Scott Spratt's Articles

Will Levis and C.J. Stroud have followed touchdown outbursts with unsustainable expected touchdown surpluses with some immediate regression in their relative scoring letdowns the last few weeks. If they make the case for my touchdown regression research, can you trust it and continue to play Tony Pollard? I’ll make the case why I think you […]

The Chiefs’, Eagles’ and Dolphins’ byes are unequivocable bad news for traditional fantasy players. But in DFS, the absences of stars like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts open opportunities for some less conventional DFS stacks to take down GPP contests. And hopefully my Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 10 can help you […]

Week 10 takes the Week 9 quarterback injury fallout and raises it with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa byes. You will likely need to dip into the waiver wire to fill out your lineups this week. And hopefully my Start and Sit column for Week 10 can help you make those best lineup […]

With his five total touchdowns and game-winning touchdown drive with just 46 seconds left in the fourth quarter, C.J. Stroud left little doubt for his franchise quarterback status in Week 9. But that performance stirred a bunch of fantasy questions that I will address in my Touchdown Regression Model article for Week 9. Each week […]

Joe Burrow’s hip recovery could breathe new life into his Bengals wide receivers in fantasy. But Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase aren’t my only Bengals DFS favorites this week. This is my Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 9. Each week, I run the weekly player projections I use as a foundation for my […]

Week 8 was a quarterback injury apocalypse. And with traditional fantasy options like Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and even Joshua Dobbs unavailable, you may be surprised by the quarterbacks you should start in fantasy this week. My Start and Sit column for Week 9 can help you sort it out.   The positional rankings and […]

Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins provided the touchdown story of Week 8. But before you plan the rookie’s Hall-of-Fame parade, you should read my Touchdown Regression Model article and consider how sustainable such an explosive-play driven touchdown outburst can be. Each week, I calculate expected touchdown totals based on where on the field players throw, […]

The full slate of Week 8 games spurs a dizzying number of potential DFS lineup combinations. But it also increases the potential for value with an extra six teams with the potential for underpriced players.   This is my Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 8. Each week, I run the weekly player […]

The full schedule of Week 8 games may save you from your bye-week troubles. But it may add a different sort of fantasy conundrum with formerly obvious fantasy starters like Trevor Lawrence, Najee Harris and Michael Thomas suddenly near the start-or-sit line. Which brand names should you sit this week? Read my Start and Sit […]

The six Week 7 byes left no shortage of expected touchdown stories. D’Onta Foreman paced a short-handed Bears team and the field at his position with three total touchdowns. The Browns backs combined for three scores and a critical injury. And Geno Smith and Jared Goff took opposite turns in their respective career renaissances.    […]

Week 7 has six bye teams and may push you to leverage your DFS lineups to your Dolphins-Eagles, Chargers-Chiefs and Lions-Ravens passing stacks. That may be a fine idea, but be sure to read my Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 7 before you lock in those lineups.    Each week, I run […]

Week 7 wreaks the first major havoc on fantasy rosters in 2023 with six teams on bye. The situation is dire at tight end. But even definitive No. 2 running backs like Tyler Allgeier, Kareem Hunt and AJ Dillon may belong in your undermanned lineups this week. Who should you start for your resting star […]

Travis Etienne added another layer to the mystery of smaller players with the nickname “Tank” with his second consecutive two-touchdown performance on Sunday. And he blazed a trail of positive touchdown regression that 2023 shortfall sufferers like Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, DeAndre Hopkins and others seem likely to follow.    I’ll explain that and more […]

As is often the case, injuries have swept the NFL by mid-October. And while star absences have opened the door for major DFS discounts for some backups-turned-starters, I view some popular choices as players to fade in fantasy this week. This is the Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 6. Each week, I […]

For most, revenge games are about the motivation rather than the execution. Sean Payton told USA Today reporter Jarrett Bell that Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” in 2022, and Hackett naturally circled the Week 5 Jets-Broncos matchup on his calendar.   Hackett’s players mobbed and […]

The NFL has trended toward backfield time shares in recent seasons. But those seem to be ramping up further in Week 6 with Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Javonte Williams and maybe more traditional starters ceding extra time to their traditional backups. Which No. 1’s and which No. 2’s should you start […]

Justin Fields’ and Lamar Jackson’s efforts to pass more in 2023 saw dramatically different results in Week 5. But those results may not mean what you expect for their fantasy potential going forward. I’ll explain in my Touchdown Regression Model article for Week 5.    Each week, I calculate expected touchdown totals based on where […]

With star players like Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Cooper Kupp poised to hopefully return to their lineups this week, September DFS values like Zack Moss and Puka Nacua may lose some luster. But there are still plenty of salary shortfalls out there. This is the Underpriced and Overpriced DFS Players column for Week 5. […]

The NFL always surprises, and September seemed to flip the conventional wisdom on rookie learning curves. Jahmyr Gibbs has taken a back seat to David Montgomery in Detroit. Jordan Addison plays less than K.J. Osborn in Minnesota. And Sam LaPorta has the most catches in a tight end’s first four career starts since Mike Ditka. […]

The Dolphins suffered some immediate karma from their 50-point Week 3 Broncos beatdown with a 28-point loss to the Bills in Week 4. But that comeuppance only added to the team’s touchdown intrigue. I’ll help make sense of it with my Touchdown Regression Model for Week 4. Each week, I calculate expected touchdown totals based […]

Mike Williams suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 3 and joined Aaron Rodgers among the star players poised to miss the rest of the 2023 season. It stinks for Chargers fans and for football fans in general. But it does create opportunities for Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston in his offense with plenty of […]

Players like Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Zack Moss, Tutu Atwell and Sam LaPorta have played so well to start the 2023 season that they’ve erased the mystery of their start-or-sit status. But plenty of other players remain close to that critical fantasy benchmark. My Start and Sit column for Week 4 can help who to […]

I’m not sure if Bradley Chubb wanted revenge on the team that traded him, or if every Dolphins player and coach wanted revenge on their Adam Gase-era former DC Vance Joseph. But the Dolphins sure found some in a 70-20 beatdown of the Broncos that is sure to distort future touchdown expectations for the team. […]

The slew of early-season starting running back injuries has created bedlam in my fantasy football Start/Sit article, but it has more complicated implications in daily fantasy where platforms frequently price handcuffs for their potential jumps to temporary RB1 roles. If you need advice on which backs to play and avoid, you came to the right […]

The running back injuries have been fast and furious to start the 2023 season. And with backs from Nick Chubb to Austin Ekeler, Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery and Justice Hill poised to miss Week 3 (if not much more of the year), there are plenty of opportunities to snag and start players from your waiver […]

After Week 1 slip-ups, the Bills, Chiefs and Seahawks reasserted their top offensive standings with wins in Week 2. But there was still plenty of abnormality in the Week 2 box scores, and that makes for waiver wire and trade opportunities.    This is the Touchdown Regression Model for Week 2. Each week, I calculate […]

Kenneth Gainwell and Diontae Johnson may have suffered two of the most important skill player injuries in Week 1, and each misses the main slate in Week 2 with their teams’ respective Thursday and Monday night games. But there is still a ton of DFS value out there.   This is the Underpriced and Overpriced […]

The Rams, Packers and Falcons set the standard for surprising Week 1 fantasy football stars. But single-game performances are not always sustainable, and I have potential breakout fantasy players Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Jordan Love and Tyler Allgeier ranked near the start/sit benchmark for Week 2. Read on to see which players land where.   […]

Touchdowns drive fantasy success and failure. And while there is a lot of noise in touchdown scoring, there is more than a fair bit of signal. Welcome to the Touchdown Regression Model. Each week, I will calculate expected touchdown totals based on where the field players throw, run and catch their touchdowns and use the […]

I am a longtime player and no-time winner of a friend’s annual NFL Survivor League. And thanks to that unimpeachable resume, FTN asked me to write a Survivor/Eliminator League advice column this week and probably never again. What follows are my 100% guaranteed winner picks for Week 1.   Baltimore Ravens -10 vs. Texans If […]

While they may not clear the starter benchmark in traditional fantasy leagues, Deon Jackson, Marvin Mims and Puka Nacua are some of my favorite DFS values in Week 1 thanks to projected workload increases from teammate injuries.    Welcome to my Under and Overpriced DFS Players column. Each week, I will run the weekly player […]

The Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce injuries might stick you with some tricky fantasy football start/sit decisions much earlier than you expected this season. But I am here to help. This year’s start/sit column leans on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections and should help you with whatever player versus player calls you need to make […]