Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

If you typically emerge from the Thanksgiving break ready for a fantasy football playoff push, then I have some bad news. We are back to six teams on bye in Week 13! But never fear, my Start and Sit column for Week 13 can help you with fill-in and matchup-driven options at every position.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

Quarterbacks

5. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. DEN: 35.7-298-1.61-0.50 and 2.1-9-0.12 = 19.0
6. Kyler Murray, ARZ at PIT: 36.8-246-1.29-0.74 and 5.1-31-0.36 = 18.7
7. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at WAS: 34.3-289-1.85-0.89 and 2.1-3-0.06 = 17.9

8. Brock Purdy, SF at PHI

28.0-264-1.54-0.56 and 2.9-11-0.15 = 17.6

With the 17th overall and 21st pass defense DVOA this season, the Eagles are not the same scary opponent matchup they were in 2022. But I wouldn’t be too scared for Brock Purdy even if they were. Purdy threw 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in Weeks 3, 7 and 8 that either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk missed. And he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions the rest of this season with his full complement of skill players. With everyone healthy, he’s an every-week fantasy starter.

9. Sam Howell, WAS vs. MIA

40.3-277-1.57-1.09 and 2.2-14-0.09 = 17.1

As other pass-heavy quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Gardner Minshew have regressed back toward league average in recent weeks, Sam Howell has thrown at least 42 passes in six consecutive games. I am projecting Howell for 40.3 attempts in Week 13, 2.4 more than Patrick Mahomes in second place. Keep rolling Howell out there.

10. Jordan Love, GB vs. KC

33.7-236-1.69-0.91 and 2.5-15-0.08 = 16.3

Jordan Love has 66 red zone pass attempts, tied for third most this season just ahead of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert with 64 apiece. His three straight 2-3 touchdown games could be the standard in the second half of the season. I would start him this week.

11. Russell Wilson, DEN at HST

29.5-203-1.59-0.44 and 3.6-18-0.11 = 16.1

Russell Wilson is tied for fifth with 20 passing touchdowns and ranks sixth with 61 red zone pass attempts. He may not throw for the volume of his some of his fantasy contemporaries like Sam Howell, but you can trust Wilson in fantasy — if not quite to the same extent you did prior to 2022.

12. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. CIN

34.3-255-1.20-0.69 and 2.9-14-0.13 = 15.8

Trevor Lawrence showed signs of fantasy life with 4 touchdowns in Week 11 and 364 passing yards in Week 12. And Lawrence still has a 3.01 expected touchdown shortfall that is eighth biggest of current quarterback starters. With six passers on bye in Week 13, I would be on more positive passing touchdown regression and throw Lawrence into my lineups.

13. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. CAR

34.0-232-1.60-0.65 and 2.8-10-0.07 = 15.8

Baker Mayfield appears to have avoided a major ankle injury. And if he can play in Week 13, I expect him to enjoy a hearty revenge game against his disaster of a former Panthers team. Mayfield ranks seventh at his position with 59 red zone pass attempts. And while I have him just shy of the fantasy start standard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw two or three touchdowns.

14. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. CLV

34.7-253-1.50-0.90 and 1.3-5-0.06 = 15.1

You can hardly swing the opponent pendulum farther than from the 32nd-ranked Cardinals pass defense to the second-ranked Browns pass defense. But I don’t attribute all of Matthew Stafford’s four-touchdown outburst to that sieve of a former unit. The veteran quarterback has 50 red zone pass attempts and would almost certainly be in the top 10 at his position if he hadn’t missed a week with a thumb injury. And even in a difficult matchup in Week 13, Stafford is a decent bet to enjoy more positive touchdown regression off his 2.87 expected touchdown shortfall that is top 10 at his position. I would start Stafford in deeper and two-quarterback leagues.

15. Jared Goff, DET at NO

35.5-269-1.21-0.68 and 1.6-1-0.09 = 14.9

Jared Goff has averaged 5.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split among current starters. I would fade him on the road in New Orleans this week.

16. Geno Smith, SEA at DAL: 33.5-240-1.34-0.74 and 2.4-7-0.04 = 14.5
17. Derek Carr, NO vs. DET: 36.7-250-1.29-0.59 and 1.4-3-0.02 = 14.4
18. Gardner Minshew, IND at TEN: 35.4-235-1.10-0.85 and 1.9-5-0.15 = 13.5

Running Backs

18. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at DAL: 14.5-65-0.38 and 3.4-2.8-16-0.07 = 12.2
19. AJ Dillon, GB vs. KC: 15.1-53-0.47 and 3.4-2.6-23-0.07 = 12.1
20. De’Von Achane, MIA at WAS: 8.7-71-0.34 and 2.3-1.8-14-0.09 = 12.0
21. David Montgomery, DET at NO: 14.1-67-0.65 and 1.2-0.9-8-0.02 = 12.0
22. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. ARZ: 10.6-59-0.22 and 3.9-3.2-22-0.06 = 11.4
23. Javonte Williams, DEN at HST: 14.9-58-0.25 and 4.1-3.1-18-0.13 = 11.4
24. James Conner, ARZ at PIT: 12.3-59-0.37 and 3.2-2.5-15-0.08 = 11.3
25. Jerome Ford, CLV at LA: 13.9-60-0.32 and 3.4-2.3-14-0.08 = 11.0
26. Brian Robinson, WAS vs. MIA: 12.8-51-0.35 and 2.5-2.0-20-0.08 = 10.7

27. Devin Singletary, HST vs. DEN

12.2-52-0.35 and 2.7-2.1-14-0.06 = 10.1

Devin Singletary saw an unfriendly split of 6 carries versus 5 for teammate Dameon Pierce in the latter’s return from an ankle injury in Week 12. But Singletary outsnapped Pierce 82% to 18%. And despite a smaller build, Singletary outcarried Pierce 4-2 in the red zone and 2-0 inside the 5-yard line and suffered a 1.47 expected touchdown shortfall that was second highest at his position last week. He may not be the definitive fantasy RB2 he was when Pierce was out in early November. But Singletary remains a clear fantasy starter.

28. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at TB

11.4-45-0.29 and 3.5-3.0-19-0.06 = 9.9

Miles Sanders has played his best football since he lost his starting job last month. But even as he’s built back to 11 and 15 carries the last two weeks, Sanders has suffered a sizable 32% versus 60% snap share disadvantage to his teammate Chuba Hubbard since Week 8. The Panthers don’t always produce a ton of carry opportunities with their tendency to fall behind their opponents. But even their modest 25.6 projected attempts in Week 13 nets Hubbard 11.4 projected carries and flex value.

29. Najee Harris, PIT vs. ARZ

12.5-52-0.30 and 2.2-1.6-10-0.06 = 9.2

Najee Harris is unkillable. Two weeks ago, his teammate Jaylen Warren told reporters that he had been told he would be the No. 1 Steelers back beginning that week. And last week, new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner told reporters he planned to use Warren more than his predecessor Matt Canada. And yet Harris played his typical 57% and 54% of snaps the last two weeks and has played an extremely consistent 49% to 58% snap share every week and never trailed Warren in snaps in any game this season. Feel free to flex Harris again in Week 13.

30. Kareem Hunt, CLV at LA

11.0-38-0.45 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.04 = 8.1

Kareem Hunt has seen his teammate Jerome Ford reassert his RB1 role after a mid-season ankle injury with 64%-plus snap shares in three of the last four weeks. But Hunt has still out-carried Ford 18 to 7 in the red zone and 8 to 2 inside the 5-yard line since Week 6. He may be a boom-or-bust touchdown bet. But Hunt is still a back-end flex starter with six teams on bye in Week 13.

31. Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. MIA

4.3-17-0.12 and 3.8-3.2-26-0.13 = 7.4

Antonio Gibson returned from a toe injury and Week 11 absence to play his typical snap share in Week 12. But unfortunately for the versatile veteran, that typical share was 46%, dramatically down from his early-career standard before Brian Robinson joined the team and asserted a lead early-down role. You can start Gibson in a bye-week pinch. He may see extra receiving work if the Commanders fall behind the explosive Dolphins. But I have Gibson below my flex benchmark in Week 13, and you may can find a better option.

32. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. LAC

8.4-33-0.29 and 2.2-1.7-10-0.04 = 7.1

After some extra early-season run, Ezekiel Elliott has settled into a consistent 32-42% snap share and clear second-back status behind his teammate Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots had two fantasy-relevant backs in 2021 with a better offense. But Mac Jones has not created enough red zone opportunities to make Elliott relevant in 2023, and I wouldn’t count on new starter Bailey Zappe moving that needle. Leave Elliott on your fantasy benches.

33. Miles Sanders, CAR at TB: 10.1-38-0.26 and 1.7-1.1-7-0.02 = 6.8
34. Samaje Perine, DEN at HST: 2.8-12-0.08 and 3.4-2.9-27-0.09 = 6.4
35. Royce Freeman, LA vs. CLV: 10.0-43-0.30 and 0.3-0.2-1-0.01 = 6.4
36. Dameon Pierce, HST vs. DEN: 9.6-31-0.30 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.02 = 6.2
37. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at NYJ: 8.8-31-0.25 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.03 = 6.1
38. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. IND: 3.9-19-0.09 and 3.8-2.8-18-0.08 = 6.1
39. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. SEA: 6.1-25-0.18 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.03 = 4.7
40. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. SF: 4.3-17-0.16 and 1.9-1.5-10-0.04 = 4.6
41. Jamaal Williams, NO vs. DET: 4.8-18-0.20 and 1.5-1.2-7-0.03 = 4.5
42. Michael Carter, ARZ at PIT: 3.6-14-0.10 and 2.3-1.8-11-0.04 = 4.3
43. Joshua Kelley, LAC at NE: 5.4-22-0.15 and 0.9-0.6-4-0.02 = 3.9
44. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC at GB: 3.1-13-0.10 and 1.7-1.3-10-0.06 = 3.8

Wide Receivers

21. Drake London, ATL at NYJ: 7.4-4.9-62-0.33 = 10.6
22. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. MIA: 8.2-5.1-61-0.28 = 10.3
23. Deebo Samuel, SF at PHI: 5.5-3.7-50-0.21 = 10.3
24. Christian Kirk, JAX vs. CIN: 6.9-4.6-61-0.29 = 10.2
25. Courtland Sutton, DEN at HST: 6.4-4.5-54-0.44 = 10.2
26. Josh Downs, IND at TEN: 7.7-5.1-59-0.29 = 10.2
27. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. IND: 7.7-4.2-61-0.33 = 10.2
28. Rashee Rice, KC at GB: 5.8-4.4-54-0.37 = 9.9
29. Tyler Lockett, SEA at DAL: 6.9-4.7-53-0.36 = 9.8
30. Christian Watson, GB vs. KC: 6.7-3.5-52-0.39 = 9.5
31. Amari Cooper, CLV at LA: 6.9-3.8-59-0.29 = 9.5
32. Jayden Reed, GB vs. KC: 5.9-3.6-48-0.32 = 9.3
33. Chris Godwin, TB vs. CAR: 7.2-4.7-52-0.27 = 9.2
34. Marquise Brown, ARZ at PIT: 8.5-4.4-50-0.32 = 9.2

35. Demario Douglas, NE vs. LAC

7.1-4.6-54-0.21 = 9.1

Demario Douglas has trended up from an 8% snap share in Week 2 to 24%, 33%, 62%, 77%, 83% and 73% snap shares in his last six healthy games. Unfortunately, Week 12 wasn’t one of those healthy weeks. Douglas left that game early with a head injury and is in concussion protocol. If he clears, then I would start him even with the quarterback uncertainty. But follow the injury news before you lock in your lineups.

36. Noah Brown, HST vs. DEN

5.3-3.6-58-0.22 = 9.0

Speaking of injury news, Noah Brown returned to practice Wednesday and is trending toward playing in Week 13. We haven’t seen the Texans with their full complement of skill players pretty much all season. But my educated guess is Brown will see a 15.5% target share that ties him for 54th at his position. And as modest as that is, it still makes Brown a fantasy starter with his explosive ability and his quarterback C.J. Stroud’s prolific passing.

37. Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. ARZ

7.8-4.4-51-0.27 = 9.0

Diontae Johnson made news for his lack of effort — or maybe lack of focus on the field and not the referees — after a teammate fumble in Week 12. And I suppose there is some risk that he sees fewer snaps in Week 13 because of it. But Johnson apologized in front of the team, and head coach Mike Tomlin by his press conference statement seemed satisfied. I choose to put my trust in Johnson’s 29% target share since Week 8 that ties him for seventh at his position with A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf. And I would start Johnson in fantasy this week.

38. Curtis Samuel, WAS vs. MIA

5.9-4.4-43-0.26 = 8.6

Curtis Samuel’s Week 9 absence for a toe injury and Week 11 ejection for fighting shook my confidence. But Samuel recaptured that with 12 targets and 9 receptions in Week 12. Even with his recent absences, Samuel has bested his more heralded teammate Jahan Dotson with 47 versus 42 catches this season. And Samuel adds an occasional second dimension as a runner.

39. George Pickens, PIT vs. ARZ

6.0-3.3-53-0.22 = 8.3

Like Jaylen Warren, George Pickens was a presumed Eddie Faulkner beneficiary who wasn’t. Pickens saw the same 5 targets in Week 12 than he had averaged in the previous four weeks after Diontae Johnson returned. Meanwhile, Pickens has slipped from an average of 89 yards in four games without Johnson to 44 yards in seven games with Johnson healthy this season. The six bye teams keep him in the flex range. But I’m hardly enthused to start Pickens this week.

40. Tee Higgins, CIN at JAX

6.1-3.5-46-0.29 = 8.1

I could hardly feel less confident in my No. 40 ranking for Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. But he has a reported chance to return from his hamstring injury this week. And his new quarterback Jake Browning likely played better than you realized with 8.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 12. With more volume in Jacksonville, Browning could reasonably support a pair of fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Just be sure to have a Plan B like Tyler Boyd or Zay Jones if you want to consider Higgins for Monday night.

41. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at HST

5.4-3.7-47-0.22 = 7.9

Jerry Jeudy has the 20% target share of a high-end flex receiver. But his just one touchdown this season is more than poor luck. Jeudy trails his teammate Courtland Sutton in red zone targets 15-6 and in end zone targets 12-4. And he only clears the flex start benchmark because six teams are on bye in Week 13.

42. Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. MIA

5.9-3.6-40-0.32 = 7.7

I may prefer his teammate Curtis Samuel. But Jahan Dotson sneaks into fantasy flex territory with six teams on bye in Week 13. His empty box score in Week 10 is difficult to overlook. But since Week 8, Dotson also has three touchdowns and four end zone targets, the latter of which is tied for 13th among wide receivers. He is my final flex start for Week 13.

43. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. KC

5.7-3.4-37-0.34 = 7.4

Romeo Doubs is one of three Packers wide receivers with 10 or more red zone targets this season. And you could do worse in a week with six byes than start Doubs and hope for a touchdown. But since his sophomore teammate Christian Watson returned to his typical full snap share in Week 5, Doubs has slipped from a 26% target share to 16% that ties him for just 49th at his position. You may have better fantasy options in Week 13.

44. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. SEA

4.6-3.1-40-0.24 = 7.2

Brandin Cooks has ridden the recent Dak Prescott wave to 75.6 fantasy points since Week 6, 15th among wide receivers. But in that time, Cooks has a still modest 13% target share that tied for 62nd among wide receivers. And he has a 2.45 expected touchdown surplus that is fifth highest. I love Cooks as a piece of Prescott passing stacks in DFS. But I think he’s a bench in traditional fantasy this week.

45. Michael Wilson, ARZ at PIT

4.5-3.1-44-0.20 = 7.1

I don’t know what to make of the shoulder injury that cost Michael Wilson Weeks 9, 11 and 12. But when the Cardinals rookie last played in Week 10, he played his typical 89% of snaps and saw a 19% target share that tied him for 32nd at his position. Wilson should be a beneficiary of Kyler Murray when he can finally join him on the field. And assuming that return is in Week 13, Wilson may be closer to flex status than you expect.

46. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at DAL: 5.2-3.5-38-0.22 = 6.9
47. Elijah Moore, CLV at LA: 5.7-3.4-35-0.19 = 6.4
48. DeVante Parker, NE vs. LAC: 4.3-2.6-34-0.16 = 5.7
49. DJ Chark, CAR at TB: 4.3-2.3-32-0.19 = 5.5
50. Jonathan Mingo, CAR at TB: 5.7-2.9-31-0.15 = 5.5
51. Zay Jones, JAX vs. CIN: 4.2-2.6-28-0.22 = 5.4
52. Trey Palmer, TB vs. CAR: 4.5-2.7-28-0.18 = 5.3
53. Tyler Boyd, CIN at JAX: 4.0-2.8-28-0.16 = 5.2
54. Rondale Moore, ARZ at PIT: 3.5-2.3-22-0.10 = 5.2
55. Justin Watson, KC at GB: 4.0-2.1-31-0.16 = 5.1

Tight Ends

6. Evan Engram, JAX vs. CIN: 7.2-5.6-46-0.16 = 8.4
7. David Njoku, CLV at LA: 6.6-4.3-42-0.29 = 8.1
8. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. SEA: 5.3-3.7-38-0.34 = 7.7
9. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. DEN: 5.3-3.5-39-0.34 = 7.6

10. Logan Thomas, WAS vs. MIA

5.1-3.7-35-0.27 = 6.9

Logan Thomas may look like a run-of-the-mill TE2 with his 14% target share that ties him for just 18th at the position. But with the most prolific pass attempter in football in Sam Howell, Thomas ranks ninth at the position with 62 targets this season. And with six teams on bye this week, the Thomas start is an easy decision.

11. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. SF

4.9-3.6-40-0.19 = 6.9

I had all but written Dallas Goedert off as an imminent injured reserve candidate. But apparently the veteran tight end is pushing to play in Week 13. And even with a bit of a hedge in a 16.5% projected target share that is a bit below his typical standard and a difficult matchup in the 49ers, Goedert looks like a fantasy starter with a handful of typical TE1s on bye this week.

12. Kyle Pitts, ATL at NYJ

5.4-3.4-41-0.19 = 6.9

I don’t know if you heard, but apparently Kyle Pitt is a “big part of the offense.” I know you’ll be as excited as me to start him in Week 13.

13. Cade Otton, TB vs. CAR

4.4-3.3-31-0.24 = 6.2

Cade Otton has responded to his two-touchdown outburst in Week 9 with just 10 catches, 104 yards and zero touchdowns the last three weeks combined. That makes him a Week 13 bench for me, and it offers an important lesson for Tyler Higbee this week.

14. Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. ARZ

4.4-3.1-32-0.23 = 6.1

Pat Freiermuth looked like the major beneficiary of new Steelers OC Eddie Faulkner with 11 targets and 120 yards Sunday. But the third-year tight end had just 14 targets and 60 yards in his five previous this season. Forgive me if I want to see a bit more. I am projecting Freiermuth for a 15.0% target share this week that ties him for 13th at his position. And I lean toward benching him in fantasy.

15. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. ATL

4.2-3.3-34-0.14 = 5.9

Tyler Conklin made a sneaky push for TE1 consideration with a 14% target share and a 1.46 expected touchdown shortfall in the first 12 weeks, tied for 17th and second highest at his position. But with Tim Boyle at quarterback, I’ll pass. After his 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions the last two weeks, Boyle is up to a 2-16 touchdown-interception ratio at UConn and in the NFL combined.

16. Hunter Henry, NE vs. LAC

4.2-2.8-30-0.21 = 5.6

I’m not overly concerned with Hunter Henry’s box score shutout in Week 12. Jahan Dotson had the same a few weeks ago and returned immediately to his typical fantasy standard. But I am concerned about the Patriots’ dismal passing offense, and I’m not convinced that Bailey Zappe can help. Bench Henry in Week 13.

17. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. CLV

4.4-2.8-28-0.18 = 5.2

Tyler Higbee may have scored twice Sunday, but those are his only touchdowns on the season, and Higbee ranks a modest 24th among tight ends with five red zone targets this season. Don’t read too much into a one-week outburst.

18. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. IND: 4.6-3.0-27-0.15 = 5.1
19. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. DET: 4.0-2.5-25-0.21 = 5.1
20. Jonnu Smith, ATL at NYJ: 3.1-2.4-28-0.15 = 4.9
21. Gerald Everett, LAC at NE: 3.1-2.3-22-0.20 = 4.6
22. Tanner Hudson, CIN at JAX: 3.1-2.4-22-0.11 = 4.1
23. Noah Gray, KC at GB: 2.7-2.0-22-0.11 = 3.9
24. Durham Smythe, MIA at WAS: 2.8-2.0-20-0.13 = 3.8
25. Donald Parham, LAC at NE: 2.5-1.7-17-0.19 = 3.7
26. Mike Gesicki, NE vs. LAC: 2.8-1.8-18-0.14 = 3.5
27. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. KC: 2.7-1.8-17-0.13 = 3.4