Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With so many star fantasy football players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever.
Each week our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 4
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Time to Drop Curtis Samuel If You Haven’t
Curtis Samuel started his tenure with the Bills dealing with a turf toe injury. Considering Samuel was usually drafted shortly after first-round pick Keon Coleman in season-long drafts, it’s understandable that he’s still rostered in many leagues. If you happen to be one of them, it’s time to let him go. We’ve reached the point where he’s seeing less snaps than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which means he’s the WR5 on the Bills roster.
Miami Dolphins: We’re Going to See More Jaylen Wright
The Dolphins are a shell of themselves without Tua Tagovailoa, and with Tua’s return likely not happening anytime soon, their 2024 season might be one to write off. If that happens, we must expect De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert (when he returns) to see far less usage than expected. In Monday’s loss to the Titans, Achane unsurprisingly saw 73% of the snaps (44 snaps); however, with Mostert out of the lineup, we saw very little Jeff Wilson Jr., who saw a season-low 3% of the snaps (2 snaps). On the other hand, Wright saw a season-high 47% of the snaps (28 snaps) and 9 touches.
New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk’s Time Has Come
Rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk led Patriots WRs in snaps for the first time this season, and he also ended up leading the team in targets with 7. The Patriots are in a rough situation where they just have not been very competitive the last couple weeks, but with two upcoming home games, it’s possible for them to turn their season around.
New York Jets: Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard Run the Show at WR
Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard have each seen at least 82% of the snaps in each of the first four games of the season. While Mike Williams’ snaps have increased after being limited Week 1, it’s clear he’s not going to be seeing the field as much as Lazard any time soon.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: If You Have Mark Andrews, Time to Pivot
For the second straight week, Isaiah Likely was on the field for more snaps than Mark Andrews Likely saw 54% of the snaps (31) while Andrews saw 46% (26). If you drafted Andrews in your season-long leagues, while it might be a little late, you have to be working the waiver wire to find an alternative immediately.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown Shows Some Signs of Life
While Zack Moss continues to see the majority of the snaps out of the backfield, we saw more of Chase Brown than we have in any other game this season. He saw 40% of the snaps (27 snaps) while Moss saw 60% of the snaps (40 snaps). Head coach Zac Taylor definitely wanted to get his running backs the ball against the Panthers — Moss and Brown got a combined 36 touches. Brown also saw more red zone (3 touches) and goal line (2 touches) work than Moss — and found the end zone twice.
Cleveland Browns: Jerry Jeudy Might End Up the Browns WR1
Amari Cooper has somehow led the NFL in drops this season, with 6 in just four games. No one else in the league has more than 3. While both Cooper and Jerry Jeudy continue to see a ton of snaps from the WR position, Jeudy is gaining more and more trust from Deshaun Watson, and has actually caught more passes than Cooper in three of the first four games. Sunday against the Raiders, Jeudy actually saw a team-leading 25.7% target share.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pat Freiermuth Is Justin Fields’ No. 2 Option
Justin Fields just hasn’t been able to consistently get his secondary receivers involved throughout his career. In Chicago, it was the DJ Moore and Cole Kmet show. Through the first four weeks of the season, it looks like George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth are just picking up where Moore and Kmet left off. Freiermuth has just 3 catches less than Pickens this season and has consistently been the No. 2 target in each of the first four games. Sunday against the Colts, he had his best game yet, with 5 catches on 7 targets and a touchdown.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Nico Collins Continues to See Elite Usage
In a very crowded WR room, Nico Collins continues to outshine everyone. Collins saw 35.7% of the targets from C.J. Stroud and brought home a whopping 12 catches on those 15 targets. It should be noted that Robert Woods saw 72% of the snaps with Tank Dell inactive, but Woods only finished with 1 catch on 3 targets.
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce Sees More Snaps But Josh Downs Gets More Targets
Even though Alec Pierce ended his day with 1 catch on 2 targets, he actually saw more snaps than Josh Downs (54-40). Unfortunately for Pierce, the Colts are going to use Downs from the slot the vast majority of the time, and it’s clear that both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco like using their slot receivers. Being 6-foot-4 and 6-6, respectively, definitely helps both of the Colts QBs see the middle of the field, and that’s going to benefit Downs much more than Pierce.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jags Have No Clue What They’re Doing with Their RBs
While it’s understandable for Tank Bigsby to get his fair share of the snaps behind Travis Etienne Jr., it’s pretty disgusting to see that D’Ernest Johnson continues to see the field with both Etienne and Bigsby healthy. While Etienne saw 52% of the snaps (30) against the Texans, Bigsby and Johnson still saw 29% (17) and 21% (12) of the snaps out of the backfield.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins Continues to Be Limited
In a big Monday matchup against the Dolphins leading up to the team’s bye week, I would have assumed DeAndre Hopkins would see a ton of action. Unfortunately, he ended his night with his second-lowest snap count of the season at just 32% (21 snaps). With Tennessee’s instability at quarterback, it’s tough to see the remainder of Nuk’s 2024 season as anything but grim.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Crowded Broncos RB Room Down to 2
The Broncos entered the 2024 season with a bit of a three-headed monster at RB, with Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime all making their case for touches in Sean Payton’s revamped offense. Immediately, Estime went on IR, and last week, Tyler Badie went down with a serious back injury. It’s officially the Williams and McLaughlin show behind Bo Nix, and it clearly showed Williams as the RB1 based on usage alone. Williams saw 57% of the snaps (35) compared to McLaughin’s 34% (21).
Kansas City Chiefs: Carson Steele Might Be Cooked
Carson Steele saw just one snap after fumbling early in Kansas City’s win against the Chargers, while Kareem Hunt came out of nowhere to see 45% of the snaps (28), leading all Chiefs running backs. While Andy Reid insists that he still has confidence in Steele, it’s a bit troublesome given Reid’s familiarity with Hunt and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s return looming.
Las Vegas Raiders: Not Many Options Left with Davante Adams Out
With Davante Adams out, we knew we’d be seeing a lot of Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, and we definitely did. Meyers saw 97% of the snaps (57) while Tucker saw 85% (50). The third receiver ended up being DJ Turner, who saw 42% (25 snaps) but did not see a reception. Adams being out led to a lot more attention being given to TE Brock Bowers, who ended with just 2 catches on 3 targets for 19 yards. We’ll have to see what happens in the coming weeks, but Meyers and Bowers will likely see a lot of looks from Gardner Minshew given how little depth there is on the roster.
Los Angeles Chargers: Definitely an Effort to Get J.K. Dobbins the Ball
While the first two weeks of the season saw a relatively even split between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, that split has morphed into Dobbins getting two-thirds of the snaps Week 3 and nearly three-quarters in Week 4. Dobbins wasn’t able to do much with his 17 touches, but it’s going to get better for Dobbins considering he’ll be able to see much less of the Chiefs and their excellent defense against the run (second in DVOA).
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Rico Dowdle Has Emerged as the RB1
After back-to-back weeks with double the snaps of Ezekiel Elliott, we can safely say that Rico Dowdle is the preferred back in Dallas. It’ll be interesting to see if Elliott will continue to get the goal line carries, because we did not see the Cowboys take any goal line snaps on Week 4.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. Locked in as the RB2
There was a chance Eric Gray had stepped up to the RB2 role after an outstanding preseason, but we can see now that Tyrone Tracy Jr. has locked into the role. He is consistently getting 20-30% of the snaps as Devin Singletary’s backup, and there’s clearly an effort to get him touches every game.
Philadelphia Eagles: Parris Campbell Should Be Rostered over Jahan Dotson
Parris Campbell stepped into a starting role with DeVonta Smith ruled out and was able to outshine Jahan Dotson. Campbell saw 84% of the snaps (48, just one fewer than Dotson) but came out with 4 receptions for 17 yards and a touchdown. While Dotson has had over 100 more snaps than Campbell, somehow, Campbell has 1 more catch than Dotson does this season.
Washington Commanders: Jeremy McNichols a Viable Flex While Austin Ekeler Is Out
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are the NFL’s hottest offense. They were able to dominate the Cardinals and did so with Austin Ekeler out of the lineup. With Ekeler out, Jeremy McNichols stepped into the RB2 role and saw 38% of the snaps out of the backfield (27) and got 9 touches, including 2 touchdowns. While it’s likely Ekeler will be coming back sooner rather than later, we now know that McNichols has a viable role if Ekeler or Brian Robinson Jr. is ever out of the lineup.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Khalil Herbert Nowhere to Be Found
D’Andre Swift had his best game as a Bear, and Roschon Johnson was able to get into the end zone with an important goal line carry. With Swift and Johnson’s roles seemingly secure, the odd man out is Khalil Herbert, who did not get any snaps on offense in the victory against the Rams.
Detroit Lions: Sam LaPorta Will Be Fine
After a quiet first three weeks of the season, Sam LaPorta had his most impactful game of the season Monday against the Seahawks, catching 4 of Jared Goff’s 18 perfect passes for 53 yards. Health has been a concern when it comes to LaPorta throughout training camp as well as a couple scares earlier this season, but after seeing 89% of the snaps (47), and contributing to a monstrous performance by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, it appears the best has yet to come for the second-year TE.
Green Bay Packers: WR Room Comes Alive with Jordan Love Back
While Week 4 saw Christian Watson go down with an unfortunate injury that will likely sideline him for at least a few weeks, it brought new life to the Packers WR room thanks to the return of Jordan Love. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks each saw at least 76% of the snaps and at least 8 targets, with Wicks having the most notable performance with his 5 catches on 13 targets and 2 touchdowns.
Minnesota Vikings: Jalen Nailor Unplayable with Jordan Addison Back
With Jordan Addison back in the lineup, Jalen Nailor’s snaps decreased to a paltry 21% (14), and he even saw less time on the field than Brandon Powell. Even though Nailor is tied for the league lead in touchdowns, his decreased usage with Jordan Addison back makes him a prime drop candidate if you’re in need of a roster spot leading up to the first bye week of the season.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts’ Usage Decreases for the Fourth Straight Week
Everyone was able to see that Kyle Pitts walked away from Week 4 with fewer receptions than Lions QB Jared Goff, but I actually think it’s even more notable that he continued to see fewer snaps for the fourth week in a row. Even Charlie Woerner’s snap counts in the TE2 position have been more stable, and that’s absolutely a red flag for any Kyle Pitts enjoyers.
Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette Needs to Be Rostered
Andy Dalton has completely revived the Panthers offense, and with Adam Thielen on IR, Xavier Legette had his most impactful game of the season, seeing a team-leading 87% of the snaps (61) and coming home with 6 receptions on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Legette is only rostered in 25% of Yahoo leagues, so jump on him if he’s still available.
New Orleans Saints: Juwan Johnson Outsnaps Foster Moreau for the First Time This Season
Juwan Johnson has had a handful of big games since the arrival of Derek Carr, but he hadn’t gotten much of an opportunity so far this season. Still, Johnson’s big game will eventually come, and it might be sooner rather than later considering Johnson saw the majority of the snaps from the TE position with a 68% snap share (50) compared to Foster Moreau’s 57% (42).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sterling Shepard the WR3 with Jalen McMillan Out
Trey Palmer may have come home with a touchdown catch, but due to concussion, he saw only 14% of the snaps (11 snaps) in Tampa Bay’s big win against the Eagles. On the other hand, Sterling Shepard saw 65% of the snaps (50 snaps), and while he didn’t catch a touchdown, he did end his day with a solid 3 catches on 5 targets for 51 yards, and certainly has some upside as he gets more and more comfortable with Baker Mayfield.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Elijah Higgins Could Be a Viable Bye Week Replacement
With Trey McBride still in concussion protocol, and the Week 5 bye week taking away two of the top 10 tight ends in the league, I feel Elijah Higgins should be considered as a bye week replacement. He saw 68% of the snaps (40) with McBride out of the lineup, and most notably, ran routes on 25 of the 26 routes.
Los Angeles Rams: Jordan Whittington Might Be the Safest Rams WR
The Rams WR room hasn’t had much stability since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both went down with injuries. Demarcus Robinson came into the season as the WR3 behind Nacua and Kupp but hasn’t made much of an impact with both Pro Bowlers out. Tyler Johnson hasn’t done much with his opportunities either. At this point, it’s down to Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington, who have received the most trust from QB Matthew Stafford, and Whittington notably saw 97% of the snaps (56) and ran all 32 routes.
San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings Won’t Dominate with Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle Back
Jauan Jennings only saw 57% of the snaps (36) with Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle back. Jennings still saw a respectable 6 targets and came home with 3 receptions for 88 yards, but the decreased snap count and a boatload of talented players surrounding him, we can’t expect Jennings to have another Week 3-like performance.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet Not Playable in Non-PPR with Kenneth Walker III Healthy
While Zach Charbonnet still saw 42% of the snaps (38) out of the backfield, he only got 2 carries and zero red zone touches. Kenneth Walker III definitely made a huge mark with 3 touchdowns in the Seahawks’ loss to the Lions, but more importantly, showed immense him impact immediately after his return from a 2-week hiatus due to an oblique injury. We can definitely expect Walker’s touches to slowly increase as he returns to full strength.
