Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With the Super Bowl in the rearview, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season. (No I’m not letting the season breathe, this is way more fun.)
Every offseason, my first exercise is trying to sketch out an idea of what the offseason might look like. Obviously there’s more than a little fan fiction involved, but the process really gives a look at what resources are plentiful in a given offseason and what are scarce.
It’s an exercise, but a productive one: Over the next two days, I’ll break down my fantasy football wish list for the 2024 offseason. It’s one thing to say, for example, that a given team needs a quarterback or a running back. It’s another thing entirely to look at the possibilities and realize that not everyone can get Caleb Williams or Saquon Barkley — someone is going to have to settle for Jacoby Brissett or Gus Edwards. Like a jigsaw puzzle where there are many different possible pictures but still only a handful of ways for the pieces to go together.
In last year’s edition of this exercise, we pegged the Ravens drafting Zay Flowers and the Chargers drafting Quentin Johnston. We also sent Jahmyr Gibbs to Cincinnati (near the end of the second round, no less) and tried to trade Chris Godwin from Tampa to New England. It won’t be perfect. But it is a heck of a starting spot for “How could/should the offseason go?”
Remember, this is for fantasy football, so no defensive players here. AFC today, NFC Tuesday. First, though, we’ll take a look at the overall situation at the start of the offseason.
State of the Market
Contrary to last year, when wanting a receiver meant “lol, sorry sucker,” this is a pretty decent offseason to find pass-catchers. Mike Evans, Michael Pittman and Calvin Ridley are (for now?) available in free agency, while the draft is strong at the top and deep.
Conversely, if you want a running back this offseason, you’re either shopping for guys well past their prime or hoping to find a winner late in the draft. There are no Bijan Robinsons out there.
At quarterback, there should be plenty of movement and some exciting new names entering the pool in the draft, but it’s still true that there is more demand than there is supply. Depending on how it shakes out, we’ll have 2-4 teams who settle for their second, third or fourth choices.
At tight end? Well, there’s Brock Bowers. Otherwise … hope you already have a guy you like.
Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: AFC
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Trade 1.28, 3.99 and a 2025 second to the Chargers for 1.05
Draft Malik Nabers (1.05)
We’re starting with a big swing. The Bills have several needs on the defensive side this offseason (more on the Chargers’ side later), and they should use a whole host of other resources to address them. But with whatever happened to Stefon Diggs down the stretch to sap his productivity and Gabe Davis hitting free agency, the team could really use a new WR1. Enter Nabers, who would be the first receiver off the board a lot of years. He would immediately become a fantasy starter in Buffalo paired with Josh Allen.
Miami Dolphins
Sign Derrick Henry
Henry fell below 20 touches per game last year (18.1) for the first time since 2018. He turned 30 in January, so it’s not surprising that he’s slowed down. Still, he led the league in carries in 2023 and finished second in rushing yards. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane is ready to take over as the No. 1 in Miami, but there’s enough concern about his ability to stay healthy under a full load that it makes sense to give him a thunder to his lightning.
Draft Ja’Tavion Sanders (2.55)
The Dolphins could use some better blocking from the tight end position, and of course this is a team that loves speed. Enter Sanders, who might be a bit undersized for a tight end but fares well blocking in the open field and offers blazing speed at a position that doesn’t typically feature that.
New England Patriots
Draft Jayden Daniels (1.03)
Obligatory, perhaps. But we know for a virtual certainty that the Patriots are taking one of the top three quarterbacks in this year’s draft, and that also happens to be what they should do.
Trade 4.104 to Broncos for Jerry Jeudy
The bloom is fully off the Jerry Jeudy rose at this point, but this is still the guy who many argued to be the first receiver off the board only four years ago (in a first round that included CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk). He’ll likely cost no more than a Day 3 pick, and if there’s any argument for a change of scenery benefitting him, New England should take that shot.
New York Jets
Sign Mike Evans
I doubt Evans leaves Tampa Bay, but he and the team couldn’t come to an agreement before the season and there have been no peeps since it ended, so maybe it’s time for a change. The Jets’ receiving options after Garrett Wilson last year ranged from “kind of a disaster” to “full on disaster,” so let Evans spend his 30s as the 1b to Wilson’s 1a from the second Hall-of-Fame quarterback of his career.
Sign Gardner Minshew
Minshew rebuilt his flagging career value in Indianapolis last year, nearly getting the Colts to the playoffs after taking over for an injured Anthony Richardson. We just saw the Jets season fall apart with no competent backup, so they should get one.
Add Oh-So-Many Offensive Linemen
Most of the time when I suggest moves, I go specific. But in the Jets’ case, the entire line needs an overhaul. Could they sign Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu and use each of their first five picks on linemen? Sure! No issue! But this team had one of the two or three worst lines in the league last year, and in 2024 it needs a line that can protect a 40-year-old quarterback coming back from an Achilles injury. A whole lot has to change, real fast.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Sign AJ Dillon
J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are free agents. Keaton Mitchell tore his ACL. Justice Hill is still around, but his next stint as a difference-maker will be his first. Bring in Dillon, who never really made it work in Green Bay but has goal-line chops a la Edwards, and it can be a Hill/Edwards combo until Mitchell’s healthy return, at which point Dillon can be the change of pace.
Re-sign Kevin Zeitler
Zeitler turns 34 in March, so he’s on the back end of things. He was still a competent lineman in 2023, though, particularly as a pass-blocker, and he’s more valuable to the Ravens than he would be anywhere else.
Cincinnati Bengals
Sign Saquon Barkley; release Joe Mixon
You’d be forgiven for not realizing Mixon was still a top-six PPR running back last year. That was at least as much a function of health as it was of any great ability on Mixon’s part — he averaged 4.0 yards per carry, his fifth straight year of 4.1 or below, but the Bengals had no one behind him. Enter Barkley, who offers a more well-rounded skill set and could be the flashy option Mixon has stopped being.
Draft Troy Franklin (1.18)
With Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin all possibly or likely moving on in free agency, the Bengals need another receiver after Ja’Marr Chase (and that’s true even if you believe in Andrei Iosivas). Enter Franklin, who would replace Higgins’ departing speed and could slot right in alongside Chase right away.
Cleveland Browns
Sign Tyrod Taylor
The Browns are another team that was nearly doomed by a lack of a competent backup quarterback, and counting on another absurd Joe Flacco run isn’t wise. Enter Taylor, who showed enough in New York to prove he can still be relevant in this league, for his second run in Cleveland.
Sign Noah Brown
The down-the-stretch surge by David Njoku last year showed that the Browns have their 1-2 punch at pass-catcher set, with Njoku and Amari Cooper. Assuming Nick Chubb is back healthy, he should again be the star ball carrier. So this offense is actually fairly set. But Brown showed flashes in Houston last year, and giving him a chance to be the WR2 alongside Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman is a low-risk play with fair upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sign Kirk Cousins
Obviously we’ll need some assurance Cousins will return healthy, but this Steelers team desperately needs a competent quarterback, which they haven’t had since Ben Roethlisberger’s … fourth-to-last season? Let Cousins use all these weapons.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Sign Austin Ekeler
Devin Singletary kind of saved the Texans’ bacon last year after Dameon Pierce failed to repeat his strong rookie campaign. But he’s heading back into free agency. Ekeler’s days as the possible overall RB1 are probably behind him, but if Pierce can bounce back much, the two of them could be a fair weapon for an up-and-coming Texans team.
Re-sign Dalton Schultz
Maybe they don’t even need to! Brevin Jordan is only 23! But Schultz was a core piece of this offense last year, and it makes sense for all parties to run it back.
Indianapolis Colts
Re-sign Michael Pittman
Maybe the Colts slap Pittman with the franchise tag instead. Either way, letting one of only seven receivers who have been top 20 in PPR each of the last three years go would be a wild mistake for a team that needs to give their lightly experienced QB more weapons.
Sign Sam Darnold
We just spent a year seeing how important a competent backup quarterback can be, and that might not be truer anywhere than in Indianapolis.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sign Jonah Williams
The Jaguars aren’t seriously hurting for weapons, even if Calvin Ridley leaves in free agency. But they need line help, and while Williams slipped in his move to right tackle in Cincinnati, he was also clearly unhappy as a Bengal. Start him over in his correct position.
Sign J.K. Dobbins
After two huge injuries, including the most recent one being a torn Achilles that has ruined careers, Dobbins will need to take time rebuilding his value. The Tank Bigsby experiment didn’t produce much last year, so let’s let him back up Travis Etienne for a year.
Tennessee Titans
Draft Joe Alt (1.07)
Having the best O-line coach in the league in Bill Callahan come over to join his son in Tennessee will help, but do you know what will help even more? Good linemen. And Alt is the best in this year’s draft.
Draft Adonai Mitchell (2.38)
The Titans only have one pick in the first round this year, and if that doesn’t go to the offensive lineman I might drive to Tennessee to yell at them myself. But the team also needs some pass-catchers, with DeAndre Hopkins (a) their only good receiver and (b) 32 in June. Use their second-rounder on Mitchell out of Texas.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Sign Jacoby Brissett
Draft JJ McCarthy at 1.12
The Broncos don’t have the draft capital to go up and get one of the top three in this year’s draft, even if they found a willing seller. But with Russell Wilson certainly bound for elsewhere (more on that momentarily), they have to do something. McCarthy might not be ready to start right away (he’s only 21, and just barely that), but with the right coaching he could be a down-the-road answer, and we already know Brissett is one of the league’s best backups with the option to start for a while until McCarthy is ready.
Sign Ezekiel Elliott
The Broncos struggled to incorporate a No. 2 back behind Javonte Williams last year, with neither Samaje Perine nor Jaleel McLaughlin offering much consistency. And Williams somehow made it nearly two full years (from Dec. 26, 2021, to Dec. 10, 2023) without a rushing score. Bring in Zeke, who showed to still have something to offer in New England and could be a better fit than Perine proved to be.
Trade Jerry Jeudy to the Patriots for 4.104
This is more about clearing space in Denver, who can roll with Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and (if he returns healthy) Tim Patrick, and pick up a needed draft pick in the process.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sign Tee Higgins
Higgins is unlikely to return to Cincinnati, and while Rashee Rice has shown he can definitely be the WR1, the WR2 right now is “maybe you!” Give Higgins to Patrick Mahomes and happy times will ensue.
Draft Jamari Thrash (3.95)
But wait, there’s more! The Chiefs would do well to use their earliest picks to fortify the offensive line and add to the defense, but in the third round, they could take a shot on Thrash, who is old for a rookie receiver (24 in December) but makes sense as a Day 2 lottery ticket for a team that needs multiple new receivers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Sign Russell Wilson
The Raiders were on Wilson’s can-be-traded-to list during his Seattle tenure, so they should take a shot on him a couple of years later. Aidan O’Connell certainly isn’t the answer, and the Raiders likely can’t get up to the top of the draft to get the big-name rookies. Wilson showed enough in Denver last year to be a starter still.
Do not let Davante Adams leave
Maybe this isn’t even on the table, but there have been enough “Davante reunited with Aaron Rodgers?” murmurs that I just want to mention it. The Raiders could have an explosive offense with Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Zamir White (assuming Josh Jacobs leaves). But heading it up with Meyers, White and [question mark] is a much tougher road.
Los Angeles Chargers
Trade 1.05 to Bills for 1.28, 3.99 and 2025 second
The Chargers could use the fifth overall pick to get a receiver or another weapon, but this is a team that has little in the way of sure things beyond Justin Herbert and Rashawn Slater. Better to add pieces and options that can jumpstart the Harbaugh tenure.
Draft Amarius Mims (1.28)
Slater is an excellent lineman, but lines need five guys, and the Chargers have one (two if Corey Linsley returns healthy, but that seems unfortunately unlikely). Mims should be able to start opposite Slater right away.
Draft Blake Corum (3.69)
Sometimes the “coach brings in guys he already knows” narrative is overblown, but sometimes it isn’t. Corum thrived under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and with Austin Ekeler almost sure of moving on, he could be the starter right away under his old coach in the NFL.
Sign Curtis Samuel
At his best, Samuel is a versatile weapon who can be used all over the field — he had 97 targets and 41 rush attempts in 2020, 92 and 38 in 2022. For a Chargers team that needs multiple pieces, why not try to get them all in one guy? With Keenan Allen, a hopefully healed Mike Williams and a hopefully healthy Quentin Johnston, Samuel wouldn’t have to be the No. 1 or close, but he could be a heck of a gadget.
