MagicSportsGuide Week 6 DFS breakdown

Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 6, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend DFS slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 6.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team

KC -6.5 @ WAS, O/U 55.5
Implied team totals: KC 31, WAS 24.5

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Kansas City is last in points allowed at 32.6 per game on over 7 yards per play (also last). It is supported by the 31st pass and 32nd rush DVOA.
• KC is 4-1 to the OVER this season by an average of +8.5 points above the number (second). The one game that was “under” ended 30-24, making all their games fantasy-friendly.
• Washington is also 4-1 to the OVER this season by an average of +11.1 points above the number (first).
• WFT is 31st in points allowed and 29th in opponent plays allowed. With KC fifth in yards per play, this does not set up well for the Football Team.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Travis Kelce feels like a solid buy-low on DK, down $1.5k from his $8.5k high. Over on FD he is still $8.5k, which is too close to the elite WRs and RBs, so I will only use him in stacks. I will be rolling out 2-TE stacks with Kelce and Ricky Seals-Jones, who came through in the optimal lineup last week at minimum price (5-41-0). 

RSJ missed out on a long 30-yard reception due to penalty and led the team with three red-zone targets. KC has been a great source for TE production, first in yards allowed despite being 10th in targets against. Expect RSJ back in the optimal at his low price and high expected usage in what should be a shootout. 

Logan Thomas, Cam Sims and Curtis Samuel are OUT again, opening up even more targets for Seals-Jones and Terry McLaurin. Marshon Lattimore ended up sticking to McLaurin for 8 of his 11 targets last week, holding him to 2-31-0 (4-46-0 overall). KC is allowing 8.9 YPA and 26th in percentage of 10-yard pass plays allowed. CB Charvarius Ward and DE Chris Jones remain OUT.

Patrick Mahomes is fifth in red-zone passing attempts, which is another hit to the RBs ceiling. KC has seen four top-12 DVOA units and Baltimore, so this will be the softest matchup to date. Washington is second in fantasy points per game allowed and has allowed 71.95% of yards to be accumulated via the pass, ranking 29th in pass and ninth in rush DVOA. He and Lamar Jackson are (easily) the top two QB options on the slate. 

Tyreek Hill was back at practice Friday, with Andy Reid noting he was “bouncing around pretty good,” per Herbie Teope of The Kansas City Star. I am building lineups with the thought Tyreek is in the lineup and thus the top wideout on the slate. The stack is expensive, but there is enough value on the slate to make it work. Tyreek is 3.34 points better on the road in his career (DK), 6 points better more productive since the start of 2020. 

Mecole Hardman saw his snap share go over 70% last week, receiving a career-high 12 targets for 9-67-0. I know many worry about Josh Gordon, but I wouldn’t — even if he sees a few more snaps it could be in replacement of Demarcus Robisnson and Byron Pringle. Hardman and Hill line up inside a lot (40% for Hardman, 38% for Hill), which is a matchup nightmare for teams. WFT has struggled in slot coverage — Benjamin St-Juste has given way to seventh-round converted safety Kamren Curl since going into concussion protocol. Curl ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash, which is not going to cut it against Hardman and Tyreek. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on IR with an MCL injury, inserting Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon into our fantasy lives. Williams was already seeing 25% of team rush attempts recently and the majority of carries inside the red zone and 10-yard line. I don’t know how much of McKinnon, but he could be electric (while healthy) in this offense. The issue for McKinnon and all the KC RBs is that KC is 31st in RB target share. Running the splits on the two games Williams got at least a 70% snap share yielded 15.5 touches and 83.5 total yards per game. 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

Taylor Heinicke is the biggest risk for McLaurin considering his inaccuracy (65% clean pocket completion rate, 31st). He showed why he was profiled as QB2 last week, finishing with his lowest completion rate and YPA to go along with 2 INTs. The upside is there, however, especially at his high price. Heinicke has 40-plus rush yards in his last two games and finished with his season-high 388 air yards last week (KC is 32nd in FP to QBs). 

Antonio Gibson saw 22 touches last week, his most since Week 1, which was a surprise to many in a game that favored the passing attack. He was only able to grind out 60 yards on 20 carries against the tough New Orleans rush D, saving his day with two TDs. That is four scores in three games, which has hidden a 3.9 YPC average this season. He also ran 11 routes to J.D. McKissic’s 25 in the loss last week, so if this thing shoots out the way we want Gibson could end up being phased out a bit and even more TD dependent. JD can be deployed in large field stacks as a run back to Mahomes or connected to Heinicke, but keep in mind he has two games where he has averaged 18 FP and three averaging 2.5 FP.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

HOU +9.5 @ IND, O/U 43.5
Implied team totals: IND 26.5, HOU 17

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends 

• Both teams are bottom-12 in neutral pace.
• Indianapolis will drop to a 39% pass rate if they get an 8-point lead and slow it down even further.
• Houston passes at a 66% rate when down by at least 8.
• Houston has struggled on the road, allowing 402 total yards and 35.5 points at BUF and CLE.
• Houston allows 1.8 rush TDs per game (T-1st)
• Houston is 31st in offensive plays per game, and Indianapolis has allowed the sixth-fewest plays per game to their opponents.
• The Houston rush defense (4.95 adjusted line yards allowed) is terrible, allowing a league-high 177.5 rushing yards a game on the road on 37 attempts per game and the highest rush rate against.
• These teams are 31st and 32nd (INDY) in defensive pressure rate.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Jonathan Taylor has a robust 17.5-carry, 80.5-rush-yard prop (15.5 receiving yards) heading into a favorable matchup against the Texans as a 10-point home favorite. I was impressed with the way the Colts’ offensive line played against Baltimore and expect them to dominate the Houston front seven. 

Taylor is also improving, up to 3.33 yards after contact, which is just behind Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry among RBs with at least 65 carries (per FTN Data). He is also first in red-zone opportunities, averaging 5.2 per game, second in juke rate and evaded tackle rate (per Player Profiler).

If you are looking for a path to fade, it would be the passing game doing more than expected, or Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack stealing work. Taylor has seen (by game) 56%-57%-55%-48%-57% of team rush attempts, with the low mark being on a week he was listed as questionable throughout the week, with Indianapolis averaging 28 rush attempts per game at home and HOU allowing 24-plus in their last three games, he should end up in the 16- to 20-carry range with 100 total yards and score. I look at his receiving production as the icing on the cake, last week was the first time he ran more routes than Hines this season. 

With the public hammering the JT button, all the other Colts will make nice leverage plays on the field. I don’t think Houston has enough to win you a GPP. so we would be looking for them to do enough to keep the Colts passing. 

Michael Pittman has quietly transformed into a WR1 since Week 1, seeing 29% of team targets and 42.75% of their air yards. That has quietly made him eighth in receptions and fourth in WOPR, behind only Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and DJ Moore. Considering his $5.5k/$5.8k (FD) price tag and low ownership, he is one of my favorite WRs on the slate in all formats. 

I also, of course, like the Colts DST here.

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

Carson Wentz hit his first ceiling this season in a shootout with Lamar Jackson. I don’t think Houston will be able to push Indianapolis into another 400-yard performance, but I do think he could hit 20-plus fantasy points at a low price and ownership. 

Mo Alie-Cox is a beast but is stuck behind Jack Doyle in snap share, which makes him a GPP flier at best. He has out-targeted Doyle 9-2 in their last two games and is obviously a large red-zone target. 

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

GB -4.5 @ CHI, O/U 45
Implied team totals: GB 24.75, CHI 20.25

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Damien Williams was put on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, leaving Khalil Herbert to lead a backfield that has been averaging 30 rush attempts per game on the third-highest overall rush rate (first in neutral situations).
• Chicago has picked up 53% of their yards via the rush (first), with CLE second at 45%.
• Chicago is last in yards per play, getting just 4.2 YPP.
• Green Bay is averaging 24 points per game (13th), down 7.5 points from last year where they led the league.
• GB is 19th in yards per play after being 2nd in 2020.
• CHI is fourth in pass DVOA since being embarrassed by Matthew Stafford and the Rams in Week 1, allowing 207 passing yards per game in their last four.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Khalil Herbert led the team last week with a 53% snap share, so this is not going to be a big stretch for the rookie. He is not big, but we have seen lots of backs with his profile handle big workloads (think a young Devonta Freeman). He wasn’t much of a pass catcher in college and only ran 4 routes last week, so we could see Ryan Nall come in on some third downs. That said, Herbert did get the two-minute offense work last week so there could be some targets with Fields throwing to his RBs at a 20% rate. 

Davante Adams will try to improve on his 11-206-1 performance last week. Since Week 1 he has had a laughable 45% target share (first) and a 99 WOPR (first), so 10-plus targets is close to a lock. At his ultra-high price and ownership, I will be underweight compared to the field and hope he posts a 6-53-1 line as he averaged against CHI last year. 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

Aaron Jones has been very consistent but has only reached 18 fantasy points one time this year, and that was due to 3 receiving TDs, obviously an outlier. AJ Dillon has seen an increase in playing time and usage, which has Jones below a 60% snap share in his last two games. His presence, the matchup and the price have Jones a multi-entry GPP play. 

We like to highlight the positive splits, but it works the other way as well. In seven games against Chicago, Jones is down 8.22 FPPG against his career average. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

LAC +3 @ BAL, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: BAL 27.25, LAC 24.25

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• The Chargers are third in neutral pace, passing at the ninth-highest rate overall (sixth neutral).
• Baltimore is so unique that looking at pace and play-calling is not as critical. They maintain their pace regardless of script and will get up to a 63% pass rate if they fall behind, as we saw against Indianapolis. That is the ultimate scenario for this game stack, LAC gets an early lead and gets Lamar Jackson from a 50% pass rate to 60% or higher.
• LAC keeps passing at 57% and moves very fast when up by at least 7, so again, we want LAC to get a lead for the fireworks to begin.
• Los Angeles has allowed the highest percentage of rush yards against.
• BAL is first in explosive pass rate and 11th in explosive rush rate, though most of those are Lamar Jackson. He also has four carries of 20-plus yards, second to only Nick Chubb.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Lamar Jackson is averaging a QB-high 11 rush attempts per game, which (like Arizona) skews the passing numbers, but we should reassess the way we look at QB rushes, as they are just as much a part of the passing offense as they are the rushing offense, which of course is where they are counted statistically. Not that it is as important this season as in the past, with Lamar crushing it with 239, 287, 316 and 442 passing yards in his last four. 

He is first in average depth of target, second in yards per completion, fourth in total air yards, fifth in ANY/A, third in accuracy and second in fantasy points per dropback (per Player Profiler). He is averaging 33 pass attempts (up 8 from 2020), which, combined with those 11 rush attempts, make him No. 1 in terms of QB rush attempts plus pass attempts (44.6), just ahead of Mahomes at 43.6. 

The one issue Jackson could have is that Los Angeles defends the deep pass well, where he has thrived this season (5.4 deep attempts per game, third). Baltimore is just 25th in YAC, meaning they have been relying on those air yards to average 13.6 yards per catch (T-1st with LAR). That may lower his passing yards back down to earth a bit, but his legs should have no problems, which is still his greatest asset for DFS. The Chargers are terrible at stopping second-level and open-field runs (not to mention all other types of runs), making this a juicy matchup with his rushing upside. LAC has yet to face a true rushing QB this season but did allow 4-45-0 to Mahomes and led the league with 8 rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2020. 

Austin Ekeler has joined the elite (along with Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor) in terms of red-zone usage, averaging over 5 opportunities per game down there. He has averaged 21 touches plus targets in their past two games, which has him at 24.7 FPPG, the highest number on this slate (4.4 more than Ezekiel Elliott). After getting lit up by the Colts backs, Baltimore is now fifth in FPPG allowed to the position. 

Mark Andrews is slated to be the chalk TE on FD after his 41-point explosion a week ago. The matchup is good, and his price is still reasonable enough that if we only get his floor, it will be acceptable given the volatility of the position. LAC is now 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to TEs after David Njoku’s breakout last week, but they have faced a tough TE schedule (Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas), which is more responsible for the poor numbers against. Andrews is right behind Kelce in raw projected points but gets the edge as TE1 with a $2.2k discount on FD. 

Marquise Brown continues his ascension up the WR ranks, which is not a surprise to those reading this article. I have been a huge Hollywood stan, and even after he crushed us with those string of drops in Detroit he still enters Week 6 as the WR6 in fantasy. When you consider the 27 fantasy points he left on the field in DET (yes, I counted) he would be the WR1 this season. 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

I am going to wait to see the status of Mike Williams (38% target share in week 5) for this Chargers stack, as it is one of the best on the slate with Justin Herbert on fire (30 fantasy points per game in his last three). 

Be sure to check back Sunday morning in the update, though I can tell you all of them are still in play regardless, with Keenan Allen getting the biggest (assumed) target share bump if Williams misses. Baltimore has allowed the second-most targets and third-most yards to TEs, making Jared Cook a strong play if Big Mike has to sit. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns

ARI +3 @ CLE, O/U 49.5
Implied team totals: CLE 26.25, ARI 23.25

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• The Browns are an enigma for DFS — with their slow pace and high rush rate (second overall), they can squeeze the life out of the game. They also have playmakers on defense that have played well against inferior opponents, keeping them out high scoring games (11.3 PPG allowed versus HOU, CHI, MIN). Then there are the two road games, where they allowed 40 points per game to KC and LAC.
• Arizona crashed into their floor last week against San Francisco, scoring 17 points after averaging 35 for the first three weeks.
• Arizona plays at the fastest neutral pace but has a conservative pass rate (57%). That pass rate should come with an asterisk, as Kyler Murray rushes 6 times per game, which skews that number when looking at Kyler’s overall fantasy value.
• Cleveland has pushed teams to the 26th-highest pass rate against, allowing the fifth-fewest adjusted line yards and third-fewest RB yards per carry (No. 5 rush DVOA).
• CLE is 19th in pass DVOA and has shown us they are exploitable on the back end against top-tier QBs.
• There is wind in the forecast, which we saw destroy CLE and their opponents last year. People will say RBs and the rushers are safe, and in terms of carries and targets that is true, but fewer overall first downs, more total yards and red-zone scoring opportunities lead to insane shootouts like last week in LA.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Nick Chubb is OUT. We will see some Demetric Felton, possibly a little D’Ernest Johnson, but it is Kareem Hunt chalk week. Hunt has been great with Chubb so this will be a tough fade, even for the most committed contrarians. With Chubb on the field, Hunt has only received a 43% opportunity share (43rd among RBs), but he enters Week 6 as the RB7 in PPR. If Hunt gets up to even 20 touches (he and Chubb have been averaging a combined 33.4), he is a lock for 20 fantasy points. In 33 career games with at least 15 touches, he is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game, and it even gets more fun as his usage increases. In 16 career games with 20-plus touches on DK, he is averaging more than 23 fantasy points. 

The Cleveland offensive line continues to push people around, ranking top three in nearly every relevant OL stat. Arizona is 31st in RB yards per carry allowed and 25th in adjusted line yards, making this nearly as good a matchup as last week in LA. Per Sharp Football, Arizona is dead last in explosive rush rate allowed (19%).

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

I will update more on the passing options in this game, including DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham David Njoku and Kyler Murray after I know the weather status. We also want the status of Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams, who all practiced for the second consecutive day on a limited basis Friday. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots

DAL -4 @ NE, O/U 49.5
Implied team totals: DAL 26.75, NE 22.75

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• This total surprised me, opening at 48 and currently sitting at 51, one of four games with at least a 50 O/U.
• NE is 26th in points scored and fifth in points allowed and yards per drive, seeing four of five games go UNDER the total, including all three home games.
• NE is 2-9 to the UNDER in NE since Tom Brady departed.
• Dallas is 9-2 at home to the OVER since 2020, but 4-6 to the UNDER away from the Jerry Dome.
• Dallas is averaging 34 PPG (second), while allowing 23.4 (14th).
• Dallas is averaging 40 PPG at home (three games) and 24 PPG in two road games against LAC and TB.
• Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS, NE is 2-3 overall ATS and 1-2 at home.
• With Dallas winning four straight and being in a shootout with Tom Brady, they have seen a 70% pass rate against (second).
• NE is the opposite — they have seen the fourth-lowest pass rate.
• NE passes at the fourth-highest overall rate (fifth neutral), something I did not expect heading into the season.
• Also surprising, Dallas has gone run heavy, 29th overall (20th neutral pass rate).
• I think New England will want to shorten this game as they have no chance to match offensive blows with the Cowboys.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

We trusted Dalton Schultz again, and again he rewarded us. Since Week 2, he leads the team in target share (24%), receptions and receiving TDs (3). It is even more dramatic over the past three games with Schultz seeing a 29.67% target share (first among all TEs, T-6th among all receivers). 

NE has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but have had a laughable TE schedule, seeing Durham Smythe, Ryan Griffin, Tyler Kroft, Cameron Brate, Pharaoh Brown, Jordan Akins and Antony Auclair. They also saw Mike Gesicki and held him scoreless. I don’t think Schultz is taking over for CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper as the top dog, but at his price and usage, tied to Dak Prescott, he is in the top tier once again. 

Like against TEs, the defensive stats versus NE are a result of playing a cupcake schedule. They did allow Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette 100-plus total yards and rank 21st in adjusted line yards allowed (despite a soft schedule). Dallas is the only team running more efficiently than Cleveland, making Ezekiel Elliott a top-five RB again. Zeke has three straight games with at least 20 touches, which has resulted in 26.1 FPPG on DK. Like last week (in the optimal), Zeke will be outside the top-5 in RB ownership. 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

If you have a good read on the Patriots’ defense, please let me know. They went from shutting down the seemingly unstoppable TB passing offense to getting lit up by Davis Mills for 3 TDs last week. Clearly motivation played a part, which I don’t think will be a problem against America’s Team in the primetime afternoon TV slot. 

For Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, it is a tough situation with them sharing so much usage with the RBs and Schultz while seeing the passing volume plummet. I don’t think the NE offense can do enough against an improved Dallas D to get them out of the run first scheme, which will leave it tough for the full 3-player stack to be a GPP winner. 

Damien Harris was limited in practice Thursday and Friday. He left last week’s game against the Texans twice, eventually being ruled out after just 21 snaps (33%). To add insult to injury, he also had a TD overturned on a long review. NE used Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden in a near-equal split after Harris left the game. If you think this becomes a shootout, Bolden would be it, as he has seen 14 targets in his last three games (13-80-0), while Harris and Stevenson have combined for 10 targets this season. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

LV +3.5 @ DEN, O/U 44
Implied team totals: DEN 24, LV 20.5

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• This is one of three games with a total of 44 or less.
• DEN is 1-4 to the UNDER this season and 9-12 since 2020 (4-6 at home). Their games have combined for 35.6 points (32nd). In comparison, LV games have combined for 46.6 points.
• DEN is allowing 5 yards per play, third best. They also allow the third-fewest plays to their opponents, which is not a good setup for DFS.
• Las Vegas is passing at the fifth-highest rate, while DEN has pushed their opponents into the ninth-highest pass rate.
• LV normally runs a lot of plays, still fifth on the season despite last week (down 10 from their season average).
• LV is actually fifth in yards per play allowed, ranking 13th in overall DVOA. They have limited opposing QBs to 17 FPPG on DK despite facing Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert in their first five games.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

N/A 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

I would love to roll out Javonte Williams and his league-leading forced missed tackle rate in all formats, but Melvin Gordon will simply never die. The Raiders are allowing 148.0 rush yards per game in their last three and are 29th in explosive rush rate against so I will get some exposure as a low-owned flex. 

LV has dealt with a lot of injuries in the secondary, leaving 5-foot-8 Amik Robertson playing outside against giant WRs like Tim Patrick (6-4) and Courtland Sutton (6-3). I would keep both of them in your player pool as low-owned one-offs if you are making 150 lineups with the optimizer as both have multi-TD upside against Robertson. 

Josh Jacobs has set the Raiders offense back, gaining just 3.2 YPC this season. One positive (I try) is 5 targets in each of his last two games, but it is not enough for me to roll him out in the Broncos, who are fifth in RB yards allowed. 

Derek Carr has 371 and 391 passing yards in his last two trips to Denver (not a typo). I am not a big “BvP” guy as players and schemes change, but it is hard to miss those outlier games in consecutive trips to Colorado. I will be shocked if history repeats itself again, but felt I needed to mention it. 

No surprise: Darren Waller had big games when Carr passed for 370-plus. He has been meh since Week 1, but if you are taking a flier on Carr you need to stack him with his (low owned) TE. 

My love for Henry Ruggs continues, but he is stuck with such low usage I can’t comfortably recommend him. Maybe the coaching change will help, but for now he remains a deep GPP flier only. DEN has allowed some long TD catches and big games to WRs, including 5-130-1 to Chase Claypool, 7-113-1 to Sterling Shepard and 4-91-1 to Marquise Brown. They also let Diontae Johnson get loose for a 50-yard TD pass last week. The other two games were against JAX and NYJ, so we can throw those out. 

Hunter Renfrow is very consistent, scoring at least 10 fantasy points in every game this season. The issue for GPPs is he has yet to crack 20 FP. He is a lock for a 5-50 line but will need to score to make you happy in GPPs. He is not a priority on this slate, but I thought it was worthy to mention given how rare it is to see a WR get 5 or 6 grabs so consistently. 

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants

LAR -10.5 @ NYG, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: LAR 29, NYG 18.5

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Both the Rams and Giants are league average in terms of pace and pass rate.
• LAR is first in yards per play on offense, third in yards per drive and third in points per drive.
• LAR is just eighth in points per game, signaling we haven’t seen the true (think Tampa vs. Miami) ceiling yet.
• Only KC has a higher implied team total on the slate than LAR.
• After going 6-12 to the UNDER last year, LAR is 4-1 to the OVER with their games combining for 51.2 PPG.
• NYG is 6-15 to the UNDER since the beginning of 2020 (2-8 at home).

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Darrell Henderson gets a prime matchup against this Giants’ front seven, which is last in adjusted line yards allowed, giving up 4.8 YPC to RBs and just under 30 FPPG on DK. He is going to be popular in this spot as a 10-point favorite, likely second behind Hunt. 

With Henderson dealing with multiple injuries this season, I would expect we see a little more Sony Michel— at least that is my hope on teams I fade. Matthew Stafford and company will also need to play a part if you fade by getting out to a big lead without Henderson doing much. 

I really like Henderson and he is (way) too cheap on DK, making him really painful to fade. That said, if you pair him with Kareem Hunt, you are going to run into a ton of lineups that look very similar to yours, so be sure to mix in at least two players with sub-10% ownership. 

I will hedge a bit here, putting him on two of my three-max teams while fading him in single-entry. If he doesn’t come through, we will have a nice edge on the field in SE. If he smashes, we concentrate on our two 3-Max teams with him on it. 

Cooper Kupp was overshadowed by Bob Trees last week yet still ended with 7-92-1 on 10 targets. He is the WR2 on the slate behind Adams. Both he and Robert Woods will be popular, but I think you want some exposure to this LAR offense so we can’t fade them all. That’s what makes Henderson such a tough fade — at $6k you need to pay up (significantly) for Kupp at the more volatile WR position or play Woods at the same price. 

Devontae Booker should be very busy again this week. He got 19-of-20 backfield touches last week after Saquon Barkley left with injury, picking up 58 total yards but two TDs to end with a solid 20.8 FP. He got four targets and should be able to excel in the passing game again with them a 10-point underdog. LAR has allowed 6 RB catches per game and the Giants have no one behind Booker who should take away usage. With Hunt, Taylor, Ekeler, Herbert and so many RBs in between I think Booker will go somewhat overlooked. 

One way to decide how to attack this Rams offense is simply stack them. Stack Stafford, Henderson, Kupp and Woods. Too many you say? Go back and see how Tom Brady/Leonard Fournette/Antonio Brown/Mike Evans stacks did last week and reassess if you think so. 

If your (non-rushing) QB is going to break the slate, and his team scores 40-plus points, the “QB+3” stack is going to smash. Even stacks with Chris Godwin versus Evans were good for big money in GPPs last week as you also got Brady-Lenny-AB. This applies to teams like KC, LAR, TB and others that can truly post 40-plus points. 

 GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

NYG is hurting with Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay OUT. WR Kadarius Toney is questionable, though “all signs point to him playing,” according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. Darius Slayton is a game-time decision but Sterling Shepard will be back. Evan Engram is also healthy, making this a crowded WR room with the rebirth of John Ross.

It will be very interesting to see how NYG splits the slot snaps between Shepard and Toney, who have both lined up inside primarily. Shepard was in this situation before with Golden Tate (another slot WR) and he was the one that moved outside. This is critical this week as the slot WR will see the most Jalen Ramsey (63% slot rate). I expect Shepard to stay inside this time, as Toney has the speed to create separation/get behind a secondary. None of these guys are priorities with no clue how the targets are distributed, though if you want me to choose one it is the rookie. 

The other big news is Daniel Jones made it through concussion protocol and will be back under center. His injury crushed some awesome teams with Toney, so I am going to move on here before I start tilting again. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

MIN +1.5 @ CAR, O/U 46.5
Implied team totals: CAR 24, MIN 22.5

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Minnesota passed at a 56% rate last week and ran a play every 30 seconds after 63% and 24.5 seconds per play in Weeks 1-3 (neutral). I expect that conservative (terrible) game plan was what has Kirk Cousins so fired up at the end of the game.
• CAR has limited their opponents to the fewest offensive plays per game.
• CAR has limited their opponents to 4.8 yards per play (second) and the third-fewest points. Other than getting lit up in Dallas, they have not allowed 20 points in a game.
• CAR allows their opponents the fewest plays per game, while ranking third in offensive plays run.
• MIN is 19th in points per game, 20th in yards and 23rd in points per drive.
• Unlike last season, MIN is 0-3 to the UNDER at home (18.7 PPG) and 2-0 to the OVER on the road, scoring 24 and 33 points in Arizona and Cincinnati.
• CAR is 3-8 to the UNDER at home under this coaching staff (0-3 this season).
• Both teams get after the QB, ranking first and second in pressure rate. Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins are both top-10 in pressured completion rate, but I would still rather play QBs that aren’t going to be under constant duress.

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

I said last week, “one week does not mean Chuba Hubbard can’t/won’t be a workhorse back,” and I am kicking myself for not playing him. The week after being a chalk fail, Hubbard got 29 touches for 134 total yards (5 receptions). He put up a CMC-like 21.4 FP (without a TD) and now gets a juicy matchup with the terrible MIN run defense (29th in adjusted line yards). MIN has allowed 132.7 rush yards per game in their last three and the fifth-most rush yards allowed overall. MIN has also allowed a rush TD in every game this season after ending 2020 allowing 7 rush TDs to New Orleans (in one game). They have now allowed a rush TD in 10 straight. He will be more popular again as a top-sox RB on the slate. 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

Justin Jefferson is so talented I want to play him most weeks. He could have gone for 200 yards against DET, with only the coaching staff preventing it. With Adams, Hill, Kupp, and so many other great WR matchups on the slate I can’t put him in the other section, but I won’t be surprised to see him hit 20-plus FP here at very low ownership. 

DJ Moore is primed for a bounceback after a pedestrian 5-42-0 output against PHI. Teams have avoided Patrick Peterson (3.5 targets per game in coverage). I don’t think Peterson is anything special anymore, so I suppose it is the brand name that scares away QBs. Bashaud Breeland has been the weak link, but Cameron Dantzler is scheduled to return so Breeland could lose snaps. Like JJ, I can’t rank him over Adams, Hill, Kupp in the top-tier. 

Dalvin Cook practiced all week and will return. In a tough matchup and after seeing Alexander Mattison perform so well I don’t see him going back to the 90/10 split we saw prior to the injury, at least not this week. With that in mind I think it will be tough for Cook to pay off his $8.8k price tag on FD. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions

CIN -3 @ DET, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: CIN 25.25, DET 22.25

Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP

(In order of personal exposure) 

Ja’Marr Chase is the best play in this game and a top-four WR on the slate. As I said in the Justin Jefferson section, he could have gone for 200-plus yards against this terrible DET secondary. The Lions are last in explosive pass rate against and Cincinnati is ninth, with Chase the main reason for it (fifth in deep targets, fourth in yards per target and first in air yards percent). He can’t sustain this pace forever, but this is DET in the dome so not expecting the regression to hit here. 

The buzz in Bengals camp is Joe Mixon should be a full-go and should go back to a full workload. Per Bengals.com, Zac Taylor said, “I think every week you come off a sprained ankle, it gets better.” Taylor indicated Mixon is back to his regular amount of carries.

RB Samaje Perine is OUT, leaving rookie running back Chris Evans and recent practice squad call-up Trayveon Williams to back up Mixon. DET has allowed over 31 FPPG to RBs this season (DK) setting up Mixon for his first ceiling game since Week 1 against MINN (28 FP). 

GPP/Multi-Entry

(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)

Joe Burrow and a full Bengals stack with Mixon and Chase feels like something we need to do this week in this cupcake matchup. The only thing that has prevented DET from being a top defense in terms of FP allowed is script. Teams are up and not concerned with DET, so they run out the clock with their RBs. We will need DET to score more than they have (17 points or fewer in four straight), otherwise I am not sure Burrow will be asked to do enough to win a GPP. 

D’Andre Swift is set up for a good script again against a CIN team that has been getting killed by RB receptions. He makes a lot of sense as a run back to a Burrow stack, but I don’t think he is a requirement. As I have said before, when you run back a stack with the most obvious play from the other team you create a lot of overlap in roster construction. Everyone has been taught the same thing about correlation and all the optimizers are going to put Swift in as the DET +1. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a less expensive and lower owned runback for your CIN stacks. He can also be used as a one-off after seeing his snap share spike to 87% last week. He has a 23% target share in his last two games (8 targets per game). Slot CB Mike Hilton has struggled in coverage, allowing an 82% completion rate and 1.8 FP per target. 

Quintez Cephus is on IR, joining Tyrell Williams. That leaves a banged-up T.J. Hockenson, Kalif Raymond and St. Brown as Jared Goff’s primary options to go along with Swift. 

Cash/SE Core

Core (FD): Lamar Jackson – Taylor- Mixon – Ja’Marr Chase- Amon-Ra St. Brown – Cooper Kupp – Kareem Hunt 

Core (DK): Taylor Heinicke – Jonathan Taylor – Darrell Henderson – Tyreek Hill – Terry McLaurin – Mecole Hardman – Ricky Seals-Jones

ALT DK: Taylor Heinicke – Jonathan Taylor – Darrell Henderson – Tyreek Hill – Terry McLaurin – Mecole Hardman – Ricky Seals-Jones – Travis Kelce 

Stack ranks 

• KC/WFT
• CIN
• LAC/BAL
• LAR

My player exposures (not in the core)

QB 

• Patrick Mahomes
• Joe Burrow
• Justin Herbert

RB 

• Austin Ekeler
• Khalil Herbert
• Chuba Hubbard
• Devontae Booker

WR 

• Michael Pittman
• Marquise Brown/Keenan Allen/ Mike Williams (in stacks)
• Tee Higgins
• Robert Woods
• DJ Moore

TE

• Mark Andrews (kills me not to have Andrews in the core, but w/ RSJ value and Kelce at $7k he is 3rd)
• Dalton Schultz
• Jared Cook (in Herbert stacks)

DST 

• Colts
• Rams (Yahoo)
• Vikings (FD)
• Browns
• Chargers
• Lions (DK punt)