The Worst Pick in Each First-Round NFL Draft Slot, 2015-2024

The saying in fantasy football says that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it there. In the real NFL Draft, it’s not quite so dramatic — no single pick outside of maybe the top handful can really make that big a difference. But man, you want them to.

No team is without a miss. There are bad picks dotting every NFL franchise’s history, because nobody is perfect. But some teams miss more often than others, and some bad picks resonate more than others.

Monday, I looked at the best picks at every NFL Draft slot from the last 10 years. Today, we go the other way — the worst pick at every first-round draft slot since 2015. Guys who came in with plenty of hype, but for one reason or another, things didn’t work out.

(As always, this is about the actual pick made, not necessarily the resources used to acquire it. The Panthers get no penalty for having traded massive resources for Bryce Young, for example. But there is consideration for who a team might have gotten instead of the player they took, especially if they play the same position.)

(Oh, and the teams are all listed under their current moniker. I’m not bothering with “OAK” and “SDC” and “STL.”)

Worst First-Round Pick NFL Draft Slot, 2015-2024

First Overall

Worst Pick: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022

Walker hasn’t been bad. But he hasn’t been much. He’s just been a fine player. The problem is that you need more than a fine player out of first overall, especially given the Lions got a superstar in Aidan Hutchinson one pick later.

Second-Worst Pick: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2015

This one basically comes down to the oldest first overall pick and the two newest ones. But Bryce Young started to rebuild his value late last year in a big way, both salvaging his pick (a bit, so far) and showing how quickly things can turn for Caleb Williams. So I’ll take Winston, who looked pretty good early on but quickly showed he was too wild to be trusted.

Second Overall

Worst Pick: Zach Wilson, New York Jets, 2021

Wilson played three years with the Jets, during which he never had a 3-TD game, had more interceptions (25) than touchdowns (23) and compiled a 73.2 career passer rating. He was 13-21 as a starter and couldn’t even find playing time in Denver last year.

Second-Worst Pick: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears, 2017

In my head, the battle between Trubisky and Wilson for worst second overall pick was going to be a close one, but it really wasn’t. Even looking just at his first three years (to match Wilson’s three as a starter), Trubisky smokes Wilson, with more than double the touchdown passes (48-23) and a higher passer rating (85.8 to 73.2). It’s a low bar to beat Wilson, but he clears it with ease. And of course, he was the inaugural Nickelodeon Valuable Player in the 2021 playoffs. That’s gotta count for something. (Right?)

Third Overall

Worst Pick: Jeff Okudah, Detroit Lions, 2020

Okudah seemed like something of a sure thing coming out of Ohio State, leading to the Lions making him the highest-drafted cornerback since Shawn Springs back in 1997 (also a Buckeye, which is a fun parallel). Instead, Okudah has dealt with a bunch of injuries in his career and not been very good when he’s played. He only played 25 of a possible 50 games as a Lion, and it hasn’t gotten much better since leaving Detroit.

Second-Worst Pick: Solomon Thomas, San Francisco 49ers, 2017

I was (obviously) tempted to say Sam Darnold here, but he had moments here and there in New York and Carolina and then broke out last year in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Thomas has gotten plenty of chances (49ers, then Raiders, then Jets, now Cowboys) and it’s never really become anything.

Fourth Overall

Worst Pick: Clelin Ferrell, Las Vegas Raiders, 2019

Ferrell was seen as a reach even at the time, generally projected to go near the end of the first round. So when he went early and then struggled (and has struggled ever since), it felt like a vindication for the draftniks, but it certainly hurt the Raiders.

Second-Worst Pick: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts, 2023

It might be Kyle Pitts, but he did have a season as the fantasy TE6 as a rookie. That’s better than any season Richardson has had so far, and while there’s still time for Richardson to repair things, it’s not a good thing that his team is like “Well, we like Daniel Jones to possibly beat him out.”

Fifth Overall

Worst Pick: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans, 2017

Davis took a few years to get it going in Tennessee, but he had his best season in 2020 with 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. He used that year to get a free agent contract with the Jets, where things fell right back apart, and he retired after two seasons. Davis flirted with a comeback last year, but it looks like the door is firmly closed.

Second-Worst Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants, 2022

The teams have generally actually done pretty well at fifth overall. Thibodeaux is hardly a bust through three seasons, but he’s not the home run Aidan Hutchinson was at the same position a few picks earlier. He’s a solid starter who isn’t much beyond that … yet, at least.

Sixth Overall

Worst Pick: Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 2019

Like Corey Davis, Jones had his best year heading into free agency. Unfortunately for the Giants, though, while the Titans let Davis walk, the Giants extended Jones and used the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley. Now, Barkley’s gone (and a Super Bowl champion), and Jones had 10 touchdowns in 16 games over two seasons (during which the Giants went 3-13) before getting cut.

Second-Worst Pick: Jamal Adams, New York Jets, 2017

Real talk, Adams was phenomenal early in his career, good enough that I might be dumb for picking him here. But the only other options were the 2022 and 2023 tackles, and both have been very good so far. Meanwhile, after Adams was a star to open his career, he got traded to Seattle and fell apart in more than one way, with his play dropping off and his attitude costing him gigs.

Seventh Overall

Worst Pick: Kevin White, Chicago Bears, 2015

White was with the Bears for four years and played a total of 14 games. He had 285 yards as a Bear, 0 as a 49ers and 112 as a Saint before his career ended after the 2022 season. He never played 10 games in a season. He never scored a touchdown. He’s one of the biggest busts on record.

Second-Worst Pick: Evan Neal, New York Giants, 2022

Google “Evan Neal” right now, and the news headlines including phrases like “Evan Neal likely nearing the end of his disappointing New York Giants’ career” and “revive Giants draft bust Evan Neal.” He’s started 27 games over three years but hasn’t warranted the seventh overall pick yet.

Eighth Overall

Worst Pick: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, 2020

Simmons kind of broke the idea of a positionless draftee in 2020. He was the kind of guy who some analysts liked as an undersized linebacker and others liked as an oversized safety, so the popular conclusion was that he could do both successfully. Instead, he’s done both, but not as well as anyone would like.

Second-Worst Pick: Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers, 2021

Horn’s been perfectly fine as a football player, to the point that the Panthers gave him a big-money extension last month. No shame. The only thing that makes him one of the “worst” picks at this range is that he’s not been on the field as much as you’d like — he’s only played 37 of a possibly 68 games in his career.

Ninth Overall

Worst Pick: C.J. Henderson, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2020

After the sixth, seventh and eighth picks gave us enough success that even finding a worst was hard, the ninth has made it much easier, to the point that I’m going to feel silly about a name not making this space. But Henderson ekes out the nod as worst, because he only made it 10 games as a Jaguar (eight as a rookie, two in his second year), before the team punted to get out of the Henderson business, dealing him to Carolina. He didn’t do much as a Panther, then bounced to the Texans and Steelers and is now a free agent without many people poking around.

Second-Worst Pick: John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals, 2017

So fast, man. Ross set a then-record with his 4.22-second 40 in the 2017 Combine. That bumped up to the third receiver off the board in 2017, after Corey Davis and Mike Williams. And then as a rookie, he had … 12 yards. All on a single rush. At the end of which, he fumbled. It was bad! Ross did have a nice couple games to kick off the 2019 season, but as it is, his career is either over or very close (he did play one game with the Eagles last year after missing 2022 and 2023, so … congrats on the Super Bowl, John), and he still doesn’t have 1,000 receiving yards yet.

10^th Overall

Worst Pick: Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals, 2018

Rosen at least flirted with the conversation of being first overall in 2018. Instead, he went 10^th, the first quarterback off the board. Among his fellow first-round QBs that year, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have won the last two MVPs, Baker Mayfield has made himself an upper-level QB in Tampa, Sam Darnold broke out in Minnesota, and Rosen … is back in college.

Second-Worst Pick: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings, 2024

If you want to take Eli Apple under the argument that McCarthy hasn’t played yet and could be a star right away, sure, I won’t argue. This could be a bad choice really fast. But then … McCarthy hasn’t played yet. He’s the only first-rounder from last year who didn’t see the field, and while there’s still optimism around him (enough that I absolutely wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted Apple here), there’s nothing to build on yet.

11^th Overall

Worst Pick: Mekhi Becton, New York Jets, 2020

Becton has gotten another shot, with the Eagles last year and now with the Chargers. But his Jets tenure was rough, with a spotty rookie year followed by one total game in 2021-2022. He came back to be a full-time starter in 2023, but he never delivered 11^th overall value.

Second-Worst Pick: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 2021

If this were picking by fantasy value, this might be different. But for real football, Fields struggled as a Bear, to the point that the Bears cut bait before his rookie deal was even up. He only went 10-28 as a Bear with an 82.3 passer rating. It just wasn’t good enough.

12^th Overall

Worst Pick: Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders, 2020

Ruggs only reached 452 yards and 2 touchdowns as a rookie in 13 games. And of course, that will go down as his career year, because his career ended a year later thanks to some devastating off-field news.

Second-Worst Pick: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans, 2017

Yes, I named Watson the third-best pick at 12^th overall, and he’s the second worst. Because for all the good he did as the Texans quarterback to start his career (and yes, he was great), the second half of his career has gone so poorly both on and off the field that it kind of robs the first half of the value. Yes, it’s cheating to have him listed in both categories. No, I don’t care.

13^th Overall

Worst Pick: Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers, 2023

Van Ness has played all 17 games both seasons in Green Bay, but he hasn’t played even 40% of the defensive snaps in either season. He’s a role player at a draft slot where mostly starters got taken.

Second-Worst Pick: Haason Reddick, Arizona Cardinals, 2017

The 13^th overall pick has been pretty successful in the last decade. It’s hard to even identify a “bad” pick. So it comes down to looking at how players fared for their original teams than just overall value. And that means the pick here is Reddick or Laremy Tunsil — Reddick lasted longer with the Cardinals than Tunsil did with the Dolphins, but then he was a backup for a lot of that time, and his stretch of success after leaving his initial team was shorter.

14^th Overall

Worst Pick: Karl Joseph, Las Vegas Raiders, 2016

The first step in identifying a “bad” (or at least a “not good”) first-round pick is figuring out which players didn’t get their fifth-year option, and why. And among the 14^th overall picks whose teams have had the chance to make the option decision so far, only Joseph and our next name didn’t get theirs picked up. Joseph only got two more seasons after leaving the Raiders, bouncing from the Browns to the Steelers before leaving the NFL.

Second-Worst Pick: Javon Kinlaw, San Francisco 49ers, 2020

Kinlaw is the other player here who didn’t get his option picked up. He had a very promising rookie season in 2020, but injuries sabotaged his 2021 and 2022. He landed with the Jets last year and stayed healthy, which earned him a three-year deal with the Commanders this offseason, but the 49ers probably regret the investment.

15^th Overall

Worst Pick: Dwayne Haskins, Washington Commanders, 2019

After a handful of picks lately where the was only one clear bust (or even zero), 15^th has a wealth of names for us to choose from. But Haskins is the worst pick, going 3-10 as a starter for Washington with a 12:14 TD:INT ratio before going to Pittsburgh. He died later, but even before that, the pick was never going to be a success.

Second-Worst Pick: Kenyon Green, Houston Texans, 2022

Picking between Green and Corey Coleman for this choice was like a reverse Sophie’s Choice. I’d like to sacrifice both. But Green is the pick, but missing an entire season to injury, being one of the worst linemen in the league when healthy and already getting dumped to Philadelphia as part of a pick swap.

16^th Overall

Worst Pick: Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Washington Commanders, 2023

This would probably have been the selection in this slot even without considering context clues, given Forbes was maybe the worst corner in the league during his 20 games played for Washington over two seasons. But add in the fact that he went one spot before Christian Gonzalez, an immediate star at the very same position, and it’s just a disaster.

Second-Worst Pick: Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders, 2022

Dotson looked like a find as a rookie after catching 7 touchdowns. But he did it on only 61 targets, a scoring rate that clearly indicated coming regression. And it hit him like a ton of bricks, because Dotson saw 22 more targets in his second year and had 5 fewer yards and 3 fewer touchdowns. The Commanders dumped him to the Eagles, where he did even less in 2024.

17^th Overall

Worst Pick: Alex Leatherwood, Las Vegas Raiders, 2021

The Raiders saw all they needed to out of Leatherwood in a single season. He started all 17 games for the team but was so bad both at tackle and guard that they straight-up waived him before his second season. The Bears took a shot, but he only played four games there and never saw playing time in stops with the Browns and Chargers, and his career appears over now.

Second-Worst Pick: Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings, 2024

It’s way too early to give up on Turner, especially since his rookie season wasn’t bad, it was just underwhelming. But a first-round linebacker playing 16 games but only reaching 26.4% of the defensive snaps is not a good way to start.

18^th Overall

Worst Pick: Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans, 2022

Burks had a relatively disappointing 444 yards and 1 touchdown as a rookie. And that looks like it might go down as his career year, because since then he has 255 scoreless yards in two seasons. Add in the insult-to-injury that he was the de facto replacement for A.J. Brown after the Titans traded the star away, and this is the clear choice.

Second-Worst Pick: Austin Jackson, Miami Dolphins, 2020

Jackson has been a starter along the Dolphins offensive line (when healthy) ever since he was picked, with two 16-game seasons and others interrupted by injury. That’s reasonable, but then the Dolphins have consistently ranked as one of the worst lines in the league that whole time, so it’s not like he’s holding up a big tent.

19^th Overall

Worst Pick: Damon Arnette, Las Vegas Raiders, 2020

Arnette only made it 13 games as a Raider after rookie-year injuries and some serious off-the-field issues in his second. He spent time on the practice squads in Miami and Kansas City before more legal issues ended his NFL time.

Second-Worst Pick: Cameron Erving, Cleveland Browns, 2015

Maybe you want Trevor Penning, but he’s at least made it to being a full-time starter in 2024. Erving bounced around the league for nine years, playing for five teams, starting for two. He was only a Brown for two seasons before the team dumped him for a late-round pick.

20^th Overall

Worst Pick: Kadarius Toney, New York Giants, 2021

Toney brought the excitement, first when he joined the team and then it was revitalized when he had a 10-189-0 on 13 targets in Week 5. And it was basically all downhill from there as far as Toney’s real contributions were concerned, from a disappointing end to his Giants tenure, to not doing much (in the regular season at least) with the Chiefs, to the out-and-out disaster of his turn with the Browns.

Second-Worst Pick: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2022

I flipped Pickett and Toney several times here. Might do it again before I publish it. Because while Toney was worse, Pickett might have hurt his team more. He only lasted two seasons with the Steelers, 25 games, and in that time he only had multiple touchdown passes once. He ended his Pittsburgh tenure with a 13:13 TD:INT ratio in 25 games and is on his third NFL roster now.

21^st Overall

Worst Pick: Billy Price, Cincinnati Bengals, 2018

Price never made it work in the NFL, between injuries and not being an NFL-caliber center. He made it three years with the Bengals but saw less playing time each year, and then he bounced around to the Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Saints and Cowboys before calling it quits.

Second-Worst Pick: Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers, 2023

Johnston was better in Year 2 than he was in Year 1, but then he almost had to be — his rookie year featured 431 yards and 2 touchdowns despite playing all 17 games. He did manage 8 touchdowns last year, so that’s good, but he also had 7 drops and was generally inefficient.

22^nd Overall

Worst Pick: Caleb Farley, Tennessee Titans, 2021

Farley was seen as a big risk entering the 2021 draft because of his injury history, and boy did that play out. He played only 12 games (starting two) in three years with the Titans, including missing all of 2023. He landed with Carolina last year and played only 13.9% of the defensive snaps, and no one has grabbed him in free agency.

Second-Worst Pick: Josh Doctson, Washington Commanders

Like Jahan Dotson, Doctson had a couple of seasons of 500-plus yards for Washington, but the difference is that his came in Years 2 and 3 instead of Years 1 and 2. Otherwise, their careers kind of run parallel, with Washington dumping both off after their second 500-yard season and then the receiver proceeding to do very little else.

23^rd Overall

Worst Pick: Kaiir Elam, Buffalo Bills, 2022

Elam had a huge opportunity in Buffalo last year after being primarily a backup in his first couple of seasons, and he did very little with it. It was to the point that the Bills, who still very clearly need secondary help, went ahead and traded Elam to the Cowboys this offseason in a late-round pick swap.

Second-Worst Pick: Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings, 2016

What a miserable WR draft the 2016 edition turned out to be, particularly in the first round. That first day of the draft featured Corey Coleman (1.15), William Fuller V (1.21), Josh Doctson (1.22) and Treadwell (1.23). Round 2 (Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd) was worlds better, and Tyreek Hill was a prize in the fifth round, but in the first round, that was four receivers who totaled just over 6,000 career yards (more than half going to Fuller), and Treadwell (who has 1 reception the last two years but is still on the Colts roster) is the only one still going.

24^th Overall

Worst Pick: Gareon Conley, Las Vegas Raiders, 2017

Conley dealt with injuries with the Raiders, only playing two games as a rookie and traded to Houston in the middle of his third year. He only lasted those three seasons in the NFL before heading to the UFL. He did spend a month with the Cowboys last offseason before officially retiring.

Second-Worst Pick: Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions, 2024

Once again, we have a draft slot where, generally speaking, teams did pretty well. It’s far too early to declare Arnold a bust (he even got scant DRoY voting support), but he only managed a 51.5 PFF grade as a rookie.

25^th Overall

Worst Pick: Jordan Morgan, Green Bay Packers, 2024

Like Terrion Arnold above, it’s too early to close the door on Morgan, but he didn’t even earn 200 offensive snaps as a rookie and had under a 60.0 PFF grade in that playing time.

Second-Worst Pick: Artie Burns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2016

Here’s another “Well, the team didn’t even pick up his fifth-year option” player, where Burns struggled both with injuries and playing time with the Steelers, including allowing a 148.1 passer rating when targets his last two years in Pittsburgh. He bounced to the Bears and Seahawks after that and is now on the Dolphins for 2025.

26^th Overall

Worst Pick: Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos, 2016

Lynch is the clearest evidence that no one knows what they’re doing, because the Cowboys reportedly desperately wanted Lynch in the draft, and when the Broncos took him, they had to settle for … Dak Prescott. Lynch only played five NFL games, starting four and going 1-3.

Second-Worst Pick: Mazi Smith, Dallas Cowboys, 2023

Smith has struggled badly through two seasons, struggling for playing time as a rookie and then becoming a starter and putting up a 34.8 PFF grade last year. Sports Illustrated had an article Monday calling Smith a “haunting” flop.

27^th Overall

Worst Pick: Johnathan Abram, Las Vegas Raiders, 2019

Abram was hurt for most of his rookie season, and then when he played in Years 2 and 3, he struggled more than he was good. He bounced around after leaving Vegas, most recently playing for the Saints last year before being released.

Second-Worst Pick: Darius Robinson, Arizona Cardinals, 2024

Robinson missed a big chunk of his rookie 2024 with a calf injury, ultimately playing only six games (with no starts) and playing under 200 snaps on the season.

28^th Overall

Worst Pick: Joshua Garnett, San Francisco 49ers, 2016

Garnett saw playing time in three NFL seasons, never consecutive. He was a starter for most of his rookie 2016 and then played a bit in 2018 and 2020, but not much. He never really got going.

Second-Worst Pick: Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints, 2021

Turner’s entering his fifth season and still hasn’t started a game, playing 15 combined games in his first three years before playing 16 last year. The Saints didn’t bring him back for 2025, so he’s on the Cowboys now.

29^th Overall

Worst Pick: Isaiah Wilson, Tennessee Titans, 2020

Even this late in the exercise, this is one of the most obvious picks of the exercise. Wilson played one game in the NFL, with attitude issues and off-field issues costing him a job in Tennessee and ultimately in the league.

Second-Worst Pick: Phillip Dorsett II, Indianapolis Colts, 2015

Dorsett and Robert Nkemdiche are the candidates here, but give me Dorsett as the worse pick, strictly because he was identified as a bust of a pick right from the start. The Colts got mocked almost immediately, and ultimately Dorsett’s biggest value for Indianapolis was as the trade chip that brought Jacoby Brissett to the team. He played eight seasons in the NFL and barely got to 2,000 yards.

30^th Overall

Worst Pick: DeAndre Baker, New York Giants, 2019

Baker only played one season with the Giants after the team traded three picks up to take him, allowing a 116.2 passer rating in coverage as a rookie before an arrest led to him landing on the commissioner’s exempt list and ultimately being released. He landed with the Chiefs for a couple of seasons but didn’t do much there either, and he’s been out of the NFL since 2021.

Second-Worst Pick: Noah Igbinoghene, Miami Dolphins, 2020

Igbinoghene was almost a punch line in his first couple of seasons, playing lightly and allowing a 129.4 (or higher) passer rating in coverage in both 2020 and 2021. He’s become more of a productive corner as a role player the last few years, but it never really worked out in Miami.

31^st Overall

Worst Pick: Jeff Gladney, Minnesota Vikings, 2020

Gladney’s story is amazingly sad. He played most of his rookie season in Minnesota, but then the team released him after he was indicted for domestic violence in August 2021. He was cleared, but it cost him his 2021 season. The Cardinals signed him in March 2022 as he tried to return, but Gladney died in a car wreck barely two months later.

Second-Worst Pick: Stephone Anthony, New Orleans Saints, 2015

Anthony was a full-time player in 2015 and made the PFWA All-Rookie team. But then the Saints moved him to strongside linebacker before his second season, where he had never played, and it didn’t go well. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited him that year, and he was shipped to Miami, where it didn’t work out either. He bounced around to a few other teams, but his career only lasted until 2020.

32^nd Overall

*No 32^nd pick in the first round because an earlier pick was forfeited.

Worst Pick: N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots, 2019

The first receiver drafted by the Patriots in the first round in 23 years, Harry did not work out at all. His career-best season featured 309 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2020, and he ended his career with 714 total yards. Even worse, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf all went in the second round of that draft.

Second-Worst Pick: Lewis Cine, Minnesota Vikings, 2022

Cine being a failed pick is almost entirely a function of injury. He played 10 games over two years with the Vikings and has played 11 career games in total. Maybe if he had been granted health things would have been different. (But hey, Super Bowl trophy with the Eagles.)