Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Football is a game of small sample sizes. While the NBA and NHL get to enjoy 82 games of action, and the real MLB diehards get double that, us NFL enthusiasts are stuck with just 17 games to make real, meaningful analysis. Even breaking down the game into its hyper-situational components can feel like panning for gold, separating a handful of flecks from a panful of dirt.
That’s the beauty of this exercise! The wealth of information covered by DVOA’s premium splits (downloadable for subscribers here each week) allow us to dive deep into the nitty gritty, breaking down the good, the bad, and the slightly ridiculous of this year’s NFL season. These splits can help us understand areas of overperformance, highlight overlooked outliers, and memorialize some of the less-remembered portions of the season.
Passing By Direction (DVOA)
At some point, you’ve just got to hand it to Brock Purdy. Breaking up passes by depth, Purdy seems like the shoo-in candidate to lead the league in short passing DVOA. Not only does his 53.6% short DVOA lead the league, it nearly laps second-place Josh Allen (29.1%). What isn’t as expected, though, is Purdy’s league-leading 147.0% deep DVOA. He barely edges out Dak Prescott (144.6%) for the crown. This isn’t a case of small sample size, either. Purdy’s 73 deep pass attempts are around league median, while his 20.3% deep throw rate is up near the top 10.
On the other end, nobody comes close to Mac Jones in terms of bad deep passing DVOA. Jones has a -50.4% deep passing DVOA in 2023. The next closest is Bryce Young at -12.4%. At least Jones can manage short game, posting an unimpressive-but-harmless 2.6% short passing DVOA. Young is at the bottom of the league with a -13.4% DVOA
If you want to see the Shanahan Effect in action, take a look at DVOA for passes to the middle of the field. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league with 106.7% DVOA. C.J. Stroud is right behind him at 89.9%. Purdy comes in at 65.1%, fifth-best. The common thread? Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik are direct hires from Kyle Shanahan’s staff. Oh, and who ranks third and fourth in middle-of-the-field DVOA? Kirk Cousins (83.3%) and Geno Smith (76.2%). Both Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) and Shane Waldron (Seahawks) were direct hires from Sean McVay.
Now, on to defense. Cleveland’s pass defense is the best in the league, but no team is impervious. When breaking it down by depth and direction, the Browns have a comical Achilles heel.
- Short Left: -29.2%
- Short Middle: -3.1%
- Short Right: -18.3%
- Deep Left: -55.2%
- Deep Middle: 133.8%
- Deep Right: -42.6%
Yes, this league-worst 133.8% DVOA allowed comes on a whopping nine pass plays. Of those nine, one was intercepted, four were completed, and two of those completions went for touchdowns of 70-plus yards. Those plays aren’t enough to knock Cleveland out of No. 1 in the league’s deep-passing defensive DVOA (-28.9%),in part because their deep left and deep right passing DVOA both lead the league. The second that 20-plus yard pass falls between the hashes, it’s over.
Dallas has a much less extreme version of this going on. None of their deep passing DVOA numbers are great. The Cowboys rank 19th on deep passing, but their league-leading short passing defense also gets beat in the middle.
- Short Left: -31.3%
- Short Middle: 13.2%
- Short Right: -36.2%
Nowhere near the worst short middle passing defense – that goes to New England – but the glaring weak spot is of note.
Defense By Receivers
Say what you want about Belichick’s later years, but the man knows how to shut down a primary weapon. The Patriots’ pass defense on the whole is 21st in the league. Just don’t tell your top receiver that.
- WR1: -31.2% (2nd)
- WR2: 9.1% (22nd)
- WR3: 35.4% (32nd)
- TE: -1.7% (14th)
- RB: 25.0% (28th)
Yes, New England is bottom-10 or worse against the rest of receivers and running backs, and they’re only just a bit better than average against tight ends. Against WR1s, though, only the Cleveland Browns are out-performing them.
The New York Giants are having the exact opposite problem. The defense is handling themselves pretty well from a passing perspective. New York’s 14th-ranked defensive passing DVOA is handling its assignments generally well. Most of their assignments, at least…
- WR1: 15.0% (25th)
- WR2: -22.7% (6th)
- WR3: -15.1% (6th)
- TE: -31.4% (1st)
- RB: -13.0% (9th)
The Giants’ lack of a true CB1 is gutting this team from being one of the better-performing pass defenses in the league.
Rushing By Direction (Adjusted Line Yards)
The Rams offense loves running it right up the gut. The Rams rushing offense isn’t incredible (by adjusted line yards) in most phases outside the middle.
- Left End: 3.87 (18th)
- Left Tackle: 3.56 (21st)
- Mid/Guard: 4.96 (1st)
- Right Tackle: 3.75 (24th)
- Right End: 4.31 (14th)
This is pretty much exclusively carrying the Rams run game, which ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. The transition to Kyren Williams as the lead back played a massive part in Los Angeles’ success in this department. 85 of Williams’ 159 attempts come on middle/guard runs. On those runs, he has averaged 5.02 yards per attempt and picked up six of his seven rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, Baltimore’s edges have been fantastic this season. Jadeveon Clowney and Odafe Oweh both rank in the top 15 among edges in ESPN’s pass rush win rate; the Ravens join Houston as the only two teams with multiple players featured in the top-15. Baltimore has struggled on the edges against the run, though. The Ravens have real solid adjusted line yards numbers: 15th on left tackle, ninth on mid/guard, and fifth on right tackle. On the ends, though, Baltimore is bottom-five on both sides of the ball. The Ravens rank 29th in adjusted line yards on the left end and 27th on the right end.
Adjusted Line Yards vs. Adjusted Sack Rate
It’s easy to think of “good” offensive lines as all-around good groups. Oh contraire! Run blocking and pass blocking are two very different skillsets, and that shakes out as such in our data. San Francisco, for example, is fourth in the league in adjusted line yards. However, San Francisco is the only member of the top five (MIA, DET, BUF, and LAR) to not also rank top five in adjusted sack rate. There, the 49ers come in at 21st with a 7.5% ASR.
It’s tough to overstate just how bad the Giants’ offensive line is. As a run defense, there are at least some teams nearby. The Giants just barely edge out the Jets for the league’s worst adjusted line yards (3.37 to 3.39). As a pass-blocking unit, though, they’re in another stratosphere. The Giants have allowed a league-high 69 sacks, 11 more than second-place Washington. By adjusted sack rate, the Giants’ 15.2% ASR dwarfs Washington’s 11.5%. The difference in ASR between New York and Washington is the same as the difference between Washington and 12th-worst Baltimore.
The adjusted line yards table is much more interesting for defensive breakdowns because it better articulates which levels of the defense are involved in stuffing the run. The New England Patriots have the fifth-best run defense by adjusted line yards. It almost exclusively comes from their linebacker corps and safeties. New England leads the league in second-level yards allowed and rank third in open field. However, they cannot create stops in crucial situations (20th in power success), nor can they generate stuffs from their defensive line personnel. Cleveland’s defense is the exact opposite. Jim Schwartz assigns extensive coverage responsibilities to the linebackers and safeties. Their run defense is mostly placed on the defensive line, particularly in the interior. Cleveland ranks 22nd in second-level and 31st in open field while also leading the league in stuffed rate and adjusted line yards.
Single-Game Splits
Everyone remembers the Dolphins’ 70-point domination over Denver. Despite the massive blowout, their 137.1% offensive passing DVOA is only the third-highest single game mark of the season. Second-highest goes to Buffalo, who put up 320 passing yards and four touchdowns on just 25 attempts … on Miami. That same week, San Francisco put up a hyper-efficient 20-for-21, 283-yard, one-touchdown performance against Arizona. That’s good for a league-best 166.0% single-game offensive passing DVOA. They then followed that up the week after with a 130.3% performance against Dallas, fourth best on the year.
Arizona has had an up-and-down year, and that plays out in their single-game splits. The Cardinals boast the league’s best single-game offensive rushing DVOA in their upset over Dallas. Arizona ran for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 30 carries, running it all over the Cowboys. The Cardinals’ loss to San Francisco the very next week narrowly edges out Miami’s Week 4 loss to the Bills as the worst single-game defensive passing DVOA. (123.3% to 118.2%). Arizona also holds the worst single-game offensive passing DVOA (-108.4%), as well as the second-worst offensive rushing DVOA (-76.3%). Both came in Week 9 against the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland’s special defensive season really shines in its single-game DVOA. Their -113.5% single-game defensive passing DVOA is far and away the best outing the league has seen from a secondary this season. The Browns allowed just 11-for-20 for 58 yards and a pair of picks against the Cardinals in Week 9. On top of that, Cleveland has the two best defensive rushing outings of the season. No other team has posted a defensive rushing DVOA higher than -80.0%. Cleveland has twice: once against the Cardinals, and once in Week 3 against the Titans. Tennessee posted just 26 rushing yards on 15 attempts. Derrick Henry’s 1.82 yards per attempt was the second-worst game of his career with at least 10 rushing attempts.
We’ll take a look at some other DVOA splits next week, including down-and-distance and home vs. road.
