Rams at Lions: DVOA Preview

Lions fans celebrated Christmas a day early when safety Ifeatu Melifonwu intercepted a wobbly Nick Mullens pass to secure the Lions’ first division title since 1993 – back when they played in the now-defunct NFC Central.  But a Vikings rematch two weeks later ended their victory tour rather abruptly.  Dan Campbell had played his starters in a Week 18 game almost certainly made meaningless by referee Brad Allen’s controversial ineligible player penalty call at the end of the Lions’ loss to the Cowboys that prior weekend.  And while Campbell’s push for aggressiveness and toughness had likely contributed to his team’s long-awaited return to contender status, it also halted their perceived momentum when star rookie tight end Sam LaPorta hyperextended his knee and became a long shot to play on Wild-Card Weekend.  To make matters worse for Lions fans, a Carson Wentz win over a resting 49ers team jumped his Rams from the seventh to the sixth NFC seed.  And now Detroit has to face a Rams team they appointed as their big brother when they traded their long-time quarterback and face of their franchise Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff and draft picks to kick off the Campbell rebuild – and a Rams team whose 7-1 second-half record labels them as one of the hottest teams in football.

Stafford saw immediate success with a Super Bowl win in his first year in Los Angeles, and that seemed to cement the narratives that the Lions held him back and that Goff held Rams head coach Sean McVay back.  Goff had all the arm talent you could want in a No. 1 draft pick.  But he had a perceived inability to read defenses by their pre-snap alignments.  And that spurred McVay to hold Goff’s hand through pre-snap headset communications, and it led to the Rams’ untimely undoing when Bill Belichick beat them in Super Bowl LIII by having his defense change alignments after the 15-second headset cutoffs. Two years later, I wasn’t the only analyst that saw Goff as the price the Lions had to pay to retrieve a pair of first-round draft picks in the Stafford trade.

But then something unexpected happened.  Goff got better with the Lions.  He jumped from -1.1% and -3.6% passing DVOA rates in his final Rams and first Lions seasons in 2020 and 2021 to 24.8% and 22.3% rates the last two years that ranked fourth and third among regular quarterbacks.  The Lions have won because of Goff this season, not despite him. And for all the fear that this Lions team could lose the way their last eight playoff teams have lost — immediately in the Wild-Card round — Goff looks on paper like the quarterback who could end the streak and exorcise Detroit’s broader and Rams-specific demons.  And maybe even lead the Lions on their own Super Bowl run in an NFC left somewhat open by the recent decline of the reigning conference champion Eagles.

All stats are for the regular season only. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, not just offense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL

The Rams look less like the hottest team in football by their 1.8% weighted DVOA — just 16th best — than they do by their 7-1 record in the second half of the season.  But that bearishness stems from a consistently bottom-third defense and consistently terrible special teams, not from their offense.  The Rams jumped from a neutral 0.3% offensive DVOA (16th) from Weeks 1 to 9 to a 24.5% offensive DVOA (3rd) from Weeks 10 to 17 — excluding Week 18 when they and their 49ers opponent rested several starters.  Only the historically great 49ers (35.9%) and Ravens (27.4%) were better on offense in the second half.

The Rams can point to several reasons for their offensive improvement. The most obvious is health.  Star receiver Cooper Kupp pulled his hamstring in training camp, aggravated it in August, and missed the first month of the regular season.  Stafford may have started the season hurt after his 2022 campaign ended early with elbow and spinal cord injuries.  And he suffered a new injury in a sprained the UCL in his right thumb and missed half of Week 8 and all of Week 9 leading into a Week 10 bye.  Unexpected star running back Kyren Williams missed the middle third of the season with an ankle injury, and now healthy, he seems likely to be a key player in this playoff matchup.  The Lions have the best run defense in football, but Williams adds an extra dimension as a plus YAC receiver that his predecessors Cam Akers and Royce Freeman didn’t provide.  And even the No. 1 Ravens pass defense couldn’t keep the Rams with a healthy Stafford, Williams, Kupp, Puka Nacua, and a late-ascending Demarcus Robinson under 30 points in mid-December.

The second reason is their youth.  It’s easy to forget in light of the players Williams and Nacua have become, but the Rams looked like a rebuilding roster with their 14 drafted rookies and 36 rookies in total at the start of training camp.  GM Les Snead has made a habit of trading picks for more immediate veteran contributors — the team hasn’t made a first-round draft pick since they took Goff in 2016.  But Snead was finally ready to pay the penalty for it this season, shedding veterans like Allen Robinson, Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, and Bobby Wagner and ballooning from $26.6 million to $79.4 million in dead cap, the second most in football.  It wasn’t a surprise that the Rams played poorly to start the season, even with unexpected, immediate contributions from the fifth-round rookie receiver Nacua and second-round rookie guard Steve Avila — who played every snap this season and allowed just one sack.  It is a surprise that they found their stride in the second half of the year.  And it’s a credit to McVay and his staff as talent developers.

The third reason is the scheme.  Beyond his talent development, McVay has an almost unmatched ability to bend his offense to suit the strengths and avoid the weaknesses of his players.  When he traded Goff for Stafford, McVay dialed back on his under-center, play-action calls and ratcheted up the shotgun spread calls that his new quarterback preferred and could handle with his arm strength and experience as a defense-reader.  And with a hodgepodge of undersized, quicker-than-fast receivers, McVay has leaned into pre-snap motion to hunt for mismatches and avoid press coverage.  Kupp, Nacua, and Tutu Atwell all ranked top 12 among wide receivers this year with 123 or more plays with pre-snap motion. And the Rams as a team used motion on 65.9% of their plays, second most in the league. 

Expect a ton of Rams motion this Sunday night because, while the Lions have their L.A. connections in Goff and GM Brad Holmes, they don’t have a Shanahan disciple on their staff.  Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn came up on Sean Payton’s Saints. And offensive coordinator Ben Johnson worked under several non-Shanahan-tree coaches — Campbell briefly included — with the Dolphins.  The pre-snap motion leaderboard is a who’s who of Shanahan disciples in McVay, McVay’s former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, Kyle Shanahan himself, and Kyle’s former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.  And the Lions’ lesser familiarity with that system seemed to show in their marked defensive decline when facing motion this year.  Against motion, the Lions allowed the eighth-highest EPA per play (0.095) and bested only an uninspiring group of teams in the Chargers, Cardinals, Commanders, Panthers, Seahawks, Giants, and Broncos.

The Lions have two major defensive hopes.  The first is that their front can control the line of scrimmage.  As mentioned, they have the best run defense in football by DVOA.  And former No. 2 pick Aidan Hutchison made a leap in his sophomore season and led all defenders with 78 pass pressures.  The Lions have been a bit worse when they have blitzed this season (16% DVOA versus 3% without blitzes), but Stafford has been dramatically worse when he’s faced blitzes.  Campbell could easily lean into his aggressive mindset and bring frequent extra rushers.  And he could conceivably disrupt Stafford with that approach before Kupp, Nacua, and company can take advantage of what has been an underwhelming defensive backfield.

Their other hope is that they aren’t the same defense now that they were when they pulled down their various ratings in the middle months of the regular season. The Lions yo-yoed from a -12.0% pass defense DVOA (4th) from Weeks 1 to 6 to 29.5% (31st) from Weeks 7 to 14 and then 1.1% (16th) from Weeks 15 to 18.  And that roller coaster loosely followed some personnel changes in their secondary.  Veteran safety and 2022 league interceptions leader C.J. Gardner-Johnson missed Weeks 3 to 17 with a pectoral injury but returned to play in the season finale.  Fellow safety Ifeatu Melifonwu missed the bulk of his first two and a half seasons with myriad injuries but broke out with a flurry of sacks, pass breakups, and interceptions after a massive jump in his playing time in the final month this year. And Kindle Vildor replaced a benched Jerry Jacobs as the second outside corner in the last few weeks.  That latter move may be the only one that moves the needle for the Lions in pass coverage — Gardner-Johnson had an unseemly 32% coverage success rate in his healthier 2022 season, and Melifonwu found his professional footing only after a position switch from cornerback to safety.  But the Lions’ best bet for defensive success this Sunday may be with turnovers.  And a new-look safety rotation with Gardner-Johnson, Melifonwu, and team interceptions leader Kerby Joseph seems best-equipped to make those happen.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

Goff has built a big sample of passing efficiency these last two seasons. But it isn’t just that McVay chose to trade him for Stafford.  There are statistical reasons to doubt that Goff’s passing DVOA finishes capture his true standing at the position.

The Lions enjoyed a relatively easy schedule of opponents this year with just the 20th hardest schedule per DVOA.  They started strong in upsetting the Super Bowl champion Chiefs on kickoff Thursday.  But the perceived quality of that win dropped as the Chiefs receivers continued to drop passes.  And without conference standouts like the 49ers or Eagles — or even the surging Rams — on their schedule, the Lions had just two more chances for statement wins. And they blew the former with a 38-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 7, and they lost the latter however you feel they lost it to the Cowboys in Week 17.

Goff has dramatic home/road splits.  His Ravens loss was on the road — and with substantial wind — in Baltimore. And both in 2023 in general and in his three-year Lions tenure, Goff has completed a markedly higher percentage of his passes for more yards per attempt and thrown twice as many or more touchdowns per game at home in Detroit.

And Goff continues to struggle with pressure.  When clean, Goff mirrored his standout DVOA rate with top six completion percentage and yards per attempt averages and an exceptional 27-5 touchdown-interception ratio.  But when pressured, he slipped to the bottom half of regular starters with his rates and with a 3-7 touchdown-interception ratio.

Those splits seem likely to bite Goff and the Lions eventually.  But they might not bite them this Sunday.  The Lions will play the Rams in Detroit, and their home dome stadium should do more than make Goff more comfortable.  Despite Dan Campbell’s stated desire for a team of knee-cap-biters, the 2023 Lions look surprisingly similar to the latter-day “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams.  First-round rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs echoes the versatile Marshall Faulk.  And Amon-Ra St. Brown and an ascending Jameson Williams complement like the smooth route-running Isaac Bruce and speedy Torry Holt.  In the ideal indoor conditions, they should have plenty of opportunities for explosive plays.

And just because McVay and his defensive coordinator Raheem Morris know that Goff is sensitive to pressure doesn’t mean they can conjure it with their defensive talent or scheme.  Aaron Donald is on the wrong side of 30 and may now be mortal — he had more pressures in 2021 than he did in 2022 and 2023 combined.  Byron Young’s 35 pressures are more accurately considered impressive for a rookie than impressive for a top-tier pass rusher in general.  And the Lions boast six career Pro Bowls among their offensive linemen Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson, and Taylor Decker. They rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and first in adjusted line yards.

McVay and Morris might be tempted to lean on the blitz.  But that hasn’t been the skeleton key to stopping Goff this year.

The Rams might be better served to scheme to confuse Goff with stunts, delayed rushes, and corner blitzes — anything that might muddy the picture and spur him to hold the ball.  But even that would be a challenge since the Lions lean on their play-action passing game to create time for Goff to process.  And Goff does not feel pressured to throw downfield just because of a successful play-fake.  Goff averaged a full air yard less on his play-action attempts than on his traditional dropbacks this season.  And he saw almost two extra yards after the catch on those shorter play-action attempts. The Lions have the skill talent to turn conservative plays into explosive ones.

The decisive question may be how critical LaPorta was or is to that skill talent’s success.  Goff was a surprisingly more efficient passer with LaPorta off than on the field this season. But the team’s rushing offense nosedived from 0.103 to -0.010 EPA per run play without their rookie tight end, and that makes sense given his heralded Rob Gronkowski-like versatility as a receiver and as a blocker.  The Rams could conceivably short-circuit Goff’s passing offense if they can consistently keep David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs behind the sticks on early downs.  And if the Lions need that extra tight end help to spur their league-best run-blocking, they will either need LaPorta to play through his injury or they will put a lot of pressure on Brock Wright, who himself missed the last three games with a hip injury.

Not that former blocking tight end Dan Campbell would have it any other way.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Lions were a boringly average special teams unit this season.  And that’s good because the Rams special teams demands a lot of ink.

The Rams weren’t just the worst special teams in 2023.  With a -9.2% DVOA, they were nearly three times as bad as the Packers (-3.2%) as the second worst in the league.  That’s an impressive accomplishment in an era when players can fair catch kickoffs and take the ball to the 25-yard line, and they owe the bulk of it to their field goal kickers.  Veteran Brett Maher missed 6 of his 23 field goal attempts in the first two months and was handed his walking papers after three misses — one of which was an extra point — in a one-score loss to the Steelers in Week 7.  But Maher’s replacement Lucas Havrisik fared just as poorly with 5 missed field goals in 20 attempts and three missed extra points, and the Rams released him and re-signed Maher for Week 18 and presumably the playoffs. The Rams would be a massive favorite for a critical missed field goal this weekend if the Chiefs and Bills games weren’t facing forecasts of sub-freezing temperatures and high winds.

But the Rams won’t be in the clear even if Maher rediscovers his 2022 Cowboys form in the dome in Detroit.  They ranked bottom 10 in net kickoff and punt return yardage and sabotaged what would have been the signature win of their second-half surge by allowing a walk-off Tylan Wallace punt return touchdown in their overtime loss to the Ravens. The Lions may not have their normal punt returner Kalif Raymond, who was also injured in an unimportant Week 18.  But a substitute like St. Brown or Donovan Peoples-Jones would still be a major threat to score or at least flip field position on a punt this Sunday.

OUTLOOK

The Rams enter the weekend as three-point underdogs, but I suspect the public views them through the same sun-shaded lenses that they do their home city. The Rams have the star quarterback in Stafford.  They have the star coach in McVay.  They have the star receivers in Kupp and Nacua and the star running back in Williams. And they’ve won seven of their last eight games.  They’re simply a sexier pick, and they are a reasonable pick to win multiple games in a shaky NFC playoff bracket.

But I believe the Lions deserve their status as favorites, and not just for their traditional home-field advantage.  The Lions are deeper, and they are more balanced.  They may not have skill-player stars, but they have playmakers in St. Brown, Williams, and Gibbs.  They should win in both trenches.  And even with a wild-card decision-maker in Campbell, they should win the smaller battles on fourth downs and on special teams that have a way of combining to make a very big difference.  History is hardly on their side.  But Campbell and Goff seem to me to have the right dispositions to stare down a perceived Lions playoff curse, play to their potential, and advance Detroit to its first divisional round since Barry Sanders was 23 years old in 1991.