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NFL Player Props – Bet on Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford

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While some books continue to be cautious releasing lines for the 2021 NFL season, FOX Bet released every quarterback season passing prop, and there are plenty of values to be had. When lines come out early, there is no market to compare them to, but using our projections, historical data and a little common sense it is easy to spot values.

Here are a few of my favorites. 

Lamar Jackson betting props

Over 3,055.5 passing yards (FOX Bet)

There is disrespect, and there is whatever this line is for Lamar Jackson. In order for Jackson to throw for over 3,055.5 yards he needs to average 179.5 passing yards per game — a number he has gone over in 65% of his starts in the last two years. While yes, Jackson is a running quarterback, he has never missed a game due to injury in his career, missing one due to rest and one due to COVID-19. He is likely able to play the entire season and this number is far too low. FTN’s Projections agree, projecting him to throw for 3,376 yards. This is also the most talented group of receivers Jackson has ever thrown to after adding Rashod Bateman in the draft’s first round and Sammy Watkins in free agency, adding to Jackson’s weekly passing upside. He goes over this number far more often than he goes under it, and when other books drop lines I think we will see lines closer to 3,200, which gives us excellent value or a middle opportunity. 

Matthew Stafford betting props

Over 4,350.5 passing yards (FOX Bet)