Steelers-Patriots and Lowest NFL Over-Under Totals

This is a general reminder to everyone: there is nothing stopping you from just … not watching tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Seriously. Get some holiday shopping done. Call a loved one. Hell, go watch a movie. Anything but watching the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots play some caricature of a “football game.”

The biggest red flag about this game? The over/under. This game is currently floating somewhere around 30 at most books. That is one of the lowest totals in recent memory. It’s the kind of total that doesn’t just happen because of bad-on-bad. Bad teams face off against each other in the NFL every season. No, point totals like this are a specific mix of a whole mess of factors that result in something painful yet oddly mesmerizing, like staring at the sun. 

In the last 25 years, only a dozen games have featured over/under totals below 32 points. Since 2010, only one other game had an over/under total of exactly 32 points. The scariest part, Vegas is usually right to be so low on these teams. Eight of the 11 games on our table hit the under, most of them easily clearing the bar. 

Yes, Pittsburgh-New England isn’t the only abomination on the slate this weekend. The Cleveland-Jacksonville game also features a ghastly low total of 30.5 points. That should tip you off to some of the key ingredients required to cook up point totals this pungent. 

Bad quarterback play – particularly backup quarterback play – is a key element in most of these games. As things currently stand, Trevor Lawrence’s status is unclear for Sunday’s game against the Browns. That would hypothetically put a backup on both sides of the ball for this game. Likewise, Kenny Pickett has already been ruled out for Thursday. While we know New England hasn’t named a starting quarterback, we know that it won’t be season-long starter Mac Jones. 

Backup quarterbacks are featured plenty on this list. In 2008, the Bengals started young signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick behind Carson Palmer. The Browns were down to third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey to start the game. He got knocked out by halftime, replaced by Bruce Gradkowski. In 2005, the Jets were down to their third-string quarterback Bruce Bollinger. He squared off against Ravens starter Anthony Wright, but Wright would go on to be benched for Kyle Boller a month later. Speaking of 2005, Rex Grossman appeared for the Chicago Bears three times that season: twice in the regular season, once in the postseason. Every single game he appeared in had an over/under of 31 or lower.

That being said, not all these games are backups’ faults. There are legit quarterback names who have to wear these losses. Brett Favre was the quarterback when Green Bay lost 24-17 to the Bears, one of three overs to hit on this list. Chicago picked Favre off four times, one of his six career outings with at least four interceptions. That same Chicago defense also made Michael Vick look pedestrian the week prior. The Bears held Vick to 13-for-32 passing for 122 yards and a pair of picks, the worst passing outing in his 2005 Pro Bowl season. Chicago also held him to 35 rushing yards on six attempts. 

The other central factor is, of course, good defense. Of the 11 games played, nine featured at least one team with a defense that finished top-10 in season-long defensive DVOA. Five of those had two top-10 defenses squaring off against one another. There are typically turnovers galore in these outings. Ten of the 11 games featured at least two turnovers, but six of those 10 featured at least five turnovers. 

The Bears and Ravens both made this list so consistently because of their mix of excellent defensive play and middling quarterback talent. Lovie Smith led the Bears to the league’s best defense in 2005, but the mix of Kyle Orton and Grossman dragged the team into a bunch of low-scoring slugfests. Grossman would eventually go on to play serviceably enough to keep the offense scoring points in 2006. Baltimore suffered the same fate. In back-to-back seasons, the Ravens’ Ray Lewis-Ed Reed-Terrell Suggs-led defense dominated the NFL. Kyle Boller just couldn’t hold up his end of the bargain. 

Some games are the perfect mix of this phenomenon. The 2002 Week 8 meeting between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers featured two of the league’s top-five defenses and two of the league’s bottom-10 offenses. It panned out exactly how you think it would. The teams combined for seven field goals, two red zone appearances, and six turnovers.

Weather was an obvious factor in some of these games. The most recent entry in this bunch, last year’s Week 16 game between the Saints and Browns, was the coldest football game in the New Orleans Saints’ franchise history. Andy Dalton was only able to attempt just 15 passes. Deshaun Watson threw it more, but posted a career-worst 4.35 yards per attempt. 2008 Browns-Bengals game was described as “bone-chilling.” The 2004 bout between the Steelers and Dolphins – Ben Roethlisberger’s debut – featured rain so bad that Miami couldn’t gain the traction to complete a fourth-and-inches sneak. Dolphins head coach Dave Wannstedt was apoplectic after the game: “It was fourth down and two inches. We can’t make two inches on a quarterback sneak? You ought to be able to fall down and make two inches.”

One thing that’s certain about Thursday’s game. When losses like these do come around, they can be absolutely spirit-breaking. 

• When the 0-4 Dolphins lost to the 0-4 Bills (a few weeks after the aforementioned Steelers loss), linebacker Zach Thomas was ready to throw the whole season out: “The frustrating part is that we’re the worst team in the NFL. We are the jokes on Jay Leno.” 
• After losing to the Bears at Lambeau Field in 2005, Packers defensive tackle Grady Jackson started disassociating: “This season feels like a bad dream.” 
• The 2008 Browns-Bengals game prompted Browns running back Jamal Lewis to call this the “worst season I’ve ever played in,” That was the same game he became the 24th player in NFL history to rush for 10,000 career yards. He didn’t care. “The record is the least of my concerns. It’s been a disappointing season.” 

If you’re hoping to hit this over, pray for some offensive breakout. The first – Buffalo’s win over the Dolphins in 2004 – was spearheaded by a rookie Willis McGahee in his first start. McGahee finished the afternoon with 111 rushing yards on 26 touches, adding an additional 31 yards receiving. (McGahee never found paydirt, but a Buffalo pick six made up for the difference). In our lone playoff game on the list, the Carolina Panthers nearly beat this over on their own. Steve Smith was a man on a mission that night, catching 218 receiving yards on 12 receptions for two touchdowns. This currently stands as the fifth-most receiving yards in a playoff game. 

Thursday night’s game checks most of the under boxes, even without the weather element. Good defenses? Check. The Steelers come into Week 14 the fifth-best defense in the league, while New England currently sits at 11th. Backup quarterback? Double check. Neither team is going to have their starting quarterback. Moreover, New England is lacking a lot of their additional offensive weapons. Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario “Pop” Douglas have already been ruled out for this game. 

On the brink of implosion? Potentially! Diontae Johnson and others may have called out Mike Tomlin this week for overlooking the Cardinals, while Najee Harris seems real excited about having Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Patriots are either good at keeping the frustration internal or are resigned to their current status. Who knows how that holds up with a loss as sad as this?

Either way, if you do choose to watch tonight, make sure the volume’s up nice and high. Al MIchaels is going to have a field day with this one.