Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick by Round: 2022

Fantasy football draft season has arrived, and it’s time to mark your 2022 cheat sheets with your favorite targets in each round — and cross off the names you should avoid at cost.

This article will review the worst picks in each round for your fantasy football draft strategy in 2022. Average draft position data comes from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool. Also, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football rankings.

(Check out the best picks in each round for 2022 fantasy football drafts, too!)

Worst Pick in Round 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

There really isn’t a bad first-round pick this year — they are all first-round picks for a reason. But Derrick Henry’s downside — he has never had even 20 receptions in a season, has racked up significant wear and tear, and the Titans offense got worse by losing A.J. Brown — make him the “worst” of the best. 

Worst Pick in Round 2: Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Round 2 is filled with studs, too, but mark down Deebi Samuel as the most likely to bust. Back in March, I highlighted Samuel as a WR bust candidate, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

Trey Lance at QB probably means fewer rushing opportunities for Samuel — and Samuel is a lock for reduced TD rate on the rushing front anyway (he had 6 rushing TDs on just 59 attempts!).

Plus, Samuel had already taken a backseat to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk in target order over the second half of last year (Samuel was third on the team in targets. receptions and yards in Weeks 9-17), and while Samuel is obviously a very special player who will have some huge weeks, he’s just a clear regression candidate that I’d rather not spend so much on.

Worst Pick in Round 3: Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos

Listen, I love Sutton in 2022 — and the Broncos are one of the offenses with the most breakout potential this year — but a Round 3 price is too steep. I have him ranked outside of my top 50 despite his overall ADP of 36.

There are plenty of reasons to like Courtland Sutton this year, and not just the addition of Russell Wilson. Tim Patrick is also done for the year, and Patrick actually led the Broncos in end zone targets last year, so that might open up some more high-value opportunities for Sutton in addition to his deep targets.

But the group of WRs going after Sutton — including Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf in Round 4 — are better targets at lower cost.

Worst Pick in Round 4: Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

I have Gabe Davis ranked No. 64 overall.

His ADP is No. 42 overall as the WR20, ahead of Allen Robinson, Diontae Johnson, Jerry Jeudy, Brandin Cooks, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin and others.

Davis is most likely going this high as players look to complete the stack with Josh Allen (or the double-stack with Allen and Stefon Diggs). Davis’ ADP is exactly one round (11 picks) after Allen, and Allen is exactly two rounds (24 picks) after Diggs.

Securing the stack makes sense — and it’s fair to reach on a player to accomplish it — but this is a hefty price to pay. If you are going for the stack, thesis basically just the price you have to pay. If you aren’t getting a stack by taking Davis here, just don’t do it.

Yes, Davis had the impressive 4 TD game against the Chiefs in the playoffs last year, but he also spent the entire year running behind the corpse of Emmanuel Sanders and has caught exactly 35 targets in each of his first two season.

Davis is a legitimate breakout candidate, but he’s just too expensive.

Worst Pick in Round 5: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Choosing a bad pick in Round 5 is tough. The players going in this range just all seem fairly priced for the upside/floor combination they provide.

The one possible exception is Kyler Murray. The other two QBs going in this round are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, and Murray just isn’t in the same tier as them in 2022.

Murray’s disappearing act over the second half of 2021 is concerning enough that I’d rather not spent a Round 5 pick on him (though I’d gladly scoop him up in Round 6). Murray was a fantasy QB1 in 5 of his first 7 games last year, then he reached that mark just 3 times over his next 7 games.

DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension for the first six games doesn’t help Murray’s case either, nor does the return of goal-line carry hog James Conner.

Worst Pick in Round 6: Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Dalton Schultz going two to three rounds earlier than his peers at the TE position makes absolutely no sense. In fact, he’s not even projected to score more points than either of them.

Amari Cooper is out of Dallas, but the team still has plenty of mouths to feed, including CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Michael Gallup (who seems trending toward only missing a few games) and rookie Jalen Tolbert. Schultz will certainly be in the mix — and he’ll finish as a top-10 fantasy TE — but you currently have to spend way too much draft capital to get him compared to his peers.

Worst Pick in Round 7: Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The other WRs going in this round include DeAndre Hopkins, Drake London, Allen Lazard, Kadarius Toney and Hunter Renfrow.

Christian Kirk sticks out from this group — and not in a good way. I have Kirk ranked No. 106 overall, but his ADP is No. 81 — more than two full rounds before I’m willing to draft him.

Kirk is not a bad player — among deep threats (minimum average depth of target of 11 yards) with at least 70 targets last year, Kirk’s ability to turn air yards into actual yards trailed only Ja’Marr Chase — but Jacksonville is swarming with viable targets of similar skill level. 

Worst Pick in Round 8: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

I get that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is playing with Patrick Mahomes, and that is exciting. But are we forgetting that MVS played with the back-to-back MVP in Aaron Rodgers, and he was anything but exciting then?

Round 8 is getting close to the point in the draft where you’re taking a lot of dart throws anyway, so I won’t harp on the point too much, but there are WRs going after MVS like Tyler Lockett or Robert Woods, who absolutely should not be.

Worst Picks in Rounds 9 and Later

Once you get into the later rounds of fantasy drafts, it’s hard to say you made a truly bad draft pick. But what you really should be doing in this range is shooting for upside. You don’t want to be drafting Sterling Shepard types.