Week 13 Quick Reads: Big Seasons for Aiyuk and Hill

Tyreek Hill does not make our Quick Reads list of the top five wide receivers of Week 13. Neither does Brandon Aiyuk. Hill ends up eighth, thanks to one catch for a 6-yard loss and the opponent adjustments for playing the worst pass defense in the league, the Washington Commanders. Aiyuk is even lower, since he didn’t have a gain above 13 yards this week. However, both receivers are “on pace” for a couple of pretty phenomenal seasons that may break (or come close to breaking) DVOA/DYAR records. Let’s take a look at where Hill and Aiyuk might finish the year.

We’ll look at Hill first. Hill now leads the league with 454 receiving DYAR, over 100 DYAR past A.J. Brown in second place. That puts Hill on pace for 643 DYAR in a 17-game season, which would surpass the current record of 618 DYAR set by Cooper Kupp two years ago. Of course, Hill is also on pace to become the first receiver to top 2,000 receiving yards in a season, but around here we’re more concerned with DYAR and DVOA.

The thing about Hill being “on pace” is that we don’t know what’s coming in the next five games. Take Calvin Johnson, for example. Through 12 games of the 2011 season, Johnson had “only” 295 receiving DYAR. However, his final four games of that season included two games with more than 200 receiving yards apiece. Johnson ended the year with 565 receiving DYAR, one of the best seasons ever measured. He had as much value in the final three games of that season as he had in the first 13 games.

Here’s a look at the top wide receiver seasons in DYAR history and how many DYAR each of those receivers had through 12 games of the season:

Best WR Seasons by Receiving DYAR, 1981-2022
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DYAR Thru 12 G
2021	Cooper Kupp	LAR	618	430
1995	Michael Irvin	DAL	591	522
2007	Randy Moss	NE	568	481
2011	Calvin Johnson	DET	565	295
1989	Jerry Rice	SF	563	526
2014	Antonio Brown	PIT	554	402
1986	Stanley Morgan	NE	544	373
2019	Michael Thomas	NO	538	408
2001	Marvin Harrison	IND	534	385
2011	Jordy Nelson	GB	520	370
2015	Antonio Brown	PIT	517	355
1994	Jerry Rice	SF	516	347

Only three of these receivers had more DYAR after 12 games than Tyreek Hill has now. But there were other receivers who had more than 454 receiving DYAR after 12 games… and then slowed down enough to not appear on the list of the best all-time seasons. For example, Terrell Owens in 2007 had 466 DYAR through 12 games, nearly neck-and-neck with Randy Moss. Then Owens had -16 receiving DYAR in Weeks 14-16, including a game where he caught just 2 of 12 targets, and he sat out Week 17.

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The other receiver having a historically great season is Brandon Aiyuk of the 49ers. He doesn’t catch passes with the same volume as Hill, so he’s only third in receiving DYAR. But he’s phenomenal this year on a per-target basis, ranking No. 1 with a receiving DVOA of 48.7%. Aiyuk is on pace for 105 targets, and a DVOA of 48.7% with 105 targets would give Aiyuk the highest receiving DVOA ever for a wide receiver with at least 100 targets.

Of course, Aiyuk won’t necessarily be as good in the final five games as he was in the first 11 games (he’s missed one). There is central tendency to drag down his receiving DVOA. He was at over 50% before this week’s game with the Eagles. Most of the receivers with the best DVOA seasons ever were a little higher after 12 games compared to their final ratings. But Aiyuk has a chance to appear very high on this list. Here’s a look at the top wide receiver seasons by DVOA. I pulled a minimum of 90 targets instead of 100 in case Aiyuk doesn’t quite get to the latter baseline.

Best WR Seasons by Receiving DVOA (min. 90 Passes), 1981-2022
Year	Player	Team	Passes	DVOA	DVOA Thru 12 G
2011	Jordy Nelson	GB	96	52.9%	57.5%
1981	Steve Watson	DEN	95	52.1%	61.7%
1989	Jerry Rice	SF	129	45.1%	54.9%
1986	Stanley Morgan	NE	135	40.1%	38.9%
2009	Vincent Jackson	SD	109	39.9%	40.6%
1988	Eddie Brown	CIN	99	39.6%	38.3%
2015	Doug Baldwin	SEA	103	39.6%	37.4%
1991	Michael Irvin	DAL	149	39.4%	48.4%
1984	Mark Clayton	MIA	116	38.9%	40.9%
1998	Eric Moulds	BUF	116	38.8%	50.3%
1991	Floyd Turner	NO	97	37.8%	53.2%
1998	Terrell Owens	SF	104	36.6%	38.7%

Now here’s a look at the best and worst players of Week 13 by DYAR:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	22/37	279	3	0	0	213	213	0	CLE
This game was only sixth in YAR before applying opponent adjustments, but moved up from 136 YAR to 213 DYAR because of how good the Browns pass defense has been this year (or had been, at least, with a healthy Myles Garrett before this game). Stafford was at his best with 94% DVOA and 10.8 net yards per pass on second downs.
2.	Geno Smith	SEA	23/40	334	3	1	0	204	186	17	DAL
Smith goes from 168 YAR to 204 DYAR with opponent adjustments. Smith had a lot of rushing value because he converted two third downs including the 5-yard touchdown scramble on third-and-goal from the 5.
3.	Brock Purdy	SF	19/27	314	4	0	2	193	186	8	PHI
This was the top game of the week by YAR before applying opponent adjustments. Purdy had the lowest average depth of target of any quarterback with at least a dozen passes this week, at 6.6 yards. He didn’t attempt a single deep pass (16 or more air yards) against the Eagles. Purdy had -24 passing DYAR in the first quarter and then 81, 68, and 60 in the final three quarters. Purdy also converted 7 of 10 opportunities on third down, along with an 8-yard pass on third-and-9.
MNF	Jake Browning	CIN	32/37	354	1	0	2	181	166	14	JAX
4.	Dak Prescott	DAL	29/41	299	3	0	4	177	173	4	SEA
Prescott had more YAR than Geno Smith but opponent adjustments drop him while they raise Smith. While other stats have Prescott near the top of the league, he’s only sixth in passing DYAR this season because of opponent adjustments. (He is third in YAR, without opponent adjustments.)
5.	Jordan Love	GB	25/36	267	3	0	2	176	171	6	KC
As good as Love was on Sunday night, he had -1 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter despite 17 pass plays. That was a net average of just 3.9 yards per pass play.
6.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	18/24	280	2	0	0	124	124	0	WAS
Tagovailoa converted 6 of 10 opportunities on third down with two touchdowns and 20.1 net yards per pass.
MNF	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	22/29	258	2	0	2	123	121	2	CIN
7.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	26/45	298	1	0	3	121	134	-13	SF
Hurst had seven carries for 20 yards and a touchdown. He was a machine on third down, converting 8 of 12 pass opportunities with 12.5 net yards per pass.
8.	Jared Goff	DET	16/25	213	2	0	1	105	105	0	NO
Goff had four passes to running backs with two completions, both losses. The Saints are very strong against passes to running backs.
9.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	21/33	210	2	1	3	49	39	10	GB
Mahomes had a surprising -37 DYAR on first down, with just 5.1 net yards per pass including a sack and his only interception.
10.	Mitch Trubisky	PIT	11/17	117	1	0	0	43	62	-19	ARI
11.	Derek Carr	NO	17/22	226	1	1	2	39	49	-10	DET
Carr was worth -89 passing DYAR in the first quarter with a negative net yards per pass. Then he was worth 139 passing DYAR in the next two quarters, and then he got hurt early in the fourth quarter.
12.	Joe Flacco	CLE	24/44	254	2	1	2	22	22	0	LAR
Flacco earned 46 passing DYAR in the first half of this game but -25 passing DYAR in the second half.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Kyler Murray	ARI	13/23	145	1	0	2	14	44	-30	PIT
Murray fumbled twice, an aborted snap and a botched run, and had a third running play that lost 2 yards. He had 61 passing DYAR on third downs, with five conversions (one a touchdown pass to Trey McBride) plus a 7-yard DPI gain on a pass to Greg Dortch in the end zone.
14.	Justin Herbert	LAC	22/37	212	0	0	0	13	25	-12	NE
15.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	13/27	121	1	0	3	12	27	-15	NYJ
Ridder climbed from -15 passing YAR to 27 passing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He had negative net yards per pass on first down if you credit him with -10 yards for intentional grounding. (He had four incomplete passes and completions for 1 and 8 yards).
16.	Baker Mayfield	TB	14/29	202	1	1	1	9	9	0	CAR
17.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	16/27	274	1	0	5	2	4	-2	DEN
Houston escaped with a victory even though Stroud went from 41 passing DYAR in the first half (12.1 net yards per pass) to -37 passing DYAR in the second half (3.8 net yards per pass).
18.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	7/10	70	0	0	0	-5	23	-29	ARI
Pickett loses a lot of value on runs because of an aborted play and two scrambles that failed to convert on second-and-3 and third-and-3. Ankle surgery will now keep him out for 2-5 weeks.
19.	Will Levis	TEN	16/33	224	1	0	6	-15	-18	3	IND
Levis earned 45 passing DYAR on first and second down but -62 passing DYAR on third down with just 1.4 net yards per pass and two fumbles on sacks.
MNF	C.J. Beathard	JAX	9/10	63	0	0	2	-21	-8	-13	CIN
20.	Gardner Minshew	IND	26/42	312	2	0	3	-31	-26	-5	TEN
Minshew dropped from 20 passing YAR to -30 passing DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was worth -74 passing DYAR in the red zone, with two sacks and a fumble plus an incomplete pass on third-and-5 and a 1-yard pass on third-and-6. He had only one successful play in the red zone but it was a 4-yard touchdown to Michael Pittman to win the game.
21.	Tim Boyle	NYJ	14/25	148	0	1	1	-32	-36	4	ATL
22.	Bailey Zappe	NE	13/25	141	0	0	5	-63	-72	9	LAC
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Sam Howell	WAS	12/23	127	0	1	3	-95	-112	17	MIA
Howell earned 17 rushing DYAR for four carries for 21 yards and two touchdowns. He earned -126 passing DYAR in the first half of this game but 14 passing DYAR in the second half. He had just 0.6 net yards per pass on nine plays on first down.
24.	Bryce Young	CAR	16/31	178	0	1	4	-103	-103	0	TB
Young is in last place for the season (min. 200 passes) with -775 passing DYAR and -40.7% passing DVOA.
25.	Trevor Siemian	NYJ	5/13	66	0	0	3	-105	-109	4	ATL
26.	Russell Wilson	DEN	15/26	186	1	3	3	-131	-150	19	HOU
Wilson had the most rushing value of any quarterback in the league this week, with nine carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. He also had the highest average depth of target this week, at 12.9 yards, but those three interceptions really hurt his value, especially on third-and-goal from the Houston 8 in the fourth quarter to end the game.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	17	93	1	3/4	40	0	64	45	19	PHI
On the ground, McCaffrey had six first downs and a touchdown, with three carries of double-digit yardage and a conversion on fourth-and-1, against a strong Eagles run defense. His big catch went for 33 yards on a third-and-3 in the third quarter.
2.	De’Von Achane	MIA	17	73	2	3/4	30	0	52	39	13	WAS
Achane had a 7-yard loss on his first carry and then never gained less than 2 yards on his 16 other carries.
3.	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	25	104	2	0/0	0	0	50	50	0	TB
Hubbard was the top rusher of the week, in part because of opponent adjustments for facing the Tampa Bay run defense. He moved the chains six times, including the two touchdowns, and had a dozen carries that gained at least 5 yards.
MNF	Joe Mixon	CIN	19	68	2	6/7	49	0	48	34	14	JAX
4.	Alvin Kamara	NO	14	51	2	6/8	58	0	46	25	21	DET
Kamara had only a 50% success rate on the ground but earned four first downs as a receiver.
5.	Derrick Henry	TEN	21	102	2	1/2	18	0	45	39	7	IND
Henry had five first downs to go with the two touchdowns, but takes a small penalty to DYAR because the Colts run defense has not been good this season.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	25	104	2	0/0	0	0	50	50	0	TB
2.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	17	93	1	3/4	40	0	64	45	19	PHI
3.	De’Von Achane	MIA	17	73	2	3/4	30	0	52	39	13	WAS
4.	Derrick Henry	TEN	21	102	2	1/2	18	0	45	39	7	IND
5.	Isiah Pacheco	KC	18	110	1	3/4	13	0	31	35	-4	GB

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Breece Hall

NYJ

6/8

-43

-23

-20

ATL

Hall had three failed completions on third-and-long plus a 2-yard loss on a catch on first-and-14 from the Jets 7. On the ground, Hall lost yardage on six different carries and only moved the chains once. He gets a bump up from the Falcons run defense (good) and a bump down from the Falcons pass defense against running backs (bad).

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)