Chiefs at Ravens: DVOA Preview

NBA stat modelers have a problem. It’s called “playoff LeBron.” NBA teams are constantly sitting their star players for a game or two for “load management.” Some teams sit guys more than others. There’s also the sense that certain players aren’t really giving their all until we get to the postseason. Then we get to the NBA playoffs, and everybody is playing every game if they are healthy, and playing at their hardest.

Last year, the Lakers finished seventh in the Western Conference. They won their first two playoff series fairly easily over teams that were better in the regular season before they fell to the eventual champion Denver Nuggets.

Some people feel we have the same problem in the NFL now. It’s called “playoff Mahomes.” The idea is that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense as a whole will always turn it up another notch in the playoffs. This was a big issue back in 2020, when people argued that the Chiefs were a different team in the playoffs until they went into the Super Bowl and got spanked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s an issue again now. There’s no question that Patrick Mahomes had an awesome game against Buffalo last week. But by the numbers, this year’s version of “playoff Mahomes” is one game. The Chiefs had their best offensive game of the year by DVOA against Buffalo. The week before, against Miami, the Chiefs had 0% offensive DVOA and won the game with defense. Obviously, the cold weather was part of that, but the Buffalo defensive injuries were also a big part of the Chiefs having such a dominant offensive game in the Divisional Round.

Honestly, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need any magic beans to be good in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is always good. What he needs are magic beans for his receivers and his offensive line. Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling continue to go without drops against Baltimore? Can Travis Kelce get as open against the much better and much healthier Baltimore linebackers? Will left guard Joe Thuney play — and at what level — despite a pectoral strain? Those are the players who need to step up, because Mahomes always steps up.

And of course, on the other side of the ball, the Baltimore Ravens offense was better than the Kansas City Chiefs offense during the regular season with Lamar Jackson as the presumptive MVP. The Ravens consistently dominated the best teams on their schedule all season long. That’s how they ended up as the fifth-best regular-season team in DVOA ever. Can the Chiefs possibly do what most of the Baltimore opponents could not do, especially over the second half of the season? Can they not only come close but even topple the Ravens juggernaut and go to another Super Bowl? 

All stats are for the regular season only except for weighted DVOA and anything else noted below. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, now separated into offense and defense for each team. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s explained right here.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

The Ravens linebackers and safeties are going to play a huge role in this game because the Chiefs aren’t going to be able to have as much success by going heavy. They could take advantage of all those Buffalo linebacker injuries and enjoy Travis Kelce against A.J. Klein. Now, Travis Kelce will be covered by Kyle Hamilton or Roquan Smith most of the time. That’s a much harder matchup.

Last week, the Chiefs used 12 or 13 personnel with multiple tight ends on the majority of their offensive plays. They had 100% offensive DVOA and 8.8 yards per play with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bills matched this personnel primarily with a nickel package. The Ravens don’t have to do that. They certainly can match the extra tight ends with a nickel package, and get Geno Stone on the field as a third safety instead of using three cornerbacks. That’s a better nickel package to use against the tight ends. Or, they could go base and have more protection against the run.

All season long, the Chiefs were not as good against base defense. They had just 4.7 yards per play and -8% offensive DVOA against base defense. The Ravens were better in nickel than base, but they were very good in both packages. You can really see the difference when the Chiefs go to 12 personnel. Kansas City’s 12 personnel against base defense had 4.4 yards per play and -12% DVOA. Kansas City’s 12 personnel against nickel, including the playoffs, had 6.1 yards per play and 25% DVOA. There was a similar but even larger split if we look at 13 personnel against base compared to 13 personnel against nickel.

Staying in a base package would also help the Ravens run defense to stop Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco runs hard but the Chiefs did not have an efficient running game this season. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs were just 17th in run offense DVOA this year. Ravens fans think of run defense as the team’s weakness but they still ranked fifth in the league. Surprisingly, the biggest hole in the Ravens defense comes up the middle, so those linebackers are going to have to step it up on running plays. Kansas City’s offense ranked second in adjusted line yards on runs up the middle, while the Ravens defense was only 18th.

Running on the Ravens on first down might be a good strategy for the Chiefs. The Ravens defense was first in the league against the pass on first downs but only 19th against the run. The Chiefs offense was 18th passing and 16th rushing on first down during the regular season.

The Chiefs were also only 21st on third-and-long during the regular season. That seems insane given how good Mahomes has been on third-and-long in the past, but again, Mahomes still needs receivers to get open and catch the ball. The Ravens had the No. 1 defense on third-and-long. However, the Ravens were sixth on third-and-short, where the Chiefs were the No. 1 offense.

When the Chiefs pass the ball, a relative weakness of the Ravens is covering opposing No. 1 receivers, where they ranked just 12th in DVOA. This could be a good game for Rashee Rice, as we know Mahomes wants to mostly get the ball to Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco. This relative weakness is even more of a weakness if Marlon Humphrey is still out with the calf injury that kept him out of the last couple of games. All of the Ravens cornerbacks had good coverage DVOA except for Arthur Maulet, but Humphrey is the best. Maulet won’t play very much if Humphrey is on the field.

During the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 20th in DVOA against man coverage but seventh against zone coverage. That makes sense, with Kelce in particular an expert at getting open in zones. However, the Ravens were the No. 1 team in zone coverage. They were eighth in man coverage. They probably want to play more zone not only because it is their strength but because that will cut down on Patrick Mahomes‘ ability to take off on scrambles. As is often said about Mahomes, his top speed is exactly 1 mph faster than whoever happens to be chasing him at the time.

Charting data also shows that the Ravens play best with the middle of the field closed. They had the league’s best DVOA in Cover 3 and the third-best DVOA in Cover 1. They were “only” eighth in Cover 4 and sixth in Cover 2. Kansas City was a little bit better against MOFC coverages than against MOFO coverages, so that’s a matchup of strength against strength.

The Ravens were the best defense in the NFL against deep passes, 16 or more air yards. They ranked eighth against shorter passes. Mahomes this year threw short more often than the NFL average, and Kansas City built on those passes with a lot of yards after the catch. The Chiefs averaged 6.4 YAC, second in the NFL behind the 49ers. However, the Ravens were excellent at preventing YAC, especially on short passes. The Ravens were also below average in missed tackles according to PFR. Here’s a look at each team and the average YAC based on the length of the completions:

Lastly, there’s the question of pass pressure. The Ravens led the NFL in sacks but PFR lists them as just 23rd in pressure rate. However, the Chiefs ranked 24th in pressure allowed on offense. And here’s the wild thing from this season: Mahomes was terrible in 2023 when he was under pressure. This is very, very different from other seasons where Mahomes was always one of the best quarterbacks under pressure. This year, when the quarterback was pressured (not including sacks), the Chiefs ranked 29th in DVOA with the second-most interceptions in the NFL. This is really where the receiving corps may come into play, not necessarily thinking the same thing as Mahomes on scramble drills or unable to hold on when he got the ball downfield under pressure. It’s hard to imagine that Mahomes himself is suddenly a completely different guy under pressure.

In the past, the rule was to never, ever blitz Mahomes. This year, Mahomes was about the same with and without a blitz. The Ravens defense was also about the same with and without a blitz. Their blitz rate was surprisingly low, just 25th in the NFL.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL

I normally start these previews by looking at the passing game, but in the case of this matchup it makes sense to turn first to Baltimore’s running game. The Ravens have a huge advantage over the Chiefs defense on the ground. Baltimore had the best run offense DVOA in the league. That doesn’t include Lamar Jackson scrambles, by the way; only planned runs count. Kansas City’s defense ranked 27th in run defense DVOA.

The Ravens’ biggest advantage is running right up the middle. They ranked sixth in adjusted line yards on middle runs, where the Chiefs defense was 22nd. And check out this graphic of success rate by run concept according to FTN Data charting.

The Ravens’ advantage over the Chiefs on power concepts is massive. Or let’s look at short-yardage runs specifically. The Ravens were third with a conversion rate of 79% on these runs. The Chiefs were dead last by allowing a conversion rate of 80%. The Chiefs ranked 29th in DVOA against designed runs by quarterbacks but that was mostly allowing success on quarterback sneaks rather than draws, read options, and other keepers.

Kansas City was average on defense against quarterback scrambles, but that means giving up 7.3 yards per carry. Quarterback scrambles are very efficient plays. The Chiefs allowed 48 yards on five scrambles against Josh Allen last week. Lamar Jackson is definitely going to get some scramble yards.

The one place where the Chiefs run defense isn’t a problem is tackling, as the Chiefs were near the bottom of the league in missed tackles.

Kansas City’s pass defense is much better than its run defense, ranking fifth in DVOA this season. The Chiefs played best in Cover 2 and Cover 3 according to NGS data, with -18% defensive DVOA. Teams rarely play Cover 2 against the Ravens, who face a lot more Cover 3. Those zones are good because they might be able to limit Jackson scrambling. You do not want to play man and turn your back against Lamar Jackson.

Playing more zone does limit how much L’Jarius Sneed can specifically slow down any one receiver. Sneed was clearly the Chiefs’ best cornerback this season with -23% coverage DVOA but even if he was assigned to shadow the best Ravens receiver, I’m not sure who the Chiefs would consider that to be. Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham? Note that nickelback Trent McDuffie only had -1% coverage DVOA despite making the All-Pro team. Joshua Williams was at +1% and Jaylen Watson was at +5%. However, all four of the Chiefs cornerbacks improved in the second half of the season.

If the Chiefs can limit those Ravens runs or get sacks on first and second down, they’re in business on third down. The Ravens offense drops to eighth passing the ball on third and fourth down, while the Chiefs defense improves to second in the NFL. But on third-down runs, the Ravens are the best offense in the league while the Chiefs defense ranks 19th.

So then, that brings us to the question of how often the Kansas City pass rush can pressure and bring down Lamar Jackson. There’s no question that the Chiefs will bring the pressure on Jackson. The Ravens may have led the NFL in sacks but the Chiefs, who faced fewer pass attempts, were No. 1 in adjusted sack rate. (Both defenses got a boost from opponent adjustments.) Pro Football Reference lists the Chiefs second in pressure rate behind the Detroit Lions. However, they get there more from the scheme than from the personnel. The Chiefs ranked only 20th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. They were seventh in blitz rate.

The numbers point to Kansas City blitzing Jackson a lot. Jackson’s numbers against the blitz have gone down and up and then down again over the last few years. This season, however, he was much better without a blitz. With Jackson at quarterback, without a blitz, the Ravens averaged 7.2 net yards per play with 38% DVOA. With a blitz, that dropped to 5.6 net yards per play with a 6% DVOA. The Chiefs defense without a blitz allowed 5.4 net yards per play with -13% DVOA. With a blitz, they allowed 4.6 net yards per play with -21% DVOA.

Normally, this is where we talk about how good it is to get pressure with just four so you can drop seven into coverage, but the Ravens just absolutely killed that in 2023. The numbers are a bit insane. On plays without a blitz where NGS marked pass pressure, the Ravens had a league-high 72% DVOA with 8.7 net yards per pass, and while that does not include sacks, it also doesn’t include Jackson scrambles!

One other strange trend with Jackson is that he’s better throwing to the left side. He was second this year in DVOA on throws to the left side. The difference is not as big in past years, but every single year, Jackson is better throwing to the left side than the right side. Against Houston, Jackson had just six passes to the left but five were completions and all five of those were successful plays. The Chiefs’ defensive DVOA is about the same on passes to the left or right.

All this and we haven’t even talked yet about the fact that tight end Mark Andrews is likely returning to the field for the Ravens! Baltimore has done all this in 2023 without Jackson’s best receiving option for half the season. That’s OK because Isaiah Likely ranked second in receiving DVOA among qualifying tight ends behind George Kittle. Andrews was fourth before his injury. Kansas City has been strong against tight ends this year, 10th in DVOA, but I would expect Jackson to find Andrews and/or Likely for a few important and successful pass plays.

SPECIAL TEAMS

These were two of the top special teams units in a year where there really weren’t any “top” special teams units. The Ravens finished the regular season third and the Chiefs were sixth. Both teams have very dependable kickers. Justin Tucker had an off year but is the greatest and most trustworthy kicker of all time, and Harrison Butker would have to be considered second or third right now depending on how much fondness you have for Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott. The Ravens were fantastic on punt returns this year, but Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend was outstanding in 2022 and pretty good in 2023 too. The worst element of the Ravens’ special teams in the regular season was punter Jordan Stout and the punt coverage; Kansas City’s value on punt returns was dragged down by two Montrell Washington fumbles but Richie James, who will probably be returning punts on Sunday, was slightly above average. Both teams were good on kickoff distance and average on kickoff coverage in the rare cases that opponents returned a kickoff. Frankly, either team could pull off a big special teams play but it’s more likely that the two kickers are the main conduit for special teams to play a role in this game.

OUTLOOK

The Baltimore Ravens have the highest weighted DVOA ever for a team entering the conference championships. Ten of the top 14 teams previously ended up winning a Super Bowl. Only two of those teams lost in the conference championship. It’s not a guarantee that Baltimore is going to win this game, especially with Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the field. Mahomes certainly does special things, particularly in the playoffs against the toughest competition. But it’s hard to imagine that the rest of the Chiefs’ offensive players have gotten over their issues all of a sudden just because of one good game. In fact, the blocking will probably be even worse with Thuney out and Nick Allegretti in. The Kansas City defense has played very well this year. The offense still has Mahomes. But the Ravens have been better than the Chiefs in all three phases of the game this season. They have destroyed the best teams on their schedule, with seven wins of 14 or more points against teams with winning records. They will likely have a lot of success running the ball against the Chiefs, and Jackson is going to find a variety of receivers when he has to throw the ball. We have to favor the Baltimore Ravens to win this game and move on to Super Bowl LVIII.