NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no better feeling than knowing a fantasy player will bomb and successfully avoiding them on draft day. To help you avoid these mines, we’re going over every team’s Most Overrated Fantasy Player.
We did the NFC Thursday, and we’re running through the AFC today.
(Check out the most underrated fantasy football players from the AFC and NFC!)
Want more draft day prep? Check out our 2022 cheat sheets for everything you need to know, our our top 100 PPR fantasy football rankings for free.
AFC East
Patriots — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Damien Harris, RB
Rhamondre Stevenson is the fast riser in this offense. Damien Harris still often goes before Stevenson in drafts, but it’s starting to trend in the other direction (though both still go close to each other). And in the last week, rumors have come up that Harris may end up being traded. Harris’ fantasy value was carried by an astonishing 15 TDs last year, but he’s due for regression in that department even if he somehow has the same workload (which is not happening with Stevenson rising so fast).
Bills — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Gabe Davis, WR
I wrote up Gabe Davis as the worst pick you can make in Round 4, so it stands to reason he’s Buffalo’s most overrated fantasy player, too. He’s being drafted as a bona fide fantasy WR2, but it’s only because people are trying to complete their Josh Allen stacks. Davis is going at least one, maybe two, rounds earlier than he really should. To be clear, Davis as very obvious breakout potential. The problem is his cost — a huge jump up in production is already baked in.
Dolphins — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Tyreek Hill, WR
Tyreek Hill is coming off draft boards as the WR9, which doesn’t seem crazy, but you’d be crazy to think going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is not almost as bad as it gets for a player with Hill’s skillset. He also leaves an offense in KC in which he saw 159 targets on a 25% team target market share to join the Dolphins, where Jaylen Waddle saw 142 targets as a rookie, also on a 25% team target market share. Hill and Waddle are likely to eat into each other.
Jets — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Garrett Wilson, WR
There’s nothing inherently wrong with where Garrett Wilson is going in drafts, but it almost feels like he’s landed here in ADP (WR54) just because it’s around all of the other rookie WRs. Everyone is expecting a huge leap from Elijah Moore, who has apparently been “the guy” during training camp, and veteran Corey Davis is still around. The Jets also added Breece Hall and beefed up their TE room. In short, this team has plenty of weapons, and Wilson is not a lock to be the No. 2 guy in targets.
NFC West
Chiefs — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is cheap (RB28 right now), but there remains hope in CEH as a post-post-hype sleeper. But the Chiefs have bolstered the RB room behind Edwards-Helaire with moves that clearly signal little faith in CEH being the featured back we wanted him to be. Ronald Jones is fully capable, if not spectacular, and rookie Isiah Pacheco is a name you need to familiarize yourself with. The team may also keep Jerick McKinnon (playoff breakout player) and/or Derrick Gore as well.
Chargers — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Mike Williams, WR
Mike Williams is the WR14 off draft boards, but it’s hard to swallow when looking at his full game logs from last year. He scored over 20 fantasy points in four of the team’s first five games last year. Then he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in six of the next nine.
Raiders — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Darren Waller, TE
Darren Waller is the Raiders player most threatened by the arrival of Davante Adams. And the emergence of Hunter Renfrow, coupled with Adams’ presence, means Wallers’ elite target share (23.4%, second among TEs) may not be as safe as we hope.
Broncos — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Courtland Sutton, WR
He’s coming off boards as the WR16, meaning people view him as an elite fantasy WR2. It’s the Russell Wilson effect. But Courtland Sutton is going far ahead of teammate Jerry Jeudy (despite the two being neck-and-neck in our projections). Sutton, like Gabe Davis, is a popular breakout candidate for good reason. But also like Davis, Sutton’s rise is already baked into his ADP.
NFC North
Bengals — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Joe Burrow, QB
This one is all about where Joe Burrow goes compared to some other similar QBs. He’s the No. 75 player overall based on current ADP. Tom Brady and Dak Prescott both go a full round later, which just makes Burrow look like a terrible value.
Browns — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Nick Chubb, RB
The Browns have very few players to choose from who you would even argue are “overrated.” We’ll go with Nick Chubb, who checks in at No. 16 for our projections but is often drafted in the top 12 at the position. No Deshaun Watson for 11 games also caps Chubb’s scoring potential. The rushing yards will be there, but maybe not much else.
Steelers — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Chase Claypool, WR
I am a huge Chase Claypool fan, but his inability to break out in Year 2 despite what should have been a good opportunity to do so, coupled with the arrival (and rise) of George Pickens, Claypool’s position as the No. 2 WR in Pittsburgh is maybe not as secure as we think.
Ravens — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: J.K. Dobbins, RB
J.K. Dobbins was only last week reinstated after his knee injury last summer, and the Ravens have a hot mess in the backfield. Dobbins should lead the way, but Gus Edwards, Tyler Badie and maybe even Mike Davis will rotate in more than Dobbins managers will want. The RB role in Baltimore should pay huge dividends, but it doesn’t because of a potential RBBC.
NFC South
Titans — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Derrick Henry, RB
Derrick Henry is the only Titans player ranked in the top 35 at his respective position, so it a) feels disingenuous to call others overrated and b) Henry is probably overrated. He’s the RB4 off draft boards ahead of Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara. I don’t think it’s completely crazy to rank Henry ahead of these players, but all of them have receiving upside that Henry lacks. And the King won’t rush for over 150 yards and 3 TDs like he was seemingly every game in 2021 before he got hurt. The regression will hit, and it will hit sooner rather than later. I’d rather be out early on Henry than out late.
Jaguars — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Christian Kirk, WR
Here’s what I wrote about Christian Kirk in the worst picks by round piece: “I have Kirk ranked No. 106 overall, but his ADP is No. 81 — more than two full rounds before I’m willing to draft him.” Jacksonville’s passing offensive is swimming with receiving targets (Kirk, Travis Etienne, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, Laviska Shenault, Evan Engram), and there’s no comfortable way to rank Kirk for a huge target volume with so many mouths to feed.
Colts — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Jonathan Taylor, RB
Jonathan Taylor is incredible. But he’s being drafted as the best fantasy football option in the world even though he’s not. That mantle belongs to Christian McCaffrey. (Also, Michael Pittman is really the only other potential player to call overrated here, and I don’t think he is.)
Texans — Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Dameon Pierce, RB
All Texans players are so cheap that you won’t screw up your team by drafting any of them. But Dameon Pierce is the most overrated for the time being, as he’s listed as third on the team’s RB depth chart during the preseason.
