys fighting over the same role.  The answer appears to be “badly,” as Meyers was asked to play out wide 75% of the time and barely cracked a league-average DVOA, while performing much better in his limited use in the slot. He was one of many square pegs in round holes for the 2023 Raiders.  It makes sense why someone like Brandin Cooks didn’t get a ton of time in the slot; CeeDee Lamb was there doing a lot of work, and you can only run so many snaps of 2×2 formations.  Meyers led the Raiders with 91 slot DYAR, while Renfrow and Davante Adams combined for -66.  Each player had between 24 and 31 targets out of the slot, as Las Vegas’ offense seemed to be just randomly pulled out of a hat for large stretches of last season.

The biggest surprises on the list are probably Amon-Ra St. Brown and Curtis Samuel being down at the bottom, where players are better out wide than in the slot.  St. Brown is the prototypical slot receiver these days, and only six players were in the slot more frequently than Samuel was.  And yet, both players saw massive jumps in their DVOA when split out wide.  What gives?

For Samuel, it’s likely just a small sample size; Samuel had a pair of deep corner receptions earn him 32 DYAR and a big 25-yard wheel route as part of his 28 wide targets; a couple rare good plays from Washington’s pass offense are offsetting his numbers there.  For St. Brown, you’re seeing depth of target stuff here.  St. Brown’s slot work included nine screen plays, 10 shallow crosses, 17 quick outs and two swing passes.  Those 38 targets had an aDOT of 2.1, with -24 DYAR and a -20.7% DVOA.  On all other targets out of the slot, St. Brown’s DVOA jumps to 29.7% with an aDOT of 9.6 – throw him the ball deeper down the field, and he makes bigger plays.  St. Brown’s aDOT on his wide targets is 10.3, deeper still.  We’re not saying St. Brown should get a diet strictly of go routes or anything, but a few fewer screens and shallow crossers probably wouldn’t go amiss as the Lions fine-tune their attack slightly.