Best MLB Bets Today – Thursday, May 29, 2025
FTN Staff
New York Jets 
New England Patriots 
Miami Dolphins 
Buffalo Bills 
Pittsburgh Steelers 
Cleveland Browns 
Cincinnati Bengals 
Baltimore Ravens 
Tennessee Titans 
Jacksonville Jaguars 
Indianapolis Colts 
Houston Texans 
Las Vegas Raiders 
Los Angeles Chargers 
Kansas City Chiefs 
Denver Broncos 
Washington Commanders 
Philadelphia Eagles 
New York Giants 
Dallas Cowboys 
Minnesota Vikings 
Green Bay Packers 
Detroit Lions 
Chicago Bears 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
New Orleans Saints 
Carolina Panthers 
Atlanta Falcons 
San Francisco 49ers 
Seattle Seahawks 
Los Angeles Rams 
Arizona Cardinals 
Boston Celtics 
Brooklyn Nets 
Philadelphia 76ers 
New York Knicks 
Toronto Raptors 
Chicago Bulls 
Detroit Pistons 
Milwaukee Bucks 
Cleveland Cavaliers 
Indiana Pacers 
Orlando Magic 
Atlanta Hawks 
Charlotte Hornets 
Miami Heat 
Washington Wizards 
Denver Nuggets 
Minnesota Timberwolves 
Oklahoma City Thunder 
Portland Trail Blazers 
Utah Jazz 
LA Clippers 
Golden State Warriors 
Los Angeles Lakers 
Phoenix Suns 
Sacramento Kings 
Dallas Mavericks 
Houston Rockets 
Memphis Grizzlies 
New Orleans Pelicans 
San Antonio Spurs 
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Who is the 2023 Coach of the Year?
At the two-thirds mark of the NFL season, some end-of-year awards are much harder to decide than others. One of the hardest to currently predict: Coach of the Year. It’s one of the few awards that cannot truly be determined until the last weeks of the season, but there are a whole heap of candidates […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Turkeys for 2023
How do you prepare your turkey? I’m a stickler for brining; the number one problem with a terrible turkey is having it dry out and brining it helps it absorb extra moisture and make a juicer, more flavorful bird. But there are dozens of ways to go about it. I’ve enjoyed deep-fried birds, spatchcocked birds, […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Why DVOA Puts Eagles and Steelers Together
Something is afoot in the state of Pennsylvania, at least when it comes to DVOA ratings. Why do we have Philadelphia so low and Pittsburgh so high? They’re right next to each other, ranked 10th and 11th. Yet the Eagles lead power rankings around the Internet and have the best record in the NFL at […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 Quick Reads: Deep Cuts
You gotta be able to get the ball deep sometimes. Man does not live on checkdowns and short crosses alone. Brock Purdy got the ball deep on the way to being this week’s top quarterback by DYAR. Purdy currently leads the league in DVOA on deep passes, defined in the league play-by-play as passes of […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Whatever Happened to the Class of 2021?
The 2021 draft’s quarterback class was supposed to be special. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round, including the top three picks. In total, a record eight quarterbacks were selected in the first two days. The draft had everything: highly-revered generational talents, tried-and-true pocket passers, big-upside projects, backyard ballers, dual-threat scramblers. You name it, […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 11 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
C.J. Stroud and the DYAR Leaders
Things change fast in the NFL. Last week, as we broke down the midseason award leaders, we noted that, all else being equal, the default choice for MVP should be the player leading the league in passing DYAR. And that was one Patrick Joshua Allen. Yeah, so, about that… You might argue that take aged […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: How Real are the Ravens’ Q4 Problems?
The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 Quick Reads: Another Impressive C.J. Stroud Joint
Updated Tuesday morning with Monday Night Football. None of this week’s best or worst players really stood out historically so I thought it would be a good week to take stock of the whole season. Which players have seen the biggest opponent adjustments so far? Remember that opponent adjustments aren’t based just on how good […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 10 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How the Chiefs Built a Top Defense
This has been an unusual season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, the Andy Reid-coached offense is still good. Patrick Mahomes is performing toward the top of the league. Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in receiving DYAR. That’s all typical, but it hasn’t been the story dominating Kansas City’s season. For the first time […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 NFL Midseason Awards Leaders
It’s Week 10 in the NFL. Do you know where your MVP is? Handing out midseason awards isn’t about actual hardware or anything – no one celebrates being MVP in October. But it’s a good framework to reflect on what we’ve seen over the first 136 games of the season and try to figure out […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness
The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 Quick Reads: C.J. Stroud’s Record-Setting Afternoon
C.J. Stroud is having an incredible rookie season, but it hit its peak in yesterday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud had five touchdown passes and set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards, also leading a last-minute comeback for a 39-37 win. As you might suspect, Stroud also set records by our […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 9 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defenses and Interception-Worthy Throws
Welcome back to our exploration of interception-worthy throws, a stat we collect with FTN Data charting. Last week, we looked at this stat in its proper context: analyzing quarterbacks. This is a quarterback passing stat used to count throws to well-defended receivers. I argued that this was a good way to cut out the noise and […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
The 10 Best NFL International Games
Set your alarm clocks and break out the coffee, because the best game in the NFL this week comes to you from Frankfurt. It was never the league’s explicit plan to give Germany the best game of the week, and one of the best games of the year, when they scheduled the Kansas City Chiefs […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Hottest Teams of Weeks 5-8
NFL teams talk often about peaking heading into the playoffs, but the truth is that they often show their true colors far earlier in the season. Now eight weeks in, we can compare teams’ last four weeks to their first four to get a great sense of who is surging into contention. There are five […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 DVOA: Ravens Extend First-Place Lead
The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA after this week’s 31-24 victory over the Cardinals. With San Francisco and Kansas City losing this week, the Ravens have now opened a huge lead over the rest of the league, more than 10 percentage points. San Francisco remains second, with Kansas City dropping one spot into […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 Quick Reads: Will Levis and Great QB Debuts
Will Levis had an impressive debut at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans this week, with four touchdown passes. However, this game was not one of the best quarterback debuts in DVOA history because Levis played a bad pass defense (Atlanta) and had a low success rate of 29%. Most of his success came from the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 8 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Lessons from Interception-Worthy Throws
Our understanding of football is constantly evolving. With growth in analytics spaces, the increasing ubiquity of data literacy, and the continued work of game-charting teams, data-literate NFL fans are finding new ways to process and interpret the game we love. While quarterbacks are by far the most visible position in football, our tools for evaluating […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
All Those Sam Howell Sacks
We need to talk about Sam Howell. But before we do, we need to talk about David Carr. Since 2002, the record for most times sacked in a season has belonged to Carr and the Houston Texans. Behind a legendarily bad expansion line, with a top-pick pedigree and no one worth starting behind him, Carr […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Climb to No. 1 after Week of Upsets
We thought Week 6 was Upset Week in the NFL, but Week 7 really was Upset Week. Last week’s top four teams in DVOA all lost this weekend: San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami. Baltimore’s victory over Detroit was so gigantic that the Ravens leaped up 15 percentage points of DVOA and now hold the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 Quick Reads: Big Weeks for Jackson and Mahomes
Now updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10am EDT. Lamar Jackson had a dominant performance on Sunday in a 38-6 victory over the Detroit Lions. Many analysts felt it was the best passing performance of his career. But by DYAR, it wasn’t even the best performance of the week. That belonged to Patrick […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 7 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The End of the Patriots Dynasty
The New England Patriots spent the 2023 offseason seemingly wiping their hands clean of the nightmare that was 2022. For how bad the season may have felt, an 8-9 record with a No. 15 total DVOA and a Week 18 playoff elimination seemed easy to come back from. The Patriots chalked their offensive woes up […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Why Does Something Feel Off in Kansas City?
The world champion Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1. If the season ended today, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So why does it feel like they are … kinda meh this year? Most of the high-level data points don’t support that feeling. As we said above, they are sitting pretty in […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Players Who Should Be Moved at the Trade Deadline
The NFL trade deadline falls on Halloween this year, which is fitting because the dead walk amongst us. Don’t be confused if they’re still technically upright, shuffling their way listlessly through the season. Don’t be alarmed if they cause a contender or two to trip over their lifeless corpses. Don’t even be shocked if you […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 DVOA: Lions Move to No. 2
A week of upsets and near-upsets are probably shaking up power rankings all over the Internet. Over here with DVOA ratings, we don’t have as much of a shakeup. First of all, Week 6 represented just one week out of six, and DVOA stays away from recency bias. Second, the San Francisco 49ers were so […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 Quick Reads: A History of Mac Joneses
Mac Jones of the New England Patriots has a very strange career path. Jones was good as a rookie, very productive compared to other rookie quarterbacks. He ended the year with 6.1% passing DVOA, 13th that year among qualifying quarterbacks. By DYAR, Jones had the 10th-best passing season for any rookie in our database, back […]
Aaron Schatz