Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 Picks
Welcome to Week 4 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Relationship Between DVOA and Fantasy Football Value
I was tasked with writing something DVOA-related for FTN here, so I thought I’d start off with something, well, simple. What’s the relationship between DVOA and fantasy football value? Using the revolutionary Fantasy Wins Added metric — combined with the even more revolutionary DVOA metric — we can finally answer that question in the best […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
How the Browns Defense is Dominating the NFL
In an NFL season already jam-packed with storylines through three weeks, it can be tough to keep up on all the goings-on around the league. Lost in the Miami Dolphins’ offensive explosion, the complete collapse of the Chicago Bears, and the latest Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce updates, the Cleveland Browns defense is putting on a historic […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
History of the DVOA Bowl
The biggest game of Week 4 features a division battle between the Buffalo Bills, coming off two dominating blowout victories, against the Miami Dolphins, who just put up a ridiculous 70 points on Denver last week. You don’t need advanced stats to tell you that this is a great matchup, but they’ll tell you that […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
C.J. Stroud: Optimism for the Houston Texans
With both Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young missing Week 3 with injuries, all attention in the rookie quarterback race was on C.J. Stroud. Honestly, it felt like a minor miracle that Stroud was healthy, too. Entering last week, Stroud had been sacked 11 times and hit 19 times, tied for most in the league. Stroud […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 DVOA: Miami Dolphins Break Offensive Records
The Miami Dolphins offense is a steamroller. You will not be surprised to learn that the Dolphins now have the best offensive DVOA we’ve ever measured through three games. But you might be surprised by: Just how much the Dolphins are ahead of every other team in DVOA history; Yet the Dolphins did not have […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 Quick Reads: Off the Achane
Here’s a special delayed Quick Reads for Week 3, since I was off yesterday for the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Just going to run the table of the best and worst DYAR with a couple of comments: As of now, De’Von Achane has the No. 4 best rookie running back game in DYAR history. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 Picks
Welcome to Week 3 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defense is Killing the Chargers
If you asked Brandon Staley what’s been holding this Chargers team back in their 0-2 start to the season, there’s a long list of answers he could rattle off. He dropped about a half dozen during his Week 2 postgame press conference: not protecting the passer, allowing deep passes, third-down penalties, inability to run the […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
What If Arizona Doesn’t Completely Suck?
There are a few surprises if you look at this week’s DVOA ratings, but the biggest surprise of the year is probably sitting at No. 18. There you’ll find the Arizona Cardinals, currently the second-highest 0-2 team behind the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals were supposed to be completely tanking this season, but they’ve played two […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Do We Believe in Puka Nacua?
On Sunday, Rams rookie receiver Puka Nacua broke a record you had definitely heard about before that afternoon. His 25 receptions through two games are the most ever to start an NFL career, taking the crown from Earl Cooper of the 1980 San Francisco 49ers. He has more catches than Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 DVOA: Dallas Cowboys and the Best Defensive Starts Ever
The Dallas Cowboys are kicking ass and taking names. They started out with a 40-0 blowout against the New York Giants, and they followed up with a dominating 30-10 win over the New York Jets. The Cowboys are historically great on defense and are enjoying the best start of any Cowboys team in the last […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 Quick Reads: The Tua Gap
Updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 9:30 am EDT. Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had a good Week 2 game. It wasn’t a great game, although the Miami offense certainly looked unstoppable at times. Other times, the Patriots defense stopped them. Tagovailoa ended the week with 119 passing DYAR, ranked seventh among […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 Picks
Welcome to Week 2 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Does Bengals’ Week 1 Collapse Hold Up Historically?
The second week of September is an awkward time for losing teams in the NFL. To some, kicking the season off 0-1 can be easily brushed off. “We’ve got a whole season ahead of us. Burn the tape. Let’s clean it up at practice on Wednesday. We’re on to Week 2.” On the other hand, […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Tyreek Hill and the Fun of On Pace Stats
Week 1 is in the books, and National Jump to Conclusions Week is in full swing. Every year, going from zero games played to one sets off wild speculation and immediate hot takes, forgetting entirely that at this point last season we had ‘learned’ that the big-name additions to the Los Angeles Chargers defense would […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 DVOA: Dominant Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2023 season as the top team in our DVOA projections, surprising a lot of people. Then the Cowboys went out and whuped up on the New York Giants by the score of 40-0. So it’s no surprise that the Cowboys are also No. 1 in the actual DVOA ratings after […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 Quick Reads: Tua’s Big Day
NOTE: Updated with Monday Night Football at 11am EDT. Welcome to Quick Reads! For readers who are new to my work and my stats, this is a weekly column where I will talk about the best and worst performances of the week according to my DYAR stats. That’s Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, the “total” stat […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 Picks
Welcome to Week 1 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Dallas Cowboys Brought the (Rate of Adjusted) Pressure in 2022
This is a guest column from Ajit Kirpekar. Better late than never, let’s look at 2022 Rate of Adjusted Pressure (RAP) numbers. For those unfamiliar, Rate of Adjusted Pressure is an opponent-adjusted metric for measuring a team’s success at generating or avoiding pressure. It’s calculated using a machine learning model that first predicts the probability […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Playoff Odds as of September 8
We’re still working on a permanent home page for the DVOA playoff odds report but in the meantime, we wanted to share with our readers all the (almost) preseason odds. There are a couple of differences between these odds and those from the 2023 preseason projections article. Thursday night’s Detroit win over Kansas City is […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Predicting 2023 Stat Leaders
Bryan Knowles: Welcome back to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA preseason picks! Earlier this week, we looked at our best bets for the NFL’s end-of-season awards. Today, we’re going a little more objective, predicting the leaders in the major statistical categories. Voters might take away a well-deserved MVP or DPOY campaign. But the only one who can take […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 DVOA Projections
Here are my DVOA projections for 2023, updated from the season forecasts in FTN Football Almanac 2023. For those new to my work since it began appearing on FTN Network, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. Note that there’s a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. The DVOA ratings that appear on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Preseason Award Picks
Bryan Knowles: This looks…familiar. Vaguely familiar, at any rate. Welcome friends old and new to the FTN DVOA preseason award picks! For years at our previous home, we have gone through the NFL’s list of end-of-season awards, carefully pieced through all of our DVOA projections and data, used careful consideration to account for all possible […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Introducing DVOA v8.0
Warning! This article is going to get deep into the weeds on how DVOA works. If you’re a longtime FTN reader and new to my DVOA stats, beware! If you’re a longtime Football Outsiders reader and want to know about the latest version of DVOA, read on. The main goal behind DVOA v8.0 is to […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
2022 DVOA by Route Type
Fast receivers such as Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf win on curl routes by scaring defenders into playing off coverage. Amari Cooper and Garrett Wilson ate on slant routes despite not necessarily having the best quarterbacks. And receiver screens are generally bad – unless you are the Philadelphia Eagles. Those are some of the lessons […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Downloads
2024 DVOA Downloads Updated November 26 (Individual Defense updated November 26) Historical DVOA Archive Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1981-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Many Degrees of 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers
It’s that time of year again. Training camps have officially wrapped. 53-man rosters are (mostly) set. Now is the perfect time to draft your fantasy teams. The knowns are known, there are no more surprise preseason injuries to be had, and most starters can be sussed out by this point. All the information is available […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Diamonds (and Saints) in the Rough
The New Orleans Saints have a deep arsenal of weapons on offense, but only one football to go around. Although that’s a good thing for a team looking to return to the playoffs, it’s a headache for fantasy managers everywhere. Let’s try to sort out where some of those players fit in the fantasy pecking […]
Vincent Verhei
NFL
DVOA
Tyreek Hill Reigns Supreme with Route DVOA
When I first created my advanced stats DVOA and DYAR for receivers 20 years ago, there was a bit of a breakthrough about which plays we were counting. At the time, there wasn’t much of a concept of “targets” in the public data. Receivers were tracked by receptions and yards per reception. Official gamebooks did […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Best Team Money Can Buy
If you’re a regular at Over the Cap or Spotrac, then this one is for you. While every season brings with it its own sense of contract drama, the volume this year has been louder than usual. Running back value, in particular, has been a headline-driving force. Holdouts by Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, as […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Jimmy Garoppolo Does Not Like Pressure
It’s a big season for Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, and the other members of the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line. They’re under a lot of pressure to prevent pressure. What’s the reason? Look at the track record of new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s consistently been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league under […]
Aaron Schatz