Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Baltimore Ravens won the Christmas DVOA Bowl decisively and are now back into first place in our DVOA ratings. However, the 49ers didn’t fall back as much as you might expect, in part because of opponent adjustments for playing a great Ravens team, and they also still rank among the top teams in DVOA history.
We’ve had Baltimore higher than other advanced metrics for most of the season and for one night, at least, DVOA proved prescient. We still had San Francisco ahead of Baltimore, of course, but we had the two teams closer and the Ravens won the game pulling away. The Ravens now rank as the fourth-best team in DVOA history through 15 games. They only trail the holy trinity of the three best teams of the last 40 years: the 2007 Patriots, the 1991 Redskins, and the 1985 Bears.
And yet, the 49ers are right behind them. There’s going to be a lot of recency bias around the Internet this week, discounting the 49ers based on one bad loss to a very, very good opponent. I’ve already seen power rankings that put the 49ers behind the Miami Dolphins. That’s great if you want to tweak your power rankings specifically to set up another No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup this week, but otherwise, be real. The 49ers have been dominant before one game where they had some turnovers. They’ve clearly been a better team than Miami. This doesn’t mean that the Dolphins don’t have a chance to beat the Ravens — they do! — but any objective rating system has to keep the 49ers at No. 2 despite their loss.
Here’s a look at the other great teams of DVOA history that now rank behind the 2023 Ravens and 49ers:
| Best DVOA Thru 15 Games, 1981-2023 | |||||||||
| Year | Team | W-L | DVOA | Off | Rk | Def | Rk | ST | Rk |
| 2007 | NE | 15-0 | 54.4% | 36.4% | 1 | -13.3% | 2 | 4.6% | 5 |
| 1991 | WAS | 14-1 | 50.0% | 22.8% | 1 | -19.1% | 3 | 8.2% | 1 |
| 1985 | CHI | 14-1 | 45.7% | 13.5% | 5 | -29.2% | 1 | 3.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | BAL | 12-3 | 43.6% | 18.3% | 4 | -22.1% | 2 | 3.2% | 4 |
| 2023 | SF | 11-4 | 42.6% | 33.5% | 1 | -10.7% | 4 | -1.6% | 23 |
| 2010 | NE | 13-2 | 42.1% | 37.8% | 1 | -1.2% | 14 | 3.1% | 9 |
| 1987 | SF* | 10-2 | 41.5% | 19.6% | 3 | -20.6% | 1 | 1.3% | 9 |
| 1995 | SF | 11-4 | 41.5% | 16.5% | 3 | -27.3% | 1 | -2.4% | 23 |
| 1983 | WAS | 13-2 | 40.6% | 22.3% | 1 | -15.3% | 2 | 3.0% | 6 |
| 1999 | STL | 13-2 | 39.8% | 18.6% | 3 | -18.5% | 2 | 2.7% | 10 |
| 2019 | BAL | 13-2 | 38.3% | 25.6% | 1 | -12.4% | 5 | 0.3% | 13 |
| 1994 | DAL | 12-3 | 37.8% | 19.8% | 1 | -16.1% | 2 | 1.9% | 6 |
| 2012 | SEA | 10-5 | 37.3% | 18.7% | 4 | -13.2% | 5 | 5.4% | 3 |
| 2004 | NE | 13-2 | 37.1% | 21.6% | 4 | -15.4% | 4 | 0.2% | 16 |
| *includes only 12 non-strikebreaker games | |||||||||
The Ravens end up with 121.2% DVOA for the game, which makes some history. The Ravens are the first team in DVOA history to put up three games over 100% in a single season — regular season or playoffs. Games with a DVOA over 100% are very rare. There have only been four of them this season. The ratings oscillate a bit as the opponent adjustments change each week, but as of right now, the Buffalo Bills had 121.3% for their big 48-20 win over Miami back in Week 4. The other three are all Baltimore. Baltimore is at 125.2% for the Week 7 38-6 win over Detroit, 121.2% for last night’s 33-19 win over San Francisco, and 104.6% for the Week 9 37-3 win over Seattle. It’s possible that the Seahawks will play badly enough in Weeks 17-18 to change that rating and drop it below 100%, but it’s not likely.
What’s interesting is that the list of teams with multiple 100% games in the same regular season is not a list of great teams! Some of these teams just had a couple of randomly awesome games in the middle of a mediocre season. A few of them were great teams (1994 Cowboys, 2010 Patriots, 2012 Seahawks) that just didn’t win it all. Here’s the list:
- 1986 Seahawks: Week 14 37-0 over LARD and Week 16 41-16 over DEN
- 1994 Cowboys: Week 6 38-3 over ARI and Week 10 38-10 over NYG
- 2006 Jaguars: Week 5 41-0 over NYJ and Week 14 44-17 over IND
- 2007 Broncos: Week 11 34-20 over TEN and Week 14 41-7 over KC
- 2010 Patriots: Week 13 45-3 over NYJ and Week 17 38-7 over MIA
- 2012 Seahawks: Week 14 58-0 over ARI and Week 16 42-13 over SF
- 2013 Eagles: Week 9 49-20 over OAK and Week 16 54-11 over CHI
(That 2007 Broncos Week 11 game is a bit kooky to rank so high but the Broncos managed 8.0 yards a play against a Titans defense which ranked second on the season, then got a special teams boost with a punt return touchdown.)
Add in postseason games over 100% and now you bring in some of the greatest teams of all time, such as the 1985 Bears and 1989 49ers. But still, no team had ever put up three of these games in one year until the 2023 Ravens.
The 49ers and Ravens have been even better in recent weeks which means they are both higher in weighted DVOA and that means our playoff odds simulation absolutely loves these teams. We have the 49ers winning it all in 36.1% of simulations and the Ravens winning it all in 34.8% of simulations. The 49ers are a bit higher because it’s easier to come out of the NFC than the AFC, with Miami, Buffalo, and Kansas City now ranked third, fourth, and sixth in weighted DVOA while Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia are fifth, seventh, and ninth.
Rams, Bears, Raiders Getting Hot
The hottest team in the NFL right now, at least according to conventional wisdom, is the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have gone 5-1 over their last six games with the only loss coming in overtime to the Ravens. They’ve scored at least 28 points in their last five games. Does DVOA agree that the Rams are super hot and dangerous come playoff time?
Not quite. Surprisingly, the Rams are still only 13th in weighted DVOA. Part of this is that weighted DVOA still looks pretty long-term, so it includes their losses in the first half of the season. In particular, it still gives some weight to the Week 9 loss to the Packers where Brett Rypien replaced an injured Matthew Stafford and was horrible. The Rams are now seventh in offense for the season and move up to fifth if you remove that Week 9 game.
The problem for the Rams in DVOA is that they have a mediocre defense and awful special teams. For the entire season, the Rams are last in special teams and there’s a pretty big margin between the Rams and everyone else. They are at -8.6% DVOA with the Patriots now ranked 31st at -4.7% DVOA.
What if we only look at the last six games, where the Rams offense has been stellar? They do have the No. 2 offense in the league over that period, but they only have the No. 7 total DVOA. In fact, there are some pretty surprising other hot teams if we look specifically at how teams have done since Week 11. Here’s the top 10:
| Total DVOA Top 10, Weeks 11-16 2023 | |||||||||
| Team | DVOA | Rk | W-L | Off | Rk | Def | Rk | ST | Rk |
| SF | 53.4% | 1 | 5-1 | 38.8% | 1 | -16.8% | 6 | -2.2% | 25 |
| BAL | 52.3% | 2 | 5-1 | 22.6% | 3 | -21.1% | 3 | 8.7% | 2 |
| MIA | 38.1% | 3 | 5-1 | 17.4% | 6 | -16.1% | 7 | 4.7% | 6 |
| BUF | 36.4% | 4 | 4-2 | 18.5% | 5 | -15.9% | 8 | 1.9% | 13 |
| CHI | 20.6% | 5 | 4-2 | -1.9% | 18 | -20.8% | 4 | 1.7% | 14 |
| LV | 19.5% | 6 | 3-3 | -3.2% | 20 | -23.1% | 1 | -0.4% | 18 |
| LAR | 16.9% | 7 | 5-1 | 26.9% | 2 | 0.5% | 16 | -9.5% | 32 |
| DAL | 14.8% | 8 | 4-2 | 11.1% | 7 | 0.0% | 15 | 3.7% | 10 |
| TB | 13.3% | 9 | 4-2 | 4.5% | 12 | -4.2% | 12 | 4.6% | 7 |
| ATL | 8.9% | 10 | 3-3 | -2.1% | 19 | -11.7% | 9 | -0.7% | 20 |
Wait, what? You probably already knew that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were kind of hot in recent weeks, and they’re the clear favorites now to win the NFC South. But the Chicago Bears? The Las Vegas Raiders? The Atlanta Falcons? And these teams are all doing it with defense. Did you realize how well these defenses were playing lately? Maybe you know a bit about the Raiders defense after yesterday’s win against Kansas City, but I bet you didn’t think “the Raiders have been the best defense in the league over the last month and a half.”
The Bears are particularly interesting here because the narrative is that Justin Fields is leading them to victory with a 4-2 record in the last six weeks. But Justin Fields is still not really leading them to victory. The Bears’ team pass offense DVOA over the last six weeks ranks 19th. That’s team pass offense, which means it includes Fields’ scrambles. His individual pass DVOA, which still does not include scrambles, is worse. Chicago’s improvement has been through defense and, to a smaller extent, the running game.
The Raiders and Falcons still have a small chance to make it to the postseason but the Rams are definitely the better story. They have a better than 50-50 shot at the postseason now. Offense is more exciting than defense, and more sustainable. Matthew Stafford might have to travel to Detroit in the first round! Puka Nacua’s name is fun to say! But the Rams are not necessarily the hottest team in the league right now and they certainly aren’t the only surprisingly hot team over the last six weeks. Atlanta at Chicago on New Year’s Eve is … secretly kind of interesting?
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 16 weeks of 2023. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
WEIGHTED DVOA gives more weight to recent games and less weight to early-season games to get a better idea of how teams are playing now.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 1 | BAL | 43.6% | 2 | 47.0% | 1 | 12-3 | 18.3% | 4 | -22.1% | 2 | 3.2% | 4 |
| 2 | SF | 42.6% | 1 | 45.1% | 2 | 11-4 | 33.5% | 1 | -10.7% | 4 | -1.6% | 23 |
| 3 | BUF | 24.9% | 3 | 23.3% | 4 | 9-6 | 22.6% | 2 | -2.5% | 12 | -0.2% | 18 |
| 4 | MIA | 24.8% | 4 | 29.5% | 3 | 11-4 | 22.6% | 3 | -1.5% | 15 | 0.7% | 12 |
| 5 | KC | 19.3% | 5 | 16.3% | 6 | 9-6 | 12.9% | 6 | -4.1% | 9 | 2.4% | 8 |
| 6 | DAL | 18.0% | 6 | 18.0% | 5 | 10-5 | 8.6% | 9 | -6.8% | 6 | 2.7% | 6 |
| 7 | DET | 14.7% | 7 | 10.1% | 7 | 11-4 | 13.4% | 5 | -2.2% | 14 | -0.9% | 22 |
| 8 | CLE | 11.4% | 8 | 9.3% | 8 | 10-5 | -12.7% | 27 | -24.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 17 |
| 9 | PHI | 10.2% | 10 | 8.3% | 9 | 11-4 | 10.6% | 8 | 5.2% | 23 | 4.8% | 1 |
| 10 | JAX | 4.2% | 9 | -1.2% | 16 | 8-7 | 0.1% | 15 | -3.3% | 10 | 0.7% | 12 |
| 11 | PIT | 3.9% | 14 | 4.5% | 11 | 8-7 | -1.6% | 19 | -6.1% | 7 | -0.6% | 19 |
| 12 | TB | 2.0% | 18 | 4.7% | 10 | 8-7 | -0.7% | 18 | -2.4% | 13 | 0.4% | 15 |
| 13 | CIN | 0.9% | 11 | 1.8% | 14 | 8-7 | 6.3% | 11 | 8.4% | 26 | 3.0% | 5 |
| 14 | SEA | 0.2% | 13 | -1.3% | 17 | 8-7 | 3.8% | 12 | 5.4% | 24 | 1.9% | 11 |
| 15 | HOU | 0.0% | 12 | -1.4% | 18 | 8-7 | 0.9% | 13 | 3.0% | 21 | 2.2% | 10 |
| 16 | LAR | -0.2% | 19 | 2.5% | 13 | 8-7 | 11.9% | 7 | 3.5% | 22 | -8.6% | 32 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | MIN | -1.0% | 16 | -1.6% | 19 | 7-8 | -4.6% | 21 | -7.0% | 5 | -3.4% | 30 |
| 18 | NO | -3.1% | 15 | -5.0% | 21 | 7-8 | -3.2% | 20 | 0.2% | 17 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 19 | LAC | -4.8% | 20 | -10.2% | 25 | 5-10 | 0.6% | 14 | 9.5% | 28 | 4.1% | 2 |
| 20 | IND | -5.1% | 17 | -6.5% | 22 | 8-7 | -0.5% | 17 | 1.2% | 18 | -3.4% | 29 |
| 21 | GB | -5.9% | 21 | -6.8% | 23 | 7-8 | 8.2% | 10 | 12.1% | 30 | -2.1% | 27 |
| 22 | LV | -7.5% | 24 | 1.8% | 15 | 7-8 | -13.9% | 29 | -5.9% | 8 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 23 | CHI | -8.2% | 23 | 2.6% | 12 | 6-9 | -7.6% | 22 | 0.0% | 16 | -0.6% | 20 |
| 24 | DEN | -9.5% | 22 | -3.4% | 20 | 7-8 | -0.4% | 16 | 11.4% | 29 | 2.3% | 9 |
| 25 | ATL | -12.7% | 28 | -8.2% | 24 | 7-8 | -8.3% | 24 | 2.2% | 19 | -2.2% | 28 |
| 26 | TEN | -12.9% | 25 | -13.8% | 26 | 5-10 | -8.6% | 25 | 2.4% | 20 | -1.9% | 25 |
| 27 | NYJ | -13.8% | 26 | -15.9% | 27 | 6-9 | -32.4% | 32 | -14.9% | 3 | 3.8% | 3 |
| 28 | NE | -14.6% | 27 | -16.6% | 28 | 4-11 | -13.2% | 28 | -3.2% | 11 | -4.7% | 31 |
| 29 | ARI | -24.7% | 30 | -24.7% | 29 | 3-12 | -9.9% | 26 | 17.3% | 32 | 2.6% | 7 |
| 30 | WAS | -25.0% | 29 | -29.6% | 31 | 4-11 | -7.9% | 23 | 15.3% | 31 | -1.9% | 24 |
| 31 | CAR | -33.7% | 31 | -33.5% | 32 | 2-13 | -24.2% | 30 | 8.7% | 27 | -0.8% | 21 |
| 32 | NYG | -35.8% | 32 | -29.5% | 30 | 5-10 | -27.2% | 31 | 6.6% | 25 | -2.0% | 26 |
