Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

Week 8 was a quarterback injury apocalypse. And with traditional fantasy options like Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and even Joshua Dobbs unavailable, you may be surprised by the quarterbacks you should start in fantasy this week. My Start and Sit column for Week 9 can help you sort it out.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

Quarterbacks

6. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at KC

34.4-303-2.00-0.83 and 2.2-3-0.06 = 19.1

7. Lamar Jackson, BLT vs. SEA

29.2-225-1.29-0.53 and 7.2-37-0.34 = 18.8

8. Sam Howell, WAS at NE

38.2-266-1.64-0.99 and 2.4-13-0.06 = 16.9

Sam Howell may be the perfect representation of the differences between real and fantasy football. The fifth-round sophomore is a likely one-year starter with a -21.4% passing DVOA that ranks sixth worst among regular quarterbacks. But Howell ranks second with 308 pass attempts and tied for fifth with a 19% recent carry share, and that volume and rushing skew spurs his QB1 fantasy value.

9. Dak Prescott, DAL at PHI

33.7-249-1.58-0.88 and 2.8-13-0.07 = 16.2

Dak Prescott has averaged 3.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last five-plus seasons. His top 10 weekly ranking on the road in Philadelphia is a major indictment on the rest of the position with its myriad injuries.

10. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. TB

33.6-255-1.28-0.34 and 1.8-6-0.08 = 15.7

C.J. Stroud halted his perceived fantasy momentum with a 140-yard, no-touchdown letdown in Carolina in Week 8. But I blame a chunk of that slowdown on a run-friendlier gamescript against a Panthers opponent with the worst run defense in football and that never built even a touchdown lead. Stroud saw his best fantasy day in a two-score loss to the Colts that spurred a season-high 47 pass attempts. I wouldn’t expect that on Sunday. But I am projecting Stroud for a middling 33.6 pass attempts in Week 8, which is close to a positive 10-attempt regression from last week.

11. Jordan Love, GB vs. LA

33.6-215-1.61-1.04 and 2.7-18-0.11 = 15.4

Jordan Love is so far removed from his three-touchdown Week 1 and 2 performances that reporters are questioning his Packers franchise quarterback status. But Love’s 229-yard, one-touchdown result from Week 8 undersells the fantasy potential he showed with nine red zone pass attempts, tied for second most at the position. For the season, Love is tied for sixth with 46 red zone pass attempts, and he’s an above average rushing contributor. I would continue to start him in fantasy.

12. Geno Smith, SEA at BLT

33.0-241-1.55-0.79 and 2.5-6-0.05 = 15.2

Compared to this point last season, Geno Smith has nine more red zone pass attempts (45 versus 36) but four fewer passing touchdowns (9 versus 13). Expected touchdown luck is a major driver of fantasy success, but it also tends to regress. And I’m expecting a second-half Smith bounce back and would start him in fantasy in Week 9.

13. Baker Mayfield, TB at HST

35.1-229-1.44-0.70 and 3.0-11-0.03 = 14.8

Baker Mayfield has made a major fantasy stride increasing his pass attempts per game from 29.9 and 29.4 in his final Browns and Panthers seasons to 35.1 this year with the Bucs. Passing volume is critical for a traditional pocket passer in fantasy. But Mayfield is also firmly second tier with a modest 32 red zone pass attempts, and that lands him on the wrong side of the start/sit line for Week 9 even with the four teams on bye and myriad quarterback injuries.

14. Gardner Minshew, IND at CAR

36.9-258-1.37-0.96 and 1.5-5-0.07 = 14.8

Gardner Minshew has earned his top five pass attempts projection with 55- and 41-attempt efforts in multi-score Jaguars and Saints losses in the last three weeks. He and Sam Howell have a lot in common. But Minshew still trails Howell in my Week 9 quarterback rankings because of his relative lack of contributions as a runner. Minshew’s 7.0% projected carry share is fourth lowest among Week 9 starters.

15. Derek Carr, NO vs. CHI

36.5-247-1.39-0.69 and 1.2-2-0.02 = 14.4

You could read Derek Carr’s 5.81 expected touchdown shortfall as an indication that he is the unluckiest touchdown scorer at the position. But I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that Carr suffers from a relatively extreme 0.65 net stolen touchdowns with Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams in his backfield. Even in the top 10 with 282 pass attempts, Carr seems unlikely to threaten the top 10 in passing touchdowns this season. And that likely sabotages his QB1 fantasy potential.

16. Taylor Heinicke, ATL vs. MIN

32.1-231-1.09-0.74 and 2.8-13-0.10 = 13.9

The public will like that Taylor Heinicke is anyone other than Desmond Ridder. But Heinicke’s reputation won’t save him from his head coach Arthur Smith’s run-oriented Falcons offense that seems likely to spur a Ridder like top five net stolen touchdown shortfall and modest pass attempts total.

17. Will Levis, TEN at PIT

30.9-215-1.14-0.90 and 3.3-14-0.13 = 13.6

Levis could hardly have had a better professional debut than his 238-yard, four-touchdown, no-interception performance in Week 8. But the rookie threw his four touchdowns from 16, 33, 47, and 61 yards from the end zone and racked up a 3.88 expected touchdown surplus that is the highest by a quarterback in a game all season. Be sure to roster Levis in even the shallowest of formats. But I’ll need to see more to trust him as a fantasy QB1.

18. Daniel Jones, NYG at LV

31.9-201-0.89-0.77 and 4.8-25-0.13 = 13.3

19. Bryce Young, CAR vs. IND

35.4-203-1.31-0.71 and 1.6-9-0.04 = 13.1

Running Backs

15. Aaron Jones, GB vs. LA

10.2-49-0.25 and 4.4-3.3-27-0.20 = 11.9

16. Rachaad White, TB at HST

13.2-46-0.28 and 4.3-3.9-29-0.10 = 11.8

17. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. SEA

16.1-67-0.58 and 1.1-0.8-7-0.02 = 11.4

18. James Cook, BUF at CIN

13.0-62-0.29 and 2.6-2.0-18-0.07 = 11.2

19. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. WAS

11.8-43-0.32 and 4.8-3.6-24-0.08 = 11.0

20. Zack Moss, IND at CAR

12.1-57-0.39 and 2.6-2.1-15-0.07 = 10.9

21. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. IND

13.8-57-0.36 and 2.4-2.0-14-0.05 = 10.5

22. Darrell Henderson, LA at GB

12.2-47-0.38 and 2.5-1.9-15-0.07 = 9.9

23. Najee Harris, PIT vs. TEN

13.6-52-0.31 and 2.4-1.9-12-0.07 = 9.7

24. Brian Robinson, WAS at NE

11.9-48-0.38 and 1.8-1.4-11-0.06 = 9.2

25. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. ARZ

11.1-47-0.38 and 2.0-1.5-10-0.06 = 9.1

The Browns played Kareem Hunt, Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong 35%, 33% and 31% of Week 8 snaps, a disastrous split for fantasy if it continues. But I remain optimistic that Ford will return to his previous lead back role. He was uncertain to even play last Sunday after his Week 7 ankle injury. And Ford has earned his team RB1 keep with a Nick Chubb-like combination of power, elusiveness, and speed. I am projecting Ford for a 37.5% carry share that is 35th highest among running backs in Week 9.

26. Alexander Mattison, MIN at ATL

11.8-44-0.33 and 2.7-1.9-11-0.10 = 9.0

Alexander Mattison yielded a touchdown to his new teammate Cam Akers last Sunday. But while that might spur a narrative of a changing of the Vikings backfield guard, I don’t think anything has changed. Mattison and Akers played their typical 61% and 24% of snaps in Week 8. And while Mattison may owe some his second unluckiest 5.22 expected touchdown shortfall to his poor rushing efficiency, I wouldn’t expect Akers to fare better if their roles reversed. Neither back is averaging even 4.0 yards per attempt, and both have suffered top 10 percentages of contact in the backfield. 

27. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. TEN

8.0-34-0.18 and 4.2-3.4-25-0.07 = 9.0

Jaylen Warren has not eaten into his teammate Najee Harris’s early-season, early-down role. The duo has played eerily consistent 40-49% and 49-58% snap shares every week. But Warren has emerged as a similar fantasy flex option with his 14% target share that ranks him eighth among regular running backs this season.

28. Devin Singletary, HST vs. TB

10.2-44-0.30 and 2.4-1.8-12-0.06 = 8.6

Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary may seem like the Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren of the Texans. But unlike his Steelers counterpart, Pierce has yielded snaps in recent weeks. The sophomore back has slipped from between 54-59% snap shares in Weeks 3-5 to 33% and 43% shares on either side of a Week 7 bye. Singletary has played 11 more snaps those last two games. And while he has taken three fewer carries, Singletary has seen four more targets and could continue to earn more carries with his 26% broken tackle rate, tied for eighth best among backs with 25 or more carries with electric Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

29. Emari Demercado, ARZ at CLV

12.6-50-0.29 and 2.0-1.5-9-0.04 = 8.6

I can’t say I’m particularly enthusiastic about the Clayton Tune-led Cardinals on the road in Cleveland this week. But undrafted rookie running back Emari Demercado has asserted a clear lead back role with 62% snap and 41% carry shares over the last four weeks. And for me, that volume justifies a final flex starter spot even in an unappealing matchup.

30. Dameon Pierce, HST vs. TB

13.0-43-0.40 and 1.1-0.8-6-0.02 = 7.9

Dameon Pierce has maintained his expected touchdown edge with 5 carries inside the 5-yard line the last two games versus 0 for his teammate Devin Singletary. And while the backs’ 2.2 versus 2.6 yards after contact per attempt might advocate a future change, their respective 218- and 203-pound frames will likely secure Pierce’s preferred red zone role. I’m just unsure if that preference will lead to many touchdowns. Pierce has been unlucky with a 4.51 expected touchdown shortfall. But the Texans are closer to the middle of the pack with 3.96 adjusted line yards than the Steelers (3.70). It’s possible that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik blames Pierce for some of the team’s short touchdown troubles and will lean more on fullback Andrew Beck the rest of the season.

31. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. WAS

10.3-40-0.37 and 1.6-1.2-7-0.03 = 7.7

Ezekiel Elliott threatened a 50/50 split with 25 snaps versus 27 for Rhamondre Stevenson back in Week 5. But since, the former Cowboys star has faded to 38-42% snap shares. I am projecting Elliott for a 41.0% carry share that is 32nd highest among running backs in Week 9.

32. AJ Dillon, GB vs. LA

9.4-34-0.33 and 2.0-1.5-12-0.04 = 7.6

Aaron Jones played 50% of snaps for the first time since he injured his hamstring in Week 1. And while that increase did not drop AJ Dillon below a 50% snap share, it did drop him below my flex starter benchmark for Week 9. Dillon is not the same receiving threat as his more versatile teammate. He would need to score to justify a fantasy starter spot with even his modestly diminished 39.0% projected carry share, 33rd at the position.

33. D’Onta Foreman, CHI at NO

8.8-40-0.26 and 1.7-1.2-8-0.04 = 7.1

D’Onta Foreman seemed to parlay his three-touchdown outburst in Week 7 to a preferred early-down role in Week 8. But the veteran journeyman still split time with a 32% snap share versus 36% and 27% shares for Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans. With an undrafted rookie at quarterback, I wouldn’t bet on another multi-touchdown Foreman day, and I would sit him in fantasy this week.

34. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. ARZ

8.7-33-0.34 and 1.6-1.3-9-0.04 = 7.1

The yang to the yin of my Jerome Ford workload optimism, I am projecting Kareem Hunt for a 29.0% carry share that ranks a modest 41st at the position this week. Hunt strikes me as more of a deeper-league than traditional fantasy option.

35. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. MIN

11.2-40-0.29 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.02 = 7.1

36. Roschon Johnson, CHI at NO

6.1-27-0.20 and 2.6-2.1-14-0.07 = 6.7

37. Tyjae Spears, TEN at PIT

3.8-19-0.09 and 3.4-2.6-19-0.08 = 6.1

38. Justice Hill, BLT vs. SEA

5.2-24-0.17 and 2.3-2.0-11-0.04 = 5.8

39. Latavius Murray, BUF at CIN

5.9-24-0.27 and 1.6-1.3-9-0.04 = 5.8

40. Miles Sanders, CAR vs. IND

6.6-27-0.20 and 2.1-1.4-8-0.03 = 5.6

41. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. DAL

5.6-21-0.21 and 2.0-1.6-11-0.04 = 5.4

42. Antonio Gibson, WAS at NE

2.7-11-0.08 and 3.0-2.4-20-0.10 = 5.4

43. Royce Freeman, LA at GB

8.6-35-0.22 and 0.3-0.2-2-0.01 = 5.2

44. Cam Akers, MIN at ATL

6.7-24-0.20 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 5.1

Wide Receivers

19. Jordan Addison, MIN at ATL

6.9-4.7-62-0.40 = 11.0

20. Mike Evans, TB at HST

7.2-4.4-64-0.41 = 11.0

21. Gabe Davis, BUF at CIN

6.6-4.1-61-0.46 = 11.0

22. Chris Olave, NO vs. CHI

9.2-5.3-65-0.31 = 11.0

23. Chris Godwin, TB at HST

7.9-5.5-61-0.31 = 10.9

24. Tyler Lockett, SEA at BLT

7.1-5.0-59-0.40 = 10.8

25. George Pickens, PIT vs. TEN

7.5-4.1-68-0.29 = 10.7

26. Drake London, ATL vs. MIN

7.7-5.0-60-0.36 = 10.7

27. Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. TEN

8.8-5.3-61-0.31 = 10.6

28. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. SEA

7.6-5.4-59-0.29 = 10.6

29. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. NYG

7.1-4.8-53-0.40 = 10.1

30. Josh Downs, IND at CAR

7.1-5.0-58-0.29 = 10.1

31. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. DAL

6.9-4.7-59-0.30 = 10.1

32. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. ARZ

7.5-4.1-60-0.32 = 9.9

33. Tee Higgins, CIN vs. BUF

7.4-4.1-53-0.35 = 9.5

34. Michael Thomas, NO vs. CHI

7.3-4.6-53-0.31 = 9.4

35. Christian Watson, GB vs. LA

6.7-3.7-51-0.34 = 9.4

36. Marquise Brown, ARZ at CLV

7.9-4.4-49-0.34 = 9.3

37. Joshua Palmer, LAC at NYJ

6.6-4.1-54-0.27 = 9.1

Joshua Palmer may be a risky fantasy bet after he aggravated his knee injury in Week 8 and temporarily left the game. But the new No. 2 Chargers receiver has certainly earned his fantasy starter consideration on the field with a 20% target share since Mike Williams went down in Week 3 that ties him for 36th at the position. If Palmer plays, then I would start him.

38. Curtis Samuel, WAS at NE

5.9-4.5-45-0.29 = 9.1

Thanks to his rushing contributions and better average YAC, Curtis Samuel has outscored his more heralded teammate Jahan Dotson in fantasy this season. But Samuel also aggravated his turf toe injury last Sunday and is a threat to miss Week 9. Follow the injury news. And if Samuel ends up inactive, consider slot teammate Jamison Crowder as a potential fantasy replacement after his seven-target outburst last week.

39. Jahan Dotson, WAS at NE

6.8-4.1-46-0.34 = 8.7

Jahan Dotson may owe a chunk of eight-catch, 108-yard, one-touchdown Week 8 performance to Samuel’s injury-limited 19% snap share. But Commanders quarterback Sam Howell ranks second at the position with 308 pass attempts. There should be plenty of targets to go around.

40. Tank Dell, HST vs. TB

5.3-3.5-49-0.24 = 8.4

Tank Dell returned from his Week 5 concussion to play 78% of snaps in Week 8, just 1% shy of his previous season high from Week 2. I think he’s right back to his previous fantasy flex starter status. And he may see a bit of a boost from there in Week 9 with teammate Robert Woods expected to miss another week with his foot injury.

41. Rashee Rice, KC vs. MIA

5.1-3.7-46-0.32 = 8.3

Rashee Rice makes a compelling fantasy case with only his 10 red zone targets, tied for 12th most among wide receivers this season. But the Chiefs rookie has bolstered that case with a snap share increase from 30% in Week 5 to 49%, 59% and 61% shares the last three weeks. I am projecting Rice for a 15.0% target share that ties him for 58th at the position. And with a better than average chance to score, I would start Rice in fantasy this week.

42. K.J. Osborn, MIN at ATL

6.1-3.9-46-0.26 = 8.2

K.J. Osborn may not have his teammate Jordan Addison’s nose for the end zone. But the veteran receiver has seen a 20% target share with Justin Jefferson out since Week 6, tied for 40th highest at his position. I would trust that volume and start Osborn in fantasy this week even with an untested Jaren Hall at quarterback.

43. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. LA

6.7-3.7-39-0.36 = 7.9

Romeo Doubs has faded from a 26% target share the first four weeks to an 18% share the last four weeks with teammate Christian Watson back healthy and playing 80-plus-percent of snaps. But Doubs has similar averages of 1.8 and 1.7 red zone targets per game in both periods and is tied for fifth at the position with 12 red zone targets this season despite an early bye. I am projecting Doubs for a 9.8% touchdown rate that is second highest at the position, and I would start him in Week 9 and hope for a score.

44. Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. CHI

4.2-2.7-46-0.19 = 7.5

Rashid Shaheed has three explosive-catch touchdowns this season and three weeks with more than 70 yards receiving. I bet you can guess the relationship between those two statistics. Shaheed is a definite deep touchdown threat. But with a modest 13% target share this season, the sophomore receiver seems like the poor man’s Gabe Davis for fantasy.

45. Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. BUF

5.4-4.0-39-0.24 = 7.4

Tee Higgins has yet to play his traditional 80%-plus of snaps since he broke a rib back in Week 4. But those extra outside opportunities haven’t moved the needle much for slot receiver Tyler Boyd. I am projecting the veteran for a 15.5% target share that ties him for 54th at the position this week. Joe Burrow’s return to full health puts him close to the fantasy starter benchmark. But I would sit Boyd in Week 9.

46. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. ARZ

6.4-3.6-39-0.18 = 7.1

After the Donovan Peoples-Jones deadline trade, I bumped Elijah Moore up to a 22.0% projected target share, tied for 35th highest at the position this week. You can start him in a pinch. But I would prefer to wait to see whether rookie Cedric Tillman fills that outside receiver void and maybe also for Deshaun Watson to return to the lineup before I started Moore in fantasy.

47. Michael Wilson, ARZ at CLV

4.2-3.0-43-0.19 = 6.9

48. Demario Douglas, NE vs. WAS

5.1-3.2-38-0.18 = 6.8

49. Brandin Cooks, DAL at PHI

4.8-3.0-34-0.23 = 6.7

50. Jayden Reed, GB vs. LA

4.7-2.7-37-0.24 = 6.5

51. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at LV

4.8-3.6-33-0.16 = 6.2

52. Darius Slayton, NYG at LV

4.7-2.7-38-0.13 = 6.1

53. Rondale Moore, ARZ at CLV

4.0-2.7-24-0.11 = 6.0

54. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at BLT

4.7-3.0-31-0.22 = 6.0

Tight Ends

5. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. DAL

6.3-4.6-50-0.25 = 8.8

6. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at CIN

5.7-4.8-44-0.33 = 8.8

7. Cole Kmet, CHI at NO

6.0-4.9-46-0.27 = 8.7

8. David Njoku, CLV vs. ARZ

5.9-4.2-45-0.30 = 8.4

9. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. TB

6.4-3.9-39-0.38 = 8.2

10. Taysom Hill, NO vs. CHI

2.2-1.6-15-0.10 = 7.9

Thanks to a random-seeming eight-target Week 6, Taysom Hill has been even more confusing in 2023 than he usually is. But as I probably should have expected all season, Hill has settled into his usual red zone role that has him tied for 19th among all players with 16 red zone carries. Ignore Hill’s modest projected receiving line and start him in fantasy in Week 9.

11. Trey McBride, ARZ at CLV

5.8-4.2-43-0.23 = 7.7

Supercharged by teammate Zach Ertz’s quad injury, Trey McBride has trended up from a 27% snap share in Week 4 to 33%, 58%, 53% and 82% shares the last four weeks. I am projecting the sophomore for a 19.5% target share in Week 9 that is 10th highest at the position. And like for his teammate Emari Demercado, the volume makes McBride a fantasy starter despite a difficult Browns matchup this week.

12. Logan Thomas, WAS at NE

5.3-3.8-36-0.30 = 7.3

Logan Thomas would be another potential beneficiary of a Curtis Samuel injury absence. But the Commanders tight end has earned fantasy TE1 consideration on his own merits with a 17% target share over the last four weeks that ranks 14th highest at the position. With George Kittle, Sam LaPorta and Evan Engram on bye and Darren Waller at risk of an injury absence, Thomas looks like a Week 9 fantasy starter whether Samuel plays or not.

13. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. MIN

5.5-3.3-40-0.21 = 6.8

I knew Kyle Pitts‘ streak of three straight games with 40 or more receiving yards was too good to be true.

14. Jake Ferguson, DAL at PHI

4.5-3.4-33-0.28 = 6.7

Jake Ferguson finally made good on his position-leading 12 red zone targets with a touchdown in Week 8. I think he’s a decent bet for another in Week 9. But the new Cowboys tight end starter has a 15% target share this season that ties him for a modest 16th at the position. With just four teams on bye this week, you might have a better option.

15. Tyler Higbee, LA at GB

5.1-3.2-33-0.17 = 5.9

16. Gerald Everett, LAC at NYJ

4.1-3.1-29-0.25 = 5.9

17. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at PIT

4.9-3.3-30-0.18 = 5.7

18. Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. MIN

3.7-2.9-31-0.17 = 5.6

19. Luke Musgrave, GB vs. LA

4.0-3.0-28-0.18 = 5.3

20. Cade Otton, TB at HST

4.2-3.0-27-0.19 = 5.3

21. Hunter Henry, NE vs. WAS

3.8-2.6-28-0.18 = 5.2

22. Mike Gesicki, NE vs. WAS

3.4-2.4-23-0.18 = 4.6

23. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. LAC

3.6-2.5-26-0.13 = 4.6

24. Noah Fant, SEA at BLT

2.7-2.1-25-0.13 = 4.4

25. Donald Parham, LAC at NYJ

2.8-2.0-19-0.22 = 4.2

26. Irv Smith, CIN vs. BUF

3.5-2.4-19-0.16 = 4.1

27. Kylen Granson, IND at CAR

3.1-2.1-21-0.13 = 3.9

28. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. IND

2.7-1.8-17-0.18 = 3.7

29. Michael Mayer, LV vs. NYG

2.6-1.7-20-0.13 = 3.7

30. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. CHI

2.6-1.6-18-0.14 = 3.4