Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every fantasy football player loves finding diamonds in the rough, so let’s keep it simple and go team-by-team with the most underrated fantasy players each one hast to offer.
We covered the AFC’s most underrated fantasy players Tuesday. Today, we’re taking a look at every NFC team.
Want more draft day prep? Check out our 2022 cheat sheets for everything you need to know, our top 100 PPR fantasy football rankings for free.
NFC East
Cowboys — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Ezekiel Elliott should be a Round 3 fantasy pick, but he’s going in Round 4 and sometimes even slips all the way into the fifth. He played hurt through most of last season, and now seems poised to split the backfield with Tony Pollard once again. But Elliott still ran for over 1,000 yards, 10 TDs and caught 47 passes despite Pollard’s rise in 2021 and Elliott’s lingering injuries. Elliott is no longer elite, but he’s priced at his absolute floor right now.
Giants — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Kadarius Toney, WR
Kadarius Toney is flying up draft boards as people are realizing that, oh yeah, the former first-round pick is actually an electric playmaker. You don’t catch 10 passes for 189 yards in your fifth game ever unless you’re cut out for the league. Toney has top-20 WR upside as a cheap price tag.
Eagles — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Dallas Goedert, TE
Dallas Goedert was top-five among TEs in team target market share last season, and he has finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in two of the last three years despite not having a full season as the primary TE in Philly.
Commanders — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Terry McLaurin, WR
Last year, with Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman produced an 88-1082-6 line, which is in line with Terry McLaurin’s career averages. If, like me, you believe McLaurin is better than Pittman, then perhaps we can project McLaurin for more (90-1200-8, anyone?).
NFC West
Rams — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Tyler Higbee, TE
Every single player on the Rams feels appropriately priced — even Tyler Higbee to an extent — but he gets the nod in this article as the overall TE20 drafted. The other TEs going in his draft range are not in nearly as good of a position as the starting TE in one of the league’s most potent passing offenses.
49ers — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Over the second half of last season, Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers in targets, yards and receptions. Over Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. And everything coming out of 49ers camp so far this year is that Aiyuk looks like he’s taken a big leap.
Cardinals — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: James Conner, RB
The Cardinals don’t really have any players that are super under- or over-valued, but give me James Conner in Round 3 for the most upside. In five games without Chase Edmonds last year, Conner averaged a truly elite 23 PPR points per game.
Seahawks — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Tyler Lockett, WR
Not sure more needs to be said than this:
Tyler Lockett played three games without Russell Wilson last year, and while he scored 0 TDs in those games, he did see more targets and receptions per game.
NFC North
Packers — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Aaron Rodgers, QB
Have we gone too far in writing off the back-to-back MVP because Davante Adams is no longer in Green Bay? It’s a small sample size, but Aaron Rodgers without Adams has been perfectly fine over the last three seasons, per the FTN NFL Splits Tool:
Vikings — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: K.J. Osborn, WR
Vikings deep targets last year: Justin Jefferson (29), K.J. Osborn (9). Deep target TDs last year: Jefferson (3), Osborn (4). He’s a big-time playmaker that could benefit from a more pass-happy offense. Osborn could also take on a larger-than-expected role if Adam Thielen is truly on the downside of his career.
Lions — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift’s ADP is 15 overall, but three FTN rankers have him ranked in the top 12 (i.e., worth of a Round 1 pick). Swift is a threat to lead RBs in receptions and finished last year with 16.3 fantasy PPG, ninth among RBs who played at least 12 games. He was a top-12 fantasy RB in five of his first 10 games last year, and he scored over 22 fantasy points in all five of those games.
Bears — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet, who scored 0 TDs last year despite being expected to score 4, is a lock for positive regression in the fantasy points department. With Allen Robinson no longer in Chicago and no other significant receiving threat added to the team, Kmet could find himself No. 2 in targets behind Darnell Mooney.
NFC South
Buccaneers — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Chris Godwin, WR
Chris Godwin is going two rounds later than he should because people are concerned about his December ACL tear. That is understandable, but Godwin is already back practicing and looks fine. He was a fantasy WR1 last year prior to the injury.
Panthers — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: DJ Moore, WR
Carolina’s players to choose from for this article are Christian McCaffrey, who usually gets drafted first or second, or DJ Moore. It’s tough to call CMC underrated (even though he should be the clear consensus 1.01), so that leaves us with Moore basically by default. FTN rankers have Moore as a Round 3 talent (34 overall in our consensus ranks), but his ADP is 41.
Saints — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Alvin Kamara, RB
Alvin Kamara is climbing draft boards as it becomes less and less likely that he’ll face suspension in 2022. The dual-threat RB is a new addition to Jeff Ratcliffe’s 2022 fantasy football rankings.
Falcons — Most Underrated Fantasy Player: Kyle Pitts, TE
FTN consensus has Kyle Pitts ranked No. 29, but his ADP is 33. That’s not a huge difference, but we’re talking about a third-round player going near some other big names, so it’s notable. The Falcons have very little in the way of fantasy intrigue this year, but Pitts played 90% of his snaps in-line or from the slot in the first preseason game, so you may just be straight up getting a WR1 instead of a TE this year.
