Are Eagles the Next DVOA Underdog Super Bowl Champions?

Will the Eagles keep winning starts with how the Eagles keep winning – and the answer is … well, complicated. They have by no means dominated their opponents, culminating in a 15.6% DVOA for the season. This kind of DVOA gives them an outlook that falls well below the average expectation level for us Philadelphia fans:

So the question becomes – are they doomed for an early exit at the hands of San Francisco or, *gasp*, Dallas? Or is there something to the idea that Jalen Hurts and this team will always find a way?

What Makes the Eagles Different

There are two reasons for optimism in Philly, reasons why they could be the next DVOA underdog to win it all.

1. Coaching and injuries
2. Proof of concept (we’ve actually seen how good they can be)

Coaching and Injuries

After the Super Bowl loss, the Eagles lost both coordinators. While many, myself included, would argue that losing Jonathan Gannon to Arizona was addition by subtraction, the point here is that both Brian Johnson (new OC) and Sean Desai (new DC) are rookie coordinators. Thus, a learning curve isn’t just understandable, it’s expected. And both are showing signs of real prowess.

The Eagles passing offense has their two best games, by DVOA, in their last four and three of their four best in the same time frame. Brian Johnson deserves credit:

Meanwhile, Sean Desai has used a wider range of coverage schemes and gameplans in twelve weeks than we saw from Jonathan Gannon in two full seasons. His two most impressive performances have come against Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes, again something Jonathan Gannon never managed to do (slow down great QBs). 

Miami’s Week 7 pass DVOA of -1.4% remains their second worst of the season. Kansas City’s -10.3% pass DVOA in Week 11 is also their second worst of the season. Desai is aggressively searching for what works and learning as the season progresses, developing a deep and diverse toolshed, if you will:

Health has been a major factor, as well. The Eagles lost slot corner Avonte Maddox early in the season and dealt with overlapping injuries to Darius Slay, James Bradberry, Reed Blankenship, and other pieces of the secondary throughout the early and middle parts of the season.

On the offensive line, the right side has been banged up with a lengthy injury absence for Cam Jurgens and two absences for Lane Johnson (that would have been more for 99.9% of players). 

Of course, injuries can only be used as a reason for optimism if the team is getting healthier, which they are. Lane Johnson will return this week, Cam Jurgens returned a few weeks ago, and Dallas Goedert will be back for Dallas in Week 14 at the latest.

The secondary, outside of Maddox, is back to full strength and added All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to the mix in late October. Most importantly, the impact of these players is clear in the data. 

In their last three games, the Eagles’ pass defense has averaged a DVOA of -0.2%, an eight-percentage point improvement from their season average. In the game Lane Johnson got hurt and played only nine snaps, the team suffered its only loss, managing just 14 points against the New York Jets. It was their third worst offensive performance by DVOA.

Perhaps most significant of all, surprisingly, has been the presence or absence of Cam Jurgens.

Jurgens missed Weeks 5 through 9 and with him went the rushing offense of the Philadelphia Eagles. 

• With Jurgens: +17.8% rush DVOA
• Without Jurgens: -15.9% rush DVOA

With Jurgens, they’re the second-best rushing offense in the league. Without him, they’re 24th. 

Proof of Concept

When it matters most, the Eagles have been elite. Here are some situational DVOA rankings for the Eagles:

• 1st quarter: 9.4%, 15th
• 2nd quarter: -5.3%, 21st
• 1st half: 1.9%, 19th
   
• 3rd quarter: 39.5%, 1st
• 4th quarter/OT: 10.8%, 6th
• 2nd half: 25.7%, 2nd
• Late and close: 23.5%, 3rd

If you want an explanation for why it feels like the Eagles are “getting away with bad play” every week, it’s this. They consistently put themselves behind the eight ball, but execute down the stretch to get the win. Is it a sustainable formula? Probably not, but we know how good they can be because they keep showing us … when they need to. In the next two weeks (San Francisco and Dallas) as well as the postseason, hopefully “when they need to” begins with the opening kickoff.

However, it’s not just that they continue to play well in the second halves of these games, it’s that they find various ways of doing so. Let’s look at the four signature wins of late, against Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo.

Against Miami, the defense dominated in every way and carried a somewhat boring offense. Against Dallas, Jalen Hurts was dominant through the air, bailing out a defense that allowed Dak to do the same. Against Kansas City, the passing offense was nowhere to be found, so they won on the ground offensively and through the air defensively (rainy conditions probably played a role in this). And finally, the offense stepped up once again against Buffalo as the defense corrected their issues on the ground but allowed over 400 total Josh Allen yards.

This is the thing that makes Philly truly unique among the 15-20% DVOA teams. The only other teams that can beat you with any unit on any given day are the Ravens and 49ers, the best of the best by DVOA.

Take Jacksonville for example, the team tied with Philly at 15.6% overall DVOA. They don’t have a single rushing performance of 10% DVOA all season. If a defense contains or confuses Trevor Lawrence, or conditions keep him in check (like the PHI-KC game), they can’t turn to their ground game like Philly can. 

On the season, Jacksonville’s pass defense is better than Philly’s, -1.5% to Philly’s 7.5%. Yet, Philly has three instances of -25% pass defense DVOA or better, Jacksonville has just two. It’s a similar story on the ground. Jacksonville (-23.1%) slightly edges out Philly (-22.9%), but Philly has three instances of -50% rush defense DVOA or better, Jacksonville has just one. 

When the question is “how do you beat an elite team?”, the Eagles have all the answers, as they’ve shown throughout the gauntlet of their schedule.