Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Brock Purdy has easily been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL during the 2023 season. Purdy now leads all quarterbacks with 48.9% passing DVOA. He also leads quarterbacks in passing DYAR despite throwing fewer passes than most starters.
That brings up the controversy about whether Purdy should be the MVP or not. Purdy is clearly the most efficient quarterback and he leads the NFL’s best team, so doesn’t that make him the MVP? The argument against Purdy is that he is helped significantly by the San Francisco scheme and his teammates.
Do you remember who was No. 1 in passing DVOA last year? It was Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers at 30.4%. Jimmy Garoppolo! Garoppolo went to Las Vegas this season and did not, shall we say, look very good. So those San Francisco surroundings were doing a lot of heavy lifting for Garoppolo’s stats with the 49ers.
Purdy is clearly better than Garoppolo was with the same team. In particular, he’s been far superior on deep passes compared to Garoppolo. However, it brings up an interesting point. The 49ers will have two consecutive years of leading the NFL in QB passing DVOA with different quarterbacks. Has that ever happened before?
The answer is no. It’s never happened. But I did go back and look through history to find consecutive years where the same team had two different quarterbacks rank in the top five in passing DVOA. There’s also one year where a team had two quarterbacks qualify (at least 200 passes) and rank in the top five in the same year. Let’s take a look:
1986-1987 Washington: This one barely qualifies. Jay Schroeder was fifth in passing DVOA in 1986 and Doug Williams was fifth in 1987.
1991 San Francisco 49ers: This is the one where two quarterbacks show up in the top five in the same year. Steve Young was second in passing DVOA and Steve Bono was third. The Niners won their final six games but missed the playoffs at 10-6.
1992-1993 Miami Dolphins: Dan Marino was fourth in passing DVOA in 1992. Then he was hurt in 1993 and his backup Scott Mitchell finished fifth.
1994-1995 Detroit Lions: Scott Mitchell again! Mitchell signed with the Lions as a free agent in 1994 but got hurt. His backup Dave Krieg qualified for our rankings and finished second in passing DVOA. Mitchell was healthy in 1995 and set all kinds of Lions records, finishing fourth in passing DVOA.
1997-2000 Minnesota Vikings: Here’s my strong comparison for the current 49ers. The Vikings had quarterbacks finish in the top five for passing DVOA in four straight years and it was four different quarterbacks. Brad Johnson was fifth in 1997. He got hurt in 1998 and was replaced by Randall Cunningham, who led the league with one of the highest passing DVOAs ever. Then Cunningham was hurt in 1999 and was replaced by Jeff George, who ranked third that year. And then the Vikings handed the keys to second-year quarterback Daunte Culpepper in 2000 and he ranked fourth.
The discussion around Cunningham for MVP in 1998 was similar to some of the discussion around Purdy now. After all, Cunningham was throwing to Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Jake Reed. He had Robert Smith in the backfield and one of the league’s top offensive coordinators in Brian Billick. Cunningham ended up finishing second in the MVP voting that year to Terrell Davis and his huge rushing season for the Denver Broncos. This year the only running back who is in the MVP discussion is one of Purdy’s teammates, Christian McCaffrey, and he’s not having the year Terrell Davis had in 1998. And it’s worth noting that the other Vikings quarterbacks who were efficient in 1999 and 2000 also got to take advantage of that same supporting cast, although Billick was gone to Baltimore as head coach.
Back to our countdown with two more teams:
2001-2002 St. Louis Rams: Kurt Warner led the league in passing DVOA in 2001, got hurt in 2002, and his backup Marc Bulger finished second in half a season.
2002-2003 New York Jets: Yes, the Jets! They had good quarterbacks once upon a time, specifically Chad Pennington who led the NFL in passing DVOA in 2002 and Vinny Testaverde who took over for an injured Pennington and finished fifth in 2003.
But the good comparison for the 49ers really is those late-’90s Vikings, where it was hard to figure out just how much credit to give the quarterback as one quarterback after another had success in that system with those receivers. And like Purdy compared to Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, and C.J. Beathard, Randall Cunningham was clearly the best of the bunch. So he’s the one who did get some MVP votes.
Here’s a look at the best and worst players of Week 14 by DYAR, including Brock Purdy having yet another huge week for the 49ers:
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 23/41 | 294 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 168 | 168 | 0 | BAL |
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Opponent adjustments boost Stafford from 108 passing YAR to 168 passing DYAR. He threw 11 passes in the red zone, with three touchdowns plus a first down on a second-and-7 from the Baltimore 17. |
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| 2. | Brock Purdy | SF | 19/27 | 368 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 135 | 132 | 3 | SEA |
| Purdy’s receivers had an average of 10.3 yards after the catch, second in the league this week, but he also had an above-average average depth of target at 9.3 yards. Purdy had 9 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then 123 passing DYAR in the second half. | |||||||||||
| MNF | Tommy DeVito | NYG | 17/21 | 158 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 101 | 17 | GB |
| 3. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 24/43 | 316 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 117 | 93 | 24 | LAR |
| Jackson added on nine carries for 71 yards. He had the second-highest average depth of target this week at 12.7 yards. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Jake Browning | CIN | 18/24 | 275 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 104 | 105 | -1 | IND |
| Browning got an average of 11.4 yards after the catch to lead all quarterbacks this week. | |||||||||||
| 5. | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 28/50 | 257 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 93 | 3 | CLE |
| Opponent adjustments boost Lawrence a ton, from -18 passing YAR to 93 passing DYAR. He leads all quarterbacks this week with 90 DYAR on passes up the middle. He completed all five attempts for four first downs and a touchdown plus a 25-yard DPI that also came on a pass up the middle. | |||||||||||
| 6. | Dak Prescott | DAL | 24/39 | 271 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 83 | 79 | 4 | PHI |
| Prescott drew three DPI flags for a total of 35 yards. He had -52 passing DYAR on first down with just 2.2 net yards per pass, then 91 DYAR on second down (6.4 net yards per pass) and 40 passing DYAR on third down (10.5 net yards per pass). | |||||||||||
| 7. | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 27/36 | 301 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 75 | 85 | -9 | HOU |
| Wilson finishes seventh despite a big penalty for opponent adjustment, dropping from 124 passing YAR to 84 passing DYAR. He has negative rushing value because of a fumble on a 10-yard scramble in the third quarter. | |||||||||||
| 8. | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 18/27 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 74 | 79 | -6 | DAL |
| MNF | Will Levis | TEN | 23/38 | 327 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 74 | 94 | -20 | MIA |
| 9. | Bailey Zappe | NE | 19/28 | 240 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 73 | 78 | -4 | PIT |
| Zappe completed four of five pass attempts up the middle with three first downs and an 8-yard touchdown to Hunter Henry. He had 132 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then -54 passing DYAR in the second half. | |||||||||||
| 10. | Drew Lock | SEA | 22/31 | 269 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 63 | 69 | -6 | SF |
| Lock struggled in the fourth quarter with -66 passing DYAR including two picks and three sacks. | |||||||||||
| 11. | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 26/39 | 347 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 60 | 64 | -5 | TB |
| Ridder led all quarterbacks this week with 114 passing DYAR on deep passes (16 or more air yards). He completed six of 10 on these passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. | |||||||||||
| 12. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 25/43 | 271 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 45 | 40 | 5 | BUF |
| Mahomes had -89 passing DYAR in the first quarter with just 2.4 net yards per pass. | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 13. | Joe Flacco | CLE | 26/45 | 311 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 40 | 2 | JAX |
|
Flacco had -71 passing DYAR on third down, with just 3.4 net yards per pass and only two conversions out of 14 pass attempts. Then David Bell took Flacco’s only fourth-down attempt 41 yards with 37 yards after the catch. |
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| 14. | Gardner Minshew | IND | 26/39 | 240 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 29 | 4 | CIN |
| 15. | Justin Fields | CHI | 19/33 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | -1 | 22 | DET |
| Fields added on 10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. | |||||||||||
| 16. | Nick Mullens | MIN | 9/13 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 0 | LV |
| 17. | Josh Allen | BUF | 23/41 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | KC |
| Allen added on eight carries for 34 yards and a touchdown, but a couple of his third-down scrambles ended short of the sticks. | |||||||||||
| 18. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 14/29 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | ATL |
| 19. | Mitch Trubisky | PIT | 22/35 | 190 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -21 | 22 | NE |
| Trubisky, who was always a good scrambler in his Chicago days, added on seven carries for 31 yards and a touchdown. He struggled on third downs with -80 passing DYAR and 2.1 net yards per pass. | |||||||||||
| 20. | Russell Wilson | DEN | 21/33 | 224 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -9 | -8 | -1 | LAC |
| MNF | Jordan Love | GB | 25/39 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -11 | 16 | -27 | NYG |
| 21. | Easton Stick | LAC | 13/24 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -24 | -24 | 0 | DEN |
| Stick had 25 passing DYAR on first down and then -49 passing DYAR on second through fourth downs. | |||||||||||
| 22. | Derek Carr | NO | 19/26 | 119 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -30 | -30 | 0 | CAR |
| Carr’s average depth of target was just 4.2 yards, the lowest in the league this week. | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| MNF | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 23/33 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -39 | -43 | 4 | TEN |
| 23. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 10/23 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -57 | -57 | 0 | NYJ |
| Stroud gets a boost from opponent adjustments from -113 passing YAR to -57 passing DYAR. | |||||||||||
| 24. | Jared Goff | DET | 20/35 | 161 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -93 | -93 | 0 | CHI |
| 25. | Justin Herbert | LAC | 9/17 | 96 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -118 | -118 | 0 | DEN |
| Herbert on third down: two sacks, two failed completions, an incompletion on third-and-3, and an interception thrown at his own 12. He also had two incomplete passes on fourth down. | |||||||||||
| 26. | Aidan O’Connell | LV | 22/32 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -123 | -127 | 5 | MIN |
| O’Connell’s average depth of target was just 4.5 yards, the second-lowest in the league this week behind the Raiders’ old quarterback, Derek Carr. | |||||||||||
| 27. | Joshua Dobbs | MIN | 10/23 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -126 | -121 | -5 | LV |
| 28. | Bryce Young | CAR | 13/36 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -132 | -148 | 16 | NO |
| Young had the highest average depth of target this week at 13.6 yards. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | James Cook | BUF | 10 | 58 | 0 | 5/5 | 83 | 1 | 63 | 6 | 57 | KC |
|
Cook had at least 8 yards on each reception including this 27-yard first down and a 25-yard touchdown. As a runner, Cook loses 11 DYAR because the Chiefs run defense is poor this season. |
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| MNF | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 21 | 96 | 2 | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 57 | 0 | TEN |
| 2. | Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 22 | 68 | 0 | 7/8 | 72 | 1 | 50 | -2 | 52 | PIT |
| All of Elliott’s positive value came on receptions, with three for at least 11 yards and two more for 9 yards. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Breece Hall | NYJ | 10 | 40 | 0 | 8/9 | 86 | 1 | 47 | -2 | 48 | HOU |
| Hall, who has been surprisingly poor as a runner this year (near the bottom of the league in DYAR), had receptions for 25 and 27 yards plus a 3-yard touchdown. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | David Montgomery | DET | 10 | 66 | 0 | 3/3 | 19 | 0 | 38 | 34 | 4 | CHI |
| Montgomery gained at least 2 yards on every carry, with three first downs of double-digit yards — all on second-and-medium. | ||||||||||||
| 5. | Tony Pollard | DAL | 16 | 59 | 0 | 7/8 | 37 | 0 | 30 | 12 | 19 | PHI |
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| MNF | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 21 | 96 | 2 | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 57 | 0 | |
| 1. | David Montgomery | DET | 10 | 66 | 0 | 3/3 | 19 | 0 | 38 | 34 | 4 | CHI |
| 2. | Devin Singletary | HOU | 13 | 65 | 1 | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 33 | -14 | NYJ |
| Singletary goes from 23 rushing YAR to 33 DYAR for playing the Jets defense. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 16 | 145 | 0 | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 28 | 26 | 2 | SEA |
| McCaffrey earned half his yards on one carry, 72 yards on his first run of the game. Otherwise, he had three double-digit first downs but also eight carries that gained a yard or less. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Kyren Williams | LAR | 25 | 114 | 0 | 3/4 | -1 | 0 | -12 | 18 | -30 | BAL |
| As a runner, Williams had a 56% success rate with five first downs. As a receiver, Williams had a 2-yard loss on first-and-10, an 8-yard loss on third-and-7, and another failed completion on third-and-11. | ||||||||||||
| 5. | Rico Dowdle | DAL | 12 | 46 | 1 | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 17 | 7 | PHI |
| Dowdle’s only run with less than 2 yards was a 1-yard touchdown plunge. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Dalvin Cook | NYJ | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1/1 | -5 | 0 | -24 | -10 | -13 | HOU |
| Four of Cook’s carries went for just 0 or 1 yards, and he lost five yards on his only pass target. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Zack Moss | IND | 13 | 28 | 0 | 4/8 | 28 | 0 | -9 | -23 | 14 | CIN |
| Moss was stuffed for no gain on three carries and took a loss on three more. He had only three carries over 3 yards. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Drake London | ATL | 10 | 11 | 172 | 17.2 | 0 | 77 | TB |
|
London had four different gains of at least 20 yards and two more of 15 and 16 yards. He also earned an important 11-yard DPI in the fourth quarter as the Falcons tried to make a comeback. |
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| 2. | Deebo Samuel | SF | 7 | 9 | 149 | 21.3 | 1 | 69 | SEA |
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This includes 11 rushing DYAR for a 1-yard touchdown run. Samuel also had a 54-yard touchdown on third-and-11, one of two third-and-11s he converted in this game. |
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| 3. | Evan Engram | JAX | 11 | 12 | 95 | 8.6 | 2 | 49 | CLE |
| The Browns were the No. 1 defense covering tight ends going into this game. Engram had five first downs to go with two touchdowns. | |||||||||
| 4. | Puka Nacua | LAR | 5 | 8 | 84 | 16.8 | 0 | 47 | BAL |
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This includes 6 rushing DYAR for a 6-yard carry as well as DPI gains of 15 and 16 yards. Those were two of Nacua’s five first downs in this game, and one of them (which was a bit questionable given how far out of bounds the pass was) came on a third-and-16. |
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| 5. | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 8 | 10 | 115 | 14.4 | 1 | 45 | BAL |
| Kupp had gains of 34, 42, and 27 yards to go with a 6-yard touchdown. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Zay Jones | JAX | 5 | 14 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | -46 | CLE |
| The Jaguars essentially asked Jones to play the Christian Kirk role with Kirk out, and it did not go well, even after a huge adjustment (from -64 DYAR to -46 DYAR) for the Browns defense. Jones was targeted on incomplete passes on third-and-9 and fourth-and-3, and had a failed completion of 2 yards on third-and-8. | |||||||||
