Browns at Texans: DVOA Preview

This is not supposed to be happening right now.

At this point last year, the Houston Texans were fighting for the top pick in the draft – a battle they lost. They were forced to settle for second-choice quarterback C.J. Stroud. A new head coach in his first time in the job, an offensive coordinator with no experience calling plays, rookies dotted up and down the lineup. This was a recipe for growing pains and progress measured in fits and starts, not a playoff berth. And yet here they are, with their best DVOA since 2018 and a 9-6 record when their starting quarterback was healthy. One-year turnarounds like this are, by far, the exception rather than the norm, and watching Houston have success immediately has been one of the better stories of the year.

And the Cleveland Browns, of course, laugh at the concept of the healthy starting quarterback. They are only the second team ever to make the playoffs while starting five different passers. You’re not supposed to be able to overcome that much turmoil and bad luck at the most important position in football. And yet, behind an all-time great defensive performance and Joe Flacco finding the fountain of youth, the Cleveland Browns have their best DVOA since 2007. Watching Kevin Stefanski kitbash a functional offense together despite losing stars left and right to injury and somehow coming out the other side with a team that is legitimately good, as opposed to a playoff team by default, has been one of the better stories of the year.

Stories have to end, one way or another, and if it’s anything like their Week 16 game, it won’t end pretty for the Texans. Cleveland whomped Houston 36-22 on Christmas Eve, a score that was padded a couple Houston garbage-time touchdowns. Texans fans will be quick to point out that it was Davis Mills, not Stroud, starting that game, and that’s a significant drop-off. Browns fans will be equally quick to point out that Stroud probably wouldn’t have stopped Amari Cooper from going off for a franchise-record 265 receiving yards.

As for the oddsmakers, they’ve made the Browns 2.5-point road favorites, making it the closet contest of the wild-card round. By DVOA, this should be even closer than that, with a projected line of just 0.7 for Cleveland after accounting for a healthy Stroud. A toss-up in the truest sense of the word, and a fantastic way to start the playoffs. Will the return of Stroud be enough for Houston to solve the riddle of Jim Schwart’s swarming defense? Can Flacco’s improbable run since being plucked off the couch continue? We’ll find out in arguably the best game of the weekend.

All stats are for the regular season only. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, not just offense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL

Statistical analysis is important, of course, but sometimes nuanced film study is necessary to really get to the heart of the deeper issues at play. Small subtleties can emerge when watching the All-22 that you don’t necessarily get from a percentage or a spreadsheet. For example, careful study of the film suggests that if you defense looks like this when trying to cover Amari Cooper, you probably are going to have a bad time. That’s the kind of trenchant analysis you’ve come to expect from us over the years.

It should be noted, of course, that Houston was not at full strength last time these two teams played. Up front, both Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard were absent, and it showed. Houston has a 30.1% pressure rate on the season, per FTN Data charting, but only managed to pressure Flacco on six of his 43 dropbacks back on Christmas Eve. It’s not as simple as ‘bring pressure, win games’, because Flacco still was 4-for-6 for 42 yards when Houston did manage to bring heat, but having their two top pass-rushers back certainly wouldn’t hurt Houston’s chances! While neither have practiced yet as of time of writing, we do expect both to suit up on Saturday.

Judging Cleveland’s offense by their season-long DVOA numbers is, of course, complete nonsense; only six of Cleveland’s Week 1 starters are going to play this week. In the five games where Flacco has been under center, Cleveland’s offensive DVOA jumps to 2.5%, which would have ranked 13th this season. Their passing DVOA improves to 24.5% (12th) and their rushing DVOA declines slightly to -15.4% (24th); as solid as Jerome Ford has been, he’s not Nick Chubb. It’d be a stretch to call the offense good, per se, but squeezing an above average performance out of a quarterback who was quite firmly retired two months ago has been a minor miracle from Kevin Stefanski.

Flacco understands he’s playing with house money at the moment, and his play style reflects it. He’s thrown at least one interception in all five games he’s started – including twice against Houston – and his 3.9% interception rate would be dead last in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify for the NFL’s leaderboard. But with all that risk has come consummate rewards. He’s regularly pushing the ball downfield; his aDOT of 9.3 would rank second behind only Will Levis. And enough of those deep shots are finding their way home to make his gunslinging portfolio work; 7.9 yards per attempt would rank sixth. It’s been very fun to watch.

It also does not scream sustainability. It’s a lot easier to survive a turnover or three when you’re facing offenses led by Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Justin Fields and an injured Trevor Lawrence, and backed by one of the 20 best defenses of all time. As the quality of opposition increases in the postseason, however, the damage a turnover can do increases dramatically. This may not be the week that comes back to bite them, as Houston is just 23rd against the pass and has a middling 2.5% interception percentage, but that’s always the inherent problem with a high-variance strategy like Flacco is dealing – if he’s just a touch worse than normal, say because he’s being pressured on half of his dropbacks, that high-risk strategy might end up snowballing into a three- or four-turnover game that even Cleveland’s defense can’t dig him out of.

Houston’s secondary is a concern, as injuries have left them rather depleted. Jimmie Ward got knocked out for the year against Cleveland, straining the Texans deep, and the corner play across from Derek Stingley has been questionable all year. Houston is a below average but manageable 21st in DVOA on passes to the right, but last on passes to the left. That’s Steven Nelson’s side of the field, and Houston is pretty strict about keeping their corners on one side rather than matching their top guy with the opponent’s top receiver. It is just distinctly possible that Stefanski and the Browns noticed this, because even though Flacco found much more success going to the left in the earlier matchup: 87 DYAR throwing left compared to 35 throwing right.

So Houston’s adjustments can’t just be about getting more pressure; they’re going to have ways to give Nelson more help when Cooper makes his way to his side of the field. If Flacco can just hit Cooper and David Njoku over and over on Nelson’s side of the field, Houston is not going to have much of a chance. Houston is a heavy zone team, but perhaps they’ll throw in a few more man looks for the playoffs in an attempt to blunt Cooper’s effectiveness.

It’s worth noting, however, that the advantage flips when we look at the running game. One of the reasons Flacco attempted 42 passes in a game where Cleveland was comfortably in control most of the way was an inability for the Browns to get anything going against Houston’s run defense. They averaged just 1.8 yards per carry with a 31% success rate; Jerry Hughes, Myjai Sanders and the rest of the Texans front were able to bottle Jerome Ford up and make Cleveland entirely one dimensional. That’s not going to become easier with Anderson back in the lineup. Houston has only allowed one team more than 130 rushing yards this season, although it was just last week when Jonathan Taylor managed to race all over them. That seems unlikely to repeat. A Browns win doesn’t necessarily need to have Cooper setting more franchise records or anything, but it will almost certainly have to be driven by the passing attack.

WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

C.J. Stroud was a success from Week 1 and never really looked back. Missing a couple games cost him the chance to set any all-time rookie records, but he remains one of only three rookie quarterbacks to top 1,000 DYAR, alongside Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan. He also became just the sixth rookie quarterback to qualify with a DVOA over 20%. It’s safe to say he has worked out greater than even Houston’s wildest hopes were before the season began.

Unfortunately for Houston, they’re nowhere near at top strength coming in. Tank Dell, having nearly as impressive as a rookie season as Stroud, is out for the year. Robert Woods and Noah Brown both missed last week’s game against Indianapolis; Brown still hasn’t practice with his back injury and Woods is limited with his hip. Against the Colts, Stroud just let Nico Collins go off by himself (nine targets, nine receptions, 195 yards), but Cleveland’s defense is too good to be beaten by one guy. For any of Bobby Slowik’s Shanahan-style motion and offense to work, Houston is going to need more warm bodies out there. Woods should be ready to go; Brown is a longer shot. Keep an eye on that as we get closer to game time; Houston is in serious trouble if they can’t get closer to full strength, Stroud or no Stroud.

Jim Schwartz’s defense has been phenomenal this season. They are the 18th best unit in DVOA history, stretching back to 1981. Schwartz has simplified Cleveland’s defense, letting Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronokwo stunt and twist their way into the backfield and wreak havoc. He’s made things simpler for the defense, playing his wide schemes, funneling the action inside, and letting his talented players make players rather than being confused and out of position as they often were under Joe Woods. Schwartz has a reputation of being a guy who just sends four and play man behind it, but he’s added more blitzes and wrinkles to his scheme this season; Cleveland sends extra pressure 28.8% of the time, 11th in the league. It’s working, with the Browns generating pressure on 32.4% of dropbacks and basically shutting down anything downfield. They’ve allowed only 29 deep completions this season, second-fewest behind the Jets. They’re built for big plays, ranking in the top five in both sack rate and interception rate. Simply put, this will be the most aggressive defense Stroud has faced in his short NFL career, and he’ll be tested in ways he hasn’t been to this point.

Bumps, bruises and sheer attrition has slowed Cleveland’s defense down some in the second half of the season. The Browns slipped from a -32.9% DVOA from Weeks 1-9 to -11.7% over the back half of the year. It’s fallen across the board, but it’s been most notable in run defense, where Cleveland has gone from allowing a 34% success rate and 3.8 yards per carry to 42% and 4.8, respectively. Teams have started to break Cleveland’s aggressive front down by stretching the field laterally, letting the Browns slip through the gaps only to find the running back already slipping around the right. While the Browns are still seventh in run defense DVOA over the last half of the season, the fall to 29th (9.6%) on runs charted as going to the ends or tackles. The Steelers, Broncos, Rams and Ravens all had rushing DVOAs of at least 25% against the Browns on these outside rushes over the back half of the season. That’s how you attack Schwartz’s defense – take advantage of their aggressive tendencies and let them run themselves out of the play.

Unfortunately for the Texans, they’re not built for that. Houston ranks 28th on rushes to the outside with a -16.9% DVOA. That is, technically, better than their overall rushing efficiency, but that just tells you how poor the Texans have been on the ground all season long. This doesn’t seem like the week Devin Singletary suddenly becomes the key focal point of the offense.

Instead, the Texans best bet is to spread Cleveland out, getting as much bulk as they can off the field, and then use motion to try to freeze them. Houston goes from a -8% to a 9% DVOA when opponents are in nickel and dime, while the Browns are significantly better in base (-36% DVOA to -13% DVOA). That’s another reason the health of all those receivers is paramount for Houston; they need to have viable threats that Cleveland has to respect. If they let Schwartz send his base package out, load the box and swarm their offensive line, it’s going to be a long day. 

And that’s exactly what Cleveland should do. The Browns are much better when blitzing – they go from a -16% DVOA and 5.6 yards per play when not blitzing to -45% and 3.5 when they do blitz. Stroud is much worse against the blitz, with the offense dropping from a 33% DVOA and 7.3 yards per play when not blitzed to 17% and 6.5 when defenses send extra pressure. And, if anything, the results for Houston have been even worse than the numbers. Stroud’s only thrown five interceptions, none of them coming against the blitz, but that’s not from lack of trying; he’s gotten away with some dangerous throws with extra pass rushers in his lap. If anyone can convert those errant passes into turnovers, it’s the ballhawking Cleveland secondary. As brilliant as Stroud has been, he’s still a rookie facing coverages he hasn’t seen at this level before. The Browns should be sending the house at him and forcing him to prove he can handle it.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Dustin Hopkins is unlikely to kick for Cleveland, thanks to the hamstring injury he suffered against Houston in Week 16, meaning it will be Riley Patterson again. That should only increase the advantage the Texans have over the Browns in the special teams department. Cleveland is mostly nothing special across the board – they’re actually exactly average at +0.0 on both punts and kick returns. They did rank ninth at +6.8 points added in field goals and extra points, though that’s obviously mostly with Hopkins rather than with Patterson.

Cameron Johnston has led Houston to a very respectable +5.1 points added on punts; he’s in the top five with 43.7 net yards per punt, and in the top 10 for both touchbacks and punts inside the 20. The Texans also have half of the league’s kickoff return touchdowns this season, by which we mean they have two. One was even against Cleveland in Week 16, part of what kept the game even remotely competitive after the first half. 

OUTLOOK

This is one of the harder games to pick this week. Schematically, Cleveland has an advantage on both sides of the ball, but Houston’s offensive success under Stroud seems much more sustainable than Cleveland’s success under Flacco. And yes, Stroud is a rookie facing a tough defense, but as Jim Schwartz himself was quick to point out, he’s been beaten by a rookie quarterback in the playoffs before – Flacco himself knocked Schwartz out back in 2008.

What we shouldn’t see is a replay of Week 16. Houston should be able to get the pressure they couldn’t find last time around, force some Flacco turnovers, and give their offense some short fields to work with. Having Stroud back under center means that Houston should be able to take advantage of that, too. The gap between these teams on both sides of the ball is much smaller that it appears on Christmas Eve, and we should be in for a much more competitive contest.

If I had to make a pick, I would note that Cleveland has frustrated some of the best quarterbacks in football this season. They produced Brock Purdy’s worst game of the year; they forced Lamar Jackson into a pick-six that sparked their come-from-behind victory over Baltimore. As good as Stroud has been, the Browns have found ways to stymie even the best the league has had to offer. While the Joe Flacco story is more likely than not fools gold, the Browns defense is very, very real, and I’d side with Cleveland riding that to a first-round victory.