First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
I’m currently working on my 22nd Super Bowl preview. That should run in the middle of next week, a few days before Super Bowl Sunday, but this means waiting more than a week before unveiling all the stat tidbits that get you ready for the big matchup. It was one thing when I was the only person on the Internet doing a Super Bowl preview packed with advanced stats. Now you can get all kinds of advanced metrics from all kinds of websites. So I now produce a pre-preview each year to get you ready for the Super Bowl hype. This is just me emptying my notebook witha few of the cool stat splits that I’ve found while preparing our Super Bowl LIX preview. These stats will all appear again when we get to the actual Super Bowl preview next week.
1) The big issue with the Chiefs is the question of whether they are holding back in the regular season and then raising their game in the playoffs. Yes, they went 15-2 this season, but we all know that they won a ridiculous number of close games and finished just eighth in DVOA for the regular season (although this was sixth before the ridiculous Week 18 game where they rolled over and played dead against the Broncos.)
It is true that the Chiefs raise their game in the playoffs. The question is whether that’s a “real” skill. Are the Chiefs going to be better in the playoffs forever, because it’s something that is intrinsic to how they play the game? Or have they effectively just flipped a coin heads seven times in a row, and it’s just random chance because sometimes you are going to play better in the postseason and sometimes you are going to play worse?
Here are the numbers for the last seven years. The regular-season numbers here include games where the Chiefs sat starters, such as Week 18 this year.
| Chiefs DVOA, Reg Season vs. Playoffs, 2018-2024 | |||||
| Year | G | Reg Sea Offense |
Playoffs Offense |
Reg Sea Defense |
Playoffs Defense |
| 2018 | 2 | 33.1% | 11.8% | 3.9% | -13.3% |
| 2019 | 3 | 21.3% | 47.5% | -5.1% | -4.1% |
| 2020 | 3 | 21.2% | 17.1% | -0.7% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 3 | 19.1% | 39.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 3 | 25.6% | 31.3% | -2.0% | -9.6% |
| 2023 | 4 | 10.0% | 21.0% | -5.0% | -26.7% |
| 2024 | 2 | 10.8% | 32.5% | -2.7% | -7.7% |
| WEI AVG | 20 | 20.2% | 29.0% | -1.3% | -12.0% |
2) A big story in this game is going to be the battle of the two defensive coordinators, Vic Fangio for the Eagles and Steve Spagnuolo for the Chiefs. It’s an interesting matchup in part because they play different styles. Fangio doesn’t blitz as much as other coordinators, while Spagnuolo is known for his great blitz design and willingness to send extra pass rushers.
Jalen Hurts ranked only 16th in DVOA against the blitz and was among the most blitzed quarterbacks in the NFL (31.3% of dropbacks, seventh). Patrick Mahomes was 11th in DVOA against the blitz in the regular season (13.0%) but has 69.3% DVOA against the blitz in the playoffs (10-of-15, 157 yards). However, Philadelphia was only 26th in blitz rate during the regular season.
3) Fangio is known for playing two high safeties but that was not the predominent style for the Eagles defense this season. FTN Data charting marked the Eagles playing single-high safety 62% of the time, which was eighth in the league. Based on what we know about Mahomes this season, the Eagles definitely want to go back to playing more two-high coverage in this game. Mahomes was 23rd in DVOA against two-high coverage (-6.0%) but sixth in DVOA against single-high coverage (19.5%). Mahomes’ average depth of target was relatively low against both types of coverage: 5.0 yards against two- high (36th) and 7.6 yards against single-high (32nd).
The Eagles have been just as good with two high safeties this season, even though they have played more single-high safety coverage.
4) You may have seen a stat that Mahomes has a career 8-0 record against Fangio defenses. This is true! However, that doesn’t mean that Mahomes had eight great games against Fangio defenses. In four of the eight games, Mahomes had less than 6.5 net yards per pass. In another game, Week 7 of 2019, Mahomes only threw 11 passes, completing 10 of them, with 76 yards before he was injured (the famous quarterback sneak injury, which is the reason Mahomes never runs the sneak anymore) and Matt Moore replaced him for the second half.
In addition, Fangio’s defenses that faced Mahomes in the past were not anywhere near as good as the Eagles defense that ranked No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 against the pass. When Fangio was head coach for the Broncos from 2019 through 2021 and faced Mahomes twice each season, those defenses ranked 13th, 12th, and 19th in pass defense DVOA. The 2023 Dolphins defense faced Mahomes in both the regular season and postseason but ranked only 22nd in pass defense DVOA that season.
One thing to watch for is that Mahomes did get to use his legs in a few of those Fangio games. He’s been scrambling more often this postseason, and in four of those eight games against Fangio defenses, Mahomes had at least 27 yards rushing.
5) Speaking of scrambles, the Chiefs faced a league-high 50 scrambles during the regular season allowing 7.5 yards per carry (60% success rate). Will Jalen Hurts scramble? Hurts ranked only 11th in DYAR on scrambles, with 39 scrambles in the regular season for 365 yards and a 64% success rate.
6) The Chiefs were very strong against the run this year, countering one of the Eagles’ most significant strengths. The Eagles ranked fourth in second-level yards per carry (5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and second in open-field yards per carry (11+ yards past the line of scrimmage). Including the playoffs, they ranked second in average yards before contact and ninth in explosive rate.
The Chiefs defense was second this year in allowing the fewest second-level yards and open-field yards per carry. They allowed the third-lowest explosie run rate and ranked fifth in preventing average yards before contract.
7) Both the Chiefs (22nd) and Eagles (24th) were relatively weak against No. 1 receivers this year, so this may be a big game for A.J. Brown and Xavier Worthy. It is not as likely to be a big game for Travis Kelce, as the Eagles ranked third in DVOA against tight ends.
8) The Eagles had the No. 1 defense against both middle and deep passes. Mahomes had only 22% DVOA on deep passes during the regular season (NFL average is 53%).
9) As great as the Eagles were against the pass all year, they had one place where they struggled to contain the pass: the red zone. The Eagles were 19th against the pass in the red zone but the best run defense in the NFL. The Chiefs, who were usually better against the run, were the opposite! The Chiefs were the best defense against the pass in the red zone but ranked 16th against red zone runs.
10) Both of these teams were slightly above average in special teams but the big issue is Eagles kicker Jake Elliott, who went 1-for-7 from 50 or more yards this year and then missed another 54-yard attempt in the NFC Championship Game. He was almost automatic from inside 50, but if the Eagles can’t trust him to hit a 52-yarder if it’s fourth-and-12 from the 34-yard line, that’s a problem. You don’t want to be punting but you don’t want to be giving Mahomes the ball on the 42 with a miss.
I’ll have a lot more to say in my official Super Bowl preview coming next week. Remember that you can look through a lot of these stats yourself with an FTN StatsHub subscription!
