Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens are the 11th-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games.
The 49ers have the best offense in the league with a very good defense. The Ravens have the best defense in the league with a very good offense.
Here are all the teams to ever put up DVOA over 40% through 12 games:
| Best Total DVOA Thru 12 Games, 1981-2023 | |||||||||||
| Year | Team | W-L | DVOA | Off | Rk | Def | Rk | ST | Rk | Final W-L |
Result |
| 2007 | NE | 12-0 | 59.9% | 41.2% | 1 | -12.4% | 4 | 6.3% | 4 | 16-0 | Lost SB |
| 1985 | CHI | 12-0 | 52.7% | 17.1% | 3 | -31.6% | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 15-1 | Won SB |
| 1998 | DEN | 12-0 | 49.7% | 36.0% | 1 | -9.1% | 6 | 4.6% | 2 | 14-2 | Won SB |
| 1991 | WAS | 11-1 | 48.2% | 21.1% | 2 | -18.9% | 3 | 8.2% | 1 | 14-2 | Won SB |
| 1995 | DAL | 10-2 | 45.4% | 34.6% | 1 | -6.8% | 10 | 4.0% | 5 | 12-4 | Won SB |
| 2018 | KC | 10-2 | 44.3% | 38.4% | 1 | 0.6% | 17 | 6.5% | 1 | 12-4 | Lost CCG |
| 2004 | PHI | 11-1 | 43.2% | 25.1% | 3 | -9.3% | 8 | 8.8% | 2 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| 2023 | SF | 9-3 | 43.0% | 32.8% | 1 | -11.1% | 4 | -1.9% | 27 | — | — |
| 2007 | DAL | 11-1 | 42.6% | 30.5% | 2 | -11.4% | 6 | 0.7% | 14 | 13-3 | Lost DIV |
| 1987 | SF* | 10-2 | 41.5% | 19.6% | 3 | -20.6% | 1 | 1.3% | 9 | 10-2 | Lost DIV |
| 2023 | BAL | 9-3 | 41.2% | 17.0% | 5 | -24.1% | 1 | 0.1% | 16 | — | — |
| 1994 | DAL | 10-2 | 40.9% | 22.6% | 1 | -14.4% | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 12-4 | Lost CCG |
| 2004 | NE | 11-1 | 40.3% | 18.5% | 5 | -20.2% | 2 | 1.6% | 12 | 14-2 | Won SB |
| 1995 | SF | 8-4 | 40.2% | 15.2% | 4 | -28.8% | 1 | -3.8% | 27 | 11-5 | Lost DIV |
| 1999 | STL | 10-2 | 40.1% | 17.8% | 4 | -16.1% | 2 | 6.2% | 3 | 13-3 | Won SB |
| *Does not include strikebreaker games. | |||||||||||
This was the fourth straight convincing win by the 49ers, bouncing back from a three-game losing streak when offensive stars such as Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Deebo Samuel were injured. The 49ers have big dominating wins over three other top-10 teams: the Eagles, the Cowboys, and the Jaguars. This is four straight games for San Francisco with DVOA over 50%, and six total on the season. The inconsistent Buffalo Bills have four such games, and the Baltimore Ravens have three, but no other team has two. Again, San Francisco has six games over 50% with two other games over 40%. They are clear Super Bowl favorites at this point.
Here’s the week-to-week graphic to show you how good the 49ers have been except during that three-game losing streak:
Kansas City remains at No. 3 despite a loss to Green Bay on Sunday night. They drop a little, but they are in the same place. Miami is up two spots to four after dominating the Washington Commanders and their terrible pass defense. Dallas drops a spot to fifth and Buffalo drops a spot to sixth. Detroit is seventh. Philadelphia moved down in DVOA but up one spot when Jacksonville lost to Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. The Jaguars are ninth and somehow the Steelers are still holding on to the 10th spot. The playoff odds report does have adjustments for the Jaguars and Steelers losing quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett for at least a couple of weeks each.
This is the first week that I’ve replaced DAVE on the table below with WEIGHTED DVOA, so that makes it a good time to look at which teams have the biggest difference between regular DVOA and weighted DVOA. Weighted DVOA gives more weight to recent games. Right now, for example, Weeks 9-13 are at full strength, and then weeks gradually decline in strength until you get to Week 1 at 40% strength. By the time we hit the end of the regular season, the first couple weeks will be gone from the weighted DVOA formula entirely.
Remember that weighted DVOA is agnostic about any team’s injury situation and how that might have affected trends. For example, the Ravens are slightly ahead of the 49ers in weighted DVOA. That’s because the 49ers had that three-game losing streak when a number of their offensive stars were injured, and it was between Week 6 and Week 8, which are still pretty important weeks in the weighted DVOA formula.
Looking at total DVOA, there’s no question the team that has improved the most over the course of the year. It’s the Denver Broncos, despite a poor offensive performance this week against Houston. The huge defensive turnaround is the major reason here. The Broncos go from -9.9% (22nd) in total DVOA to -3.8% (20h) in weighted DVOA. On defense, they go from 13.7% (31st) to 8.4% weighted (29th).
On offense, the biggest improvement belongs to Dallas, with a 3.8% gap between offensive DVOA and weighted offense. The Cowboys are followed by the Bengals (3.6%) and the Steelers (3.3%). The biggest declines belong to the New York Jets (-4.1%) and the Miami Dolphins (-4.0%).
As noted above, the biggest defensive improvement is in Denver. We’ve also seen defensive improvement from Miami (-3.8% — counteracting the decline of the offense) and Chicago (-3.1%). The biggest declines when we compare defensive DVOA to weighted defense belong to New Orleans (3.7%), Cleveland (3.7%), and Washington (3.0%).
There’s weighted DVOA for special teams too! The biggest improvement there belongs to the Los Angeles Chargers, who moved into the No. 1 spot in special teams this week. The biggest decline belongs to the New York Jets, even though they had a good special teams game in Week 13 and actually moved back up from 11th to sixth.
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 13 weeks of 2023. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
WEIGHTED DVOA gives more weight to recent games and less weight to early-season games to get a better idea of how teams are playing now.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
| 1 | SF | 43.0% | 2 | 43.4% | 2 | 9-3 | 32.8% | 1 | -12.1% | 4 | -1.9% | 27 |
| 2 | BAL | 41.2% | 1 | 43.9% | 1 | 9-3 | 17.0% | 5 | -24.1% | 1 | 0.1% | 16 |
| 3 | KC | 23.7% | 3 | 22.5% | 5 | 8-4 | 17.5% | 4 | -3.8% | 9 | 2.5% | 7 |
| 4 | MIA | 23.0% | 6 | 23.9% | 3 | 9-3 | 22.6% | 2 | -0.9% | 13 | -0.5% | 19 |
| 5 | DAL | 20.7% | 4 | 23.4% | 4 | 9-3 | 11.1% | 8 | -7.9% | 7 | 1.8% | 9 |
| 6 | BUF | 19.5% | 5 | 16.0% | 6 | 6-6 | 22.0% | 3 | 1.6% | 16 | -0.9% | 22 |
| 7 | DET | 18.5% | 7 | 15.3% | 7 | 9-3 | 15.5% | 6 | -2.7% | 10 | 0.3% | 15 |
| 8 | PHI | 11.8% | 9 | 11.3% | 9 | 10-2 | 11.4% | 7 | 3.4% | 21 | 3.8% | 2 |
| 9 | JAX | 11.4% | 8 | 10.1% | 10 | 8-4 | 1.5% | 15 | -7.9% | 6 | 2.0% | 8 |
| 10 | PIT | 9.2% | 10 | 11.9% | 8 | 7-5 | 0.7% | 18 | -9.2% | 5 | -0.7% | 20 |
| 11 | HOU | 7.5% | 12 | 8.7% | 11 | 7-5 | 7.5% | 11 | 0.0% | 15 | -0.1% | 18 |
| 12 | CLE | 6.1% | 11 | 2.7% | 15 | 7-5 | -13.6% | 27 | -18.3% | 2 | 1.3% | 12 |
| 13 | LAC | 5.8% | 13 | 6.2% | 12 | 5-7 | 8.4% | 10 | 6.9% | 28 | 4.4% | 1 |
| 14 | CIN | 1.8% | 16 | 4.8% | 13 | 6-6 | 5.5% | 13 | 6.5% | 27 | 2.8% | 3 |
| 15 | MIN | 1.5% | 15 | 2.3% | 16 | 6-6 | -2.4% | 19 | -7.4% | 8 | -3.4% | 30 |
| 16 | IND | 1.1% | 14 | 0.6% | 17 | 7-5 | 0.8% | 17 | -1.0% | 12 | -0.8% | 21 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
| 17 | GB | 0.7% | 19 | 3.6% | 14 | 6-6 | 6.0% | 12 | 2.5% | 18 | -2.9% | 29 |
| 18 | SEA | -0.6% | 17 | -2.0% | 18 | 6-6 | 2.5% | 14 | 4.6% | 24 | 1.5% | 10 |
| 19 | LAR | -1.4% | 20 | -3.6% | 19 | 6-6 | 8.7% | 9 | 3.0% | 19 | -7.2% | 32 |
| 20 | NO | -4.2% | 18 | -6.8% | 21 | 5-7 | -3.0% | 20 | 1.8% | 17 | 0.6% | 13 |
| 21 | TB | -6.2% | 21 | -7.6% | 22 | 5-7 | -5.1% | 21 | -0.2% | 14 | -1.3% | 24 |
| 22 | DEN | -9.9% | 22 | -3.8% | 20 | 6-6 | 1.2% | 16 | 13.7% | 31 | 2.7% | 4 |
| 23 | TEN | -12.0% | 23 | -12.9% | 24 | 4-8 | -6.7% | 22 | 3.5% | 22 | -1.7% | 26 |
| 24 | CHI | -15.0% | 24 | -11.4% | 23 | 4-8 | -10.1% | 25 | 3.0% | 20 | -2.0% | 28 |
| 25 | ATL | -15.5% | 26 | -14.0% | 25 | 6-6 | -8.6% | 24 | 5.1% | 25 | -1.7% | 25 |
| 26 | NE | -18.9% | 25 | -19.6% | 27 | 2-10 | -15.6% | 28 | -1.5% | 11 | -4.8% | 31 |
| 27 | LV | -19.1% | 28 | -17.5% | 26 | 5-7 | -16.0% | 29 | 3.7% | 23 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 28 | NYJ | -20.6% | 27 | -25.0% | 29 | 4-8 | -35.8% | 32 | -12.5% | 3 | 2.6% | 6 |
| 29 | ARI | -23.0% | 30 | -23.8% | 28 | 3-10 | -11.0% | 26 | 13.4% | 30 | 1.3% | 11 |
| 30 | WAS | -23.4% | 29 | -25.5% | 30 | 4-9 | -8.3% | 23 | 15.2% | 32 | 0.0% | 17 |
| 31 | CAR | -34.7% | 31 | -34.5% | 31 | 1-11 | -27.3% | 30 | 10.1% | 29 | 2.7% | 5 |
| 32 | NYG | -38.5% | 32 | -35.7% | 32 | 4-8 | -31.2% | 31 | 6.1% | 26 | -1.3% | 23 |
