Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
To be a fly on the wall in the New York Jets’ quarterback room.
They’re not content to just be the worst passing offense in football, with a -27.6% DVOA. Oh no. They’re not content to be pushing for the worst passing offense in franchise history, either, tied with the 1995 Boomer Esiason squad in the bad old Rich Kotite days. No, they had to burst into drama this last week.
The latest in the ongoing drama of New York’s ongoing implosion has been the will-they, won’t-they reinsertion of Zach Wilson into the starting lineup. Wilson, of course, was finally benched two weeks ago after reaching a nadir in the 32-6 loss to Buffalo and then demoted all the way to third string. Shockingly, the insertion of Tim Boyle, a player who had thrown 15 touchdowns and 35 interceptions in college and the pros combined, did not suddenly spark an offensive renaissance. Boyle, who’s greatest skill appears to be “knows Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett,” was not only benched this week, but outright released after putting up a -69.6% DVOA and -318 DYAR in just two starts.
Do the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian? No! They want to give Wilson a shot back under center. But, on Monday, The Athletic reported that Wilson was hesitant to get back under center, with some concern about getting injured behind the sieve that serves as the Jets’ offensive line. Cue ten thousand memes, mocking the idea that Wilson would turn down what could well be his last chance to start an NFL game. For what it’s worth, Robert Saleh has denied that there’s any reluctance from Wilson to get back in the lineup, and that he had not yet made a decision as to who would start this week against Houston. It’s likely what happened is that Wilson was debating the pros and cons of playing in a late-season game with zero playoff ramifications, risking injury before an offseason where he’ll likely be looking for a new job, and things got blown out of proportion. So, weird drama, but at most a 48-hour story that would fade into the background as the week went on.
That’s when Aaron Rodgers inserted himself into the story, throwing gasoline on the dying embers. Did Rodgers join Saleh in refuting the reports? No! He instead slammed the Jets franchise for the story leaking out in the first place. “Some conversations are only meant for certain people and shouldn’t leave the building,” Rodgers told Pat McAfee in an interview held in McAfee’s studio. He attacked the idea of journalists using sources to report news, wondering why someone would be willing to be a source and what they were gaining out of talking to the media. This is, of course, not the first time Rodgers has slammed the media in New York for reporting things based on unnamed sources; he slammed the media for reporting that he had given the Jets a ‘wish list’ of players he would like New York to sign for the season, shortly before the Jets did indeed sign former Rodgers teammates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.
So things are going great, clearly. At least the Jets are interesting while also being terrible. It is, sadly, something the franchise has gotten a lot of experience with over the past two decades, as they’ve stumbled from franchise savior to franchise savior with very little to show for it. Going back to 2005, the Jets have had two seasons where a qualified quarterback had a positive passing DVOA – Chad Pennington in his (first) Comeback Player of the Year season in 2006, and then Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015. Since then, the Jets have flirted with veterans like Rodgers, Brett Favre and Josh McCown. They’ve tried high-drafted rookies such as Wilson, Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and Sam Darnold. They’ve cycled through coach after coach, coordinator after coordinator, and yet cannot seem to string two consecutive solid passing seasons together to save their lives. Unless Brett Rypien comes in and has an amazing December, the Jets are pushing two decades of uncertainty and frustration at the quarterback position, with no immediate end in sight.
The Jets inability to settle things down under center is approaching historic proportions. We have DVOA going back to 1981, and in that 43-year stretch, only 11 teams have had a streak of even a dozen years without consecutive seasons that featured a quarterback with positive DVOA. It’s a litany of failure, and a list the Jets very much would like to get off as quickly as possible – that’s why they backed the Brinks truck up to bring in Rodgers, after all. Here is a quick look at the company the Jets are keeping.
11. 1997-2008 Baltimore Ravens (12 years)
Average Passing DVOA: 4.2%
Notable Quarterbacks: Kyle Boller, Steve McNair, Tony Banks, Elvis Grbac, Anthony Wright
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2006 McNair (9.2%)
You, too, can survive a quarterback drought! Just have one of the best defenses in NFL history lead you to a Super Bowl victory, and all will be well. 1997 saw Vinny Testaverde sign a big extension in Baltimore after four straight positive seasons for the Browns-slash-Ravens during their move to Maryland. He had led the league with 1,176 passing DYAR in 1996 and never sniffed that level again in a Ravens uniform. Testaverde was first benched for Eric Zeier, and then released after Baltimore signed Jim Harbaugh. Baltimore did occasionally get below average but still acceptable results from the likes of Elvis Grbac and Kyle Boller, but you have to wait until Joe Flacco’s second season in 2009 to find a quarterback on the positive side of the ledger on a consistent basis. Flacco may have only been elite in a meme sense, but he was the first Ravens QB since Testaverde to top 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in the same season, so he was a welcome breath of fresh air even before the Super Bowl run.
10. 2003-2014 Oakland Raiders (12 years)
Average Passing DVOA: -2.9%
Notable Quarterbacks: Kerry Collins, Carson Palmer, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, Andrew Walter
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2011 Palmer (2.5%)
Rich Gannon’s last healthy season was in 2002, with shoulder and neck injuries ending his career. Derek Carr was drafted in 2014 and quickly became a serviceable starter. In between, the Raiders trotted out a litany of overpaid veterans and the biggest draft bust of the last 25 years. Go big or go home, one supposes.
9. 1981-1992 Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts (12 years)
Average Passing DVOA: -7.7%
Notable Quarterbacks: Jack Trudeau, Mike Pagel, Gary Hogeboom, Bert Jones, Chris Chandler, John Elway, Art Schlichter
One-Off Positive Seasons: 1981 Jones (6.7%)*
Yeah, you saw that right – John Elway, notable Colts quarterback. For those of you who don’t know the story, Elway was drafted by in 1983 by the Colts despite telling them, beforehand, that he would not play for the team and would try his hand with the New York Yankees instead. Baltimore dealt him for Chris Hinton, Mark Hermann and Ron Solt, three players who were not, shall we say, as good as Elway. And so the quarterback drought continued until first Jeff George managed to put up one solid season before Jim Harbaugh took over the following year.
This may end up being 1982-1992 once we produce 1979-1980 ratings this offseason, because Bert Jones had a positive DVOA in 1981 and played about the same in 1980 as well.
8. 1994-2006 Arizona Cardinals (13 years)
Average Passing DVOA: 1.0%
Notable Quarterbacks: Jake Plummer, Josh McCown, Kent Graham, Dave Kreig, Matt Leinart
One-Off Positive Seasons: 1996 Boomer Esiason (6.6%), 1996 Graham (1.8%), 2001 Plummer (9.5%), 2005 Kurt Warner (8.2%)
This one is a bit odd, for a couple reasons. The Cardinals kept having flashes of competency throughout this period – Plummer was talented but frustrating, Esiason was an aging veteran who decided to leave the team rather than come back for another year, Warner was a former MVP who was involved in a quarterback battle with Matt Leinart for reasons which made a little bit of sense at the time and absolutely none today. And yet, at the same time, the Cardinals are being bailed out by the requirement to have any consecutive positive quarterbacks, rather than the same quarterback in two straight years. It’s two one-off seasons from Chris Chandler and Steve Beuerlein that start this run; to find two straight years of a quality Cardinals quarterback you have to go back to 1983-88 Neil Lomax in St. Louis. It’s been a long time in the desert for the Cards.
7. 1981-1993 Detroit Lions (13 years)
Average Passing DVOA: -2.9%
Notable Quarterbacks: Eric Hipple, Rodney Peete, Gary Daniels, Chuck Long, Erik Kramer, Andre Ware
Oh, there’s no telling how long this one actually stretches back. 1981 is where our data starts, but it’s not like the Lions were a passing powerhouse in the late ‘70s and just got bad when DVOA starts kicking in. You probably have to go back to Greg Landry to find a Lions quarterback with back-to-back positive seasons. You might have to go all the way back to Bobby Layne in the 1950s. If I were Barry Sanders, I’d retire early, too.
6. 2009-2021 Jacksonville Jaguars (13 years)
Average Passing DVOA: -5.5%
Notable Quarterbacks: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Gardner Minshew, Blaine Gabbert
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2017 Bortles (0.3%)
Get well soon, Trevor Lawrence. We’ve seen what Jacksonville’s offense looks like without you, and it was certainly not the Good Place. Between David Garrard’s last positive season in 2008 and Lawrence’s first year away from Urban Meyer, we had to sit through the Jaguars wasting nearly a full decade on Gabbert and Bortles. Gabbert is still last place on the all-time passing DYAR leaderboards. Bad times.
5. 2000-2015 Chicago Bears (15 Years)
Average Passing DVOA: 0.3%
Notable Quarterbacks: Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Jim Miller, Chris Chandler, Shane Matthews
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2013 Jay Cutler (5.5%), 2013 Josh McCown (32.1%)
Yes, the Bears have actually had above-average passing at some point in the past quarter century. You can extend this reign a bit if you require a team to have the same quarterback with positive DVOA two years in a row rather than just a quarterback; that would stretch back from Erik Kramer in 1997-98 to … well, today, actually, as Jay Cutler never put together back-to-back positive seasons in Chicago; he’s teaming up with a one-off Brian Hoyer season to end this run.
4. 1986-2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15 years)
Average Passing DVOA: 0.0%
Notable Quarterbacks: Vinny Testaverde, Trent Dilfer, Craig Erickson, Shaun King, Steve Young
One-Off Positive Seasons: 1987 Steve DeBerg (7.4%), 1994 Erickson (9.8%), 1997 Dilfer (5.4%)
Now that is a list of quarterbacks if I’ve ever seen one. Bookended by two all-time great journeymen in Steve DeBerg and Brad Johnson, the Buccaneers when I was growing up trotted out perhaps the most impressive list of names for any of these teams. Testaverde is the all-time stat compiler at quarterback, still 16th all-time with 46,233 yards. Dilfer led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory, so long as we use a very broad definition of the word ‘led’. Young, too, had a little success in the league, but he looked awful in Tampa Bay. It’s amazing what being surrounded by talented skill position players and a coach who knows what he’s doing can do to a quarterbacks’ numbers and oh no this is devolving into another Brock Purdy argument, let’s move on.
3. 2003-2019 Buffalo Bills (17 years)
Average Passing DVOA: 1.1%
Notable Quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, J.P. Losman, Drew Bledsoe, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2015 Taylor (9.8%)
Remember, Bills fans. As frustrating as it can be to watch Josh Allen freelance and throw interceptions, it can be so, so much worse. Between the…well, not ‘golden’ days of Doug Flutie and Drew Bledsoe, let’s call it a bronze age… and the birth of Good Allen in 2020 lies ruin and waste. And our list doesn’t even include the one-offs like Nathan Peterman! It’s been a frustrating season, for sure, but it could be…this.
2. 2005-2023 New York Jets (19 years)
Average Passing DVOA: -1.2%
Notable Quarterbacks: Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Zach Wilson, Geno Smith
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2006 Chad Pennington (10.1%), 2015 Fitzpatrick (3.5%)
And counting! Having three top-10 pick quarterback busts on this list is an impressive feat, for sure. And do we really want to bet on the odds of Rodgers coming back, having a good year in 2024, and then doing it again in 2025? At his age? With his health? This run may be far from over. And yet, they’re still miles behind…
1. 1999-2023 Cleveland Browns (25 years)
Average Passing DVOA: 0.4%
Notable Quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Derek Anderson, Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy, Brady Quinn, Johnny Manziel
One-Off Positive Seasons: 2007 Anderson (8.7%), 2018 Mayfield (8.1%), 2020 Mayfield (5.1%), 2022 Jacoby Brissett (13.0%)
The new Browns were formed in 1999. Since then, they have had only four seasons with a qualified quarterback with a positive passing DVOA. They have spent five first-round picks on quarterbacks, and signed Deshaun Watson to the largest contract in NFL history in terms of guaranteed money. Never has one team spent so much and accomplished so little. I’m sorry, Jets fans, but you have nothing on The Factory of Sadness.
