Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With the Super Bowl in the rearview, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season. (No I’m not letting the season breathe, this is way more fun.)
Every offseason, my first exercise is trying to sketch out an idea of what the offseason might look like. Obviously there’s more than a little fan fiction involved, but the process really gives a look at what resources are plentiful in a given offseason and what are scarce.
It’s an exercise, but a productive one: Over the next two days, I’ll break down my fantasy football wish list for the 2024 offseason. It’s one thing to say, for example, that a given team needs a quarterback or a running back. It’s another thing entirely to look at the possibilities and realize that not everyone can get Caleb Williams or Saquon Barkley — someone is going to have to settle for Jacoby Brissett or Gus Edwards. Like a jigsaw puzzle where there are many different possible pictures but still only a handful of ways for the pieces to go together.
In last year’s edition of this exercise, we pegged the Ravens drafting Zay Flowers and the Chargers drafting Quentin Johnston. We also sent Jahmyr Gibbs to Cincinnati (near the end of the second round, no less) and tried to trade Chris Godwin from Tampa to New England. It won’t be perfect. But it is a heck of a starting spot for “How could/should the offseason go?”
Remember, this is for fantasy football, so no defensive players here. AFC Monday, NFC today.
Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Sign D’Andre Swift and Gus Edwards
The Tony Pollard-as-the-starter era in Dallas didn’t really work out, and while there’s still plenty of an argument that he’s good enough to be the No. 1, from here it feels like a new start might be best for all concerned. That leaves the backfield vacant in Dallas, so let’s give them a 1-2 thunder-and-lightning punch where Swift doesn’t have to command a bell cow-like load while Edwards can do goal-line stuff and leave the varied skill set to his more wiry teammate.
Re-sign Tyron Smith
Smith is 33 now, and he’s missed multiple games each of the last eight seasons. But he’s still an elite left tackle, and he’s such a legacy in Dallas that the team has to bring him back to continue the tenure.
New York Giants
Draft Rome Odunze (1.06)
Draft Michael Penix (2.39)
Draft Audric Estime (4.107)
The Giants offense needs to start over. The Daniel Jones extension got off to about the worst start possible, all the new names at receiver last year crashed and burned, and Saquon Barkley is entering free agency and would probably need a second franchise tag to stick around (technically he didn’t play under the tag, but you get the idea). So let’s give them new weapons at all three positions. Odunze immediately becomes the WR1 in New York, and while Penix probably shouldn’t start right away, he can back Jones up and be ready to replace him if Jones is more 2023 than 2022. And with no obvious guaranteed starter at running back available in the draft, the Giants could wait until Day 3 and get a guy in Estime who is a good ball carrier but doesn’t offer much as a receiver, which brings us to…
Sign Antonio Gibson
The Giants could roll out a combo of Estime and Gibson and find success similar to how the Commanders did with Gibson and Brian Robinson last year. And if Estime crashes and burns, we’ve seen enough out of Gibson that he can be the all-purpose No. 1 in a pinch.
Philadelphia Eagles
Sign Josh Jacobs
D’Andre Swift had his moments last year, but by the end of the year the team didn’t have much of a running game to speak of. Jacobs seems unlikely to return to Las Vegas after agreeing to a deal last year under the duress of the franchise tag, with Zamir White thriving in Jacobs’ absence down the stretch. So let’s give the Eagles much closer to a sure thing at running back to go along with Jalen Hurts and their receiving weapons.
Washington Commanders
Draft Drake Maye (1.02)
Even with Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson likely leaving, the Commanders aren’t desperate at the skill positions. Sure, they could use a new No. 2 back or another pass-catcher (especially at tight end), but there’s no gaping hole there. But obviously, the team needs an overhaul at quarterback, and having the second overall pick is a very easy way to do that.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Trade Justin Fields to Falcons for 2.43 and a 2025 third
Draft Caleb Williams (1.01)
Obviously, this is the biggest storyline heading into the offseason. And I could easily draw up a scenario where the Bears deal the first pick for a total haul and use that haul to surround Fields with a wealth of new weaponry. And maybe they should! But I think it makes sense for the team to start the rookie contract clock over with a new face. Williams would rejuvenate the Bears base right away, and he could start hot throwing to DJ Moore and …
Sign Marquise Brown
Brown’s been miscast as a No. 1 receiver for the entirety of his career so far other than a chunk of the middle of 2022 when DeAndre Hopkins returned from suspension. But as a flashy No. 2 who can let the No. 1 thrive while he works as the speedster, he’s still got legs. Put him alongside Moore and the Bears would have their best receiver duo since Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.
Draft Olumuyiwa Fashanu (1.09)
The Bears need multiple new offensive linemen this offseason, but starting with the Penn State tackle is the right first move. Give the new rookie quarterback as much protection as possible.
Detroit Lions
Sign Calvin Ridley
The Lions have their offensive line. They have their backfield. They have a quarterback, a WR1 and a flashy TE1. But Jameson Williams as the No. 2 receiver is still a big question mark, and we saw Josh Reynolds struggle in their season-ending loss in the Conference Championship. In Jacksonville, Ridley didn’t thrive as the No. 1, but he had his moments, and he wouldn’t have to dominate with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta there. This would immediately become one of the best group of pass-catchers in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers
Draft Jonathon Brooks (2.58)
Brooks could have been a top-of-the-second-round pick, if not earlier, if not for his November ACL injury. But he’s still got plenty of upside once he’s healthy. Aaron Jones turns 30 in December, but he’s still put up at least 4.6 yards per carry every year of his career, so he’s just fine to be the No. 1 in 2024. Brooks can come back slowly from his injury, operate as a high-upside No. 2 down the stretch, and then be ready to take over whenever Jones has to hand the reins.
Minnesota Vikings
Trade 1.11 to Seahawks for 1.16 and 3.76
Draft Bo Nix (1.16)
I’ll explain the Seahawks part of this trade below. For the Vikings, the trade lets them add a resource later in the draft without costing them the opportunity to get Nix, who could immediately slot in as their new starter with Kirk Cousins entering free agency. Nix will be 24 when the season starts, so he won’t necessarily need much time to ease into the league, and throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson is a great way to start a career.
Sign Ryan Tannehill
Short and sweet: Tannehill might be done as a starter, but he still has value as a high-floor backup, and if Nix struggles or gets hurt, Tannehill is more competent than the Jaren Hall/Joshua Dobbs/Nick Mullens crew was last year.
Sign Devin Singletary
Just like last year, Singletary can land somewhere as the No. 2 back with a chance to take over as the No. 1 if things don’t work out. Minnesota doesn’t need to spend big at running back, but taking more lottery tickets would be wise.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Trade 2.43 and a 2025 third to Bears for Justin Fields
The Falcons are done at running back. They’re done at tight end. They have their WR1, and while they could probably stand to upgrade the WR2 slot, the clear and obvious question for the team this offseason is who will be under center. I would comfortably bet they’ve already engaged the Bears in some sort of conversation, and I bet it started with the Falcons asking about the 1.01 pick, but it seems more likely they give up slightly less and get Fields, who immediately slots in as the starter and has far and away the best weaponry of his career.
Carolina Panthers
Sign Tony Pollard
Chuba Hubbard has shown enough in his career to be a relevant part of a backfield but not enough to be the primary part. And Miles Sanders was an unmitigated disaster. So the Panthers, obviously a team (owner) that likes to make a splash, should get a complement/primary piece of the backfield, and Pollard is a flashy piece who could also use a change of scenery. Let him be the starter, but keep Hubbard around to spell him fairly often.
Sign Jauan Jennings
The Panthers have a lot of needs and no first-round pick, which is a tough spot to be in. They might struggle to shop in the top of the WR market, and they can’t get the top guys in the draft. So roll back Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo for one more year and bring in Jauan Jennings, who has plenty of experience in a smart offense but has always been stuck behind his big-name teammates. He won’t fix everything, but he’ll help.
Draft Troy Fautanu (2.33)
Sign Kevin Dotson
Bryce Young needs so much help this offseason, and the team’s lack of draft resources means they likely can’t address them all at once. But I’m most interested in bolstering a line that was a huge disappointment in 2023, and that means using the Panthers’ only pick in the first two rounds on Fautanu and signing Dotson, who thrived with the Rams last year.
New Orleans Saints
Draft J.C. Latham (1.14)
After years of a strong offensive line being the foundation of the Saints offense, the unit has started to fall apart in recent seasons. The Alabama product Latham could help jumpstart the line’s rebuild in a way Trevor Penning was supposed to do two years ago.
Draft Spencer Rattler (5.148)
Derek Carr is going to be the starter in New Orleans again, and the team doesn’t really have a need at the other skill positions. But Carr was a disappointment in his first Saints year and will be 33 when the season starts. The Saints shouldn’t be trying to replace him or use a top resource on a quarterback, but Rattler — who was seen as the potential first overall pick a few years ago — could be a high-upside, low-risk Day 3 flyer who can be a project while Carr’s tenure winds down.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Re-sign Baker Mayfield
Mayfield rebuilt his career and value in 2023, and the Buccaneers would be well served to keep him around rather than trying to do that again.
Draft Ladd McConkey (1.26)
With Mike Evans hitting free agency (and, in this exercise, landing with the Jets), Chris Godwin becomes the new No. 1 receiver in Tampa. Trey Palmer and returning-from-injury Russell Gage aren’t a terrible set of next men up. But bring in Georgia’s McConkey as the immediate No. 2, and maybe it isn’t Evans/Godwin all over again, but it’s a perfectly capable receiving corps.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Draft Marvin Harrison (1.04)
The Cardinals desperately need a new No. 1 receiver, and Harrison is the best rookie receiver entering the league since at least Ja’Marr Chase, if not even further back. This is a perfect fit.
Draft Trey Benson (3.71)
The Cardinals have a load of needs, especially on defense, but luckily they also have a load of draft picks, with two first-round picks, six in Days 1 and 2 combined and 12 total. With fewer picks, I wouldn’t want them to burn one on the backfield, but with 12 they can afford to do so. James Conner is still good, but he’s never played a full season, and he’s missed multiple games every year but one. He also just had his first career 1,000-yard season and will be 29 when the season starts. Let’s bring in Benson to be the No. 2 with the potential to start whenever called upon.
Los Angeles Rams
Sign Noah Fant
Tyler Higbee is almost certainly going to be late to the season after a playoff torn ACL, and even when he does return, his career reputation is almost entirely tied to his ridiculous stretch to end 2019, when he had 43 receptions on 56 targets for 522 yards in Weeks 13-17. He had at least 84 yards in each of those five games and has only reached that mark once in 68 games since. Enter Noah Fant, who has never fulfilled his first-round draft potential but can offer a bit in the passing game while also being a much better pass-blocker than Higbee.
Draft Bucky Irving (3.106)
The Rams are going to roll with Kyren Williams as their RB1 and didn’t appear to care about giving him every bit of work he could handle last year, but when Williams went down for a while in the middle of the season, Los Angeles had no idea what to do with the running game. Irving might not be an RB1 candidate, but he’s better than the Royce Freeman/Zach Evans/Darrell Henderson riffraff they had last year.
San Francisco 49ers
Draft Tyler Guyton (1.31)
Sign Connor Williams
Trent Williams is still a machine, but eventually he’s got to start wearing down, and the line around him wasn’t much to speak of last year. The 49ers have all the weapons, they just need to start bolstering the foundation. A first-round tackle and a top-10 center by PFF grades would be a heck of a start.
Seattle Seahawks
Trade 1.16 and 3.76 to Vikings for 1.11
Draft Brock Bowers (1.11)
Bowers has the chance to be an electric tight end from Day 1. His problem is the teams picking early in the draft either don’t need a tight end, need something else (namely a quarterback) even more or, in the case of the Chargers, would be better served to trade down and get more pieces. So if he starts to fall, the Seahawks should see it happening and swoop up to get him to replace the mishmash of Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson that didn’t do much last year. Geno Smith slid a little in 2023 after his big 2022, but throwing to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Bowers could help him rise again.
