Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Lamar Jackson had one of the best rushing games in DYAR history against the Houston Texans this weekend. He had 11 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns against one of the top run defenses in the NFL this year. That’s worth 60 DYAR, the sixth-best rushing game by a quarterback. That’s good because frankly, Jackson did not have a good first half as a passer. Jackson had -39 passing DYAR with 1.6 net yards per pass in the first half and then 82 passing DYAR with 9.1 net yards per pass in the second half.
| Top Quarterback Rushing Games by DYAR, 1981-2023 | ||||||||||||||||
| Rk | Year | Week | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Runs | Yds | TD | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1 | 2022 | 9 | J.Fields | CHI | 17/28 | 123 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 179 | 1 | 128 | 44 | 85 | MIA |
| 2 | 2002 | 13 | M.Vick | ATL | 11/28 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 173 | 2 | -4 | -86 | 82 | MIN |
| 3 | 2000 | 1 | D.Culpepper | MIN | 13/23 | 190 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 81 | 3 | 78 | 10 | 68 | CHI |
| 4 | 2012 | DIV | C.Kaepernick | SF | 17/31 | 263 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 183 | 2 | 150 | 87 | 63 | GB |
| 5 | 2012 | 6 | R.Griffin | WAS | 17/22 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 140 | 2 | 98 | 36 | 61 | MIN |
| 6 | 2023 | DIV | L.Jackson | BAL | 16/22 | 152 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 100 | 2 | 103 | 43 | 60 | HOU |
| 7 | 2014 | 5 | R.Wilson | SEA | 18/24 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 122 | 1 | 46 | -13 | 59 | WAS |
| 8 | 2022 | 9 | J.Allen | BUF | 18/34 | 205 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 86 | 2 | -27 | -86 | 59 | NYJ |
| 9 | 2014 | 7 | R.Wilson | SEA | 23/36 | 313 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 106 | 1 | 190 | 132 | 58 | STL |
| 10 | 2010 | 15 | M.Vick | PHI | 21/35 | 242 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 131 | 1 | 122 | 65 | 57 | NYG |
| 11 | 2022 | 3 | L.Jackson | BAL | 18/29 | 218 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 165 | 108 | 57 | NE |
| 12 | 2020 | 14 | L.Jackson | BAL | 11/16 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 124 | 2 | 113 | 57 | 56 | CLE |
For those curious, the best quarterback rushing game prior to 2000 belongs to Randall Cunningham in Week 9 of 1990 (8-124-1 for 50 DYAR vs. the Patriots).
Jackson had a great day as a runner and half a great day as a passer, but Patrick Mahomes had a whole game so he’s our top quarterback of the week by DYAR.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 17/23 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 163 | 6 | BUF |
| Mahomes only had 2.8 net yards per pass on third down, but he only had to throw a pass on third down four times. | |||||||||||
| 2. | Josh Allen | BUF | 26/39 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 102 | 20 | KC |
| 3. | Jared Goff | DET | 30/43 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 106 | 99 | 8 | TB |
| Goff had 4 passing DYAR and 4.1 net yards per pass in the first half, then 94 passing DYAR and 8.3 net yards per pass in the second half. Goff also had most of his value (80 passing DYAR, 7.5 net yards per pass) on first downs. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 16/22 | 152 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 103 | 43 | 60 | HOU |
| Jackson had just -29 passing DYAR and 3.4 net yards per pass on first downs. | |||||||||||
| 5. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 20/33 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 69 | -4 | BAL |
| 6. | Brock Purdy | SF | 23/38 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50 | 51 | -2 | GB |
| Purdy had 51 passing DYAR and 7.4 net yards per pass in the first half and then 0 passing DYAR with 5.5 net yards per pass in the second half. | |||||||||||
| 7. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 26/41 | 349 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 37 | 7 | DET |
| Mayfield was worth 95 passing DYAR on first downs (9.4 net yards per pass) but -55 passing DYAR on second downs and -21 passing DYAR on third downs. | |||||||||||
| 8. | Jordan Love | GB | 21/34 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 64 | -26 | SF |
| Love had 71 passing DYAR and 7.5 net yards per pass in the first half, then -7 passing DYAR and 6.3 net yards per pass in the second half. (Net yards per pass numbers here include DPI flags.) Love’s negative rushing value here is all on the aborted pitch to Aaron Jones which is technically attributed to Love but wasn’t necessarily his fault. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 9 | 74 | 1 | 4/4 | 40 | 0 | 62 | 41 | 21 | TB |
| Gibbs gained at least 5 yrads on seven carries out of nine, with one of the other carries being four yards to convert second-and-3. | ||||||||||||
| 2. | Rachaad White | TB | 9 | 55 | 0 | 4/5 | 36 | 1 | 55 | 21 | 34 | DET |
| White converted third-and-long twice with receptions, including his touchdown. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 15 | 97 | 1 | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 40 | 30 | 10 | BUF |
| Pacheco had four first downs and a touchdown, with seven carries of 6 or more yards. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Justice Hill | BAL | 13 | 66 | 0 | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 10 | HOU |
| 5. | Emanuel Wilson | GB | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | SF |
| 6. | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 17 | 98 | 2 | 7/12 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 38 | -30 | GB |
| The weird thing here is McCaffrey’s very abnormal negative value on receptions, where he didn’t have one greater than 9 yards and had only one first-down conversion on 12 targets. He gained zero yards on seven targets: five incompletes and two 0-yard catches. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | James Cook | BUF | 18 | 61 | 0 | 4/5 | 21 | 0 | -9 | -7 | -2 | KC |
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Travis Kelce | KC | 5 | 6 | 75 | 15.0 | 2 | 45 | BUF |
| All five of Kelce’s catches earned a first down or a touchdown. | |||||||||
| 2. | Mike Evans | TB | 8 | 12 | 147 | 18.4 | 1 | 44 | DET |
| Evans would be at 54 YAR without opponent adjustments. He had six catches of 15 or more yards, including the 24-yard gain on fourth-and-14 in the fourth quarter. | |||||||||
| 3. | Bo Melton | GB | 1 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 40 | SF |
| Melton had only two targets but they were a 19-yard touchdown and a 41-yard DPI gain that came on third-and-15. | |||||||||
| 4. | Romeo Doubs | GB | 4 | 6 | 83 | 20.8 | 0 | 37 | SF |
| This includes a 13-yard gain on DPI, one of three conversions for Doubs on third down with at least 6 yards to go (out of four opportunities). | |||||||||
| 5. | Rashee Rice | KC | 4 | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 | 24 | BUF |
| This includes a questionable 3-yard Buffalo DPI that moved the chains on third-and-6, the only DPI committed this weekend by a team other than the 49ers. | |||||||||
| 6. | Cade Otton | TB | 5 | 8 | 65 | 13.0 | 1 | 23 | DET |
| Otton moved the chains five times, including the touchdown grab. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Stefon Diggs | BUF | 3 | 8 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | -30 | KC |
|
There’s no adjustment here for dropping perfect deep passes, but Diggs had only one first down and fumbled on the Bills’ first drive. |
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